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6/6-6/8 Red Sox @ Guardians Series Thread
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Post by notstarboard on Jun 9, 2023 12:03:51 GMT -5
His WAR is higher because he's been substantially better on both offense and defense. Here are some pre-2023 vs. 2023 comparisons:
wRC+: 107/123 wOBA: .331/.355 (also has the highest xwOBA of his career at .361; next highest in any season is .340) OAA: -7/+3 WAR/500 PA: 1.8/3.8
How much bigger of a jump could you reasonably expect from a player?
Let’s see in a month. Not atypically, he is riding a burst to cumulative numbers. March/April: .308/.372/.479 May: .276/.364/.425 June: .222/.333/.407 First 117 ABs: 4 HR last 114 ABs: 1 HR This is what most hitters do, though; there's usually a mix of hot and cold months. You could just as easily frame this as a few week slump blemishing an otherwise awesome campaign.
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Post by manfred on Jun 9, 2023 12:07:05 GMT -5
Let’s see in a month. Not atypically, he is riding a burst to cumulative numbers. March/April: .308/.372/.479 May: .276/.364/.425 June: .222/.333/.407 First 117 ABs: 4 HR last 114 ABs: 1 HR Did you just go from saying "his season numbers look basically the same as always" to "sure, his season numbers are different from past seasons, but they might not be in a month"?
If you want to say we should hold off before concluding he's a totally different kind of player, that's fair. But so far he's undeniably having a career year, and the WAR total makes sense given the underlying numbers, which was the original thing you were commenting on.
(And for what it's worth, the May stats are themselves above his pre-2023 norms (116 wRC+ vs. 107), and the June sample size is too small to warrant mention (and is being held down by a .250 BABIP in any case).)
No, I still see his current numbers as in line with previous good seasons. But I also see him trending lower. Both can be true. Bottom line is I don’t see this as a “breakout.” I see him as a decent player having a pretty good year.
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Post by manfred on Jun 9, 2023 12:09:25 GMT -5
Let’s see in a month. Not atypically, he is riding a burst to cumulative numbers. March/April: .308/.372/.479 May: .276/.364/.425 June: .222/.333/.407 First 117 ABs: 4 HR last 114 ABs: 1 HR This is what most hitters do, though; there's usually a mix of hot and cold months. You could just as easily frame this as a few week slump blemishing an otherwise awesome campaign. But it is typical of AV. You look back, and you see he tends to have a couple really big months and a bunch of mediocre ones. I wonder if this is part of his benching. If he played at or around his “good” stretches for a full year, he’d be a really good player. But he always mixes in lengthy mediocre stretches. I wonder if Cora is on him about consistency.
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Post by cba82 on Jun 9, 2023 12:17:06 GMT -5
“I wonder if Cora is on him about consistency.” — Not sure that can be dialed up on demand, unfortunately.
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Post by manfred on Jun 9, 2023 12:37:06 GMT -5
“I wonder if Cora is on him about consistency.” — Not sure that can be dialed up on demand, unfortunately. Maybe. But if it is a focus thing, a prep thing, an effort thing… it can be.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 9, 2023 12:50:07 GMT -5
“I wonder if Cora is on him about consistency.” — Not sure that can be dialed up on demand, unfortunately. Maybe. But if it is a focus thing, a prep thing, an effort thing… it can be. What I don't get about the Verdugo thing is earlier in the year he got a lot of praise for busting his tail down the line on what seemed like an easy out grounder and it forced an error or he beat it out, the exacts of it escapes my mind but the gist was he hustled down the line. His quote was about how Cora and Co. challenged him in the offseason to be more consistent to hustle and be that type of player and he said how he took it to heart and was all about that. Fast forward a month or so and things obviously not going so good with the team right now and it's a complete 180 from that, he loafs down the line and doesn't run it out. Maybe I'm putting too much into that one play the other day that got him benched but it just rubs me the wrong way that a month ago when things were going alright and the team was doing pretty well it was all positives and they hit a rough patch and he's pulling this crap. Makes him look like a front runner who will play hard for a winning team but when the going gets tough he'll quit on em. If that's the case then I don't want him or guys like him on the team. Maybe that's harsh and easy to say as a fan but just my thoughts on it anyway.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jun 9, 2023 13:52:20 GMT -5
I don't feel like the organization is going in the right direction at all. Why would I feel that way when the on-field product is in its second year of crappiness and the farm system, while improved, is still middle of the pack, which is a nice way of saying average and average is a nice way of saying mediocre. For me, the way they stepped in it with Dermody is an example of their dysfunction. Whether someone is a homophobe or one who believes LGBT people are whole human beings who deserve respect, we all agree that using Dermody created unwanted attention and controversy. And for what? The guy is -.5 WAR with a 6.59 FIP over 31 games. He is the definition of suck. They could have released him when they learned of the social media posting and schlepped back to the same Dumpster where they found him. The guy they pulled out to replace him would not have diminished the quality of their break-glass pitching or their chances of winning what turned out to be Dermody's only start one bit. A few days from now we'll have forgotten who the hell Matt Dermody was. But the way they walked into an unforced PR embarrassment typifies their decision-making ability, IMO. Ok but the farm system just two years ago was bottom of the barrel, perhaps the worst in the league. To jump to middle of the pack after just a couple years shows enough improvement to me to say that they are moving in the right direction because let's face it baseball has become a game where you absolutely need a strong farm system to sustain success. Gone are the days of using financial might and trades to acquire talent. Teams are hesitant to even trade middle of the pack players these days at least it seems to me. As for the Dermody stuff, I'm not getting into that garbage since I couldn't give two you know what's about that. That doesn't make me feel one way or the other about the direction of the organization. If it does you then okay, that's your prerogative. Neither FG or MLB PL had them at the bottom of the barrel in 2021. PL had them 24th at the start of the season and then they moved up to 12th at mid-season with the Mayer pick and the progress of Casas, Duran and some other guys, but whatever. You totally miss, or choose to ignore, the point with the Dermody stuff. It's not about one's views of LGBT people. It's about sticking a pencil in your own eye PR-wise. The next time some idiot gets caught saying something racist or bigoted at Fenway, the Red Sox PR flacks will issue a statement saying they have no tolerance for bigotry. It's clearly not true that they have NO tolerance for bigotry. They gave up their credibility on that issue for a bush league P who got his ass kicked in one game and then got his walking papers.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 9, 2023 14:16:52 GMT -5
the period they’re in now reminds me almost exactly of the period the bruins were in for a couple years in the mid 2010’s Had to do a tear down and attempt to retool on the fly. Leads to some uneven, mediocre play in the present. I DO think that they are headed in the right direction organizationally. I do think this team is more likable than last years team- they don’t fold like a cheap tent. But in the present it’s an uninspiring product. They’ll likely end up around .500 and will miss the playoffs If that's the case, do you think that Henry and Werner will move on a get new leadership? This seems a lot like the roller coaster they said they wanted to avoid, only without all those flashy AL East pennants and World Series titles that came with the last roller coaster rides.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 9, 2023 14:18:28 GMT -5
Ok but the farm system just two years ago was bottom of the barrel, perhaps the worst in the league. To jump to middle of the pack after just a couple years shows enough improvement to me to say that they are moving in the right direction because let's face it baseball has become a game where you absolutely need a strong farm system to sustain success. Gone are the days of using financial might and trades to acquire talent. Teams are hesitant to even trade middle of the pack players these days at least it seems to me. As for the Dermody stuff, I'm not getting into that garbage since I couldn't give two you know what's about that. That doesn't make me feel one way or the other about the direction of the organization. If it does you then okay, that's your prerogative. Neither FG or MLB PL had them at the bottom of the barrel in 2021. PL had them 24th at the start of the season and then they moved up to 12th at mid-season with the Mayer pick and the progress of Casas, Duran and some other guys, but whatever. You totally miss, or choose to ignore, the point with the Dermody stuff. It's not about one's views of LGBT people. It's about sticking a pencil in your own eye PR-wise. The next time some idiot gets caught saying something racist or bigoted at Fenway, the Red Sox PR flacks will issue a statement saying they have no tolerance for bigotry. It's clearly not true that they have NO tolerance for bigotry. They gave up their credibility on that issue for a bush league P who got his ass kicked in one game and then got his walking papers. And in 2020 the farm was basically Casas and Houck but even so to jump from 24th which is pretty much bottom of the barrel, it's bottom 1/3 of the league to 12th by mid season which is almost upper 1/3 is a heck of a jump so once again that's a large positive jump in my mind. Not getting into the Dermody stuff, it's completely irrelevant to me and he's now gone so as I said I don't care one bit about it.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 9, 2023 14:19:01 GMT -5
the period they’re in now reminds me almost exactly of the period the bruins were in for a couple years in the mid 2010’s Had to do a tear down and attempt to retool on the fly. Leads to some uneven, mediocre play in the present. I DO think that they are headed in the right direction organizationally. I do think this team is more likable than last years team- they don’t fold like a cheap tent. But in the present it’s an uninspiring product. They’ll likely end up around .500 and will miss the playoffs If that's the case, do you think that Henry and Werner will move on a get new leadership? This seems a lot like the roller coaster they said they wanted to avoid, only without all those flashy AL East pennants and World Series titles that came with the last roller coaster rides. I think they’d try a new manager first. It’s what the Bruins did.
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Post by majikthise on Jun 9, 2023 14:19:08 GMT -5
Pitching isn’t going to get any better until the front office makes a point to improve it. Since Houck was drafted I think the highest pick spent on one was 99. When John Hart rebuilt Atlanta he said he was going to make a point to draft and develop pitching and any trade made would get at least an interesting arm back. Right. Always take best player available but it feels like we are being too risk averse when it comes to pitching. We rarely seem to go after that guy with the electric arm, opting for high floor, but less talented pitching later. Those guys have so little margin for error that best case scenario you have a bunch of 5's, bullpen and AAAA arms. That would be fine if the hitters we take early turn out to be studs, but even those are rarely panning out in recent draft history. This feels like a systemic failure, and something needs to be overhauled. Just my view from the outside.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 9, 2023 14:20:13 GMT -5
“I wonder if Cora is on him about consistency.” — Not sure that can be dialed up on demand, unfortunately. Defensively, this could be said about the whole infield minus the catchers.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 9, 2023 14:22:27 GMT -5
If that's the case, do you think that Henry and Werner will move on a get new leadership? This seems a lot like the roller coaster they said they wanted to avoid, only without all those flashy AL East pennants and World Series titles that came with the last roller coaster rides. I think they’d try a new manager first. It’s what the Bruins did. I agree, I think unless the train falls completely and utterly off the track the rest of the season they give Bloom some more rope for better or for worse. Which probably will have half the board up in arms and half the board in agreement. As you said I think the scapegoat would be Cora this year.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jun 9, 2023 14:28:28 GMT -5
Neither FG or MLB PL had them at the bottom of the barrel in 2021. PL had them 24th at the start of the season and then they moved up to 12th at mid-season with the Mayer pick and the progress of Casas, Duran and some other guys, but whatever. You totally miss, or choose to ignore, the point with the Dermody stuff. It's not about one's views of LGBT people. It's about sticking a pencil in your own eye PR-wise. The next time some idiot gets caught saying something racist or bigoted at Fenway, the Red Sox PR flacks will issue a statement saying they have no tolerance for bigotry. It's clearly not true that they have NO tolerance for bigotry. They gave up their credibility on that issue for a bush league P who got his ass kicked in one game and then got his walking papers. And in 2020 the farm was basically Casas and Houck but even so to jump from 24th which is pretty much bottom of the barrel, it's bottom 1/3 of the league to 12th by mid season which is almost upper 1/3 is a heck of a jump so once again that's a large positive jump in my mind. Not getting into the Dermody stuff, it's completely irrelevant to me and he's now gone so as I said I don't care one bit about it. Well, that's three years ago. You said two, but again, whatever. Let's move on to this weekend. In a year of diminished interest for me, I'll watch the MFY games in an irrational rage. Hatred is a great motivator.
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