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Patriots 2023 Offseason Thread
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Post by texs31 on Jan 15, 2023 13:09:38 GMT -5
Uhhh. That has been said MULTIPLE TIMES on the various Patriot boards by posters here.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 15, 2023 13:16:28 GMT -5
www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-hightheriotreport.com/more-than-50-of-first-round-picks-are-busts-and-other-terrifying-draft-statistics/You need to understand the bust rates and how basically in any given draft you have only 15-30 above average players. First round picks bust at a 50% rate and it just goes down from there. That chart isn't upgraded after this year, lists Uche as worst, he just had a pro bowl type season. You see why teams love OT in first round, best success rate. You see why taking CBs and WRs is a gamble. Nevermind top half of first round has much better success rates compared to bottom half of first round. Last 3 years Duggar and Uche, Jones and Barmore, Strange and Thornton. You nailed 2020 and 2021, if you're asking for more then you except too much. I think Strange turns into a good player, he just needed time coming from a small school. I've seen enough for Thornton to see the upside, he wasn't used in a advanced pro style offense running a ton of different routes. I still be a Robby Anderson type WR with more upside. Kinda a weird time to be picking on Bill drafting top two rounds. You also see why he trades down and gets more picks, which gives you a better chance at hitting on guys. Yet also increases the chances of more busts and negative value. I know it was a poor season, yet I see Bill currently on a hot streak drafting and yet some want him stripped of drafting duties. He's not perfect, I hate how he can leave value on the table sometimes. Yet he's on a hot streak of drafting impactful players and good depth pieces. He needs to work on his free agent signings, contract extensions, trades, roster building, etc much more than his drafting. Also the ESPN chart only seems to look at players drafted, so your undrafted guys like Butler, Andrews, Meyers, Jackson, etc aren't included. Which is huge. Someone posted data, I responded to the data. I didn't make the original post, if you don't like the timing take it up with them. It's also not my data, if you don't like their process or what they understand about bust rates take it up with them. The data says that the Patriots, by virtue of their 2012-2021 CAVOE data, are the 7th best team in terms of draft ability. If in your opinion that says they're good at drafting players then fine. However, if you were to analyze that same data set from 2017-2021, it says that the Patriots are the 4th worst team in terms of draft ability. Do with that data what you want, but that is the data and to me it illustrates how much they've stunk at drafting lately. If you see something else feel free to elaborate. Raiders -76.1 Jets -74 Bengals -54.4 Patriots -49
Jaguars -46.8 Broncos -39.9 Packers -31.5 Lions -30.5 Seahawks -29.1 Cardinals -24.7 Giants -14.2 Commanders -11.6 Panthers -10.3 Browns -3.6 Falcons -3.5 Titans -3 Eagles 6.9 Texans 11.7 Vikings 12.8 Dolphins 15.9 Bucks 18.5 Cowboys 23.4 49ers 39 Rams 40.3 Bears 42.5 Chargers 45.5 Colts 58.2 Steelers 58.6 Chiefs 60.2 Saints 77.1 Ravens 94.3 Bills 126.6 FWIW, I don't really want to relitigate previous drafts ad nauseam but someone brought up a data set and I felt they came to the wrong conclusion based on the data set so I pointed it out. I was speaking in general not calling anyone out. There's a reason they did ten years, the more time you give a draft class to grade it the better. General rule of thumb is 4 years is it not? That's especially true with Bill who brings players along slowly and builds deep teams. There's a massive difference in the last 5 years, compared to the 2020-2022. Uche is listed as worst pick, that's highly debatable even before this season given Keene. Who's out of football. Yet their grade for Uche in 2022 is 2, same as 2021. Yeah that's criminal. That's equal to Cajuste value, Jennings was worth 3. Uche was one of PFF highest graded players. He went from bust to one of the best young pass rushers in football. No rational person is rating Uche negative. I think we need to just use common sense. Over the last 3 years you've selected Duggar, Uche and Barmore in the 2nd round. Thornton is a wait and see, I'd hope no one is writing off a rookie WR in year one that showed the ability to get open and make some plays. Not many teams could have possibly done better. I'd also point out Bill trading down to get more picks is a huge reason why we do so well later in draft. Trade down to get Duggar, trade up to get Uche. Last year trade down in third to get a 4th which was Zappe and a 3rd next year. That's better than just taking Zappe in the third is it not? Yet in this system more picks can give you more negative value. There were certainly some disappointing draft classes, yet those have passed and were in epic territory now.
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Post by jmei on Jan 15, 2023 14:03:40 GMT -5
They have definitely had some bad drafts lately, but, over a larger sample size, the idea that Belichick is terrible at the draft is laughable and frankly credibility destroying. Nobody said that. In fact, if you're referring to me, I said overall they've been great and referred to Belichick as "prophetic". That said, the data you provided does tell a tale of two halves. 2012-2016 was amazing, especially considering that they managed to be one of the best teams at drafting while consistently having one of the last picks in each round. 2017-2021 paints a completely different picture where they were one of the worst teams at drafting according to this CAVOE metric. Some of this can be attributed to the fact that they were still picking toward the very last pick in each round (with the exception of 2021) but I doubt that's the full story. 2019 was particularly terrible not only because they drafted N'Keal Harry but because they chose not to draft Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, Mercole Hardman, DK Metcalf, Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin, or even Hunter Renfroe. The data you provided quantifies most people's disappointment, by their measure it was the second worst draft of any team in 2019. It would be interesting to discuss what happened that may have caused the change in the two halves, I would assume that there were possibly some front office or coaching changes that may have cause the shift but it could be something else too. It would be significantly less interesting to read another sh*tpost about credibility. I have other thoughts about their drafting, mostly positive, but the context of the statements were the data you provided and it says what it says. Uh, guidas said a page back that Belichick’s draft record is so bad over the last 15 years that he should have that responsibility taken away from him. That’s what I’m replying to.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jan 15, 2023 18:57:27 GMT -5
I hope one day Mac Jones can be Kirk Cousins good.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 15, 2023 22:24:39 GMT -5
I don't, he needs to be better. Much clutch than Cousins, who just lost to Daniel Jones with elite weapons. Two drives down by a touchdown and nothing. All while not being sacked once.
I get it, Cousins puts up stats and can win you games. Yet age 34 and he's 1-3 during playoffs and he's had elite weapons for years. He's a disappointment at this point, you keep waiting for him to take it up a notch. He never does.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jan 16, 2023 0:24:34 GMT -5
Would be nice if we could figure out how to sell off on assets. With 45M+ in bad contracts/dead cap next year it would seem like a great year to do that. Competing for a SB with that and Mac Jones at QB seems like a fool’s errand to me.
Selling off seemed to work pretty well for the Seahawks.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jan 16, 2023 16:07:27 GMT -5
They have definitely had some bad drafts lately, but, over a larger sample size, the idea that Belichick is terrible at the draft is laughable and frankly credibility destroying. He is not terrible but there are a couple of positions I wish he would change how he scouts them or Lean on another voice. You can not tell me he is perfect t every position drafting.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jan 16, 2023 16:11:35 GMT -5
I also feel he has a different attitude towards the draft. This is not a bad thing. Ever since he can sign undrafted kids and get excellent production. I feel he doesn’t use the draft like the other coach’s . To me he wants a kid in 1st round. That has a 3rd grade but he doesn’t see it that way. He gets an undrafted corner back next thing you know he is starting out there . Playing excellent.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jan 16, 2023 16:23:44 GMT -5
The other thing that kind of bothers me , I mentioned this. Couple of times I still don’t know why over the years the coaching staff got smaller and smaller. From what I understand BB became more hands on all over when needed. I didn’t mind him bringing back judge and Patricia but I thought they were going to there natural positions.
They team knew Mcdaniels was going to leave sooner or later . The last 2 years he didn’t officially have a defensive coordinator . You can’t keep Mayo on ice. He did the same this season on offense. When Dante was here I wonder why he didn’t have someone behind him picking his brain. Brian Flores took a lot of guys to Miami. Mcdaniels took a few also.
He plans for certain players to leave and replace them . This is what I wanted him to do when he lost coaches. He didn’t . I think the Pats have the smallest staff. It’s shows. I know BB doesn’t want to go down like this.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jan 17, 2023 12:30:28 GMT -5
They need to be patient for a year with 35M stuck to Jonnu and Henry. Then in 2024 they can focus on SB contention again.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 18, 2023 11:21:57 GMT -5
Pats interviewing Nick Caley (their TE coach) today for OC position. Also, they are asking for permission to interview Keenan McCardell for the same role.
Per Pelissero
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 18, 2023 12:12:19 GMT -5
Come on now lumping Jonnu and Henry together is crazy. Jonnu sucks and Mac has zero chemistry with him. Trade him or cut him June 1st. Henry is a good player, one year removed from being a league wide top 10 TE, something he's done multiple times. Mac has great chemistry with him. Good time to work out an extension with him. If you fix the offense his numbers will increase, can't say that with Jonnu.
The Patriots have top 8 cap space, with the salary cap getting ready to explode over the next two years. You have 9 draft picks already.
A few big keys that will make a huge difference, like McCourty dead money or the same cap it with him coming back. Smaller scale what happens with Bailey.
So I certainly don't understand the punt next year because of Jonnu and Henry.
Now I'm not against selling off an asset if the return is right. I've mentioned Uche before, yet I'd rather they do extension with Henry, Onwenu, Duggar and Uche if they can. Those talks could make it easy to determine who you might want to look at trading. Yet Bill is old and I fully believe he's going crazy hard to win next year. It can make sense if he signs the right guys given the up coming cap explosion.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 18, 2023 15:59:22 GMT -5
While it's hard to disagree with UMass' assessment of Jonnu, I go back and forth on what to do about it, tbh.
If you cut him before Jun 1, it actually costs you Cap Space (1.8M) and results in a pretty big Dead Money hit (19M). Which means you want to designate it as a post-Jun 1 move (4.5m in savings, 12.7 in dead). But I would assume that means the space isn't really of use to you until then so it's not adding to what you can do in Free Agency (or trade season). Part of me feels like, given the space we have (and other means to create more), we should just keep him and see what a new OC can do with him.
Of course, the other part of me realizes this puts me as Example #1 of the Sunk Cost Fallacy so . . . yeah.
Looking at OTC's Patriots Page, I think Patriots can get around 20M by extending Judon, Henry and Brown (again, I'm nervous about having to replace all 3 OTs so I'm keeping Brown, just want to lower the number).
If the plan is to upgrade WR and CB in Free Agency (which I think makes sense), then Chad Graff's idea of cutting Parker and Mills makes some sense. I'm pretty sure they can lower McCourty's number again, like they did last year, if he wants to keep playing (which I hope he does). Depending on the grievance, I'd be shocked if they don't get out of Bailey's cap # too.
Point is, they can have some 60m in Cap Space heading to the offseason. Trade for a WR (Hopkins who could then lower his 19M hit via an extension), Draft an OT in the 1st and, somehow (probably an older vet) upgrade at Boundary CB. Get a Slot (if you don't like Meyers, or he's too expensive, find someone else). Bring back Jones to work against opposing Zs. Draft future options at LB, TE, CB, FS, etc.
That's just a rough blueprint and probably rife with holes but . . .
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Post by texs31 on Jan 18, 2023 16:39:29 GMT -5
Pats interviewed Adrian Klemm for OC job.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 18, 2023 16:50:43 GMT -5
NE also signed Olakunle Fatukasi, LB to a Futures Deal per reports. 13 GP for TB last year, all but 1 snap on STs.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 18, 2023 21:40:22 GMT -5
Pats interviewed Adrian Klemm for OC job. Everything wrong with the Rooney rule!
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 18, 2023 21:42:55 GMT -5
With Jonnu Smith I'd ask where's the upside? I'm getting rid of him to help the next OC, he's been an issue for both McDaniels and MP.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jan 18, 2023 22:24:15 GMT -5
Oh man Bedard on 98.5 Tuesday pretty much nailed it. He also did the 3 up and 3 down. I didn’t know Duggar was very one dimensional . He called him the Jamie Collins of the DB’S. He ripped Bailey and obvious Wynn that clown how many drives did he kill.
The 3 best one Judon yes. Uche , and Marcus Jones awesome pick. I adding Mazz 3 , Owenue, Stevenson. They both agreed on Judon.
Bedard was all over BB. He made a lot of sense , BB knew Mcdaniels was going to go one year in the future why not groom a replacement. Or have a better plan. Amen
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jan 18, 2023 22:42:13 GMT -5
Dugger one dimensional? Lol, lmao. I certainly don’t see that. Guy lines up everywhere and does a lot of different things
And is being the Jamie Collins of DB even a bad thing? Is Bedard trying to crap on a LB that’s had a successful decade+ long career? He can eff off
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Post by texs31 on Jan 19, 2023 8:46:28 GMT -5
With Jonnu Smith I'd ask where's the upside? I'm getting rid of him to help the next OC, he's been an issue for both McDaniels and MP. To be clear, there isn't really a football reason to keep him. I'm just trying to rationalize my decision to not take a huge dead cap hit. - We want NE to spend their cap room this offseason (Trades, FAs, Extensions) - NE often structures deals such that their 1st year hit is smaller with the larger hits picking up in year 2 or beyond - Because of this, pushing dead money into those years concerns me As you said (I think) when the redo was completed, the contract is almost impossible to get off of without considerably hampering yourself. I just don't think that it has changed so . . .
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Post by jmei on Jan 19, 2023 10:13:10 GMT -5
Since you're not getting any meaningful cap relief by cutting him (a post-June 1 cut really just spreads the pain over multiple years), the only question is whether Jonnu Smith is better an a minimum salary type. Hard to argue that he's that bad even with his struggles to date.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 19, 2023 12:58:40 GMT -5
I hate that way of looking at Jonnu, it's opportunity costs. Him and Henry don't mix. It's him playing over other guys that can help you more. You have a limited amount of roster spaces and players on the field. Example he's not a better receiving option than Bourne and his crappy blocking can easily be upgraded. Given his huge salary OC are always going to try to find a role. Heck Bill is likely to encourage it trying to get something of value from his worst free agent signing every.
Mac Jones has zero chemistry with him. Mac Jones thrives with a good running game and needs good blocking. You are better off with a blocking TE, Fullback or extra OT over him. As far a receiving almost anyone is better, I'll take Tre Nixon who didn't see the field last year over him all day long.
So no Junno Smith isn't better than a minimum salary guy. Not only that, I'd take the full cap hit right now and argue you're better off even if it costs you close to 2 million in cap space.
I say do June 1st so you can use the extra space for in season moves and bonuses, not for free agents. You always need to leave cap space available, you can't spend every dollar. I'd see a point if you're like MP sucks let's see what another OC can do. Yet McDaniels couldn't find a role for him and basically benched him. Why? He realized you were better without him on the field!
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Post by texs31 on Jan 19, 2023 14:23:51 GMT -5
I hate that it seems like I'm now defending Jonnu but, in fairness, when Josh had him he missed a SIGNIFICANT amount of time in camp. And we all know Bill's (and, therefore, his staff's) thoughts on availability.
So all we can honestly say is "he realized you were better without a new TE that missed so much camp". Nothing more. Nothing less.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 19, 2023 14:24:37 GMT -5
Meanwhile, O'Brien interviewed today. Wonder how many more they'll bring in but 10 teams now need OCs so they may need to jump to get their guy.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jan 19, 2023 15:36:28 GMT -5
Meanwhile, O'Brien interviewed today. Wonder how many more they'll bring in but 10 teams now need OCs so they may need to jump to get their guy. Lots of WR coaches coming through (including former players). I wonder if they make two hires to add some young blood (if BOB is the choice); they can make one a Passing Game Coordinator and I'd think it could count as a promotion.
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