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Post by jmei on Jun 12, 2023 14:29:30 GMT -5
Bello has six career starts on six+ days' rest (127 total PAs). That's a pretty aggressively small sample size to be drawing any conclusions. I'm just looking at the six starts he's made beginning with his first good outing (by xwOBA), under the assumption that he's using the same between-starts routines for 5 days rest for all of those starts. We know that his 6-day routine (or routines) has to be different.
Let's adjust each xwOBA by normalizing for the season xwOBA vs. RHP of the offense he was facing. The four starts on 5 days rest are .266, .278, .259, .239. The two starts on 6 days rest are .393, .398. (Strike % is distinctly lower, exactly as you'd expect.) That's being the 3rd best SP in MLB vs. the 4th worst (current xwOBA of the 150 SP with the most PA).
The odds of this happening at random are 1 in 5027. I'm not sure that using an even smaller sample size (both by reducing the number of starts and using an odd metric (normalized xwOBA vs. RHP)) is doing you any favors here. Citing odds or p-values for analysis that is not based on null hypothesis testing is just statistical hand waving tomfoolery.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 12, 2023 18:16:55 GMT -5
Forgetting fan bias, this series begs the question, Who's the bigger disappointment, Casas or Volpe ?
Casas with marginal defense and no in-game power or Volpe with below average defense and no bat but good base running instincts ?
My vote goes to Volpe because of higher expectations which may or may not be New York hype generated.
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