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6/13 Gameday Thread: Brunch In Salem, No Coffey 'Til Tonight
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 14, 2023 12:10:48 GMT -5
These are good problems to have. Pretty sure if Story comes back playing well (or even decent) He'll be tradable if they want to go that route. I do like him at 2nd MUCH more than short, though. If his elbow is fixed and his arm strength back to average for a SS I feel Story's best fit is at SS for at least the short term 2024 outlook for the team. That's a big if though but at least we'll probably get somewhat of an idea on that for August based off the recent report on what Story feels his timeline might be. He'd be the best SS (on this team, anyway) in the short term for sure - if his arm can handle it.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 14, 2023 12:13:20 GMT -5
These are good problems to have. Pretty sure if Story comes back playing well (or even decent) He'll be tradable if they want to go that route. I do like him at 2nd MUCH more than short, though. Agree there although that depends on his arm. He's (Story) definitely the best second baseman we have. ADD: Yorke will never be as good a defender as Story at 2B. I doubt if the trade Story to make room for Yorke. Either could be traded, and agree that Yorke will never be as good of a defender. But they might trade Story to get some salary relief and a perhaps a better return knowing they have a (likely) very replacement, assuming the development continues. I like Meidroth, too. Like I said, good problems to have.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 14, 2023 12:21:58 GMT -5
I don't have access to any batted ball data, but it seems like Meidroth would be a big time xwOBA overperformer this year. There's been a lot of ground balls not hit all that hard that went down as hits. Still, you could knock 60 points off his BA and he's still interesting. At Portland: IsoD .128 IsoP .188 While were talking Portland, two things that should be mentioned... Rafaela would have a 16 game hitting streak and 21 game on base streak if he wasn't used as a pinch hitter a few games ago. Zeferjahn has dialed it up a notch and striking out almost 2 batters an inning. If he can cut down on the walks we might have a late inning reliever in the making.
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Post by jaffinator on Jun 14, 2023 15:09:07 GMT -5
I'm going to go strongly against the grain here, and just say that I don't really believe in Drohan or Meidroth as much as some here do. I find it hard to believe in pitching prospects without a carrying pitch, normally a fastball, or in non-athlete college position player picks. The caveats there are that Drohan has encouraging results on the fastball and can maybe add more strength and speed, and that Meidroth does have some strength and has been noticeably better at lifting and driving pitches this season, which hopefully continues and advances.
But if that doesn't happen with Meidroth, how are you going to carry a corner infielder who isn't a great fielder and doesn't have raw power?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 14, 2023 19:25:07 GMT -5
I'm going to go strongly against the grain here, and just say that I don't really believe in Drohan or Meidroth as much as some here do. I find it hard to believe in pitching prospects without a carrying pitch, normally a fastball, or in non-athlete college position player picks. The caveats there are that Drohan has encouraging results on the fastball and can maybe add more strength and speed, and that Meidroth does have some strength and has been noticeably better at lifting and driving pitches this season, which hopefully continues and advances. But if that doesn't happen with Meidroth, how are you going to carry a corner infielder who isn't a great fielder and doesn't have raw power? He's primarily a second baseman and he's at least solid defensively. He's playing 3B now because Yorke can't. His bat profiles well for a middle infielder.
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Post by jaffinator on Jun 14, 2023 22:47:33 GMT -5
I'm going to go strongly against the grain here, and just say that I don't really believe in Drohan or Meidroth as much as some here do. I find it hard to believe in pitching prospects without a carrying pitch, normally a fastball, or in non-athlete college position player picks. The caveats there are that Drohan has encouraging results on the fastball and can maybe add more strength and speed, and that Meidroth does have some strength and has been noticeably better at lifting and driving pitches this season, which hopefully continues and advances. But if that doesn't happen with Meidroth, how are you going to carry a corner infielder who isn't a great fielder and doesn't have raw power? He's primarily a second baseman and he's at least solid defensively. He's playing 3B now because Yorke can't. His bat profiles well for a middle infielder. He was not an excellent second baseman in college and I don't think he has the range for second in the pros. Optimistically, and this is only my opinion, he's fringe average there. I don't know if the arm is good enough for third long term, but if he's not going to be great at either (again, just my opinion) put him where him not being great hurts less. He very much doesn't have a profile that supports putting him in LF. If he ends up a solid (average) fielder, that would be wonderful and it would put a lot less pressure on him developing more power. It's possible, and I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again, but I don't see it. Anyways, this is kinda why I'm hesitant about drafting non-athlete position players out of college. I also want to make it clear that I don't think he has no shot at the big leagues and I don't hate the guy or anything. The site has him #23, and I think that's largely fair. But let's not worry about for instance whether there's a logjam in the infield coming up. Let's worry about whether he can field and hit the ball for power enough to be a relevant part of long term plans.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 14, 2023 23:01:27 GMT -5
He's primarily a second baseman and he's at least solid defensively. He's playing 3B now because Yorke can't. His bat profiles well for a middle infielder. He was not an excellent second baseman in college and I don't think he has the range for second in the pros. Optimistically, and this is only my opinion, he's fringe average there. I don't know if the arm is good enough for third long term, but if he's not going to be great at either (again, just my opinion) put him where him not being great hurts less. He very much doesn't have a profile that supports putting him in LF. If he ends up a solid (average) fielder, that would be wonderful and it would put a lot less pressure on him developing more power. It's possible, and I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again, but I don't see it. Anyways, this is kinda why I'm hesitant about drafting non-athlete position players out of college. I also want to make it clear that I don't think he has no shot at the big leagues and I don't hate the guy or anything. The site has him #23, and I think that's largely fair. But let's not worry about for instance whether there's a logjam in the infield coming up. Let's worry about whether he can field and hit the ball for power enough to be a relevant part of long term plans. To me, that's an over reaction to my original point that Story and Mayer appear to have the 2B & SS spots covered for a long time and therefore the path to the majors becomes utility player. I like Yorke a lot but I don't see him as a starter for the Red Sox either.
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Post by jaffinator on Jun 14, 2023 23:31:33 GMT -5
We're talking about projecting out a guy who has 50 PA at AA and a 30 year old with now a bit of an injury history two years from now. Let's wait and see what happens. If you assume there's an 80% chance that Mayer is going to be the nailed on starting shortstop in two years (generous) and there's an 80% chance Story is going to be the nailed on starting second baseman in two years (extremely generous) there's a 36% you're going to need someone else to play there. That doesn't include the fact that Story has a player opt-out in two and a half seasons, so if things are going great for him he can leave 50m/2years on the table and see what's out there. If you think there's a 10% chance of that, now there's nearly a 50% of needing to fill a position.
Separately, being solid((average) at a tool in baseball is a monumental achievement. It should be celebrated when it happens and not just assumed. For instance, I think Mayer's a great shortstop prospect defensively. I really like the actions and he makes the footwork look second nature at times. All that said, there's a real legitimate possibility he comes in as a below average shortstop defensively. He might end up bigger and he doesn't have tons of range to spare. If that happens, it's not absolutely inconceivable that he's moved off the position. I don't think it will happen, but there's risk in all of these things.
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Post by keninten on Jun 15, 2023 0:16:35 GMT -5
He was not an excellent second baseman in college and I don't think he has the range for second in the pros. Optimistically, and this is only my opinion, he's fringe average there. I don't know if the arm is good enough for third long term, but if he's not going to be great at either (again, just my opinion) put him where him not being great hurts less. He very much doesn't have a profile that supports putting him in LF. If he ends up a solid (average) fielder, that would be wonderful and it would put a lot less pressure on him developing more power. It's possible, and I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again, but I don't see it. Anyways, this is kinda why I'm hesitant about drafting non-athlete position players out of college. I also want to make it clear that I don't think he has no shot at the big leagues and I don't hate the guy or anything. The site has him #23, and I think that's largely fair. But let's not worry about for instance whether there's a logjam in the infield coming up. Let's worry about whether he can field and hit the ball for power enough to be a relevant part of long term plans. To me, that's an over reaction to my original point that Story and Mayer appear to have the 2B & SS spots covered for a long time and therefore the path to the majors becomes utility player. I like Yorke a lot but I don't see him as a starter for the Red Sox either. Mikey Romero might have something to say about this.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 15, 2023 2:06:40 GMT -5
We're talking about projecting out a guy who has 50 PA at AA and a 30 year old with now a bit of an injury history two years from now. Let's wait and see what happens. If you assume there's an 80% chance that Mayer is going to be the nailed on starting shortstop in two years (generous) and there's an 80% chance Story is going to be the nailed on starting second baseman in two years (extremely generous) there's a 36% you're going to need someone else to play there. That doesn't include the fact that Story has a player opt-out in two and a half seasons, so if things are going great for him he can leave 50m/2years on the table and see what's out there. If you think there's a 10% chance of that, now there's nearly a 50% of needing to fill a position. Separately, being solid((average) at a tool in baseball is a monumental achievement. It should be celebrated when it happens and not just assumed. For instance, I think Mayer's a great shortstop prospect defensively. I really like the actions and he makes the footwork look second nature at times. All that said, there's a real legitimate possibility he comes in as a below average shortstop defensively. He might end up bigger and he doesn't have tons of range to spare. If that happens, it's not absolutely inconceivable that he's moved off the position. I don't think it will happen, but there's risk in all of these things. Then we're pretty much in agreement. If there's a 36% chance (generous) one or the other won't fulfill the hopes, there's a 64% chance they both will.
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Post by jaffinator on Jun 15, 2023 13:04:32 GMT -5
We're talking about projecting out a guy who has 50 PA at AA and a 30 year old with now a bit of an injury history two years from now. Let's wait and see what happens. If you assume there's an 80% chance that Mayer is going to be the nailed on starting shortstop in two years (generous) and there's an 80% chance Story is going to be the nailed on starting second baseman in two years (extremely generous) there's a 36% you're going to need someone else to play there. That doesn't include the fact that Story has a player opt-out in two and a half seasons, so if things are going great for him he can leave 50m/2years on the table and see what's out there. If you think there's a 10% chance of that, now there's nearly a 50% of needing to fill a position. Separately, being solid((average) at a tool in baseball is a monumental achievement. It should be celebrated when it happens and not just assumed. For instance, I think Mayer's a great shortstop prospect defensively. I really like the actions and he makes the footwork look second nature at times. All that said, there's a real legitimate possibility he comes in as a below average shortstop defensively. He might end up bigger and he doesn't have tons of range to spare. If that happens, it's not absolutely inconceivable that he's moved off the position. I don't think it will happen, but there's risk in all of these things. Then we're pretty much in agreement. If there's a 36% chance (generous) one or the other won't fulfill the hopes, there's a 64% chance they both will. 36% being the absolute minimum. I think it's a lot higher. Then taking account the opt-in, that's minimum ~50%. Besides which if something has a 1/3 chance of happening (and this has a better chance than that), the club absolutely needs to have a plan for it.
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