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Last Guy on the Bench / Up-and-Down Guys
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 19, 2023 15:40:27 GMT -5
First, they already have a 40-man roster squeeze, where they need to make room for Duvall and the new SS. So it's really unlikely that they will fill the last man on the bench with an acquisition before ST starts and they can put Story on the 60-day IL. And is anyone worthy of the job going to wait until ST to officially sign? That would be very weird for both parties.
(BTW, Brasier seems likely to be one guy leaving, to everyone's relief. Ort might be another, but the way they're collecting OFers suggests that they might trade Abreu.)
Next, I'll repeat my point that Duran needs to start the season playing everyday in AAA. You don't use a potential star who is struggling to get it together as the last man on an MLB bench. The same is true for Dalbec. In a bit we'll see why trading either is a bad idea.
If the last man is not an acquisition and not Dalbec or Duran, who does that leave? It has to be an NRI, using the 40-man spot opened up by Story going on the 60-day IL.
Initial roster construction ...
First, your bench always has a catcher, an outfielder, and a middle infielder. Who the last man is depends in part on the existing versatility, and in part on who will be most valuable.
Next, you really want to have 5 guys on the roster who can play OF, including 3 who can play CF, and 4 guys who can play middle infield. Less than that, and one injury leaves you with no lineup choices and no ability to pinch-hit or pinch-run.
The Sox have 5 OFers already in the three starters, Kiké, and Refsnyder (the latter two being the backup and emergency CF). And they can have 4 middle infielders: the new SS, Kiké, and Arroyo, and Conner Wong who should see a decent amount of action at 2B in ST. If Wong's not on the MLB roster, they are too thin in the middle infield, so I'm with those who see Alfaro is just insurance for an injury or a total Wong meltdown.
If Wong is the backup catcher, the last man on the bench can be whoever is most helpful.
Covering for injuries.
Next, you want to be able to cover any short-term IL stint with a guy who has options left, i.e., an up-and-down guy. And rather unusually, almost all the optioned position players will start the year at least three months from being MLB ready.
Bobby Dalbec is one exception, and he's a high-quality such guy for the infield corners. That's why selling low on him would be doubly damaging. There has always been talk of him learning the OF, where his arm would play up, and this might be a good time to do that, too.
Now, because your starting 2B (or SS) is also your backup CF, you do not need to have an up-and-down guy who's an outfielder. You just need a middle infielder.
Who is that guy? The only infielder in ST with options left is Niko Goodrum, who was decent his first two years with the Tigers but has shown very little since. And he's an NRI. He could end up taking Story's spot on the 40-man ... but he'd have to be the last man on the 26-man as well, unless someone else goes on the 60-day, which you never want to count on. You may well do this at some point, but not out of ST. He's be of no special use as the last man on the bench.
But if they were reconverting Duran to 2B, he would be that guy. And I already think that's a good idea, and it really solves the up-and-down problem, quite beautifully.
Any time a starting OF goes on the IL, Kiké goes to CF and Duvall (if he's not the injured guy) goes to a corner, and Duran and Arroyo platoon at 2B. If your SS or Kiké gets hurt, you have the same platoon (with Arroyo maybe playing SS depending on which one is hurt).
So now Duran is either playing everyday in AAA or is the big half of a 2B platoon whenever any one of 5 starers is hurt. Dalbec is playing everyday in AAA and starting in MLB whenever any one of 3 guys (including Turner) is hurt. Duran is also called up when Refsnyder, Arroyo, or the last man on the bench is hurt, and that's the only time he's not seeing regular action.
Oh, did I just say "last man on the bench"? And isn't that the title of this thread?
I argued at length in the mlfa thread that it has to be Greg Allen. Just his career 45 SB and 8 CS would make him an obviously valuable guy, given the new rules. But he's also a better-than-average defender in CF and he's not terrible at the plate vs. RHP.
You can find a post of mine from before he was signed that spells out who the last man ought to be: a LHB, good defender in CF, OK at the plate, and who can really steal bases as a very desirable bonus. A guy like that would actually get some starts vs. RHP when Kluber and Pivetta (fly ball pitchers) were on the mound and left field is big, especially if the opposing starter has a big platoon split. Refsnyfer vs. certain LHP is one lineup tweak that will put a bench guy in the starting lineup as a regular; strengthening the OF defense by moving Yoshida to DH is the only other one I can think of.
A LHB, good defender in CF, OK as a hitter, who can really steal bases. Allen fits that description almost perfectly, the exception being that he's been a better base-stealer than I imagined.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 19, 2023 16:33:54 GMT -5
Not sure what to make of Tapia's defensive numbers as by OAA he's been above average in center and was above or average in the corners every year until last year, he's also a lefty who steals some basis, and he's been generally a better hitter than Allen. Personally I think they're competing for this spot out of the gate, possibly with Duran, barring multiple further additions.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,972 
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Post by jimoh on Jan 19, 2023 16:35:15 GMT -5
First, they already have a 40-man roster squeeze, where they need to make room for Duvall and the new SS. So it's really unlikely that they will fill the last man on the bench with an acquisition before ST starts and they can put Story on the 60-day IL. And is anyone worthy of the job going to wait until ST to officially sign? That would be very weird for both parties.
(BTW, Brasier seems likely to be one guy leaving, to everyone's relief. Ort might be another, but the way they're collecting OFers suggests that they might trade Abreu.)
[...] As has been pointed out several times, the Sox have not acted as though they wanted to maintain the ability to waive Brasier. They settled with him before arbitration, which means if they cut him they owe him the whole $2M. If they had gone to arbitration it might have been slightly more $, but they would have only had to pay a fraction of it if they cut him. He's not getting cut. or if he is cut, they have made a colossal blunder. Still remains to be seen if Chaim can figure out a way to trade three 40-man nickels for a dime |
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Post by patford on Jan 19, 2023 17:02:13 GMT -5
First, they already have a 40-man roster squeeze, where they need to make room for Duvall and the new SS. So it's really unlikely that they will fill the last man on the bench with an acquisition before ST starts and they can put Story on the 60-day IL. And is anyone worthy of the job going to wait until ST to officially sign? That would be very weird for both parties.
(BTW, Brasier seems likely to be one guy leaving, to everyone's relief. Ort might be another, but the way they're collecting OFers suggests that they might trade Abreu.)
[...] As has been pointed out several times, the Sox have not acted as though they wanted to maintain the ability to waive Brasier. They settled with him before arbitration, which means if they cut him they owe him the whole $2M. If they had gone to arbitration it might have been slightly more $, but they would have only had to pay a fraction of it if they cut him. He's not getting cut. or if he is cut, they have made a colossal blunder. Still remains to be seen if Chaim can figure out a way to trade three 40-man nickels for a dime My impression is the Sox (Bloom and others) believe Brasier will bounce back as relievers often do. Recall the end of last year when they kept running Brasier out in relief. His velocity was mostly back to where you'd want it and although the results were wildly inconsistent it looked like he was taking baby steps to get back to what he has been in the past. There really isn't any reason they would be keeping him around if they didn't think he had a real chance to be an effective part of the bullpen. |
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Post by soxinsf on Jan 19, 2023 17:44:37 GMT -5
First, they already have a 40-man roster squeeze, where they need to make room for Duvall and the new SS. So it's really unlikely that they will fill the last man on the bench with an acquisition before ST starts and they can put Story on the 60-day IL. And is anyone worthy of the job going to wait until ST to officially sign? That would be very weird for both parties.
(BTW, Brasier seems likely to be one guy leaving, to everyone's relief. Ort might be another, but the way they're collecting OFers suggests that they might trade Abreu.)
Next, I'll repeat my point that Duran needs to start the season playing everyday in AAA. You don't use a potential star who is struggling to get it together as the last man on an MLB bench. The same is true for Dalbec. In a bit we'll see why trading either is a bad idea.
If the last man is not an acquisition and not Dalbec or Duran, who does that leave? It has to be an NRI, using the 40-man spot opened up by Story going on the 60-day IL.
Initial roster construction ...
First, your bench always has a catcher, an outfielder, and a middle infielder. Who the last man is depends in part on the existing versatility, and in part on who will be most valuable.
Next, you really want to have 5 guys on the roster who can play OF, including 3 who can play CF, and 4 guys who can play middle infield. Less than that, and one injury leaves you with no lineup choices and no ability to pinch-hit or pinch-run.
The Sox have 5 OFers already in the three starters, Kiké, and Refsnyder (the latter two being the backup and emergency CF). And they can have 4 middle infielders: the new SS, Kiké, and Arroyo, and Conner Wong who should see a decent amount of action at 2B in ST. If Wong's not on the MLB roster, they are too thin in the middle infield, so I'm with those who see Alfaro is just insurance for an injury or a total Wong meltdown.
If Wong is the backup catcher, the last man on the bench can be whoever is most helpful.
Covering for injuries.
Next, you want to be able to cover any short-term IL stint with a guy who has options left, i.e., an up-and-down guy. And rather unusually, almost all the optioned position players will start the year at least three months from being MLB ready.
Bobby Dalbec is one exception, and he's a high-quality such guy for the infield corners. That's why selling low on him would be doubly damaging. There has always been talk of him learning the OF, where his arm would play up, and this might be a good time to do that, too.
Now, because your starting 2B (or SS) is also your backup CF, you do not need to have an up-and-down guy who's an outfielder. You just need a middle infielder.
Who is that guy? The only infielder in ST with options left is Niko Goodrum, who was decent his first two years with the Tigers but has shown very little since. And he's an NRI. He could end up taking Story's spot on the 40-man ... but he'd have to be the last man on the 26-man as well, unless someone else goes on the 60-day, which you never want to count on. You may well do this at some point, but not out of ST. He's be of no special use as the last man on the bench.
But if they were reconverting Duran to 2B, he would be that guy. And I already think that's a good idea, and it really solves the up-and-down problem, quite beautifully.
Any time a starting OF goes on the IL, Kiké goes to CF and Duvall (if he's not the injured guy) goes to a corner, and Duran and Arroyo platoon at 2B. If your SS or Kiké gets hurt, you have the same platoon (with Arroyo maybe playing SS depending on which one is hurt).
So now Duran is either playing everyday in AAA or is the big half of a 2B platoon whenever any one of 5 starers is hurt. Dalbec is playing everyday in AAA and starting in MLB whenever any one of 3 guys (including Turner) is hurt. Duran is also called up when Refsnyder, Arroyo, or the last man on the bench is hurt, and that's the only time he's not seeing regular action.
Oh, did I just say "last man on the bench"? And isn't that the title of this thread?
I argued at length in the mlfa thread that it has to be Greg Allen. Just his career 45 SB and 8 CS would make him an obviously valuable guy, given the new rules. But he's also a better-than-average defender in CF and he's not terrible at the plate vs. RHP.
You can find a post of mine from before he was signed that spells out who the last man ought to be: a LHB, good defender in CF, OK at the plate, and who can really steal bases as a very desirable bonus. A guy like that would actually get some starts vs. RHP when Kluber and Pivetta (fly ball pitchers) were on the mound and left field is big, especially if the opposing starter has a big platoon split. Refsnyfer vs. certain LHP is one lineup tweak that will put a bench guy in the starting lineup as a regular; strengthening the OF defense by moving Yoshida to DH is the only other one I can think of.
A LHB, good defender in CF, OK as a hitter, who can really steal bases. Allen fits that description almost perfectly, the exception being that he's been a better base-stealer than I imagined.
We are going to find out if Bloom is smarter than the rest of us. If he winds up with sub-par players in every up the middle position, then it is hard to see any reason why he needs to stay around. I’m all for not giving up on Bobby or Duran but they need to find themselves in AAA or they need to be gone. Neither belongs on the roster absent a change in long-term projection. Fish or cut bait. I’d rather finish last with new blood. |
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Post by runner on Jan 19, 2023 21:15:49 GMT -5
Duran and Dalbec are two completely different cases.
Dalbec had his chance to start at first base for two years. He failed twice to improve. He's soon to be 28 and seems like a platoon bat at first base (against LHP, kind of useless) with no versatility.
Duran on the other hand is 26. He was not ready in 2021 with the bat. He was put into a position he couldn't play in CF last year. Duran cut down on the strikeouts from 2021 to 2022 in the majors. Keep him in LF or try him out at 2B again.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,925
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 20, 2023 0:44:40 GMT -5
First, they already have a 40-man roster squeeze, where they need to make room for Duvall and the new SS. So it's really unlikely that they will fill the last man on the bench with an acquisition before ST starts and they can put Story on the 60-day IL. And is anyone worthy of the job going to wait until ST to officially sign? That would be very weird for both parties.
(BTW, Brasier seems likely to be one guy leaving, to everyone's relief. Ort might be another, but the way they're collecting OFers suggests that they might trade Abreu.)
[...] As has been pointed out several times, the Sox have not acted as though they wanted to maintain the ability to waive Brasier. They settled with him before arbitration, which means if they cut him they owe him the whole $2M. If they had gone to arbitration it might have been slightly more $, but they would have only had to pay a fraction of it if they cut him. He's not getting cut. or if he is cut, they have made a colossal blunder. Still remains to be seen if Chaim can figure out a way to trade three 40-man nickels for a dime I thought it went without saying that, given that we know exactly what the Sox think of Brasier, as you so helpfully point out, that they would trade him for fair value. The value that they have communicated so clearly to every other team.
Apparently it did not go without saying. Why exactly did your brain jump to waiving him as the form of his "leaving," when, as you so helpfully pointed out, that made no sense at all, while trading him would make perfect sense?
---
The further question is whether Brasier projects to be one of the 14 most valuable pitchers on the team. You have the 7 starters (including Houck), Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Barnes, Rodriguez, and Taylor. That's 13. Someone is almost always on the IL, so who's the 14th regular?
It comes down, I think, to Brasier versus Kutter Crawford, and I'll definitely take the latter as a multi-inning reliever.
We still have Mills, Kelly, Ort, and German, and Mata, Walter, Murphy, and Winckowski on the 40-man, so trading Brasier does not significantly impact your depth. Mills, Kelly, and Winckowski have all been on the projected MLB roster this winter.
Furthermore, the ideal guy to shed is out of options and in his walk year, and both of those are true of Brasier. Everyone else I just mentioned (as guys not in the top 13) has options left, and they all have six years of control.
Double furthermore, lack of familiarity does favor the pitcher, so Brasier has more value to any NL club than to us. |
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Post by Jimmy on Jan 20, 2023 2:30:55 GMT -5
If the Sox DFA Braiser and he passes through waivers they can send him to AAA right? So isn’t the $2M just a poison pill to prevent him from being claimed so they can stash him as quality depth in AAA? If I’m right, not sure the “Sox won’t DFA Braiser because they paid him $2M” argument makes sense.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,925
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 20, 2023 4:46:45 GMT -5
Not sure what to make of Tapia's defensive numbers as by OAA he's been above average in center and was above or average in the corners every year until last year, he's also a lefty who steals some basis, and he's been generally a better hitter than Allen. Personally I think they're competing for this spot out of the gate, possibly with Duran, barring multiple further additions. Let's start with SB. Tapia is good: per 600 PA, 15.8 steals of second with 4.2 CS, and 1.3 steals of third and 0.6 caught stealing.
Allen is 30.0 steals of second with 5.2 CS, and 3 steals of third with 0 CS. He's a great base stealer.
(Allen has probably had more PR appearances, but Tapia has a higher career OBP.)
Tapia has played mostly in LF (2587 innings) and has been league average on the nose. That projects to -5 per 150 G in RF and his actual figure is -23 (which is -30 in CF), in 460 innings. He's had 430 innings in CF and for some unfathomable reason has been +12 per, when -12 is what you'd expect from an average LF. I don't think you want to count on him being an adequate defender in CF going forward, but you'd certainly take a look at him in ST to see if there's some real reason behind this madness.
Allen's stats make much more sense. He has 966 innings in CF and has been +2 per. In RF he's had 269 innings and has been +12 per (= +7 in CF); in LF he has 587 innings and has been +18 per, which is +6 in CF. He's probably a +3 in CF, maybe +4.
Finally, hitting. Allen has a small edge in career xwOBA .292 to .285. Allen has .001 karma (wOBA-xwOBA) while Tapia has .025, so he has been a somewhat better hitter in results. So I decided to break down each guy's karma by batted ball type.
I have to preface this by stating that I do not not cut my newborn binkies slack. Andrus really took off at the plate when he was moved to leadoff, and based on his career numbers I had reason to believe that he would benefit from seeing better pitches. In which case, he'd be great hitting 9th for us. It turned out, however, that he actually got worse pitches to hit after the promotion. I then checked his stats starting with his first off-season, and the rationale for hitting better in such situations disappeared. So it was just a hot streak. I still like him, but I'm not hot on him like zi was (and probably like Wendle a bit better).
So ... Tapia's positive karma looks like luck, while Allen seems likely to have legit positive karma from beating out grounders, but seems to have had it negated by what looks like bad luck on liners and balls hit to CF -- the same two things that Tapia looks lucky on. Hitting line drives to places where fielder's aren't doesn't seem like a credible skill, nor does hitting fly balls to CF that are or aren't hit more or less at the center fielder look like a real skill or lack of same. That both guys have matching results in these two buckets is interesting, and in a vacuum borders on the statistically significant, but without an expectation of, or explanation for, a correlation, you always bet on the random. (I'll probably do an analysis to see if there are any unexpected correlations of karma across batted ball types, though).
So right now it looks like they're more or less equal as hitters, and maybe Allen is a bit better. He doesn't hit the ball as hard as Tapia but hits a bit more liners and fewer grounders.
(If anyone wants the numbers on that karma analysis, I can go into that detail.)
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 20, 2023 9:48:55 GMT -5
Not sure what to make of Tapia's defensive numbers as by OAA he's been above average in center and was above or average in the corners every year until last year, he's also a lefty who steals some basis, and he's been generally a better hitter than Allen. Personally I think they're competing for this spot out of the gate, possibly with Duran, barring multiple further additions. Let's start with SB. Tapia is good: per 600 PA, 15.8 steals of second with 4.2 CS, and 1.3 steals of third and 0.6 caught stealing.
Allen is 30.0 steals of second with 5.2 CS, and 3 steals of third with 0 CS. He's a great base stealer.
(Allen has probably had more PR appearances, but Tapia has a higher career OBP.)
Tapia has played mostly in LF (2587 innings) and has been league average on the nose. That projects to -5 per 150 G in RF and his actual figure is -23 (which is -30 in CF), in 460 innings. He's had 430 innings in CF and for some unfathomable reason has been +12 per, when -12 is what you'd expect from an average LF. I don't think you want to count on him being an adequate defender in CF going forward, but you'd certainly take a look at him in ST to see if there's some real reason behind this madness.
Allen's stats make much more sense. He has 966 innings in CF and has been +2 per. In RF he's had 269 innings and has been +12 per (= +7 in CF); in LF he has 587 innings and has been +18 per, which is +6 in CF. He's probably a +3 in CF, maybe +4.
Finally, hitting. Allen has a small edge in career xwOBA .292 to .285. Allen has .001 karma (wOBA-xwOBA) while Tapia has .025, so he has been a somewhat better hitter in results. So I decided to break down each guy's karma by batted ball type.
I have to preface this by stating that I do not not cut my newborn binkies slack. Andrus really took off at the plate when he was moved to leadoff, and based on his career numbers I had reason to believe that he would benefit from seeing better pitches. In which case, he'd be great hitting 9th for us. It turned out, however, that he actually got worse pitches to hit after the promotion. I then checked his stats starting with his first off-season, and the rationale for hitting better in such situations disappeared. So it was just a hot streak. I still like him, but I'm not hot on him like zi was (and probably like Wendle a bit better).
So ... Tapia's positive karma looks like luck, while Allen seems likely to have legit positive karma from beating out grounders, but seems to have had it negated by what looks like bad luck on liners and balls hit to CF -- the same two things that Tapia looks lucky on. Hitting line drives to places where fielder's aren't doesn't seem like a credible skill, nor does hitting fly balls to CF that are or aren't hit more or less at the center fielder look like a real skill or lack of same. That both guys have matching results in these two buckets is interesting, and in a vacuum borders on the statistically significant, but without an expectation of, or explanation for, a correlation, you always bet on the random. (I'll probably do an analysis to see if there are any unexpected correlations of karma across batted ball types, though).
So right now it looks like they're more or less equal as hitters, and maybe Allen is a bit better. He doesn't hit the ball as hard as Tapia but hits a bit more liners and fewer grounders.
(If anyone wants the numbers on that karma analysis, I can go into that detail.)
As far as offense goes, Tapia has a career wRC+ of 80 vs. 72 for Allen. Does xwOBA take into account park and league factors? I thought not but maybe I’m wrong. I’m also not sure over an entire career it’s more predictive for next season. Besides that, the real thing for me with Allen’s offense is that I have no clue what to make of his massive outlier year with the Yankees, but obviously that boosts his career numbers while Tapia has been a bit more consistent. I think I agree with you that Allen is my favorite for the spot, mostly because of the defense / pinch runner edge, but if Tapia can actually handle center well (maybe some guys just read the ball off the bat better there) he’s got a good case. |
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Post by notstarboard on Jan 20, 2023 11:51:06 GMT -5
As has been pointed out several times, the Sox have not acted as though they wanted to maintain the ability to waive Brasier. They settled with him before arbitration, which means if they cut him they owe him the whole $2M. If they had gone to arbitration it might have been slightly more $, but they would have only had to pay a fraction of it if they cut him. He's not getting cut. or if he is cut, they have made a colossal blunder. Still remains to be seen if Chaim can figure out a way to trade three 40-man nickels for a dime I thought it went without saying that, given that we know exactly what the Sox think of Brasier, as you so helpfully point out, that they would trade him for fair value. The value that they have communicated so clearly to every other team.
Apparently it did not go without saying. Why exactly did your brain jump to waiving him as the form of his "leaving," when, as you so helpfully pointed out, that made no sense at all, while trading him would make perfect sense?
---
The further question is whether Brasier projects to be one of the 14 most valuable pitchers on the team. You have the 7 starters (including Houck), Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Barnes, Rodriguez, and Taylor. That's 13. Someone is almost always on the IL, so who's the 14th regular?
It comes down, I think, to Brasier versus Kutter Crawford, and I'll definitely take the latter as a multi-inning reliever.
We still have Mills, Kelly, Ort, and German, and Mata, Walter, Murphy, and Winckowski on the 40-man, so trading Brasier does not significantly impact your depth. Mills, Kelly, and Winckowski have all been on the projected MLB roster this winter.
Furthermore, the ideal guy to shed is out of options and in his walk year, and both of those are true of Brasier. Everyone else I just mentioned (as guys not in the top 13) has options left, and they all have six years of control.
Double furthermore, lack of familiarity does favor the pitcher, so Brasier has more value to any NL club than to us. It seems strange to me that the FO would comment on how they think Brasier will help the team next year and then commit $2 million to him if the plan was always to trade him. If he's a good trade candidate, it implies that others think he has some value on a $2 million deal. Otherwise we should have waived him before arbitration. If other teams indeed feel he has value on a $2 million deal, which is likely given how arb salaries work (although he will be 35 this year), the Sox probably also think so. That implies he's a useful enough guy to have around in a major league bullpen. The same argument you make for trading Brasier could also be used to say Crawford should start in AAA; he has options, so he can always bounce up and down based on performance and injuries. Is Ort really worth holding over Brasier even with the extra control? I wouldn't be surprised to see other trades off the 40 man either that could help alleviate the crunch (e.g. Dalbec). Crawford showed some flashes last year, but he also got absolutely shelled at times. His overall body of work was encouraging for the future, but not actually very good on paper. Everyone moaned about Brasier last year but he put up the same fWAR as Crawford in 15 fewer innings. We already project to have two starters (including Houck) in the pen, as you said. More multi-inning guys is always nice, but with two already in the pen and (in theory) a stronger cast of SIRPs, there's also little need to prioritize the length Crawford can give you on Opening Day if he's not going to be better on a rate basis. --- I do agree with your argument for Allen, though. I had been expecting Duran, but I agree that it would be better for him to be up when there's more playing time available. |
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,925
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 20, 2023 14:24:24 GMT -5
Let's start with SB. Tapia is good: per 600 PA, 15.8 steals of second with 4.2 CS, and 1.3 steals of third and 0.6 caught stealing.
Allen is 30.0 steals of second with 5.2 CS, and 3 steals of third with 0 CS. He's a great base stealer.
(Allen has probably had more PR appearances, but Tapia has a higher career OBP.)
Tapia has played mostly in LF (2587 innings) and has been league average on the nose. That projects to -5 per 150 G in RF and his actual figure is -23 (which is -30 in CF), in 460 innings. He's had 430 innings in CF and for some unfathomable reason has been +12 per, when -12 is what you'd expect from an average LF. I don't think you want to count on him being an adequate defender in CF going forward, but you'd certainly take a look at him in ST to see if there's some real reason behind this madness.
Allen's stats make much more sense. He has 966 innings in CF and has been +2 per. In RF he's had 269 innings and has been +12 per (= +7 in CF); in LF he has 587 innings and has been +18 per, which is +6 in CF. He's probably a +3 in CF, maybe +4.
Finally, hitting. Allen has a small edge in career xwOBA .292 to .285. Allen has .001 karma (wOBA-xwOBA) while Tapia has .025, so he has been a somewhat better hitter in results. So I decided to break down each guy's karma by batted ball type.
I have to preface this by stating that I do not not cut my newborn binkies slack. Andrus really took off at the plate when he was moved to leadoff, and based on his career numbers I had reason to believe that he would benefit from seeing better pitches. In which case, he'd be great hitting 9th for us. It turned out, however, that he actually got worse pitches to hit after the promotion. I then checked his stats starting with his first off-season, and the rationale for hitting better in such situations disappeared. So it was just a hot streak. I still like him, but I'm not hot on him like zi was (and probably like Wendle a bit better).
So ... Tapia's positive karma looks like luck, while Allen seems likely to have legit positive karma from beating out grounders, but seems to have had it negated by what looks like bad luck on liners and balls hit to CF -- the same two things that Tapia looks lucky on. Hitting line drives to places where fielder's aren't doesn't seem like a credible skill, nor does hitting fly balls to CF that are or aren't hit more or less at the center fielder look like a real skill or lack of same. That both guys have matching results in these two buckets is interesting, and in a vacuum borders on the statistically significant, but without an expectation of, or explanation for, a correlation, you always bet on the random. (I'll probably do an analysis to see if there are any unexpected correlations of karma across batted ball types, though).
So right now it looks like they're more or less equal as hitters, and maybe Allen is a bit better. He doesn't hit the ball as hard as Tapia but hits a bit more liners and fewer grounders.
(If anyone wants the numbers on that karma analysis, I can go into that detail.)
As far as offense goes, Tapia has a career wRC+ of 80 vs. 72 for Allen. Does xwOBA take into account park and league factors? I thought not but maybe I’m wrong. I’m also not sure over an entire career it’s more predictive for next season. Besides that, the real thing for me with Allen’s offense is that I have no clue what to make of his massive outlier year with the Yankees, but obviously that boosts his career numbers while Tapia has been a bit more consistent. I think I agree with you that Allen is my favorite for the spot, mostly because of the defense / pinch runner edge, but if Tapia can actually handle center well (maybe some guys just read the ball off the bat better there) he’s got a good case. I agree with you that you'd want to understand the Tapia CF mystery. He may get much better reads when he's looking straight at the hitter than off at an angle.
We also don't know just how much the new rules will impact base stealing. It's possible that it collapses the edge that Allen has on Tapia. So Tapia is definitely in the competition here.
xwOBA is purely ball off the bat, EV and launch angle. I've been thinking and writing (for my own benefit) about the challenge of creating accurate park adjustments and they need to be regarded as approximations, with many significant confounding variables that are very difficult to control for.
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