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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 23, 2023 16:46:36 GMT -5
That’s interesting. Well don’t look at Tristan’s WAR this year because he’s tied with Kluber dead last on the team. Also last 7 games because he looks like a lot more of a AAA player. 2/21 8 strike outs 2 walks. Yet everyone on this thread is very quick to have his back. Valdez hits LHP. Really well. We knew he could do that. He's doing that in MLB. .309/.356/.546. Sick. He also can't hit RHP (not getting much of a chance but 0 for 8 with a HBP and 4 K when he does) and is an adventure defensively. All of this we knew. When a guy comes up and is what you hoped he was, you don't hope he turns into something much better than that because of reasons. But he's doing as well as we could've hoped. Casas, meanwhile, has been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball. The difference between his wOBA and xwOBA (in the unlucky direction) is 13th-highest on baseball at 0.050. Difference of 0.076 between his slugging and expected slugging. Are there things he needs to fix that aren't luck? Sure. Needs to do better on pitches in the zone. Needs to be better on defense. But there's a taxi record that suggests he has the capacity to make those adjustments. Valdez, meanwhile, has always had huge splits and been rough defensively. It's not a double standard at all. When a guy has a track record in the minors, your evaluate what they do in the majors against that. MLB is different but it gives you data. By the way, Casas has a BABIP of .083 in that recent stretch. 8 Ks is bad, no doubt, but he's also not been true 2-for-21 bad. I think you have the LHP/RHP designations mixed up
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Post by bosoxnation on May 23, 2023 17:22:48 GMT -5
That’s interesting. Well don’t look at Tristan’s WAR this year because he’s tied with Kluber dead last on the team. Also last 7 games because he looks like a lot more of a AAA player. 2/21 8 strike outs 2 walks. Yet everyone on this thread is very quick to have his back. Valdez hits LHP. Really well. We knew he could do that. He's doing that in MLB. .309/.356/.546. Sick. He also can't hit RHP (not getting much of a chance but 0 for 8 with a HBP and 4 K when he does) and is an adventure defensively. All of this we knew. When a guy comes up and is what you hoped he was, you don't hope he turns into something much better than that because of reasons. But he's doing as well as we could've hoped. Casas, meanwhile, has been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball. The difference between his wOBA and xwOBA (in the unlucky direction) is 13th-highest on baseball at 0.050. Difference of 0.076 between his slugging and expected slugging. Are there things he needs to fix that aren't luck? Sure. Needs to do better on pitches in the zone. Needs to be better on defense. But there's a taxi record that suggests he has the capacity to make those adjustments. Valdez, meanwhile, has always had huge splits and been rough defensively. It's not a double standard at all. When a guy has a track record in the minors, your evaluate what they do in the majors against that. MLB is different but it gives you data. By the way, Casas has a BABIP of .083 in that recent stretch. 8 Ks is bad, no doubt, but he's also not been true 2-for-21 bad. This just proved my point. He goes 2/21 and he’s not “true” 2/21. I’m sorry I just wish we had this outlook on the prospects playing better than him. If a player can’t improve like Valdez because he wasn’t the top ranked guy in our system that’s insane to me. Our coaches need to see what he’s not good at and have him work on it. He’s 24 and should be able to improve the next 3-4 years. I guess we will see but calling a guy whos 38/38 on our team in WAR unlucky but the guy 16 spots above him with half the ABs an up and down guy pisses me off.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 23, 2023 17:45:18 GMT -5
Valdez hits LHP. Really well. We knew he could do that. He's doing that in MLB. .309/.356/.546. Sick. He also can't hit RHP (not getting much of a chance but 0 for 8 with a HBP and 4 K when he does) and is an adventure defensively. All of this we knew. When a guy comes up and is what you hoped he was, you don't hope he turns into something much better than that because of reasons. But he's doing as well as we could've hoped. Casas, meanwhile, has been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball. The difference between his wOBA and xwOBA (in the unlucky direction) is 13th-highest on baseball at 0.050. Difference of 0.076 between his slugging and expected slugging. Are there things he needs to fix that aren't luck? Sure. Needs to do better on pitches in the zone. Needs to be better on defense. But there's a taxi record that suggests he has the capacity to make those adjustments. Valdez, meanwhile, has always had huge splits and been rough defensively. It's not a double standard at all. When a guy has a track record in the minors, your evaluate what they do in the majors against that. MLB is different but it gives you data. By the way, Casas has a BABIP of .083 in that recent stretch. 8 Ks is bad, no doubt, but he's also not been true 2-for-21 bad. This just proved my point. He goes 2/21 and he’s not “true” 2/21. I’m sorry I just wish we had this outlook on the prospects playing better than him. If a player can’t improve like Valdez because he wasn’t the top ranked guy in our system that’s insane to me. Our coaches need to see what he’s not good at and have him work on it. He’s 24 and should be able to improve the next 3-4 years. I guess we will see but calling a guy whos 38/38 on our team in WAR unlucky but the guy 16 spots above him with half the ABs an up and down guy pisses me off. I think you are misguided on quite a few things but I’ll keep it very simple and boil it down to my confusion that you think 1. The evaluation of Casas and Valdez are any way related and 2. You somehow think Eric or Chris’ conclusions on Valdez are bad - he’s very clearly a guy that can contribute at the MLB level and that’s a win!
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Post by wcsoxfan on May 23, 2023 19:11:30 GMT -5
Valdez hits LHP. Really well. We knew he could do that. He's doing that in MLB. .309/.356/.546. Sick. He also can't hit RHP (not getting much of a chance but 0 for 8 with a HBP and 4 K when he does) and is an adventure defensively. All of this we knew. When a guy comes up and is what you hoped he was, you don't hope he turns into something much better than that because of reasons. But he's doing as well as we could've hoped. Casas, meanwhile, has been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball. The difference between his wOBA and xwOBA (in the unlucky direction) is 13th-highest on baseball at 0.050. Difference of 0.076 between his slugging and expected slugging. Are there things he needs to fix that aren't luck? Sure. Needs to do better on pitches in the zone. Needs to be better on defense. But there's a taxi record that suggests he has the capacity to make those adjustments. Valdez, meanwhile, has always had huge splits and been rough defensively. It's not a double standard at all. When a guy has a track record in the minors, your evaluate what they do in the majors against that. MLB is different but it gives you data. By the way, Casas has a BABIP of .083 in that recent stretch. 8 Ks is bad, no doubt, but he's also not been true 2-for-21 bad. This just proved my point. He goes 2/21 and he’s not “true” 2/21. I’m sorry I just wish we had this outlook on the prospects playing better than him. If a player can’t improve like Valdez because he wasn’t the top ranked guy in our system that’s insane to me. Our coaches need to see what he’s not good at and have him work on it. He’s 24 and should be able to improve the next 3-4 years. I guess we will see but calling a guy whos 38/38 on our team in WAR unlucky but the guy 16 spots above him with half the ABs an up and down guy pisses me off. You seem to be arguing results (with a small sample size) while others are discussing projected future results (or ability) based on indirect statistics. Based on just the results, Valdez has been an above average hitter against RHPs, but he's 0-for-8 with a HBP and 4Ks against LHP while being heavily platooned (59 to 9). He's also -7.2 UZR/150, -24 DRS/150, -24 OAA/150, -16/150 RAA defensively, which are all quite bad, and coincide with a 25.6 ft/sec sprint speed (16th percentile) and a 73.7 mph average throw (9th percentile). His current BABIP is .326 while his career AAA BABIP is .289, so he has likely been a bit lucky on balls-in-play (although some of that may be due to the platoon). His Barrel% has been ~80th percentile while his Exit Velocity and Max Exit Velocity are under the 40th percentile - so he isn't hitting the ball particularly hard but his timing/launch angle on the hits have been quite good, which may indicate luck or an advanced hit tool. We really don't know what we have yet with Valdez, but his results seem to echo the scouting report pretty closely and he may just hit RHPs well enough to be a platoon second baseman, but will likely have to hit even better OR become acceptable defensively at more positions in order to stick as a major league player. Casas is a whole different issue. Due to his pedigree and MiLB/Olympic success, people will be both logically and emotionally tied to his future success - but that may be a better discussion for a Casas thread.
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