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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 27, 2013 10:27:12 GMT -5
He needs both to succeed. If he can throw 100 but displays the command he has since Sept 2011, then it won't matter how "confident" he is. He'd walk the ballpark. He needs to command his pitches, which is something that he seemingly forgot how to do in Sept 2011. Then the conversion to starter further messed with his head as he started to overthink the adjustments he would need to make to be a starter. I understand that it's not just about velocity, I'm just using that as an example of a skill that he's lost. The point is, he doesn't need confidence, he needs to regain the skills that made him good in the first place. Confidence will follow that. I'm not really sure how a lack of confidence would prevent a guy from making a mechanical adjustment. If anything it would seem to motivate him to make that adjustment. Honestly, I suspect his arm is just burnt out at this point and we won't see the likes of '09-'11 Bard ever again. See: every other hard-throwing reliever ever.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 27, 2013 20:51:27 GMT -5
Billy Wagner was still throwing the Cheese when he retired.
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Post by iakovos11 on Apr 27, 2013 21:30:50 GMT -5
Jesus, now what do they do with Bard?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 27, 2013 22:11:27 GMT -5
Jesus, now what do they do with Bard? Try some magic... and lots of it. Might want to ask Bogaerts to detour to Haiti on his way back from Aruba, maybe scout up some gris-gris.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Apr 28, 2013 7:46:19 GMT -5
OK yup, he was up too soon. I can remember him in the CWS. He had such a smooth over the top delivery. Didn't even look like he was straining himself. Throwing 100mph. Same thing when he got straightened out for us. He was flinging the ball last nigh. Trying to throw too hard and holding onto the ball too long in his delivery and running inside to lefties. Every once in a while Bailey will do the same.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 28, 2013 8:34:07 GMT -5
Belly brings up something important, I think. The board can correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Bard go through exactly the same kind of pitching trauma on his way up through the minors with bouts of extreme wildness? Does anyone remember what approach was used then, or did the problem simply disappear?
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Apr 28, 2013 9:38:16 GMT -5
Belly brings up something important, I think. The board can correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Bard go through exactly the same kind of pitching trauma on his way up through the minors with bouts of extreme wildness? Does anyone remember what approach was used then, or did the problem simply disappear? I remember Remy talking about how he had trouble pitching from the stretch last year. Of course, he had runners on base all the time and had to. But, last night he started off throwing from the stretch. It's got to be something mechanical that's not allowing him to repeat his delivery. Unless he's lost it mentally. Which is looking like a possibility.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 28, 2013 10:05:23 GMT -5
Belly brings up something important, I think. The board can correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Bard go through exactly the same kind of pitching trauma on his way up through the minors with bouts of extreme wildness? Does anyone remember what approach was used then, or did the problem simply disappear? Yeah, it was when they attempted to develop him as a starter, he basically ended up with Steve Blass disease (HHHHHMMMMMM THAT'S CURIOUS I WONDER IF THAT COULD MEAN ANYTHING NAH IT'S PROBABLY COOL WE SHOULD TOTALLY MAKE HIM A STARTER AGAIN). That offseason he went to the short-lived Hawaiian winter league and Mike Cather rebuilt him as a reliever, and from that point it only took him a season and change to crack the big league roster. Mike Cather is currently a roving pitching instructor for the Padres, so.... trade Bard to the Padres*, I guess? *just a small addendum in light of my following post, I don't actually think this would work.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 28, 2013 10:36:56 GMT -5
I remember Remy talking about how he had trouble pitching from the stretch last year. Of course, he had runners on base all the time and had to. But, last night he started off throwing from the stretch. It's got to be something mechanical that's not allowing him to repeat his delivery. Unless he's lost it mentally. Which is looking like a possibility. I've said this about a million times but I don't understand why it has to be a mental or mechanical problem when the most probable explanation for any pitcher's decline is physical. The arm just isn't what it once was. Even when he had his bad mechanics/control issues back in his early minor league days, he still generated a ton of velocity. He can't anymore. I think his mechanical issues aren't so much that he can't find his old mechanics, it's that his old mechanics aren't working anymore because the arm is diminished and he's desperately searching around for something, anything, that will give him some more life on his pitches and extend his career. It's possible that there's some other explanation for Bard's struggled besides a depleted arm and he'll be able to make some adjustment that restores him to his former glory, but there's an awful lot of historical evidence to say that when a pitcher loses five MPH on their fastball, it ain't coming back, ever.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 28, 2013 10:37:29 GMT -5
Since his mechanics are messed up, it's impossible to tell why the velocity has dropped so much. I do not understand how bringing him up to pitch less is going to help him. Lets face it though. This isn't all about Bard. The team needs an arm for now and he's their best 40man option. He's probably going back down when Breslow or Morales is ready.[/i] I suspect that this is true even tho Farrell implied that Bard was up because he had worked out his issues. He clearly has not....one decent performance and one bad one...same ol', same ol'. We already have Hanrahan, who despite throwing 97-99 still gets lit up because he lacks control. Bard last night was 92-94 and would have needed 100 pitches to pound a nail.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 28, 2013 10:42:36 GMT -5
Billy Wagner was still throwing the Cheese when he retired. Sure, there's a lot of counter examples. But just go and look at a leaderboard of the best relievers from four or five years ago. The attrition rate on these guys is staggering. I said this in the gameday thread, but I don't think the velocity loss follows the mechanical issues. Bard had great velocity when he first came into the system before Mike Cather made the mechanical adjustments that allowed him to hit the broadside of a barn. I think the mechanical issues follow the velocity loss. He doesn't have his best stuff anymore and he's looking for a mechanical adjustment to mitigate that. I don't see him being successful in that effort. It's just a little airborn.
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Post by ray88h66 on Apr 28, 2013 10:50:20 GMT -5
I don't know what's wrong with Bard. He was always wild. Some of the problem is when he threw 100 he got guys to swing at more pitches out of the strike zone. Now at 92 to 94 they lay off those.But he's missing so bad it's more than that.
Whatever the reason he shouldn't be in the majors. Sox have a real 40 man roster problem so here he is.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 28, 2013 11:22:54 GMT -5
I don't disagree with you that pitchers tend to lose velocity as they age, but he's not exactly lobbing it up there. This is from BrooksBaseball.net and their Pitch F/X data for Bard last evening. This is the velocity graph on his handful of pitches: All the pitches except one were above 93 and three of the eight were above 94. More interesting is the fact that the only one he threw in the strike zone was the one that clocked in at 92.4 ... and it was just in the zone. Nothing else was all that close. Pitch 5 was five feet up and almost three feet off-center. I think this speaks more clearly to the problem. He just doesn't have command or control of his fastball right now (apparently he didn't even try to throw what was used to be his out pitch, the slider). It's tough to find out how effective a guy's pitches might be if he can't even find the strike zone. His release point was very consistent but the results sure weren't. And this may be the most revealing graph of all. While he has almost no horizontal movement (he threw nothing but 4-seam fastballs according to Pitch F/X) he's getting anywhere from 5" to 10+" of upward movement on those. We get a hint of that from the above graph, but this shows it clearly:
All his stuff is just rising out of the zone. Why bother swinging at anything unless it's straight in your wheelhouse, in the center of the plate and up? Before the team decides the guy is cooked, there just may be some work to do to help him get control of his stuff back. At least that's my feeling from these charts.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 28, 2013 11:39:08 GMT -5
Clearly, the control is the biggest issue. But throwing 94 isn't nothing when you're talking about a pitcher who used hit upper 90s with regularity. It's also fairly average velocity for a reliever these days. And I still think it's quite possible that the velocity issues stem from his attempts to compensate for the velocity loss.
Honestly, I think we're at the point where you're almost hoping that he needs a visit to Dr. Andrews.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Apr 28, 2013 12:03:34 GMT -5
Clearly, the control is the biggest issue. But throwing 94 isn't nothing when you're talking about a pitcher who used hit upper 90s with regularity. It's also fairly average velocity for a reliever these days. And I still think it's quite possible that the velocity issues stem from his attempts to compensate for the velocity loss. Honestly, I think we're at the point where you're almost hoping that he needs a visit to Dr. Andrews. Geez. Pitchers coming off TJ often struggle with command. You're wishing that on him? It's nothing to pick up 3-5 mph if you correct your mechanics. I hope John Farrell can straighten him out. Doubt if Dr. Andrews can.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 28, 2013 12:48:32 GMT -5
OK yup, he was up too soon. I can remember him in the CWS. He had such a smooth over the top delivery. Didn't even look like he was straining himself. Throwing 100mph. Same thing when he got straightened out for us. He was flinging the ball last nigh. Trying to throw too hard and holding onto the ball too long in his delivery and running inside to lefties. Every once in a while Bailey will do the same. Sorry, but when Bard was going good as a reliever, he was at a clear 3/4 delivery. That was part of why some of us were worried when he converted to starting - he was going to have one of the lowest release points of any starter in the game. Here's his release point charts, horizontal and vertical, respectively: Taking a quick, non-expert look, his release point has, at the very least, moved. horizontally as well as vertically a bit less, but both closer to the body. But if you look, his fastball is also slower and straighter: 92-94 straight is a lot different than 96-98 with movement. His stuff isn't near where it used to be, and I'm starting to think that FTHW may have a point about the arm, although I'm not thinking it's TJ or anything. His velo was starting to drop at the end of 2011, as was the horizontal movement.
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Post by jmei on Apr 28, 2013 17:37:07 GMT -5
Bard optioned to Portland, Hanrahan activated off the DL.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 28, 2013 17:51:31 GMT -5
Bard optioned to Portland, Hanrahan activated off the DL. As Kevin Thomas points out, Portland never filled his roster spot. The point, I think was to get a look at him at the MLB level against a crappy team in the Astros while they (a) needed a guy, (b) were likely to have low-leverage innings in which to throw him, and (c) probably didn't need him to be on his game.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 28, 2013 20:55:38 GMT -5
I remember Remy talking about how he had trouble pitching from the stretch last year. Of course, he had runners on base all the time and had to. But, last night he started off throwing from the stretch. It's got to be something mechanical that's not allowing him to repeat his delivery. Unless he's lost it mentally. Which is looking like a possibility. I've said this about a million times but I don't understand why it has to be a mental or mechanical problem when the most probable explanation for any pitcher's decline is physical. The arm just isn't what it once was. Even when he had his bad mechanics/control issues back in his early minor league days, he still generated a ton of velocity. He can't anymore. I think his mechanical issues aren't so much that he can't find his old mechanics, it's that his old mechanics aren't working anymore because the arm is diminished and he's desperately searching around for something, anything, that will give him some more life on his pitches and extend his career. It's possible that there's some other explanation for Bard's struggled besides a depleted arm and he'll be able to make some adjustment that restores him to his former glory, but there's an awful lot of historical evidence to say that when a pitcher loses five MPH on their fastball, it ain't coming back, ever. What's so strange about Bard is that he has lost it so suddenly - without any warning. It's not like he had a great season, lost his mechanics during the offseason and struggled the following season. Bard had a scoreless streak (around 25 innings or so) at some point in the middle of 2011. Obviously, he was due to give up runs sooner or later, but he suddenly lost it in September 2011 as the team was tanking and he was a big contributor among many others to the team blowing their big lead over Tampa. It's as if he suddenly flipped a switch and forgot how to pitch overnight. It's hard to believe it's a simple case of he simply ran out of gas and didn't have it anymore. Unfortunately, I do agree with your ultimate conclusion that the Daniel Bard we knew and loved is gone for good. We've seen it with other pitchers - Steve Blass, Joe Cowley, Kevin Saucier, and Rich Ankiel come to mind. Other pitchers that come to mind are Rob Dibble and Mitch Williams, fireballing relievers who didn't exactly have the greatest control to begin with, who just totally lost it. I'm not sure if Bard fits in the former category or the latter category, but I don't see him recovering.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 28, 2013 21:52:27 GMT -5
Unfortunately, I do agree with your ultimate conclusion that the Daniel Bard we knew and loved is gone for good. We've seen it with other pitchers - Steve Blass, Joe Cowley, Kevin Saucier, and Rich Ankiel come to mind. Other pitchers that come to mind are Rob Dibble and Mitch Williams, fireballing relievers who didn't exactly have the greatest control to begin with, who just totally lost it. I'm not sure if Bard fits in the former category or the latter category, but I don't see him recovering. We just have to pray he's a less annoying analyst.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 28, 2013 22:32:55 GMT -5
Unfortunately, I do agree with your ultimate conclusion that the Daniel Bard we knew and loved is gone for good. We've seen it with other pitchers - Steve Blass, Joe Cowley, Kevin Saucier, and Rich Ankiel come to mind. Other pitchers that come to mind are Rob Dibble and Mitch Williams, fireballing relievers who didn't exactly have the greatest control to begin with, who just totally lost it. I'm not sure if Bard fits in the former category or the latter category, but I don't see him recovering. We just have to pray he's a less annoying analyst. He definitely will be - hopefully later rather than sooner, but Bard should be a really good analyst someday, unless he ends up in a front office. He's a very bright guy, to the point where I'm surprised the whole "he's over-thinking it" excuse hasn't become more prevalent.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Apr 29, 2013 0:52:51 GMT -5
The truth is that he only 'had it' for a very short period of time.
He was a college pitcher with promise but very little control and he continued into his minor league professional career with limited control (as a starter). Then he was converted to a reliever and took off for 2.5 years (including both his minor league and major league time)where his control improved slightly and was overshadowed by overpowering velocity/stuff.
Near the end of 2011 his velocity waned, his stuff diminished and his control reverted back to his previous levels prior to his bullpen conversion. Then, the most idiotic move I have witnessed in my 30 years as a Red Sox fan took place, as they converted a troubled reliever to a starter. He has shown no signs of rebounding since. The closest he has come is a 4-5 innings of minor league ball where an optimistic radar gun has placed his velocity at 96 mph.
We all want to believe at each glimpse that he may be back, but the truth is that he is no closer now than he was a year ago, his mentality (based on what he has told the press) is that of a person in complete denial and it is more likely than not that he will never be what we hoped he would be.
Let's just send him to the minors, forget about him and if he becomes a somewhat useful long reliever who throws a 94 mph fastball and an average slider then we should all be happy.
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Post by widewordofsport on Apr 29, 2013 0:57:59 GMT -5
"trade Bard to the Padres*"
Can we get Doug Mirabelli back again???
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Post by awall on May 17, 2013 7:04:22 GMT -5
"On Wednesday night, Bard walked five batters, threw two wild pitches and threw strikes on just 8 of 30 pitches. He has made five appearances since his return to Portland, walking 13 batters in 3 2/3 innings."
If careers were like patients, the doctor would probably give up and declare this one dead right now. With these struggles, I have to believe he would have said something by now if there was an issue with the elbow or shoulder.
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Post by hammerhead on May 17, 2013 7:49:02 GMT -5
The only thing left to do is, either give him some time away from baseball or send him to XST with a "mentor" and see if he can right himself some how away from boxscores and newspaper reporters. Having him continue in Portland isn't helping anyone. It's sad . The only person that can fix Daniel Bard is Daniel Bard. He might be beyond fixing at this point.
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