SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
4/18-4/20 Red Sox vs. Twins Series Thread
|
Post by scottysmalls on Apr 20, 2023 15:50:59 GMT -5
Big challenge up next, Brewers have the best record in the NL so far. Four more series against above .500 teams, that's 8 in a row, and hey maybe the Phillies turn it around before we get there and make it 10 in a row.
add: The next time they play a team we think we know is bad is when they get the Reds after Memorial Day. Though so far the Phillies, Cardinals, Mariners and Padres are all not looking great and they get them all in May.
|
|
shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,521
|
Post by shagworthy on Apr 20, 2023 16:02:12 GMT -5
Everyone was raving about Sale's start the other day. Then julyanmorley posted that the pitch modeling stats didn't actually love him. No one had anything to say about that. Then in a game where Kluber stunk there was a weird unprovoked pile-on about pollyannaish analytics, even though there wasn't a single "actually the analytics say Kluber has been good" comment. I think something is going on here other than dispassionate analysis...
of course there is. this is the game thread. where we yell at the opponents, our players, TV announcers and each other. It isn't like analytic guys don't instigate things as well. I read a lot of posts that say as much. if I was the moderator of this site, i would put strict limits on thoughtful, reasoned posts (analytic or not) in the game thread. There are a bunch of other threads for that. This is for raw meat eaters. LOL. Let it happen organically and enjoy the ride. I take every thing said here with a grain of salt. Some folks are saltier than others and take it to a personal level which I don't really enjoy but I'll just disengage and move on with my life when it gets like that because I'm too gd old and I only have so many spoons. It's not like either side of the debate is flawless whether you ride the emotional rollercoaster during the game or you are a stoic adoptee of analytics. That's the beauty of the Game Day thread, instead of shouting curse words at our televisions and scaring the neighbors (and our kids) we come here and type it violently out, every second the game is on, and days after it is over. It's an improvement over pre-internet days, even if I do have to replace a keyboard halfway through the season... Good win, thankful for sloppy baserunning on MN's part. Onward and upward.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 20, 2023 16:04:45 GMT -5
Geez, both Minnesota losses in this series ended with bonehead plays by Kepler.
Regardless, Red Sox are now on pace to go 0-13 against the Rays and 93-56 against everyone else. That gets them to the playoffs for sure!
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 20, 2023 16:08:40 GMT -5
Big challenge up next, Brewers have the best record in the NL so far. Four more series against above .500 teams, that's 8 in a row, and hey maybe the Phillies turn it around before we get there and make it 10 in a row. add: The next time they play a team we think we know is bad is when they get the Reds after Memorial Day. Though so far the Phillies, Cardinals, Mariners and Padres are all not looking great and they get them all in May. I was thinking "well the Brewers have probably just beaten up on those soft NL Central teams," but nope, they're 11-2 against the Mets, Cardinals, Padres, and Mariners. Sheesh.
|
|
|
Post by seamus on Apr 20, 2023 16:14:51 GMT -5
Great series win! I will be taking my 7-year-old and 5-year-old to the game on Saturday - we'll see if I actually see a single pitch thrown given that the last time they just wanted to run around the park's great kid play area.
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 20, 2023 16:29:43 GMT -5
Re: Chang If he becomes Mark Belanger with sporadic pop is he a + regular? Yes, until someone better is healthy, but I still do not think he should be a DFA. Chang is a more reliable (healthy) than Arroyo…
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Apr 20, 2023 16:39:39 GMT -5
Hey gang -it was a busy (no room for Red Sox) day for me, but looking at the box store, seems like a great day for the team. Very pleased. Hoping all are well!
|
|
|
Post by dirtywaterinla on Apr 20, 2023 16:50:21 GMT -5
I’ve been an Ort doubter, but he’s making a compelling case to stick around. Hell, whenever Joely or Martin are healthy, he might even get Braiser DFA’d finally and therefore become a Sox legend.
|
|
|
Post by kwodes on Apr 20, 2023 16:56:08 GMT -5
What do you do when you're a diehard sox fan, but you have Kenta Maeda starting for your fantasy team?
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 20, 2023 17:00:05 GMT -5
Donât look now but Kiké nearly has a league average wRC+. If he wasnât the worst short stop in the world his season would be looking pretty solid. Itâs sort of interesting because the Red Sox, to date, would be worse off if they had Andrus instead of Duvall. But people might be happier with the FO because Kiké would have a good WAR in centerfield and signing Andrus to play short felt like the more obvious move. I am glad Duval is on the Red Sox and when he comes back, they can sort out who plays where. With Yoshida, Verdugo, Duval, Duran in the outfield, and Hernandez replacing Arroyo at 2B (and Chang at SS), I am good with the alignment until Story or Mondesi changes the defense.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywaterinla on Apr 20, 2023 17:11:53 GMT -5
Donât look now but Kiké nearly has a league average wRC+. If he wasnât the worst short stop in the world his season would be looking pretty solid. Itâs sort of interesting because the Red Sox, to date, would be worse off if they had Andrus instead of Duvall. But people might be happier with the FO because Kiké would have a good WAR in centerfield and signing Andrus to play short felt like the more obvious move. I am glad Duval is on the Red Sox and when he comes back, they can sort out who plays where. With Yoshida, Verdugo, Duval, Duran in the outfield, and Hernandez replacing Arroyo at 2B (and Chang at SS), I am good with the alignment until Story or Mondesi changes the defense.
Agreed. I really like the alignment of Hernandez @ 2B, Chang @ SS and Duran @ CF until Mondesi is healthy hopefully at the end of May. When he is, I'd much rather split ways with Tapia than Chang; the latter provides far more defensive versatility and the former is now kind of negated by the emergence of Duran. If/when Story is ready, then I'm comfy w/ DFA'ing Chang. Harder question is who gets the boot when Duvall is healthy and if Duran is still raking...
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Apr 20, 2023 17:34:49 GMT -5
They have two more arb years on Chang, so I'm keeping him around until either I'd have to cut someone else that is good or I'm 95% sure I'd be nontendering him at the end of the year. Tapia isn't good.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Apr 20, 2023 18:22:11 GMT -5
They have two more arb years on Chang, so I'm keeping him around until either I'd have to cut someone else that is good or I'm 95% sure I'd be nontendering him at the end of the year. Tapia isn't good. The bar for a decent defensive SS is just so low and not like they really have a better backup SS until both Story and Mondesi are back (I really donât want to see Kiké back at SS outside of an emergency situation).
|
|
|
Post by dirtywaterinla on Apr 20, 2023 18:51:37 GMT -5
They have two more arb years on Chang, so I'm keeping him around until either I'd have to cut someone else that is good or I'm 95% sure I'd be nontendering him at the end of the year. Tapia isn't good. Yeah, I've seen enough of Tapia. Would much rather have Dalbec take his spot so we at least have some righthanded options off the bench.
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Apr 20, 2023 19:03:21 GMT -5
Makes me really sad Arroyo has played his way out of the lineup. He showed so much promise. Hurts my heart.
|
|
|
Post by patford on Apr 20, 2023 22:41:30 GMT -5
They have two more arb years on Chang, so I'm keeping him around until either I'd have to cut someone else that is good or I'm 95% sure I'd be nontendering him at the end of the year. Tapia isn't good. Yeah, I've seen enough of Tapia. Would much rather have Dalbec take his spot so we at least have some righthanded options off the bench. I'm a big believer in Dalbec but it's tough because my feeling is he needs to play almost everyday to hit his stride. So where do you put him? It would be nice if he could play RF as he's got a cannon. Or he could DH. He does offer positional flexibility so that's something in his favor. With regular at bats I'd be surprised if he would not hit 30+ HR and hit around .220.
|
|
|
Post by huskies15 on Apr 21, 2023 8:39:05 GMT -5
Dalbec is 28, has over 900 PA's at big league level and has been exactly league average as a hitter (100 WRC+). He was well below average in 350 PA's last year. I think it's a pipe dream that he could be a regular and hit 30 HR at this point. His defensive versatility is a mirage considering he's average to below at all the places he would play. Solid AAAA taxi squad guy but not the type of guy a good team relies on.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,989
|
Post by jimoh on Apr 21, 2023 9:06:17 GMT -5
Dalbec is 28, has over 900 PA's at big league level and has been exactly league average as a hitter (100 WRC+). He was well below average in 350 PA's last year. I think it's a pipe dream that he could be a regular and hit 30 HR at this point. His defensive versatility is a mirage considering he's average to below at all the places he would play. Solid AAAA taxi squad guy but not the type of guy a good team relies on. Dalbec's stats making him an "average hitter" include two hot streaks, one of about 100 PAs in 2020, one of about 140in 2021, in which he has hit like a superstar. Outside of those two streaks he is the guy who was hitting .218 .264 .391 .655 on 8/10/21, .143 .172 .393 .565 in his last 29 PA of 2021, 0 for 12 with no walks in the 2021 post-season (when we were just a couple of base hits away from the WS), .215 .283 .369 .652 in 2022, and now .222 .364 .222 .586 in 2023. Outside of those two hot streak which total about 240 PAs, he's not slugged higher than .393. "Fool me once---you can't get fooled again."
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Apr 21, 2023 9:14:46 GMT -5
You can't ignore Dalbec's cold streaks but you can't ignore his hot streaks, either. A league average-ish hitter isn't sexy, but a cheap league average-ish hitter who can play a decent defensive 3B (and versatility at 1B and potentially in the corner outfield) has value as a bench player or second-division starter.
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on Apr 21, 2023 11:50:19 GMT -5
Except that they only could have signed Andrus or Duvall by giving them a starting role and they canât start both and Kiké who they also committed to. It’s also totally possible like you said they just never had interest, but I don’t think that them having enough money guarantees it would work. Couldn’t they have started him a 2B?
|
|
|
Post by dirtywaterinla on Apr 21, 2023 11:51:18 GMT -5
You can't ignore Dalbec's cold streaks but you can't ignore his hot streaks, either. A league average-ish hitter isn't sexy, but a cheap league average-ish hitter who can play a decent defensive 3B (and versatility at 1B and potentially in the corner outfield) has value as a bench player or second-division starter. And at the end of the day, this kinda serves my point. With Duvall injured, we have no other righty in the system that has the bench versatility as Dalbec does. Makes zero sense to keep carrying Tapia off of the bench.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Apr 21, 2023 11:58:55 GMT -5
Except that they only could have signed Andrus or Duvall by giving them a starting role and they canâÂÂt start both and Kiké who they also committed to. Itâs also totally possible like you said they just never had interest, but I donât think that them having enough money guarantees it would work. Couldnât they have started him a 2B? Andrus IIRC was not open to that, but maybe. Kiké they might have been able to but it seems like that would have upset him too, at least from what I read. I know these guys all are pros and should do their job, but when they sign as free agents part of that decision process for them is what the team tells them their role is going to be, and if the team just ignores that agents are going to tell their clients not to sign here.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
|
Post by ericmvan on Apr 21, 2023 12:43:25 GMT -5
Who's hot?
All numbers are xwOBA / wOBA (PA) except where noted.
(Statcast, BTW, seems to have recalibrated xwOBA, so numbers for past performance will be different that previously cited.)
Duran is .551 / .433 (17) since his recall. In that time frame (last 4 days) he leads MLB in xwOBA, minimum 15 PA (64 qualifiers). More reasonably, he's 6th among 189 guys with 10+ PA, 97th percentile. It's hard to do that unless your a decent hitter, at least, and of course he looks like a completely different hitter. Easy to see him ending up with Tapia's spot, when Duvall comes off the IL.
Kiké started .243 / .245 (51). Since the 14th he's .373 / .441 (29), but just adjusting for the legit pulled HR off of Ryan on Wednesday lifts it to .403 / 441. He ranks 19 of 180 in wRC+, minimum 20 PA, in this stretch. I think it's too soon to declare that we're seeing post-adjustments 2021 Kiké, but the every day he keeps this up improves the odds.
( Verdugo has been hot (or simply that good) all year -- just look up the numbers!)
|
|
|
Post by keninten on Apr 21, 2023 14:58:16 GMT -5
I hope Duran isn`t pulling a Franchy.
|
|
|