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4/14-4/17 Red Sox vs. Angels Series Thread
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,989
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Post by jimoh on Apr 17, 2023 20:46:30 GMT -5
Good to see Duran with a well-stroked double, a BB, and a steal. Not ideal to hear the announcers describe him as breaking back on a ball he then had to come in for in CF.
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Post by blizzards39 on Apr 17, 2023 21:15:20 GMT -5
Yes, what's done is done. It's true that by results he hasn't been great in his first twelve games. But you asked whether the team would have done better to acquire Renfroe rather than Yoshida, and that can only be answered with reference to what you expect out of them going forward.
As for the point about his being immediately ready... well, look at the stats that are most predictive! He's performing at an elite level in MLB by those metrics. So I'd say he's ready enough.
Well, part of my question was based on position and right-handedness. And it was not meant to be in depth analysis (i.e. no “other” offered up). He has a great eye. He does not hit the ball hard. I hope the latter changes and the former sticks. But having never seen him in Japan, I can only say that what I’ve seen makes me nervous. He looked ready in the WBC
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Post by manfred on Apr 17, 2023 21:16:35 GMT -5
Well, part of my question was based on position and right-handedness. And it was not meant to be in depth analysis (i.e. no “other” offered up). He has a great eye. He does not hit the ball hard. I hope the latter changes and the former sticks. But having never seen him in Japan, I can only say that what I’ve seen makes me nervous. He looked ready in the WBC No disrespect, but is that a reliable measure for any participants?
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Post by blizzards39 on Apr 17, 2023 21:19:10 GMT -5
He looked ready in the WBC No disrespect, but is that a reliable measure for any participants? I’d say similar to slightly less than a 12 game MLB stint
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Post by soxfansince67 on Apr 17, 2023 21:33:20 GMT -5
My mind is pretty much as it was even before a game was played. I think the pitching will be OK. I think the offense is generally weak - a not quite .500 team when all is said and done.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Apr 18, 2023 6:49:35 GMT -5
It's way too early to judge anybody, and even more so Yoshida, who has only played in 12 games. 12 games! And they're his first 12 games in the big leagues.
BUT. If you are absolutely dying to come to conclusions, here's when various offensive stats typically tend to stabilize:
-K rate (60 PAs) -BB rate (120 PAs) -SLG (320 PAs) -OBP (460 PAs) -AVG (910 PAs)
His very best stats (9% K rate; 15% BB rate) are the ones that we're closest to having a meaningful sample for. And in BB rate he's in the top ten in the league while in BB rate he's in the top 40. If he maintains those numbers he'll be just fine once he starts to realize a reasonable BABIP.
Another data point: there were only 6 players in the majors that had more walks than Ks last year. All of them had a wRC+ of 124 or better. Yoshida currently has 60% more walks than Ks, which is better than anyone last season.
Again, the point is not to just cherry-pick stats here; it's that these are the two most predictive stats at this point. And Yoshida is absolutely elite by their measure. It's still a tiny sample that doesn't mean much, but to the extent it means anything we ought to be encouraged by what he's done so far.
All that is fine, but it may be speaking at cross purposes. Looking back at his thread, there were projections of 3.8 WAR, big splits etc. Maybe it still happens. There was also a *lot* of talk of immediately ready. My issue is simply that the Sox were built in a way that really relied on him from the start. So if he heats up *after* they’ve spotted teams a bunch of games, it was not well thought out. TL;DR: he has been bad so far, and it has hurt the team as they’ve stumbled out of the gate. So Duvall starting hot and then cooling off would make him not worth his contract,and Yoshida starting slow and finishing well would not make him worth his contract. Got it. Everything is bad.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Apr 18, 2023 7:06:33 GMT -5
My mind is pretty much as it was even before a game was played. I think the hitting will be OK. I think the rotation is generally weak and the bullpen will be super - a better than .500 team when all is said and done.
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Post by manfred on Apr 18, 2023 8:50:15 GMT -5
All that is fine, but it may be speaking at cross purposes. Looking back at his thread, there were projections of 3.8 WAR, big splits etc. Maybe it still happens. There was also a *lot* of talk of immediately ready. My issue is simply that the Sox were built in a way that really relied on him from the start. So if he heats up *after* they’ve spotted teams a bunch of games, it was not well thought out. TL;DR: he has been bad so far, and it has hurt the team as they’ve stumbled out of the gate. So Duvall starting hot and then cooling off would make him not worth his contract,and Yoshida starting slow and finishing well would not make him worth his contract. Got it. Everything is bad. That is a bit of an over-simplification, as the answer even mathematically might well be yes? But I never said either of those two things. I said Duvall can’t be worth his contract after 10 games. No one can be, no matter how valuable they are in those games. (Consider that if that were true it would be no problem he is out… he’s already worth the money!). And I never said Yoshida won’t be worth the money. I said he has been terrible thus far, and that is hard on this team. I *implied* I don’t see a breakout in the immediate future because he looks pretty bad other than his eye. By extension, I implied relying on him to come in and produce immediately (or live up to some of the projections people had) might have been wildly ambitious. And finally that if he doesn’t heat up for a prolonged time, it might be too late to make an impact this year if he and others remain a drag. It is funny to me — none of those things seem like hot takes, but you take them as absurd.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 18, 2023 12:27:00 GMT -5
Now that we have Statcast data ...
That was actually a decent outing by Bello, in terms of what was predictive. If you give him credit for fanning Ward in the first, he had a .328 xwOBA, which is pretty much MLB average.
And that includes his apparent meltdown after not getting strike 3 to Ward in the first, and giving up a pure Fenway homer to Renfroe.
.300 xwOBA through the Renfroe homer, entirely because of Ohtani.
.649 next 4 PA
.207 last 10 PA
Excluding the four PA meltdown, he was .234. Exclude the Renfroe homer, and it's .230.
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Why such a small difference?
tma, dr version: ("tma" = "too much analysis." But "take my advice" works, too!)
Because homers like that are unlucky for good pitchers.
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Renfroe's HR had a .280 xwOBA, with a .143 xBA and .568 xSA. Which is to say, when you hit a ball 355 feet way up in the air, so that it's caught if the outfielders can touch it, it's an out 86% of the time and a homer 14%.
Hitters like Renfroe have a skill for getting the homer and not the out, by pulling the ball. And the pitcher throwing to him knows this. It's a weakness of xwOBA that a pitcher who gives up such a homer always gets credit for an above-average PA.
What is true is this: there is no such thing as a pitcher who is really good but has a specific problem with allowing guys like Renfroe to go yard. If that's not clear, there's obviously no such thing as a pitcher who isn't very good but has a skill for not allowing the Renfroes of the world to go yard.
Which is to say ... hitters can gave a real, distinct skill for pulling the ball and getting homers thereby, even if their are other hitting skills are average or even below. But a pitcher's skill at preventing these homers is not distinct; it's just a function of their overall pitching skill.
So when a pitcher who is good, or is going really well, gives up a homer like that, that is not predictive. A good pitcher can be unlucky with pulled fly balls and a bad one can be lucky.
Now, it seems very likely that the Renfroe homer was part of the meltdown after getting squeezed on strike 3. But it's possible that it took the 1-2 whammy of getting hosed by the ump and then making an uncharacteristic mistake that caused him to lose his cool.
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And what about the meltdown? Pitching at an odd time, rain delay, full house for a special game, season debut ... it seems very understandable.
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