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Quarter of the Season Done
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Post by Guidas on May 14, 2023 13:25:23 GMT -5
And the Sox are...
Positives:
- This is an interesting team, which is a good thing. They're also fun to watch.
- 3rd Best team in the AL in Runs Scored, sitting behind the Rangers and Rays.
- Looking most nights like a playoff contender.
- About two games bettwe in the W column than I thought they'd be at this point, and they should probably have 2 more wins than that (at least).
- Playing at a .680 win percentage pace at home.
- Above .500.
Positive takeaway: They have some significant reinforcements who could be coming off the IL between late June and early August, they are tantalizingly close to putting it all together and they have all the ingredients to make a serious run at being a 90-win team and garnering a solid Wild Card spot.
Negatives:
- T4th worst in the AL for runs allowed, sitting above those powerhouses, the White Sox, Royals and As. Historical analytics indicate this cannot be minimized or underestimated in its ability to keep the team from being a viable playoff contender.
- The up-the-middle defense remains somewhat suspect.
- The pitching is at uneven (though there have been some positive signs recently).
Negative Takeaway: Second time through the league, the preponderance of older, oft-injured starters, the inconsistency of the young starters, and residency in the AL East could have this a team struggling to stay above .500 and make the playoffs. Some other Wild Card contenders with injury issues are getting healthy, or will be getting healthy soon.
Meh:
- Glass half full: They're 8th in the AL in Run Differential.
Glass half empty: Of the 10 teams over .500, they are third worst in Run Differential, just slightly better than NYY and LAA.
- Houston and Seattle are starting to win games and already have better run differentials than the Sox.
- Projections have them as what they currently are - just over .500/84 win team.
Personally: I am leaning more toward the positive than the negative right now. As I said before the season, this team could be a 90 win team or a 77 win team and I had them right at .500ish +/- a couple games. Right now I'm leaning closer to 90 wins, with one big caveat: The high-potential starters - Sale, Paxon and Bello - need to remain relatively healthy and Bello needs to improve his positive consistency. Do that and everything else is either fixable by the deadline or through internal moves/players coming off the IL.
Plus they're fun to watch, which counts for a whole lot.
That's just my read. What do all y'all see?
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Post by incandenza on May 14, 2023 16:57:31 GMT -5
I predicted 88 wins and they're on pace for 89 wins, so... not too surprised!
If anything I think they've had more underperformances than overperformances.
Underperformers: Devers, Kiké, Casas, Arroyo, the entire starting rotation.
Overperformers: Duvall/Duran, McGuire/Wong, Verdugo, Winckowski, Crawford.
Looking at this list of underperformers, I'm pretty confident in all of them doing better as the season goes on. Especially the starting rotation; every one of those guys has an ERA over 5 except Paxton, who has only one start. But Sale, Bello, Paxton, and Crawford all have xFIPs under 4, and Houck is only barely over. They've barely gotten anything out of Whitlock. And Pivetta and Kluber, while not inspiring a lot of confidence, should still positively regress toward the mean. Especially with Paxton looking so good in his first start, you can imagine the rotation being a legitimate strength the rest of the way. Health permitting, of course, but that's true of every team.
Meanwhile, even if some of the overperformers in the lineup regress, Yoshida and Turner seem reliable, Casas appears to be just heating up, and you just know Devers is going to get torrid at some point. And the middle infield situation is not liable to get worse, with real upside if Mondesi ever shows up. (Story would be a bonus but I'm not really counting on it.)
Plus they've played an inordinately difficult schedule, which will become a lot softer in the hot months.
Writing this out is making me want to project them for over 90 wins, but I'll stick with my prediction of 88.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on May 14, 2023 17:20:26 GMT -5
I never thought I'd say this...but for the middle infield I'm counting the days until Chang gets back.
He was starting to really hit, seemed to play a decent SS and was an easy guy to root for.
At this point Im not sure if Story or Mondesi are options at all, maybe by July or August, but it seems like neither can be counted on.
I hope Duvall can eventually at least be a strong RH platoon hitter, but having him come back and continue where he left off is obviously asking a lot.
So for the second half, I hope the rotation can stabilize, the bullpen (Kenley) can right the ship and the offense continues to move the line.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,780
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Post by mobaz on May 14, 2023 18:37:53 GMT -5
I feel worse about the last 2 days than I have in a bit. Losing the 9th inning safety net for any period of time puts me ill at ease. But to date, glad the team is fun and interesting and a bunch of guys have needles pointing up (Sale and Paxton??!!)
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Post by gregblossersbelly on May 14, 2023 19:20:24 GMT -5
Devers is on pace for 44 hr and 144 RBI’s. Hard to say that’s
under-performing.
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Post by GyIantosca on May 14, 2023 21:55:28 GMT -5
I kinda hoping our starting pitching produces at least one more interesting prospect from our pool of available starters. To take a spot away later this year. Is it too much to pray for another Bello.
I like to see this kid we got from the Royals at ss and see what he brings. I can’t wait for Duvall, I hate what happened to him. He was going to be like Adrian Beltre when he got here. I hope he has a lot more in him.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835 
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 15, 2023 13:11:42 GMT -5
Raffy is at 1.1 WAR on both B-Ref and FG. That puts him on pace to be the solid, but not spectacular, player he has been the last few years. He was 4.4 and 4.9 on those two sites last year and 3.7 and 4.2 in 2021.
He's just doing it in a different way this year. His BA and OBP are lower than we're used to seeing and perhaps that's leading some to believe he's contributing less this year. But it's largely BABIP driven. I expect him to have better luck the rest of the way than the .257 that he's at now.
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Post by manfred on May 15, 2023 13:33:21 GMT -5
It feels about right. Winning a bit more than they lose, but some huge holes, and last place. I expect these results to hold up.
I get the half full view, but it sort of relies on over-performance. Verdugo has played peak thus far. He doesn’t likely have another gear. Guys like Duvall, when back, Mondesi, are not guarantee (anyway, Duran, also peak, has meant Duvall has not been missed).
My sense is that they really need to stave off injury. I worry about the starters big time. They are fragile, and many of them will be asked to throw 2-3 times as many innings as they in years (or ever). That leads me to worry about a last quarter swoon.
But….. you might be able to change names and apply this to many teams. If I were an Orioles fan, I’d just as likely be fretting about a pitching collapse. So… play ball (and stay healthy!)
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,330
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Post by radiohix on May 15, 2023 13:40:04 GMT -5
Stats fluctuate especially when we’re dealing with small samples (1/4 of the season)but according to the stats that tend to stabilize quicker, the offense look much better than the last few years:
They’re 2nd in the AL in K%
They’re 3rd in BB/K
They grind at bats and they put the ball in play and I’m loving it.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 15, 2023 14:07:02 GMT -5
FWIW, the projection systems agree on the Red Sox finishing over .500. But there's quite a bit of variance on their chances of making the PS.
Fangraphs has them at 82.6 wins; 29.6 percent to make the PS; 3.2 percent to win the ALCS; and 1.3 percent to ride in duckboats.
B-Ref: 82 wins; 15.4 percent to make the PS; 1.2 percent to win the ALCS; and .5 percent for duckboats.
538: 85 wins; 37 percent for the PS; no call for the ALCS; and 2 percent for duckboats.
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Post by awalkinthepark on May 16, 2023 8:34:55 GMT -5
I was cautiously optimistic heading into the season and am even more optimistic now despite seeing how the last 4 games played out. I predicted 90 wins and a wild card and am sticking with that. In my eyes it hinges on a few things happening:
Position players:
- Yoshida needs to keep hitting at an elite level. He is probably the second most important hitter on the team after Devers.
- Duran keeps playing like a legit, major league CF. He has cooled off the last week or so but if he can be a ~.340 wOBA hitter and play plus D in CF that would be huge.
- Verdugo has been all around awesome, he needs to keep it up.
- Story needs to come back healthy. They just need him to repeat what he did last year - elite D, solid bat, crushes lefties.
- Need to figure out SS. I am still holding out hope for Mondesi but the fact that there has been radio silence on his rehab isn't great. But something needs to improve here.
Pitching:
- Sale/Paxton/Bello/Whitlock need to stay healthy. The best rotation has these 4 in it in my eyes, though they can probably get by with 3 out of these 4.
- Bullpen needs to keep up being solid, hopefully Kenley's recent struggles and Schreiber's injury are just blips
Overall it's a good team but all of the above are still massive question marks in my eyes. If they can do this stuff they will be a force.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 16, 2023 13:04:03 GMT -5
We'll see it's a long season. Yet you've had more go right than wrong. Pitchers for most part staying healthy. You've had multiple young guys playing like crazy, about time. It was a flawed team to start the year and is still a flawed team. Our GM should make moves sooner than latter if he really wants to win.
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Post by semperfisox on May 16, 2023 16:51:29 GMT -5
Rotation will be this team’s downfall.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 17, 2023 10:24:08 GMT -5
Taking a long term view
++ Jarren Duran is the most significant development. He's gone from an afterthought to now looking like a guy who could give you 10 cheap WAR.
+ Long term pitching on the ML roster is about holding serve, some up a little, some down a little. This is Houck, Whitlock, Bello, Winckowski, Crawford and Schreiber. I will give them a plus for zero arm surgeries.
+ Shane Drohan has taken a leap forward and is now in the big group of guys you could reasonably stick at the end of a top 100 prospects list. If he gets through the year healthy he should be an early 2024 major league contributor.
+ Yoshida's contract looks pretty good
+ Long term hitting prospects are doing pretty good. Marcelo is the most important guy and he's been good. Bleis won't be on the Ronald Acuna career path, but he's been okay. Yorke has been good, and there's a handful of lower tier guys improving their stock. Nobody has really fallen off a cliff.
= Devers is the most important guy in the org and he's holding steady. He's been murdering the ball, getting unlucky, has shown worsening plate discipline and improving defense.
= Next wave of hitting prospects is holding serve. Abreu and Hamilton have increased their stock. Valdez has hit in the majors, but not the minors, and his defense is as bad as advertised. Rafaela is the most important guy in this group and his stock has fallen some.
- Casas' bat has been a little bit worse than expected, although he's currently on a major heater so I don't think there is much concern there. His defense has been much worse than expected, unfortunately.
- Next wave of pitching prospects is looking like an airball. Mata and Murphy are playing themselves off the 40 man roster, and Walter has just been an average AAA pitcher coming back from his significant injury. Expectations were not especially high for this group, at least.
- A-ball pitching has been a disaster. None of these guys were significant investments, but very few are playing well.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 17, 2023 10:33:01 GMT -5
Taking a long term view ++ Jarren Duran is the most significant development. He's gone from an afterthought to now looking like a guy who could give you 10 cheap WAR. + Long term pitching on the ML roster is about holding serve, some up a little, some down a little. This is Houck, Whitlock, Bello, Winckowski, Crawford and Schreiber. I will give them a plus for zero arm surgeries. + Shane Drohan has taken a leap forward and is now in the big group of guys you could reasonably stick at the end of a top 100 prospects list. If he gets through the year healthy he should be an early 2024 major league contributor. + Yoshida's contract looks pretty good + Long term hitting prospects are doing pretty good. Marcelo is the most important guy and he's been good. Bleis won't be on the Ronald Acuna career path, but he's been okay. Yorke has been good, and there's a handful of lower tier guys improving their stock. Nobody has really fallen off a cliff. = Devers is the most important guy in the org and he's holding steady. He's been murdering the ball, getting unlucky, has shown worsening plate discipline and improving defense. = Next wave of hitting prospects is holding serve. Abreu and Hamilton have increased their stock. Valdez has hit in the majors, but not the minors, and his defense is as bad as advertised. Rafaela is the most important guy in this group and his stock has fallen some. - Casas' bat has been a little bit worse than expected, although he's currently on a major heater so I don't think there is much concern there. His defense has been much worse than expected, unfortunately. - Next wave of pitching prospects is looking like an airball. Mata and Murphy are playing themselves off the 40 man roster, and Walter has just been an average AAA pitcher coming back from his significant injury. Expectations were not especially high for this group, at least. - A-ball pitching has been a disaster. None of these guys were significant investments, but very few are playing well. What criteria are you using to base your perceptions of the lower level prospects on? It seems like you're just going off of the basic stats which, for one, I'd argue is a flawed way to go about it, but I'm also confused about the seeming inconsistency between calling the A-ball pitching a "disaster" while saying Bleis has been "okay". |
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on May 17, 2023 10:58:46 GMT -5
Rotation will be this team’s downfall. That is the highest probability of any factor for certain. I do hope that very soon, as in now, a 5 man rotation is implemented again. I really want to see the starters under the traditional starter workload and prep routine. Sale, Paxton, Bello and any two others, although I prefer Houk to the pen to fill Schreiber's spot. When Whitlock is ready make the next decision. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2023 11:16:09 GMT -5
I would say overall pretty satisfied with the 1st quarter of the year. They're clearly in the mix for a wild card spot - the division seems out of reach presently, although Tampa might not sustain a 120 win pace either. The offense is fun, with particular props to Duran who seems to have a floor right now of a competent outfielder who can hit (at least) at a league average level. I think the pitching feels a lot more fixable in that it looks like the guys with ballooned ERA's are either: - players who we have reason to think we'll be getting better going forwards (Sale, Bello, Whitlock return, Houck bullpen shift?)
- dudes who they'll hopefully take the car keys away as they continue doing the pitcher equivalent of drunk driving: (Pivetta, Kluber - hey, Braiser was already DFA'd!)
The view from Chris Sale Island the last 30 days: 31.1 IP, 10 K/9, 1.44 BB/9, .29 HR/9. With a 3.16 ERA and a 2.35 FIP. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 17, 2023 11:28:29 GMT -5
To sum up the offense has been much better than expected and coul possibly receive RH boost from Duvall and Story. A lot of offensive depth. And the fantasy like Duran scenario is so huge for that team that it was actually a lucky break that their hottest hitter got injured, opening up a shot for Duran.
The starting pitching has been awful as no starter had an ERA below 5, but as had been outlined, Sale looks like Sake lately, there's hope with Bello. And Paxton looked good on his outing. And Whitlock and Crawford are returning.
The potential is there, but I worry that injuries will doom them to Pivetta and Kluber every 5th day and with nothing coming up from AAA unless Drohan really fast tracks things, it's going to be slim pickings.
Ultimately I think the pitching will offset most of the offense, but if it doesnt they could win 90.
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