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Patriots 2023 Offseason Thread
cdj
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Posts: 14,001
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Post by cdj on Jan 10, 2023 19:10:41 GMT -5
Just realized Trumaine Edwards is a FA after this year… still just 24… wouldn’t be shocked if Bill went after him.:. They really need a LB like him and have the space… haven’t looked at Buffalo but they have a bunch of big contracts already - i have to imagine cap space is going to start getting tight there. I mean he’d be about as perfect an addition as possible I keep getting this feeling they trade for Nuk
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Post by texs31 on Jan 11, 2023 8:09:14 GMT -5
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Post by texs31 on Jan 11, 2023 9:58:19 GMT -5
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 11, 2023 11:36:33 GMT -5
What happened with Edmunds this year? His role clearly shifted when looking at his defensive passing numbers, his depth of target was almost cut in half. After two years allowing a 100 plus QB rating and 6 TDs he got a lot better. Did he go from MLB to OLB or something like that? Football Refrence had him for 4 years as MLB, then last year just LB. He's certainly interesting if he's finally figured things out. His first four years he was basically just an athlete with a low football IQ. This year everything improved, much better pass defending numbers and his miss tackles went way down. Just interested in what his role was.
After a quick look it's a very good free agent LB class.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 11, 2023 13:13:12 GMT -5
It's the NFL, you have enough cap space to sign Tom Brady and do a bunch of things if you want too. It's just going to create dead money in the future.
I actually think with Tom Brady you can be a true title contender. Getting Tom Brady would mean guys want to play with him, they'd take discounts to play with him. Last years team with an OL that's fixed and a few other things like special teams would be a true contender in my book. You'd need a lot to go right, like McCourty not retiring, nail another good draft, get guys to take some discounts, etc.
I'd say one of the best things for Mac Jones development would be studying Tom Brady for a year. Tom Brady will insert an offense for him, weapons for him and those will work well with Mac Jones.
I'd also say talent at WR isn't everything for Brady. Look at Bucs, two #1 type WRs and the offense was crap. OL wasn't great, yet biggest issue was inability to run. Then a bad defense. It is funny how Brady and Mac Jones look a lot different leading an offense with a great rushing attack versus not having one.
I certainly understand people wanting to move on. Yet if you have the chance for even just one more championship run with Brady, you take it in my book. Nevermind you can make the case you'd be high pointing the talent. Anyone truly believe you're resigning all of Henry, Duggar, Onwenu and Uche?
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Post by texs31 on Jan 11, 2023 14:54:04 GMT -5
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Post by texs31 on Jan 12, 2023 12:35:05 GMT -5
So it sounds like (per a NESN report) there is (or, at least, was) a rift between BB and Mac Jones caused by Mac going outside the organization asking for help. I think we all know that is a no-no for Bill.
We'll see if that's something that their relationship can recover from.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 12, 2023 19:30:31 GMT -5
Patriots did a press release saying they are in discussions to keep Mayo around.
That they would announce those discussions is, as many of the local and national writers are putting it, unprecedented for the Pats.
EDIT Oh yeah. And not to be overlooked, they announced they will begin interviewing OCs next week as well.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 12, 2023 21:59:51 GMT -5
Well I think that explains why Zappe a 4th round rookie QB looked so comfortable in the offense so quickly and Mac Jones didn't. One gave it his all even if it wasn't the best coaching, then you have Mac Jones checking out. I'm not okay with that, I don't care what you think about the coaching. Go to Bill, heck go to the owner. You don't go against the team and go outside the organization. I'm rather shocked Bill didn't bench him and fully explains his end of year take on Mac Jones. That's one of the biggest acts of going against Bill I can ever remember. Jamie Collins was traded mid season for not listening to coaches and free lancing on D.
They changed the offense like 4 times, so they were more than willing to make changes and I'm certain Mac Jones had a big say. I mean game after he complained about short passes, they aired it out the next game. So instead of working his Butt off trying to help find solutions, he was going rogue.
Mac Jones is suppose to be the leader of the offense and the team.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jan 12, 2023 22:49:07 GMT -5
Looks like there keeping Mayo than you Mr Kraft for stepping in . Enough is enough. Get a real OC.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,001
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Post by cdj on Jan 13, 2023 13:28:32 GMT -5
Damn, almost like they should’ve just gotten a real OC last year
What a waste of a year
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 13, 2023 14:26:28 GMT -5
patriotswire.usatoday.com/lists/full-7-round-patriots-2023-mock-draft-1-0/Now I have no clue if those guys are good value and if this even makes sense. Going to take me a few months to just get a sense of this draft class. It's missing our two comp picks 3rd/4th and a 6th. Yet it attacks needs currently and in the future. 3 OL guys, outside CB, slot WR, big blocking TE, and developmental athletic rusher. Add in a punter with one of those comp picks and it's a darn good practical mock draft this early. Yeah I'd want a LB and FS also, yet you can never address everything in the draft. Rest will have to be free agency. Which is rather weak on OTs. Yet would put a lot of pressure on a 4th round pick and Nixon, especially if you lose Meyers at WR. Free Agent class has LBs and FSs in rather good amounts. On another note, most of practice squad signed future contracts. Yet Lynn Bowden and McGrone didn't, which is highly disappointing.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 13, 2023 16:17:37 GMT -5
McGrone was signed away, by the Colts, during the season.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 13, 2023 18:47:44 GMT -5
Well that sucks, takes away your one young upside athletic LB.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 14, 2023 10:15:00 GMT -5
I still can't believe Kraft trusts Belichick with the draft after his abysmal record over the last 15 or so years. He refuses to change his process or get help - or if he has, he's evaluated the wrong parts of the process to change and/or gotten the wrong help.
I'm at the point where I'd be glad if they traded their first and second round picks every year for established NFL talent in positions of need, esp WR, OL and LB.
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Post by jmei on Jan 14, 2023 10:40:13 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Jan 14, 2023 11:50:55 GMT -5
I question the metrics used in this analysis. Before 10 or so years ago, they were finishing at the top of the league with their record, yet still hitting home runs with their late-in-the-round 1st-3rd picks. These included Rob Gronkowski, Devin McCourty, Julian Edelman, Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower (and we can even throw Aaron Hernandez in here if we just look at on-field performance). Even looking at the last few years, there seem to be more high round misses than hits. 2015 - Malcolm Brown 1st (solid if inconsistent); Jordan Richards 2nd 2016 - No 1st, 2nd Chandler Jones; Did better in the 3rd with Thuney, who is a star. 2017 - Traded pick for Brandon Cooks, who was traded at the end of the year for a 1st and 6th. That 1st turned into Sony Michel, who was gone in 2 years for a 5th and 6th round pick; 2nd round was Kony Ealy (released in training camp). 2018 - Isaiah Wynn (uneven role player) and Michel; Round 2 Duke Dawson (traded after 1 season never played a regular season snap). 2019 - 1st K'Neal Harry. 2nd B Joejuan Williams. 2020 - Trade 1st for 2nd round pick; 2nd Duggar and Uche - finally some solid picks. 2021 - 1st Mac Jones. Solid pick - could be a solid top 10 QB with competent Offensive Line and an actual offensive coordinator who works to his strength; 2nd Christian Barmore - solid player. Actually the homerun or at least stand-up triple in this draft may have been Stevenson in the 4th round. 2022 - 1st Cole Strange (roller coaster first year); 2nd Tyquan Thorton (5.5 yds a catch, 2 catches a game ave.). I don't have time to do a full draft analysis, but when you miss this often on your first and second rounders, you are missing on the "money" part of the draft. I credit Belichick with a lot of positives, but in the last several years, this area has been substandard.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,001
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Post by cdj on Jan 14, 2023 11:54:22 GMT -5
I question the metrics used in this analysis. Before 10 or so years ago, they were finishing at the top of the league with their record, yet still hitting home runs with their late-in-the-round 1st-3rd picks. These included Rob Gronkowski, Devin McCourty, Julian Edelman, Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower (and we can even throw Aaron Hernandez in here if we just look at on-field performance). Even looking at the last few years, there seem to be more high round misses than hits. 2015 - Malcolm Brown 1st (solid if inconsistent); Jordan Richards 2nd 2016 - No 1st, 2nd Chandler Jones; Did better in the 3rd with Thuney, who is a star. 2017 - Traded pick for Brandon Cooks, who was traded at the end of the year for a 1st and 6th. That 1st turned into Sony Michel, who was gone in 2 years for a 5th and 6th round pick; 2nd round was Kony Ealy (released in training camp). 2018 - Isaiah Wynn (uneven role player) and Michel; Round 2 Duke Dawson (traded after 1 season never played a regular season snap). 2019 - 1st K'Neal Harry. 2nd B Joejuan Williams. 2020 - Trade 1st for 2nd round pick; 2nd Duggar and Uche - finally some solid picks. 2021 - 1st Mac Jones. Solid pick - could be a solid top 10 QB with competent Offensive Line and an actual offensive coordinator who works to his strength; 2nd Christian Barmore - solid player. Actually the homerun or at least stand-up triple in this draft may have been Stevenson in the 4th round. 2022 - 1st Cole Strange (roller coaster first year); 2nd Tyquan Thorton (5.5 yds a catch, 2 catches a game ave.). I don't have time to do a full draft analysis, but when you miss this often on your first and second rounders, you are missing on the "money" part of the draft. I credit Belichick with a lot of positives, but in the last several years, this area has been substandard. Kony Ealy- wasn’t he involved in a pick swap? Your post makes it seem like we moved a 2nd for him straight up. Although I just did some research and that pick they got with him was used on Derek Rivers, so it might as well have been a 2nd straight up lol They still do pretty well late in the draft. Onwenu was probably the best find of them all. Wise was another good one. They’ve definitely had high profile misses but I’d imagine if you look across football most teams do, and that’s how we end up in 7th
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 14, 2023 14:32:33 GMT -5
www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-hightheriotreport.com/more-than-50-of-first-round-picks-are-busts-and-other-terrifying-draft-statistics/You need to understand the bust rates and how basically in any given draft you have only 15-30 above average players. First round picks bust at a 50% rate and it just goes down from there. That chart isn't upgraded after this year, lists Uche as worst, he just had a pro bowl type season. You see why teams love OT in first round, best success rate. You see why taking CBs and WRs is a gamble. Nevermind top half of first round has much better success rates compared to bottom half of first round. Last 3 years Duggar and Uche, Jones and Barmore, Strange and Thornton. You nailed 2020 and 2021, if you're asking for more then you except too much. I think Strange turns into a good player, he just needed time coming from a small school. I've seen enough for Thornton to see the upside, he wasn't used in a advanced pro style offense running a ton of different routes. I still be a Robby Anderson type WR with more upside. Kinda a weird time to be picking on Bill drafting top two rounds. You also see why he trades down and gets more picks, which gives you a better chance at hitting on guys. Yet also increases the chances of more busts and negative value. I know it was a poor season, yet I see Bill currently on a hot streak drafting and yet some want him stripped of drafting duties. He's not perfect, I hate how he can leave value on the table sometimes. Yet he's on a hot streak of drafting impactful players and good depth pieces. He needs to work on his free agent signings, contract extensions, trades, roster building, etc much more than his drafting. Also the ESPN chart only seems to look at players drafted, so your undrafted guys like Butler, Andrews, Meyers, Jackson, etc aren't included. Which is huge.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jan 14, 2023 15:19:09 GMT -5
Good news Mayo turned down the interview with the Panthers. They musta said things that he likes to hear. I want people to stay. They have a lot of work to do on Offense. Mayo musta of got the Defensive coordinator or Dante old job assistant head coach.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 14, 2023 15:40:37 GMT -5
Overall they've done great, but if I'm reading the Patriots write-up correctly it reinforces and quantifies the argument against Bill in that he's terrible at drafting rounds 1-3 (particularly round 2) but makes up for it by being prophetic in rounds 4-6. It's an interesting data point, for whatever it's worth, but I don't think it changes the narrative about Bill's strengths/weaknesses at all. Edit: Also, it shows that the 2017-2021 draft classes all had negative value according to CAVOE so any complaints about Bill's recent draft acumen are fully justified. And hence my contention that he should trade picks 1 & 2 for positions of need. They seem to be much better at judging current NFL talent.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,001
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Post by cdj on Jan 14, 2023 16:31:43 GMT -5
Mayo might be getting groomed to take over for BB at this rate
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Post by GyIantosca on Jan 14, 2023 16:42:39 GMT -5
Mayo might be getting groomed to take over for BB at this rate CDJ, I just checked out who might interest the Pats on Offense.They named 5. 1 Bill Obrien, 2. Klinsbury,3.Zac Robinson, 4. Nike Caley. 5. Charlie Wiess JR. I didnt even know he is a co-offensive coordinator under Lane kiffen. at Ole Miss. Interesting. If they go with Obrien he isnt going to stay for a long time. They also need a structure next in line. I cant believe BB did this I know we lost a lot but coach what are you doing? Hire some people . You were right this year could of been avoided. I hate questioning BB. But what are you doing Brady goes Cam sucked. Bill chasing Shula. He did this all himself.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jan 14, 2023 16:45:31 GMT -5
Overall they've done great, but if I'm reading the Patriots write-up correctly it reinforces and quantifies the argument against Bill in that he's terrible at drafting rounds 1-3 (particularly round 2) but makes up for it by being prophetic in rounds 4-6. It's an interesting data point, for whatever it's worth, but I don't think it changes the narrative about Bill's strengths/weaknesses at all. Edit: Also, it shows that the 2017-2020 draft classes all had negative value according to CAVOE so any complaints about Bill's recent draft acumen are fully justified. Thats another problem I have with him, He never listen to his scouts. He went off the track. IF I was the coach and I can not pick a good reciever I would find a guy who can. There's no shame in having help. No one is great at everything.
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Post by jmei on Jan 14, 2023 17:43:07 GMT -5
They have definitely had some bad drafts lately, but, over a larger sample size, the idea that Belichick is terrible at the draft is laughable and frankly credibility destroying.
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