Kiké Hernández in 2023

If he has a 2021 season, he could be in line for a big payday. As mentioned, there aren't many right handed batter in FA next year, and there are very few centerfielders.

If he has a 2021 season and shows he can do that when healthy 2 out of the last 3 years I see no reason not to give him a QO

Yeah, as much I want to dream on the next CF, Kiké might be the safest and easiest solution to the problem the next 3 years.

The problem is the age, and now the health too. If he could be what he was in LA for the next 3 years (not good at hitting RHP, lefty masher), while playing great defense in CF, then that isn't terrible.

The problem with Rafaela is that we still don't even know who he is as a hitter. Had a hot year last year with the bat, but he could hit .200 in AA this year and it wouldn't surprise me. All long-term solutions for Rafaela stepping in by 2024 get thrown out the door at that point.

Anything's possible but I dont think Rafaels will regress that badly. His approach needs work and could easily prevent him from being more than a 9th place hitter but his defense is already major league and then some. I can't expect Kiké to continue to excel defensively and he's already had injuries that have hindered his offense, not that he has been spectacular other than the 2nd half 2021. I suspect the Sox will need Rafaela sooner than later, but he'll have to hit his way up.

I hear what you’re saying runner, but I’m not sure I would say there’s helium exactly. There have actually been reports that while they are more willing to part with him than Casas, Bello, Mayer, that they really don’t want to trade him. I think they would have to be extremely excited with the return.

To me, all signs do point to the Red Sox having some real faith he can produce enough with the bat to be able to be the club’s starting CF in 2024 and beyond. Of course he might flame out but to me it’s clear they are pretty excited and they must feel like they can work with his plus bat to ball skills and cut the chase rate enough to be able to provide some real value.

I personally do feel like Rafaela is exciting enough that I am reticent to move him. Even though I know he is our only feasible, really useful chip right now. It’s been way too long since we have produced a good MLB outfielder and chase rate notwithstanding he looks like he could be it. If I am going to bet on a guy to bring down an ugly chase rate, it would be the guy who has shown huge improvements year after year and has elite bat to ball skills

Well in 2019 he put up a 0.7 fWAR; in 2020 in a 60 game season he was 0.1 fWAR (so 0.3 if you extrapolate out), in 2021 he was 3.9 fWAR - a career year and in 2022 he was 0.5 fWAR.

So if you're looking for a repeat of 2021, he will have to spend most of his time in CF where his defensive metrics play better than his SS work, and he'd have to play absolutely out of his mind again and defy the aging curve. So, if an evaluator thought they could get average or average to occasional plus D from him in CF and he could somehow get a .330+ OBP and 20 HRs, yeah, that would be worth $20-25M AAV a year. But again, his age and unevenness works against that (along with needing another career year, which is unlikely).

I have a feeling they stay under in 2024 and blow through in 2025 with Devers, Bello, Casas, Whitlock, Mayer core

I certainly hope Yoshida is a part of the core for the next 5 seasons or his contract is going to be a boat anchor to their payroll. 

www.bostonglobe.com/2023/02/12/sports/Kiké-hernandez-red-sox/

A lot of things in this piece so go read it - this was certainly interesting:

“For the Sox, Hernández represents a potential key in the team’s hopes of defying modest expectations. The final three-plus months of 2021, he was one of the top all-around performers in the American League, ranking fifth in Fangraphs’ WAR after June 27, then delivering an incredible postseason performance (.408/.423/.837 with 5 homers).

If he can become more consistent — a focus of both his swing work (he’s eliminated his leg kick and repositioned his hands for a more compact swing) and training — the Sox believe he could be a difference-maker.

“His ceiling’s elite,” said Fatse. “At his best, he’s a very dynamic guy on both sides of the ball. … He can get on base, he knows the strike zone, and when he’s going really well, he’s impacting the ball to all fields. He can be a special player.””

Kiké has some concerning offensive numbers which may be signs of diminished skills (due to age):
- ISO: .110; this is after a .116 ISO in 2022 which was his previous career low (career: .174)
- Average Exit Velocity: 87.6; set his previous career low of 87.8 in 2022 (career: 89)
- Hard Hit%: 32.8; this would be a career low, after 35% in 2022, the second lowest of his career (career: 37.8%)
- Barrel%: 2.5: another career low after 2022 5.8%, which was the second lowest of his career (career: 6.3%)
- Oppo%: 27.9; highest of career aside from truncated rookie season (career: 23.5%)

Along with diminished arm strength and speed (26.5 ft/sec sprint speed; lowest of career) and it seems that he has gotten old. He still works solid at-bats and can play multiple positions, and is therefore viable as a utility player, but I don't think he should be looked at as a starter, or super-utility guy, any longer.

(he's been getting under pitches at an extreme career high of 39.3%; not sure if that's age related or a correctable issue)

I like Cora as a manager a lot but I think he likes Heenandez a lot and will play him regularly pretty much mo matter what. Perhaps he winds up at 2n when Story returns and I'm sure Cora can justify him playing daily based on defense. Even if Story returns as a 2B, then I still think Cora likes Hernandex's defense at SS...I'm not sold on us seeing Mondesi anytime soon. Maybe Chang winds up at SS and I'm wrong but I have trouble seeing Hernandez as a short half of a platoon playing multiple positions. I just get the feeling he'll play regularly whether he should or not because o do think Cora is high on him.