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The Rise of David Hamilton
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Post by incandenza on May 8, 2023 10:15:14 GMT -5
Didn't see a David Hamilton thread. But I'm interested in hearing thoughts on his potential. This site's scouting report summary says:
But this is a guy who...
- was protected from the rule-5 draft, though few expected it - as radiohix pointed out yesterday, has a 13.4% BB rate, 17.4% K rate, .226 ISO in his last 200 PAs in AA/AAA
- is hitting .311/.398/.557 in 124 PAs in AAA Has he remade his swing, as the scouting report said he ought to? Is it time to raise his ceiling?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 8, 2023 11:11:13 GMT -5
Fwiw, that's Smith saying Hamilton is the top option to play SS if Hernández were to get hurt, not Cora, and that's likely just logical reasoning given that there are no other healthy shortstops on the 40-man roster (unless you count Dalbec, which proves the point).
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Post by scottysmalls on May 8, 2023 12:47:33 GMT -5
His lack of prospect helium with how well he's been playing is a little odd to me, especially when combined with the context factors you mentioned like changing up his swing and fitting really well with the new rule changes. His infield defense being supposedly so bad but him never playing the outfield feels a little odd too just given his speed, and if his future ceiling is utility player wouldn't you want to start expanding his defensive options?
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Post by rhswanzey on May 8, 2023 14:43:00 GMT -5
redsoxstats had a tweet on April 27 re: quality of contact for several Worcester players. Hamilton’s numbers seem to outpace his quality of contact - of course, his speed should compensate for some quality of contact disparity, but it does maybe speak to how much to read into a handful of home runs (10 of 13 XBH, and 5 of 6 HR at Polar Park - home PA sample is significantly larger). The quoted text in the first post also sounds vaguely like Duran, when he flashed HR power prior to his first call up and subsequent swing overhaul.
Interesting that Valdez and Hamilton had almost identical quality of contact rates at the time of this post, but Valdez has not had any problems with hitting with authority so far in the show.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on May 8, 2023 15:12:31 GMT -5
redsoxstats had a tweet on April 27 re: quality of contact for several Worcester players. Hamilton’s numbers seem to outpace his quality of contact - of course, his speed should compensate for some quality of contact disparity, but it does maybe speak to how much to read into a handful of home runs (10 of 13 XBH, and 5 of 6 HR at Polar Park - home PA sample is significantly larger). The quoted text in the first post also sounds vaguely like Duran, when he flashed HR power prior to his first call up and subsequent swing overhaul. Interesting that Valdez and Hamilton had almost identical quality of contact rates at the time of this post, but Valdez has not had any problems with hitting with authority so far in the show. Valdez and Hamilton having similar batted ball data while one was performing horribly in AAA and the other is having the best year of their career isn’t really a good thing for Hamilton I would be interested to see if the top 20% of Hamilton’s contact this year is significantly harder than it was last year to get a sense of if the “best” contact is better. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 8, 2023 15:40:27 GMT -5
Hamilton is hitting the ball harder this year. His hard hit rate is up from 18.4% last year to 34.4% in April, and his 90th percentile exit velo is up from 99.2 mph to 101.8 mph. (To answer the question I'd ask, no, we don't have data for just, say, last September for him when he got hot.)
For context though, those numbers still aren't great - they're OK at best. For the 15 WooSox hitters* with enough at-bats, his hard-hit rate was 11th and his 90th percentile exit velo was 14th. Add the 13 Sea Dogs and it's 19th/28 and 22nd/28. In other words, OK, not great. That said, it's still early and today numbers can still move a bunch.
* Exit velo has a very strong correlation to age/level, which is why I'd compare only to AAA and maybe AA.
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Post by Guidas on May 8, 2023 16:11:08 GMT -5
I mean, can his defense be worse than Valdez?
And all he really has to do is hit singles. If he has the wheels, they'll be de facto doubles 80% of the time by stolen bases or legging one out on a weak armed outfielder.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on May 8, 2023 16:41:39 GMT -5
all he really has to do is hit singles. If he has the wheels, they'll be de facto doubles 80% of the time by stolen bases or legging one out on a weak armed outfielder. He also has a pretty good idea of the strike zone as he managed to post double digit BB rate in every level of his minor league journey. |
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Post by scottysmalls on May 8, 2023 17:05:19 GMT -5
Hamilton's profile just doesn't seem to me like a guy who needs a super high exit velo to be valuable enough on offense. With his speed he's going to turn ground balls into singles and stretch extra bases on hits more often than most, he should outperform his xBABIP regularly, if he does get on base he's going to steal frequently, and he's walking at a healthy rate.
Also, he's been getting hits - is it the feeling of evaluators that he's definitely been getting lucky? Plenty of MLB guys with batted ball skills that allow them to post consistently strong offensive numbers despite low hard hit rates and and exit velocities (ex: Luis Arraez, Xander Bogaerts, Thairo Estrada) - the dialogue on him makes me think people just think he's been lucky and I certainly haven't watched enough Worcester to have a strong opinion there.
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Post by jmei on May 8, 2023 19:12:07 GMT -5
The fact that they’ve been hit so hard with injuries in the middle infield but have still not called him up (even though he’s on the 40-man, has options, adds value as a baserunner, etc.) says a lot to me.
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Post by seamus on May 8, 2023 20:37:47 GMT -5
Could it be they'd just rather he get regular playing time at AAA to work on the defense while Valdez has more immediate utility to the big club because his bat is ready for a platoon role? On the scale of things, being able to hit righties is more valuable than baserunning and for a fill-in/bench guy, you need to be confident they can fulfill the niche role you ask of them.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 8, 2023 20:49:24 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 8, 2023 20:50:31 GMT -5
Could it be they'd just rather he get regular playing time at AAA to work on the defense while Valdez has more immediate utility to the big club because his bat is ready for a platoon role? On the scale of things, being able to hit righties is more valuable than baserunning and for a fill-in/bench guy, you need to be confident they can fulfill the niche role you ask of them. I think this is right. Valdez kind of slotted in perfectly with Arroyo in a 2B platoon. My guess is Dalbec is going to see time at 2B against LHP until Arroyo comes back. |
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Post by scottysmalls on May 8, 2023 21:10:05 GMT -5
The hit tool description here helps explain things some to me. If he's struggling with velocity and advanced breaking pitches I can see where the AAA success doesn't translate well - though those are probably things all hitters struggle with. Would be cool to be able to see players' stat splits by stuff+ and/or pitchingBot scores of the pitchers they face to help see if they're feasting on bad pitching. |
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Post by dirtywaterinla on May 9, 2023 0:12:55 GMT -5
Could it be they'd just rather he get regular playing time at AAA to work on the defense while Valdez has more immediate utility to the big club because his bat is ready for a platoon role? On the scale of things, being able to hit righties is more valuable than baserunning and for a fill-in/bench guy, you need to be confident they can fulfill the niche role you ask of them. I think this is right. Valdez kind of slotted in perfectly with Arroyo in a 2B platoon. My guess is Dalbec is going to see time at 2B against LHP until Arroyo comes back. What I do find a bit confounding is that Hamilton’s splits against LHP are surprisingly good (despite a 25 AB sample size). With Dalbec’s 40% K rate thus far in AAA, wouldn’t it be better to see what Hamilton can offer at the big league level before Arroyo gets healthy? |
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 9, 2023 5:06:40 GMT -5
I think the fact that we are competing in an absurdly tough division battle overrides the idea of promoting of a player who has never had a ML at bat yet. Not an ideal time for on the job training.
The skill set is tantalizing and it easy to dream about the potential impact, but count me as a a guy who would rather have seasoned ML players, even if they have struggled in the majors before, than throwing someone in the middle of this dogfight. Give him some more time to get AAA at bats There is still plenty of season for him to get a shot.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,999 
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Post by jimoh on May 9, 2023 6:04:50 GMT -5
Very interesting to see such a detailed and thorough update. But "Shot puts the ball over" to first base seems very harsh and extreme; suggests that every time the ball is hit to SS the runner has going to be safe at first. |
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Post by julyanmorley on May 9, 2023 7:05:43 GMT -5
Very interesting to see such a detailed and thorough update. But "Shot puts the ball over" to first base seems very harsh and extreme; suggests that every time the ball is hit to SS the runner has going to be safe at first. It's not like he doesn't make any plays, but you only need to see him field one routine grounder at SS to know the arm is going to be a struggle for him at that position. |
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Post by julyanmorley on May 9, 2023 7:14:40 GMT -5
MLB 2Bs are hitting .252/.315/.381 this year, and a minimum salary guy doesn't really even need to be average for you to be happy starting him. I think Valdez and Hamilton both have a legitimate shot to earn next year's starting job this season
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Post by cmax on May 9, 2023 8:34:29 GMT -5
Is the ceiling of a reserve utility player a touch pessimistic? That seems like a fair projection but a low ceiling given that he essentially leads all of minor league baseball in steals in 2022-2023, is a great athlete, and is really hitting the ball now (.311 ave, .955 ops) and showing improvements with his swing change. Based on this year, that ceiling seems low, which speaks to encouraging trends in the Red Sox player development system. Maybe it just gets into a definition of ceiling but can't you see more potential than reserve utility with his unusual speed, especially given the rule changes? As the old saying goes, 'speed never goes in a slump.'
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Post by incandenza on May 9, 2023 8:54:37 GMT -5
Nice update! I'm still confused about the discrepancies between ceilings as described in scouting summaries and the numerical grades given for ceilings, but this is informative. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 9, 2023 9:27:17 GMT -5
I think this is right. Valdez kind of slotted in perfectly with Arroyo in a 2B platoon. My guess is Dalbec is going to see time at 2B against LHP until Arroyo comes back. What I do find a bit confounding is that Hamilton’s splits against LHP are surprisingly good (despite a 25 AB sample size). With Dalbec’s 40% K rate thus far in AAA, wouldn’t it be better to see what Hamilton can offer at the big league level before Arroyo gets healthy? Dalbec is a RHH, which is what they need. They're not playing Hamilton over Valdez against RHP, hence Dalbec. |
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Post by kingstephanos on May 9, 2023 10:48:49 GMT -5
Is the ceiling of a reserve utility player a touch pessimistic? That seems like a fair projection but a low ceiling given that he essentially leads all of minor league baseball in steals in 2022-2023, is a great athlete, and is really hitting the ball now (.311 ave, .955 ops) and showing improvements with his swing change. Based on this year, that ceiling seems low, which speaks to encouraging trends in the Red Sox player development system. Maybe it just gets into a definition of ceiling but can't you see more potential than reserve utility with his unusual speed, especially given the rule changes? As the old saying goes, 'speed never goes in a slump.' To your point cmax, I remember Billy Hamilton (ranked as the 14th best prospect in 2012) was praised to the heavens by John Sickles and other prospect prognosticators based upon his blazing speed and gaudy stolen base numbers. Unfortunately, he got the bat knocked out of his hands in the MLB and his speed was wasted as he rarely got on base to do any damage on the base paths. The elder Hamilton hit a robust 311/.410/.420 in 2012 (A+/AA) for comparison. |
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on May 9, 2023 11:38:32 GMT -5
MLB 2Bs are hitting .252/.315/.381 this year, and a minimum salary guy doesn't really even need to be average for you to be happy starting him. I think Valdez and Hamilton both have a legitimate shot to earn next year's starting job this season . ……you are obviously counting Story at SS (which I do too) as opposed to SoxProspect 2024 projection which puts Story at 2B and TBD at SS. Story has played SS long term. I would also assume Hamilton is rated better at 2B than SS, because he does not need as strong of arm. With Hamilton’s speed I would assume he is not a terrible fielder… |
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Post by cmax on May 9, 2023 11:43:24 GMT -5
Is the ceiling of a reserve utility player a touch pessimistic? That seems like a fair projection but a low ceiling given that he essentially leads all of minor league baseball in steals in 2022-2023, is a great athlete, and is really hitting the ball now (.311 ave, .955 ops) and showing improvements with his swing change. Based on this year, that ceiling seems low, which speaks to encouraging trends in the Red Sox player development system. Maybe it just gets into a definition of ceiling but can't you see more potential than reserve utility with his unusual speed, especially given the rule changes? As the old saying goes, 'speed never goes in a slump.' To your point cmax, I remember Billy Hamilton (ranked as the 14th best prospect in 2012) was praised to the heavens by John Sickles and other prospect prognosticators based upon his blazing speed and gaudy stolen base numbers. Unfortunately, he got the bat knocked out of his hands in the MLB and his speed was wasted as he rarely got on base to do any damage on the base paths. The elder Hamilton hit a robust 311/.410/.420 in 2012 (A+/AA) for comparison. -- Great point, though seems like Billy Hamilton had the bat knocked out of his hands in AAA, as he only hit .256 in 2013 there after that .311 year in A+/AA. Even after that year, he was still rated a top 50 prospect by Baseball America, MLB and Baseball Prospectus. I'm not sure David Hamilton can keep up what he is doing in AAA or translate it to the majors, but it is encouraging to see how his bat is performing on top of the game-changing speed, especially with the new rule changes that give advantage to base stealers and LHB. I'm not arguing he should be projected as a regular but a ceiling of utility reserve just feels a bit pessimistic given how he is currently performing in AAA and his speed. Anyhow, excited for him to continue building towards consistency and tapping into his athleticism, and will be interested to see how much he can contribute at the next level. |
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