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6/2-6/5 Red Sox vs. Rays Series Thread
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Post by incandenza on Jun 5, 2023 20:39:23 GMT -5
By "those kind of guys" I mean: guys who cost money. The Orioles undeniably have more young talent than the Red Sox. The Red Sox undeniably have more willingness to spend money on improving their roster. So we'll see what wins out over the next few years.
I do think the Orioles are gonna be good for the next few years, as will the Rays. I think the Jays are going to crest and decline and the Yankees are going to fade a bit, as both those teams have invested very heavily in being good over the next three years or so, yet both nonetheless have weaknesses in their rosters. And hopefully the Red Sox can thread the needle by combining young talent with the ability to spend on smart acquisitions like Yoshida.
I still can’t see any sort of cohesive moves from Bloom and this FO from year to year. The plan can’t be let’s wait for Meyer to reach the MLB, any one of us could be gm if that was a viable plan Bloom has hit sometimes but for the most part his asset allocation has been brutal, and in many cases it was easy to see as a mistake at the time. I don’t see us being any WC spot this year with the 3 AL east teams and Houston there. We are not as good as those teams. Which means anyone that we don’t plan on being here 2+ years out should be in the block and capitalized on at the deadline If you can't see "any sort of cohesive moves from Bloom and this FO" then I think it's because you're not trying very hard. Now, they may be making bad moves, but if you can't see what they're trying to do then you're just not trying to see it.
Like for instance: clearly they got Story as a replacement for Bogaerts, or at least as insurance for him leaving. But Story got hurt. Can they be blamed for that? Well, he was an injury risk, and they bought low on him in the evident hope that it would work out health-wise. It hasn't. So it would be very fair to say there was an error in judgment there. But it would frankly be kind of dumb if you can't see what the plan was.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 5, 2023 20:40:00 GMT -5
This is not a FO rehash or anything else. It is just — I’m tired of half full glasses or wait-till-next year. A .500 team that plays ugly is a huge bummer, and this is just not fun. This is what it looks like when a smart team that spends a lot bottoms out. It's really not that bad. When the Orioles bottom out you get 5 years of 50 wins.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 5, 2023 20:49:25 GMT -5
By "those kind of guys" I mean: guys who cost money. The Orioles undeniably have more young talent than the Red Sox. The Red Sox undeniably have more willingness to spend money on improving their roster. So we'll see what wins out over the next few years.
I do think the Orioles are gonna be good for the next few years, as will the Rays. I think the Jays are going to crest and decline and the Yankees are going to fade a bit, as both those teams have invested very heavily in being good over the next three years or so, yet both nonetheless have weaknesses in their rosters. And hopefully the Red Sox can thread the needle by combining young talent with the ability to spend on smart acquisitions like Yoshida.
I’m honestly done with hoping they thread the needle or whatever. Combine young talent with good signings has been a 4 year mantra, and yet Yoshida is actually probably the FA exception. Most of it has been waste or wheel spinning. This is not a FO rehash or anything else. It is just — I’m tired of half full glasses or wait-till-next year. A .500 team that plays ugly is a huge bummer, and this is just not fun. Well, you gave them all of zero years to try to rebuild the farm, so I can see why you've run out of patience.
Once again: they inherited *a total shitshow*. Basically the worst farm system in the league, and giant dead-money contracts for Price, Sale, Pedroia, and a lot of money for JDM and Eovaldi that was declining in value as those guys aged.
And once again: if you are a fan of the Dombrowski boom-then-bust cycle style of building World Series championships, then you should be fine with all this! This is how it's supposed to work: you sell young talent for stars to boost a core, win a banner, and then ride the roller coaster down until you get another shot.
Personally I still think they're going to win 88 games, though that's somewhat dependent on Sale being healthy. So we'll see whether they'll be "a .500 team that plays ugly" in the end.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 5, 2023 21:33:35 GMT -5
Well that's one way of describing the fact that the Red Sox also have Devers, Yoshida, Story, Sale, and Jansen, whereas the Orioles have shown no inclination to add those kinds of guys. Rutschman is definitely that kind if guy. They tanked to add those guys. Lame? Yes. But that is about to pay dividends. Sometimes, you just need to burn it down to build it back up. This sideways action is causing the pain to last longer. I think fans would have supported it if they were honest about it.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 5, 2023 21:47:28 GMT -5
More of the same today. After being 7 games over .500 the Red Sox have managed to piss away the promising gains they've made and should they lose to Bieber next game they'll be under .500 again.
Their offense went south again and the lineup looks really thin these days. The Red Sox are now hoping that Pablo Reyes can be their regular SS until Story comes back suddenly able to play a strong defensive SS. All while hoping to hang in until Chris Sale comes back. What could go wrong with that plan?
I guess at some point things could go better but at this point it looks line even if it did it would be counterbalanced with their issues. I picked them to finish 81-81 which could happen, but now the possibility that they finish worse than last year is possible again, particularly if Sale is out for an extended time. Paxton is always pitching on borrowed time himself. It seems tenuous.
Long-term the realization is that they're not likely to he better than Baltimore or Tampa in the future, so 2nd wild card might be as good as it gets, not that a second wild card can't win the series.
While I can buy Toronto being worse in the future, I"m not ready to pencil 8n NYY behind the Sox. Their system is just as good and they routinely find their way to 90 plus wins every year so I don't see that changing soon either.
With the Sox, I dont see anybody other than Bello potentially projecting to be more than a 4/5 starter or reliever, which means they'll probably have big pitching issues in the future, too.
At this point I'd label Mayer blue chip, but that's it. Bleis isnt there yet and we already know the issues with Rafaela. Yorke is a good hitter for a 2b, but is he a 2b or a corner OF where the bat doesnt play as well?
I think the system has promise but it's about average at this point, just like the team.
Bring pathetic like the Orioles were over an extended stretch sucks, but the flipside is that they're well stacked for the future and frankly I do think theyll spend eventually. Theyll supplement their cheap youngsters with expensive free agent talent. They probably figured they weren't quite there yet going into the season. With the talent they have coming in, I'm sure they'll spend.
I dont know if it's better long term to be in .500 purgatory if you cant build the system like Baltimire did. I mean I dont know. The Dodgers sure as hell build their system and they do it while winning 100 games per year. They show it can be done, but the Sox haven't managed to do that. Nobody really has, but the Yankees do manage to win 90 games most years and still build a viable system, so it can be done, but this team has only managed to be competitive once in 5 years so I dont know what .500 purgatory gets you.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 5, 2023 22:08:22 GMT -5
More of the same today. After being 7 games over .500 the Red Sox have managed to piss away the promising gains they've made and should they lose to Bieber next game they'll be under .500 again. Their offense went south again and the lineup looks really thin these days. The Red Sox are now hoping that Pablo Reyes can be their regular SS until Story comes back suddenly able to play a strong defensive SS. All while hoping to hang in until Chris Sale comes back. What could go wrong with that plan? I guess at some point things could go better but at this point it looks line even if it did it would be counterbalanced with their issues. I picked them to finish 81-81 which could happen, but now the possibility that they finish worse than last year is possible again, particularly if Sale is out for an extended time. Paxton is always pitching on borrowed time himself. It seems tenuous. Long-term the realization is that they're not likely to he better than Baltimore or Tampa in the future, so 2nd wild card might be as good as it gets, not that a second wild card can't win the series. While I can buy Toronto being worse in the future, I"m not ready to pencil 8n NYY behind the Sox. Their system is just as good and they routinely find their way to 90 plus wins every year so I don't see that changing soon either. With the Sox, I dont see anybody other than Bello potentially projecting to be more than a 4/5 starter or reliever, which means they'll probably have big pitching issues in the future, too. At this point I'd label Mayer blue chip, but that's it. Bleis isnt there yet and we already know the issues with Rafaela. Yorke is a good hitter for a 2b, but is he a 2b or a corner OF where the bat doesnt play as well? I think the system has promise but it's about average at this point, just like the team. Bring pathetic like the Orioles were over an extended stretch sucks, but the flipside is that they're well stacked for the future and frankly I do think theyll spend eventually. Theyll supplement their cheap youngsters with expensive free agent talent. They probably figured they weren't quite there yet going into the season. With the talent they have coming in, I'm sure they'll spend. I dont know if it's better long term to be in .500 purgatory if you cant build the system like Baltimire did. I mean I dont know. The Dodgers sure as hell build their system and they do it while winning 100 games per year. They show it can be done, but the Sox haven't managed to do that. Nobody really has, but the Yankees do manage to win 90 games most years and still build a viable system, so it can be done, but this team has only managed to be competitive once in 5 years so I dont know what .500 purgatory gets you. I 100% agree with you wrt to the O’s. Problem is the boston media market would not allow any Boston sports team to tank to the level of the O’s. They would run everyone from the coach to ownership to canda if such a tank was pulled I mean do we all remember the shitshow that resulted in Ben Cherington’s bridge year comments in 2014?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 5, 2023 22:18:26 GMT -5
That was Theo's comment in 2010, not Cherington in 2014.
The media isnt exactly in live with the Sox these days either. There's a lot of apathy. You might say out of the 4 major Boston teams, the Sox are probably covered the 4th most and are the least compelling, so I dont really know if the media matters much here in this case.
I'd say its better to tank and build something long lasting like Houston did, but I readily acknowledge that teams can have their cake and eat it to as the Dodgers and to a lesser extent the Yankees and even Tamoa who has been good for awhile and still builds a strong system. The Sox haven't managed to do that. I dont know if its drafting or development or both, but if the Sox are supposed to be smarter than everybody else, I haven't seen it. I see a team with 200 million in payroll to spend that has been a .500ish team residing often in the division basement.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 5, 2023 22:56:49 GMT -5
Bring pathetic like the Orioles were over an extended stretch sucks, but the flipside is that they're well stacked for the future and frankly I do think theyll spend eventually. Theyll supplement their cheap youngsters with expensive free agent talent. They probably figured they weren't quite there yet going into the season. With the talent they have coming in, I'm sure they'll spend. I dont know if it's better long term to be in .500 purgatory if you cant build the system like Baltimire did. I mean I dont know. The Dodgers sure as hell build their system and they do it while winning 100 games per year. They show it can be done, but the Sox haven't managed to do that. Nobody really has, but the Yankees do manage to win 90 games most years and still build a viable system, so it can be done, but this team has only managed to be competitive once in 5 years so I dont know what .500 purgatory gets you. Let's not pretend the O's had a plan. They're not Houston who deliberately tanked to establish a 1-time rebuild, the O's mostly sucked for the last 30 years because of a crap ownership team that spent more time whining about the Nationals than building a team. I know it's not the best time in history to be a Sox fan, but are we really pining over the organization that dished out a grand total of $23M total in new contracts this season? Nah, the Orioles were years and years of ineptitude like the Pirates. Although I think they're run better these days. Like I said I do think in time theyll spend money to supplement the kids. You mentioned the Astros. I believe Mike Elias and Eve Rosenbaum were from the Astros organization as they were ascending, probably not unlike Bloom's resume.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 6, 2023 7:11:52 GMT -5
More of the same today. After being 7 games over .500 the Red Sox have managed to piss away the promising gains they've made and should they lose to Bieber next game they'll be under .500 again. Their offense went south again and the lineup looks really thin these days. The Red Sox are now hoping that Pablo Reyes can be their regular SS until Story comes back suddenly able to play a strong defensive SS. All while hoping to hang in until Chris Sale comes back. What could go wrong with that plan? I guess at some point things could go better but at this point it looks line even if it did it would be counterbalanced with their issues. I picked them to finish 81-81 which could happen, but now the possibility that they finish worse than last year is possible again, particularly if Sale is out for an extended time. Paxton is always pitching on borrowed time himself. It seems tenuous. Long-term the realization is that they're not likely to he better than Baltimore or Tampa in the future, so 2nd wild card might be as good as it gets, not that a second wild card can't win the series. While I can buy Toronto being worse in the future, I"m not ready to pencil 8n NYY behind the Sox. Their system is just as good and they routinely find their way to 90 plus wins every year so I don't see that changing soon either. With the Sox, I dont see anybody other than Bello potentially projecting to be more than a 4/5 starter or reliever, which means they'll probably have big pitching issues in the future, too. At this point I'd label Mayer blue chip, but that's it. Bleis isnt there yet and we already know the issues with Rafaela. Yorke is a good hitter for a 2b, but is he a 2b or a corner OF where the bat doesnt play as well? I think the system has promise but it's about average at this point, just like the team. Bring pathetic like the Orioles were over an extended stretch sucks, but the flipside is that they're well stacked for the future and frankly I do think theyll spend eventually. Theyll supplement their cheap youngsters with expensive free agent talent. They probably figured they weren't quite there yet going into the season. With the talent they have coming in, I'm sure they'll spend. I dont know if it's better long term to be in .500 purgatory if you cant build the system like Baltimire did. I mean I dont know. The Dodgers sure as hell build their system and they do it while winning 100 games per year. They show it can be done, but the Sox haven't managed to do that. Nobody really has, but the Yankees do manage to win 90 games most years and still build a viable system, so it can be done, but this team has only managed to be competitive once in 5 years so I dont know what .500 purgatory gets you.This is the operative puzzle to solve - though more with an eye on the way LAD does business than NYY. Henry and Werner were clearly trying to get some of that "Friedman Magic" when they hired Bloom. It hasn't worked out to date. The reason Friedman is so successful is not so much a system or process, although I believe that those are components, but because he's innovating and others are following or trying to play catch-up. And before anyone says "Yeah, but how many World Series have LAD won!?" — this is a site that prides itself on stats knowledge and we all know the MLB playoffs are historically somewhere between a coin flip and 55-45. They key, as Theo used to say, is to "get in the Tournament every year." After that, it may be a crap-shoot, but at least you're at the table.
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Post by notstarboard on Jun 6, 2023 7:19:42 GMT -5
I'm just chuckling to myself about how the doomers would react to the Sox full-rebuilding and tanking for five years. If a couple mediocre seasons and a trip to the ALCS is that hard for people to take, imagine half a decade of being the Detroit Tigers. There would be a guillotine in the street outside Fenway Park for the team brass lol
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Post by incandenza on Jun 6, 2023 7:48:56 GMT -5
Honestly, returning once again to the abstract question of "how is the organization broadly run" seems like the wrong level at which to diagnose the current stretch of mediocrity. The proximate explanation is that the offense has stunk, which in general doesn't seem like it ought to be a weakness of this team. And who are the individual culprits? Here are wRC+'s for the starters since May 12th, a stretch in which they've gone 8-14, ordered by plate appearances:
Yoshida - 148 Verdugo - 98 Devers - 82 Turner - 106 Duran - 27 Casas - 94 Kiké - 76 Valdez - 66 Wong - 118 Reyes - 78 Tapia - 89 Refsnyder - 221 McGuire - 52
Basically everyone's underperforming other than Yoshida, Wong, and Refsnyder, and Turner's been fine. That's very unlikely to continue.
Beyond that, I think there are two main culprits: 1) the injuries have really hurt them, as the replacements for Story and Duvall have really crashed to earth, especially Duran, who is utterly lost. 2) Devers has been downright terrible.
Duvall coming back ought to help. If Story comes back and can play in the field, that would be an enormous boost for this team.
As for Devers? Well, he's gotta get back to his normal self soon, right? (Turn back into a stagecoach?) If he doesn't then the team is pretty well boned.
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Post by boylstonbarhopper on Jun 6, 2023 8:55:12 GMT -5
Honestly, returning once again to the abstract question of "how is the organization broadly run" seems like the wrong level at which to diagnose the current stretch of mediocrity. The proximate explanation is that the offense has stunk, which in general doesn't seem like it ought to be a weakness of this team. And who are the individual culprits? Here are wRC+'s for the starters since May 12th, a stretch in which they've gone 8-14, ordered by plate appearances:
Yoshida - 148 Verdugo - 98 Devers - 82 Turner - 106 Duran - 27 Casas - 94 Kiké - 76 Valdez - 66 Wong - 118 Reyes - 78 Tapia - 89 Refsnyder - 221 McGuire - 52
Basically everyone's underperforming other than Yoshida, Wong, and Refsnyder, and Turner's been fine. That's very unlikely to continue.
Beyond that, I think there are two main culprits: 1) the injuries have really hurt them, as the replacements for Story and Duvall have really crashed to earth, especially Duran, who is utterly lost. 2) Devers has been downright terrible.
Duvall coming back ought to help. If Story comes back and can play in the field, that would be an enormous boost for this team.
As for Devers? Well, he's gotta get back to his normal self soon, right? (Turn back into a stagecoach?) If he doesn't then the team is pretty well boned.
Is everyone other than those 4 actually underperforming, though? Or are they just performing to their expected levels, not the best-case scenario this Red Sox team requires to sniff contention? Kiké's 76 is right where he was last year; that's who he is. Pablo Reyes's number is right on his career average. Raimel Tapia's 89 is actually better than his career wRC+ of 81. McGuire's 52 is horrid, but he's always been a pretty horrid hitter. And Duran, Casas, and Valdez have never proven anything at the big league level, so I don't know why we would automatically call what they're doing underperformance (and Casas isn't even that far off his ZIPs projection of 108). It's really just Devers and Verdugo who are underperforming in a surprising way. And with Verdugo, well, the last two years he put up a 107 and 103, so it's not all that surprising with him, either. And how much help do we really expect to get from Duvall, anyway? He didn't suddenly turn into Barry Bonds this offseason; he's going to revert to form when he comes back, which is a career 99 wRC+.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,149
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Post by cdj on Jun 6, 2023 9:01:43 GMT -5
Team isn’t good enough for Devers to not play like a $100 mill player let alone a $300 mill player
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Post by Guidas on Jun 6, 2023 9:05:54 GMT -5
Honestly, returning once again to the abstract question of "how is the organization broadly run" seems like the wrong level at which to diagnose the current stretch of mediocrity. The proximate explanation is that the offense has stunk, which in general doesn't seem like it ought to be a weakness of this team. And who are the individual culprits? Here are wRC+'s for the starters since May 12th, a stretch in which they've gone 8-14, ordered by plate appearances: Yoshida - 148 Verdugo - 98 Devers - 82 Turner - 106 Duran - 27 Casas - 94 Kiké - 76 Valdez - 66 Wong - 118 Reyes - 78 Tapia - 89 Refsnyder - 221 McGuire - 52 Basically everyone's underperforming other than Yoshida, Wong, and Refsnyder, and Turner's been fine. That's very unlikely to continue. Beyond that, I think there are two main culprits: 1) the injuries have really hurt them, as the replacements for Story and Duvall have really crashed to earth, especially Duran, who is utterly lost. 2) Devers has been downright terrible.
Duvall coming back ought to help. If Story comes back and can play in the field, that would be an enormous boost for this team. As for Devers? Well, he's gotta get back to his normal self soon, right? (Turn back into a stagecoach?) If he doesn't then the team is pretty well boned.
I think Saris wrote a piece for The Athletic showing that many guys who sign big contracts have a dip in performance after. Apparently, many press trying to prove that they're worth it. Within six months to a year (gulp), they tend to go back to their pre-ginormous contract performance, and some even get better. The caveat is pitchers, who can break at any moment. But if they don't, they, too, go back to their personal norms or slightly better.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 6, 2023 9:08:49 GMT -5
Honestly, returning once again to the abstract question of "how is the organization broadly run" seems like the wrong level at which to diagnose the current stretch of mediocrity. The proximate explanation is that the offense has stunk, which in general doesn't seem like it ought to be a weakness of this team. And who are the individual culprits? Here are wRC+'s for the starters since May 12th, a stretch in which they've gone 8-14, ordered by plate appearances: Yoshida - 148 Verdugo - 98 Devers - 82 Turner - 106 Duran - 27 Casas - 94 Kiké - 76 Valdez - 66 Wong - 118 Reyes - 78 Tapia - 89 Refsnyder - 221 McGuire - 52 Basically everyone's underperforming other than Yoshida, Wong, and Refsnyder, and Turner's been fine. That's very unlikely to continue. Beyond that, I think there are two main culprits: 1) the injuries have really hurt them, as the replacements for Story and Duvall have really crashed to earth, especially Duran, who is utterly lost. 2) Devers has been downright terrible.
Duvall coming back ought to help. If Story comes back and can play in the field, that would be an enormous boost for this team. As for Devers? Well, he's gotta get back to his normal self soon, right? (Turn back into a stagecoach?) If he doesn't then the team is pretty well boned.
Is everyone other than those 4 actually underperforming, though? Or are they just performing to their expected levels, not the best-case scenario this Red Sox team requires to sniff contention? Kiké's 76 is right where he was last year; that's who he is. Pablo Reyes's number is right on his career average. Raimel Tapia's 89 is actually better than his career wRC+ of 81. McGuire's 52 is horrid, but he's always been a pretty horrid hitter. And Duran, Casas, and Valdez have never proven anything at the big league level, so I don't know why we would automatically call what they're doing underperformance (and Casas isn't even that far off his ZIPs projection of 108). It's really just Devers and Verdugo who are underperforming in a surprising way. And with Verdugo, well, the last two years he put up a 107 and 103, so it's not all that surprising with him, either. And how much help do we really expect to get from Duvall, anyway? He didn't suddenly turn into Barry Bonds this offseason; he's going to revert to form when he comes back, which is a career 99 wRC+.I agree with this point, in particular. Duvall was signed to be a complementary piece/placeholder. He was hot at the beginning of the year. No guarantee he suddenly becomes that guy again, especially coming off a wrist injury.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jun 6, 2023 9:17:28 GMT -5
Honestly, returning once again to the abstract question of "how is the organization broadly run" seems like the wrong level at which to diagnose the current stretch of mediocrity. The proximate explanation is that the offense has stunk, which in general doesn't seem like it ought to be a weakness of this team. And who are the individual culprits? Here are wRC+'s for the starters since May 12th, a stretch in which they've gone 8-14, ordered by plate appearances:
Yoshida - 148 Verdugo - 98 Devers - 82 Turner - 106 Duran - 27 Casas - 94 Kiké - 76 Valdez - 66 Wong - 118 Reyes - 78 Tapia - 89 Refsnyder - 221 McGuire - 52
Basically everyone's underperforming other than Yoshida, Wong, and Refsnyder, and Turner's been fine. That's very unlikely to continue.
Beyond that, I think there are two main culprits: 1) the injuries have really hurt them, as the replacements for Story and Duvall have really crashed to earth, especially Duran, who is utterly lost. 2) Devers has been downright terrible.
Duvall coming back ought to help. If Story comes back and can play in the field, that would be an enormous boost for this team.
As for Devers? Well, he's gotta get back to his normal self soon, right? (Turn back into a stagecoach?) If he doesn't then the team is pretty well boned.
Is everyone other than those 4 actually underperforming, though? Or are they just performing to their expected levels, not the best-case scenario this Red Sox team requires to sniff contention? Kiké's 76 is right where he was last year; that's who he is. Pablo Reyes's number is right on his career average. Raimel Tapia's 89 is actually better than his career wRC+ of 81. McGuire's 52 is horrid, but he's always been a pretty horrid hitter. And Duran, Casas, and Valdez have never proven anything at the big league level, so I don't know why we would automatically call what they're doing underperformance (and Casas isn't even that far off his ZIPs projection of 108). It's really just Devers and Verdugo who are underperforming in a surprising way. And with Verdugo, well, the last two years he put up a 107 and 103, so it's not all that surprising with him, either. And how much help do we really expect to get from Duvall, anyway? He didn't suddenly turn into Barry Bonds this offseason; he's going to revert to form when he comes back, which is a career 99 wRC+. I agree with this. The problem with the team heading into the year is they just had very few guys who could be relied on to provide production. Granted that's true of every team, but if you were to tell me going into the year that 1. Story would be out and 2. Devers would have a 105 wRC+ over the first 2 months...I would have a very hard time believing the team would be competitive. I realize this sounds kind of dumb, but in order to have a good team you need to have good players, and if their 2 best players aren't providing that production you probably won't be good? Everything else that has gone on - Kiké, Duran and Casas struggling, Duval's injury, the rotation's mediocrity - is all kind of in line with what you would expect from that group of players. But Story and Devers are guys who you would hope provide ~8 WAR over the course of a season and so far that hasn't really happened.
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Post by notstarboard on Jun 6, 2023 9:30:47 GMT -5
Honestly, returning once again to the abstract question of "how is the organization broadly run" seems like the wrong level at which to diagnose the current stretch of mediocrity. The proximate explanation is that the offense has stunk, which in general doesn't seem like it ought to be a weakness of this team. And who are the individual culprits? Here are wRC+'s for the starters since May 12th, a stretch in which they've gone 8-14, ordered by plate appearances:
Yoshida - 148 Verdugo - 98 Devers - 82 Turner - 106 Duran - 27 Casas - 94 Kiké - 76 Valdez - 66 Wong - 118 Reyes - 78 Tapia - 89 Refsnyder - 221 McGuire - 52
Basically everyone's underperforming other than Yoshida, Wong, and Refsnyder, and Turner's been fine. That's very unlikely to continue.
Beyond that, I think there are two main culprits: 1) the injuries have really hurt them, as the replacements for Story and Duvall have really crashed to earth, especially Duran, who is utterly lost. 2) Devers has been downright terrible.
Duvall coming back ought to help. If Story comes back and can play in the field, that would be an enormous boost for this team.
As for Devers? Well, he's gotta get back to his normal self soon, right? (Turn back into a stagecoach?) If he doesn't then the team is pretty well boned.
Is everyone other than those 4 actually underperforming, though? Or are they just performing to their expected levels, not the best-case scenario this Red Sox team requires to sniff contention? Kiké's 76 is right where he was last year; that's who he is. Pablo Reyes's number is right on his career average. Raimel Tapia's 89 is actually better than his career wRC+ of 81. McGuire's 52 is horrid, but he's always been a pretty horrid hitter. And Duran, Casas, and Valdez have never proven anything at the big league level, so I don't know why we would automatically call what they're doing underperformance (and Casas isn't even that far off his ZIPs projection of 108). It's really just Devers and Verdugo who are underperforming in a surprising way. And with Verdugo, well, the last two years he put up a 107 and 103, so it's not all that surprising with him, either. And how much help do we really expect to get from Duvall, anyway? He didn't suddenly turn into Barry Bonds this offseason; he's going to revert to form when he comes back, which is a career 99 wRC+. Yep, they're actually underperforming with regard to expectations. There's just a difference between underperforming and "underperforming in a surprising way".
In the starting lineup here's wRC+_sinceMay12 - wRC+_career:
Verdugo: -11
Yoshida: 6 (small sample)
Turner: -22 (he is 38 so career totals may be misleading, but 106 is still ~10 below where projections had him for the season)
Devers: -40
Hernandez: -20
Duran: -53 (modest sample)
Casas: -2 (small sample)
Valdez: -25 (small sample) Wong: 23 (small sample)
Like incandenza said, it's basically just Wong and Yoshida among the starters who are actually hitting. Honorable mention to Turner for being above league average even if he's underwhelmed a bit lately. And at least Verdugo had two three-hit games in the Rays series, despite being pretty poor lately; he could be turning things around.
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Kiké was injured for a lot of last year, so it's no surprise his bat suffered. This year he's healthy. Maybe he's declining fast offensively, but that was not the expectation. He's only 31 and has a career 96 wRC+.
Duran has a 27 wRC+ since May 12th. He managed a 78 while looked overmatched last year, and he's of the age where he should get better year over year.
Etc.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 6, 2023 10:32:04 GMT -5
Honestly, returning once again to the abstract question of "how is the organization broadly run" seems like the wrong level at which to diagnose the current stretch of mediocrity. The proximate explanation is that the offense has stunk, which in general doesn't seem like it ought to be a weakness of this team. And who are the individual culprits? Here are wRC+'s for the starters since May 12th, a stretch in which they've gone 8-14, ordered by plate appearances: Yoshida - 148 Verdugo - 98 Devers - 82 Turner - 106 Duran - 27 Casas - 94 Kiké - 76 Valdez - 66 Wong - 118 Reyes - 78 Tapia - 89 Refsnyder - 221 McGuire - 52 Basically everyone's underperforming other than Yoshida, Wong, and Refsnyder, and Turner's been fine. That's very unlikely to continue. Beyond that, I think there are two main culprits: 1) the injuries have really hurt them, as the replacements for Story and Duvall have really crashed to earth, especially Duran, who is utterly lost. 2) Devers has been downright terrible.
Duvall coming back ought to help. If Story comes back and can play in the field, that would be an enormous boost for this team. As for Devers? Well, he's gotta get back to his normal self soon, right? (Turn back into a stagecoach?) If he doesn't then the team is pretty well boned.
I think Saris wrote a piece for The Athletic showing that many guys who sign big contracts have a dip in performance after. Apparently, many press trying to prove that they're worth it. Within six months to a year (gulp), they tend to go back to their pre-ginormous contract performance, and some even get better. The caveat is pitchers, who can break at any moment. But if they don't, they, too, go back to their personal norms or slightly better. My own very non-expert diagnosis is that he's been trying to hit a HR in every at bat, which fits with the "pressing" idea. And it's just led to more fly balls (and thus a lower BABIP), fewer walks, and, in fact, fewer home runs. And then I think he's had some bad BABIP luck in addition to that.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 6, 2023 11:33:15 GMT -5
Is everyone other than those 4 actually underperforming, though? Or are they just performing to their expected levels, not the best-case scenario this Red Sox team requires to sniff contention? Kiké's 76 is right where he was last year; that's who he is. Pablo Reyes's number is right on his career average. Raimel Tapia's 89 is actually better than his career wRC+ of 81. McGuire's 52 is horrid, but he's always been a pretty horrid hitter. And Duran, Casas, and Valdez have never proven anything at the big league level, so I don't know why we would automatically call what they're doing underperformance (and Casas isn't even that far off his ZIPs projection of 108). It's really just Devers and Verdugo who are underperforming in a surprising way. And with Verdugo, well, the last two years he put up a 107 and 103, so it's not all that surprising with him, either. And how much help do we really expect to get from Duvall, anyway? He didn't suddenly turn into Barry Bonds this offseason; he's going to revert to form when he comes back, which is a career 99 wRC+. Yep, they're actually underperforming with regard to expectations. There's just a difference between underperforming and "underperforming in a surprising way".
In the starting lineup here's wRC+_sinceMay12 - wRC+_career:
Verdugo: -11
Yoshida: 6 (small sample)
Turner: -22 (he is 38 so career totals may be misleading, but 106 is still ~10 below where projections had him for the season)
Devers: -40
Hernandez: -20
Duran: -53 (modest sample)
Casas: -2 (small sample)
Valdez: -25 (small sample) Wong: 23 (small sample)
Like incandenza said, it's basically just Wong and Yoshida among the starters who are actually hitting. Honorable mention to Turner for being above league average even if he's underwhelmed a bit lately. And at least Verdugo had two three-hit games in the Rays series, despite being pretty poor lately; he could be turning things around.
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Kiké was injured for a lot of last year, so it's no surprise his bat suffered. This year he's healthy. Maybe he's declining fast offensively, but that was not the expectation. He's only 31 and has a career 96 wRC+.
Duran has a 27 wRC+ since May 12th. He managed a 78 while looked overmatched last year, and he's of the age where he should get better year over year.
Etc. wait....notstarboard.....and i am not a big stat guy, but why do you get to counterpoint based on a truncated sample size ?
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Post by jbuttah on Jun 6, 2023 13:24:46 GMT -5
It's pretty clear to other teams that Duran can't hit and has a hard time laying off of off speed pitches. He's gonna keep getting slider/curves/ch down, out of the strike zone until he proves he can lay off.
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Post by notstarboard on Jun 6, 2023 14:44:17 GMT -5
Yep, they're actually underperforming with regard to expectations. There's just a difference between underperforming and "underperforming in a surprising way".
In the starting lineup here's wRC+_sinceMay12 - wRC+_career:
Verdugo: -11
Yoshida: 6 (small sample)
Turner: -22 (he is 38 so career totals may be misleading, but 106 is still ~10 below where projections had him for the season)
Devers: -40
Hernandez: -20
Duran: -53 (modest sample)
Casas: -2 (small sample)
Valdez: -25 (small sample) Wong: 23 (small sample)
Like incandenza said, it's basically just Wong and Yoshida among the starters who are actually hitting. Honorable mention to Turner for being above league average even if he's underwhelmed a bit lately. And at least Verdugo had two three-hit games in the Rays series, despite being pretty poor lately; he could be turning things around.
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Kiké was injured for a lot of last year, so it's no surprise his bat suffered. This year he's healthy. Maybe he's declining fast offensively, but that was not the expectation. He's only 31 and has a career 96 wRC+.
Duran has a 27 wRC+ since May 12th. He managed a 78 while looked overmatched last year, and he's of the age where he should get better year over year.
Etc. wait....notstarboard.....and i am not a big stat guy, but why do you get to counterpoint based on a truncated sample size ? It's a fair point - I wanted to call out the sample size for the young guys, since they don't have that many ABs yet, but one could also argue that we can't possibly have accurate expectations for guys who are still so young. Projections systems also expect guys like Duran, Valdez, and Casas to be better over the rest of the year than they've been lately, though, which matches my numbers. I'm sure this is in part because of their performances earlier in their careers, so it's sketchy, but after a certain point we have to go off something or we're into "believe whatever you want" territory. If you have other numbers to suggest the young guys should not improve going forward, I'm all ears.
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Post by rico6 on Jun 6, 2023 15:09:03 GMT -5
By "those kind of guys" I mean: guys who cost money. The Orioles undeniably have more young talent than the Red Sox. The Red Sox undeniably have more willingness to spend money on improving their roster. So we'll see what wins out over the next few years.
I do think the Orioles are gonna be good for the next few years, as will the Rays. I think the Jays are going to crest and decline and the Yankees are going to fade a bit, as both those teams have invested very heavily in being good over the next three years or so, yet both nonetheless have weaknesses in their rosters. And hopefully the Red Sox can thread the needle by combining young talent with the ability to spend on smart acquisitions like Yoshida.
I’m honestly done with hoping they thread the needle or whatever. Combine young talent with good signings has been a 4 year mantra, and yet Yoshida is actually probably the FA exception. Most of it has been waste or wheel spinning. This is not a FO rehash or anything else. It is just — I’m tired of half full glasses or wait-till-next year. A .500 team that plays ugly is a huge bummer, and this is just not fun. Just wait...they're going to be competitive* every year. That's Bloom and company's goal over the last 3+ years. (*depends on one's definition of a competitive team) Is a .500 and above team considered competitive?
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Post by Guidas on Jun 6, 2023 15:26:20 GMT -5
I’m honestly done with hoping they thread the needle or whatever. Combine young talent with good signings has been a 4 year mantra, and yet Yoshida is actually probably the FA exception. Most of it has been waste or wheel spinning. This is not a FO rehash or anything else. It is just — I’m tired of half full glasses or wait-till-next year. A .500 team that plays ugly is a huge bummer, and this is just not fun. Just wait...they're going to be competitive* every year. That's Bloom and company's goal over the last 3+ years. (*depends on one's definition of a competitive team) Is a .500 and above team considered competitive? I believe the original quote was "a perennial playoff contender." This became a "competitive team" after 2020, then back to a "perennial contender" after the 2021 season.
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