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Post by grandsalami on Apr 19, 2023 10:10:59 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2023 10:13:58 GMT -5
Christian Arroyo hitting .160 with an wRC+ of -1 in 16 games and then immediately getting injured is not a great look for Arroyo Truthers like myself lol
Excited to see how Valdez looks against MLB pitching - would imagine he and Chang/Kiké do a second base timeshare for the time being?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 19, 2023 10:18:29 GMT -5
Valdez had a cold start but has been heating up a bit with a couple multi hit games in his most recent series. Doesn’t get worse than Arroyo has been anyway though. I’m excited to watch him play.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 19, 2023 10:27:04 GMT -5
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 19, 2023 10:28:03 GMT -5
Should be interesting to see how he fares. If he can come up and just be an average or even slightly below average hitter he'd be giving them more than Arroyo has to this point which would be a nice boost to the team.
Edit: just read its because Chang is going on paternity list. May only be for a few days unless he comes out firing.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Apr 19, 2023 10:33:08 GMT -5
Was really hoping this could result in a promo for Meidroth, but paternity leave kills that
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Post by taiwansox on Apr 19, 2023 11:01:46 GMT -5
I like that Valdez is debuting against Vazquez, full circle
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Post by nhsoxfan on Apr 19, 2023 11:53:45 GMT -5
Christian Arroyo hitting .160 with an wRC+ of -1 in 16 games and then immediately getting injured is not a great look for Arroyo Truthers like myself lol Excited to see how Valdez looks against MLB pitching - would imagine he and Chang/Kiké do a second base timeshare for the time being? Wait, there are Arroyo Truthers? |
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Apr 19, 2023 12:05:47 GMT -5
Should be interesting to see how he fares. If he can come up and just be an average or even slightly below average hitter he'd be giving them more than Arroyo has to this point which would be a nice boost to the team. Edit: just read its because Chang is going on paternity list. May only be for a few days unless he comes out firing. Honestly I think Valdez goes back down even if he does come out hot unless Arroyo ends up on the IL. He may be a stinker at the plate, but we need Chang's glove @ SS until Mondesi is back late next month. |
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Post by Guidas on Apr 19, 2023 13:50:53 GMT -5
![]()  Also, a great book by the late but always great Elmore Leonard. |
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Post by keninten on May 2, 2023 0:07:27 GMT -5
So far so good. He`d be more valuable with the shift because of the glove but it may have gotten him a few more hits too. On TV he seems to be barreling it up pretty good. Little Manny from the leftside.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 2, 2023 8:02:06 GMT -5
Guys clearly an MLB bat. He may even be a good enough bat to be DH-only.
He turned a double play yesterday! That made me smile as much as the bomb!
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on May 4, 2023 14:16:33 GMT -5
Guys clearly an MLB bat. He may even be a good enough bat to be DH-only. He turned a double play yesterday! That made me smile as much as the bomb! Valdez should get a nice big ‘cup of coffee’ as none of Story, Mondesi, or Chang will be back any time soon! I truely hope he can make the most of it, and be very productive with the bat as he really lengthens the batting order. I do not see David Hamilton replacing him either. |
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Post by incandenza on May 6, 2023 14:28:14 GMT -5
I'm not fully getting on board the Valdez hype train until the league makes its adjustments and he adjusts back, but I was looking at Dan Uggla as a possible comp and that guy had 23 fWAR in basically 9 seasons with only a 109 wRC+ - lower than I expected - and a -4.4 UZR/150. Or 18 bWAR with a cumulative -64 DRS. The offensive bar is really not that high at 2B.
Basically if Valdez is merely good rather than great as a hitter, and merely bad rather than terrible as a fielder, he's comfortably a 2 WAR/year player. ("Bad as a fielder" might be optimistic though.)
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 6, 2023 17:14:31 GMT -5
I'm not fully getting on board the Valdez hype train until the league makes its adjustments and he adjusts back, but I was looking at Dan Uggla as a possible comp and that guy had 23 fWAR in basically 9 seasons with only a 109 wRC+ - lower than I expected - and a -4.4 UZR/150. Or 18 bWAR with a cumulative -64 DRS. The offensive bar is really not that high at 2B.
Basically if Valdez is merely good rather than great as a hitter, and merely bad rather than terrible as a fielder, he's comfortably a 2 WAR/year player. ("Bad as a fielder" might be optimistic though.)
Idk he’s made every routine play the last few games! Progress from black hole of despair! |
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Post by keninten on May 6, 2023 18:58:30 GMT -5
Especially when the Sox have a lead, I hope he gets alot of balls hit to him to help build his confidence.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 22, 2023 15:11:56 GMT -5
I'm not fully getting on board the Valdez hype train until the league makes its adjustments and he adjusts back, but I was looking at Dan Uggla as a possible comp and that guy had 23 fWAR in basically 9 seasons with only a 109 wRC+ - lower than I expected - and a -4.4 UZR/150. Or 18 bWAR with a cumulative -64 DRS. The offensive bar is really not that high at 2B.
Basically if Valdez is merely good rather than great as a hitter, and merely bad rather than terrible as a fielder, he's comfortably a 2 WAR/year player. ("Bad as a fielder" might be optimistic though.)
Statcast paints a somewhat different picture which may actually be more promising.
He has a .319 xwOBA and .361 wOBA, and the difference sure seems to be luck. His 8 LD are .637 / .849, and his 19 grounders (excluding 4 oppo) are .171 / .280. He has 4 oppo grounders, which always have good karma, but not as good as his .247 / .444. His luck on fly balls has actually been poor.
So he's been a below average MLB hitter, and a bit below average for a 2B (which is .323).
However ... among 38 players who have 50+ PA at 2B, he ranks 28th in K% and 22nd in BB%. There are only four guys who are worse at both. That's what's dragging his xwOBA down.
Of 37 second baseman with 40+ balls in play, he ranks 6th in xwOBA (and 1st in wOBA). The ball jumping off his bat is not a mirage. Among all hitters with 40+ balls in play, he ranks 132 of 357 in contact xwOBA -- 63rd percentile. Impressive for a middle-infielder, and I don't think it changes much as pitchers see him more. it's an innate skill. Whereas the lousy plate discipline is something he can work on, and quite possibly will improve as he sees pitchers multiple times.
He was dead list in Success Rate Added at 2B maybe 10 days ago and is now tied for 50th out of 54. For some bizarre reason, they don't include sample size (number of opportunities) in the Outs Above Average rankings, so we can't monitor his improvement any better than by (hopefully) watching his SRA improve. Right now it's at -5%.
I do believe he can be merely subpar defensively -- say, -6 runs per per 150 G -- and with some small improvement in K/BB, you get a second-division starter, or a really good up-and-down guy until his options run out. He's good org depth now and should remain so through 2025, and there's a chance be becomes someone another team will want to trade for.
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Post by bosoxnation on May 22, 2023 18:41:16 GMT -5
I mean the guy only has had 60 career AB's. Isn't it a little early to say he's just a really good up and down guy? He's 24 years old and he's improving. Why cant we give every prospect the respect we give Casas?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 22, 2023 18:46:29 GMT -5
I mean the guy only has had 60 career AB's. Isn't it a little early to say he's just a really good up and down guy? He's 24 years old and he's improving. Why cant we give every prospect the respect we give Casas? Because not all prospects are created equal and the existing information prior to those 60 career at-bats still matters a lot. |
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Post by lonborgski on May 22, 2023 19:42:51 GMT -5
Where do I find Niko Kavadas’s xwOBA on balls in play?
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Post by bosoxnation on May 22, 2023 22:38:17 GMT -5
I mean the guy only has had 60 career AB's. Isn't it a little early to say he's just a really good up and down guy? He's 24 years old and he's improving. Why cant we give every prospect the respect we give Casas? Because not all prospects are created equal and the existing information prior to those 60 career at-bats still matters a lot. That’s interesting. Well don’t look at Tristan’s WAR this year because he’s tied with Kluber dead last on the team. Also last 7 games because he looks like a lot more of a AAA player. 2/21 8 strike outs 2 walks. Yet everyone on this thread is very quick to have his back. |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 22, 2023 22:48:09 GMT -5
Because not all prospects are created equal and the existing information prior to those 60 career at-bats still matters a lot. That’s interesting. Well don’t look at Tristan’s WAR this year because he’s tied with Kluber dead last on the team. Also last 7 games because he looks like a lot more of a AAA player. 2/21 8 strike outs 2 walks. Yet everyone on this thread is very quick to have his back. Right… because of the reasons I just said… |
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Post by gerry on May 23, 2023 3:27:41 GMT -5
The question was about respect for prospects. It need not be tied to their pedigree or history, though admittedly they enhance perception. But respect for a 24 year old prospect who is putting in the work and is performing well is the issue.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 23, 2023 3:35:27 GMT -5
I mean the guy only has had 60 career AB's. Isn't it a little early to say he's just a really good up and down guy? He's 24 years old and he's improving. Why cant we give every prospect the respect we give Casas? I didn't make it clear, but I was just trying to describe the likeliest outcome. I thought it went without saying (although clearly it didn't!) that if he makes a significant improvement in plate discipline, he'll be better than that-- in fact, that's how he would reach his 5 (average regular) ceiling that he is listed at here. I believe he's already lifttd his floor from 3 to 3.5. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 23, 2023 16:30:11 GMT -5
Because not all prospects are created equal and the existing information prior to those 60 career at-bats still matters a lot. That’s interesting. Well don’t look at Tristan’s WAR this year because he’s tied with Kluber dead last on the team. Also last 7 games because he looks like a lot more of a AAA player. 2/21 8 strike outs 2 walks. Yet everyone on this thread is very quick to have his back. Valdez hits RHP. Really well. We knew he could do that. He's doing that in MLB. .309/.356/.546. Sick. He also can't hit LHP (not getting much of a chance but 0 for 8 with a HBP and 4 K when he does) and is an adventure defensively. All of this we knew. When a guy comes up and is what you hoped he was, you don't hope he turns into something much better than that because of reasons. But he's doing as well as we could've hoped. Casas, meanwhile, has been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball. The difference between his wOBA and xwOBA (in the unlucky direction) is 13th-highest on baseball at 0.050. Difference of 0.076 between his slugging and expected slugging. Are there things he needs to fix that aren't luck? Sure. Needs to do better on pitches in the zone. Needs to be better on defense. But there's a taxi record that suggests he has the capacity to make those adjustments. Valdez, meanwhile, has always had huge splits and been rough defensively. It's not a double standard at all. When a guy has a track record in the minors, your evaluate what they do in the majors against that. MLB is different but it gives you data. By the way, Casas has a BABIP of .083 in that recent stretch. 8 Ks is bad, no doubt, but he's also not been true 2-for-21 bad. |
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