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6/27-6/29 Red Sox vs. Marlins Series Thread
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jun 27, 2023 21:19:50 GMT -5
This team is so horrible vs the National League.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jun 27, 2023 21:20:35 GMT -5
If this team doesn't sell this deadline I swear... They'll probably do the buy and sell approach again
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 27, 2023 21:21:19 GMT -5
If this team doesn't sell this deadline I swear... Oh they’ll sell. They’ll just also buy too for some reason. Its the Chaim Bloom special.
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Post by Montana Lemonious-Craig on Jun 27, 2023 21:27:34 GMT -5
If this team doesn't sell this deadline I swear... Oh they’ll sell. They’ll just also buy too for some reason. Its the Chaim Bloom special. Guy has one kinda weird trade deadline and now that’s his “special.” Chain haters are more annoying than the unabashed supporters
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Post by yuchangclan on Jun 27, 2023 21:39:32 GMT -5
We are exactly halfway to this post from April 27th coming true(except the part about the Orioles):
September 29th: “considering everything, I think 80-80 at this point is great. We have 2 games left against the 4th place Orioles, so we can catch up ground. All the secondary stats show we are no worse than the 7th best team in the AL.”
I knew when I read it that Manfred nailed it.
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Post by briam on Jun 27, 2023 21:47:30 GMT -5
Oh they’ll sell. They’ll just also buy too for some reason. Its the Chaim Bloom special. Guy has one kinda weird trade deadline and now that’s his “special.” Chain haters are more annoying than the unabashed supporters When you inexplicably go over the CBT by roughly 6-7 million for a team that doesn’t make the playoffs, and doubled down on that stance at the deadline, the criticism is fair.
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Post by greenmonster on Jun 27, 2023 21:50:11 GMT -5
I just checked the box score and see that the Red Sox didn't make an error tonight.......not the game I watched
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Post by notstarboard on Jun 27, 2023 21:57:42 GMT -5
This is sort of a weird year where I'm not too excited about buying or selling. Most of our outright holes are only holes because of guys who are injured, and the team isn't good enough to want to pay a premium to fill those temporary holes at the deadline. And while you can never have too many prospects, I don't think this team is in a place where it really needs to tear things down for prospects either unless playoff odds are quite slim; ideally we'd just be winning more games given the quality of the roster we already have.
A fun game within the game: We're getting ever closer to fielding a full roster of injured players. Really just need some outfield help now that Duvall's healthy again.
SP: Sale, Houck, Kluber, Mata RP: Schreiber, Kelly, Rodriguez, Bleier, Mills, Sherriff INF: Story, Mondesi, Chang, Reyes C: McGuire
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 27, 2023 21:59:31 GMT -5
Oh they’ll sell. They’ll just also buy too for some reason. Its the Chaim Bloom special. Guy has one kinda weird trade deadline and now that’s his “special.” Chain haters are more annoying than the unabashed supporters True, it was one year, but it was a very similar situation last year (the team was actually even more injured last year) and he bought then. You know its coming man. Its so obvious that its hard to watch anything related to the front office. I try to just go to individual games and enjoy them right now than worry about the short term or the playoffs this season.
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Post by notstarboard on Jun 27, 2023 22:02:35 GMT -5
Guy has one kinda weird trade deadline and now that’s his “special.” Chain haters are more annoying than the unabashed supporters When you inexplicably go over the CBT by roughly 6-7 million for a team that doesn’t make the playoffs, and doubled down on that stance at the deadline, the criticism is fair. You don't need to agree with the decision - I wanted JDM and Eovaldi both to get moved, personally, and think it was a mistake not to move at least one to get under the luxury tax threshold - but it is not inexplicable. It's been explained in great detail on this forum many times, including in the past few days.
The 2022 team had enough talent that it would have had a legit shot in October if guys got healthy and they went on a run, so it's at least justifiable to not want to move guys with high ceilings unless you feel the value is good enough to make it worth your while.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 27, 2023 22:07:46 GMT -5
That 2022 team was never going to touch the Astros. Or Yankees for that matter. It was extremely obvious even at the time. Could they have made the playoffs? Sure, but they were never going to the World Series.
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Post by sam01 on Jun 27, 2023 22:07:49 GMT -5
This is sort of a weird year where I'm not too excited about buying or selling. I've never been more interested in selling, tbh. I never hope the Sox stink, but the assets acquired could be game changing this trade deadline. Every contender in the league could use Justin Turner at 1B/3B or DH. Every team could use Paxton. 90 percent of the teams could use Verdugo. Every team needs bullpen help. The prospects acquired could help bring future pieces in trades or they can dream on them.
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Post by notstarboard on Jun 27, 2023 22:09:38 GMT -5
Guy has one kinda weird trade deadline and now that’s his “special.” Chain haters are more annoying than the unabashed supporters True, it was one year, but it was a very similar situation last year (the team was actually even more injured last year) and he bought then. You know its coming man. Its so obvious that its hard to watch anything related to the front office. I try to just go to individual games and enjoy them right now than worry about the short term or the playoffs this season. I don't know how you think that it's already decided in late June, and that this (extremely premature) decision is necessarily the wrong one.
There is nothing wrong with doing a mix of buying and selling at the deadline. The issue last year was just barely staying over the luxury tax, which gives you many relevant penalties but without the theoretical benefit of extra wins on the roster from going over by a lot more.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jun 27, 2023 22:15:06 GMT -5
Last thought - Lenny D on the post game said Ort has the best stuff on the staff. Yay for tomorrow!
Night all! 😀
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Post by notstarboard on Jun 27, 2023 22:16:08 GMT -5
This is sort of a weird year where I'm not too excited about buying or selling. I've never been more interested in selling, tbh. I never hope the Sox stink, but the assets acquired could be game changing this trade deadline. Every contender in the league could use Justin Turner at 1B/3B or DH. Every team could use Paxton. 90 percent of the teams could use Verdugo. Every team needs bullpen help. The prospects acquired could help bring future pieces in trades or they can dream on them. I mean, sure, but this is true just about every year if you're willing to full sell to the point of trading guys like Verdugo who are productive and under control for 2024 as well. That's sort of the issue; if you have a ton of productive and desirable players, you're probably not bad enough to full sell anyway. If the Sox are bad enough to full sell, it probably means that many of the Jansens, Paxtons, and Turners of the world have been ineffective or injured.
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ericmvan
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Posts: 8,951
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 27, 2023 22:16:27 GMT -5
I don't know how Whitlock looked -- I woke up and checked the score -- but Statcast has him with crazy bad karma. HH is hard hits, SO Soft outs, and I think you can figure out the other two. "Prob" is the probabilistic total of a batted ball type, "Disc" (for discrete) is the above or below .500 xBA count, and Act is Actual hits or outs recorded.
Prob Disc Act HH 3.5 3 6 HO 5.5 6 3 SH 3.2 3 5 SO 5.8 6 4
It's not often that a guy gives up just three hard hit balls with an xBA of .50 or more ... and 11 hits total.
The .356 xBA on soft contact is also a factor here -- MLB average is .226. Difference was bloops. Again, not too many games with a .556 BA on soft contact, versus the average .225.
(Note that my hard hit starts at 96, which is what it would be if they weren't rounding off to make pretty.)
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Post by notstarboard on Jun 27, 2023 22:22:18 GMT -5
That 2022 team was never going to touch the Astros. Or Yankees for that matter. It was extremely obvious even at the time. Could they have made the playoffs? Sure, but they were never going to the World Series. 1) The playoffs are a crapshoot. I'm sure 2021 Atlanta and 2019 Washington had no chance either?
2) A rotation headed by a healthy Sale, Paxton, and Eovaldi would have been formidable against any opponent, especially with a top 10 offense (only 2 runs shy of Houston in the regular season) to back it up. Bullpen weaknesses could have been mitigated by pushing players like Wacha and Hill into bulk roles.
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Post by rhswanzey on Jun 27, 2023 22:27:19 GMT -5
Ian might be right that David Hamilton isn’t a shortstop. But expected/actual metrics can’t account for how awful the defense is. We’re basically just watching July 2022 again, except the starting pitching is ahead of what everyone behind Kutter was giving us that month.
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Post by manfred on Jun 27, 2023 22:27:35 GMT -5
I don't know how Whitlock looked -- I woke up and checked the score -- but Statcast has him with crazy bad karma. HH is hard hits, SO Soft outs, and I think you can figure out the other two. "Prob" is the probabilistic total of a batted ball type, "Disc" (for discrete) is the above or below .500 xBA count, and Act is Actual hits or outs recorded.
Prob Disc Act HH 3.5 3 6 HO 5.5 6 3 SH 3.2 3 5 SO 5.8 6 4
It's not often that a guy gives up just three hard hit balls with an xBA of .50 or more ... and 11 hits total.
The .356 xBA on soft contact is also a factor here -- MLB average is .226. Difference was bloops. Again, not too many games with a .556 BA on soft contact, versus the average .225.
(Note that my hard hit starts at 96, which is what it would be if they weren't rounding off to make pretty.)
He really didn’t give up 11. The scoring was crazy. The Sox infield was brutal. I think Kiké was the only guy who made routine plays.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 27, 2023 22:28:46 GMT -5
That 2022 team was never going to touch the Astros. Or Yankees for that matter. It was extremely obvious even at the time. Could they have made the playoffs? Sure, but they were never going to the World Series. 1) The playoffs are a crapshoot. I'm sure 2021 Atlanta and 2019 Washington had no chance either?
2) A rotation headed by a healthy Sale, Paxton, and Eovaldi would have been formidable against any opponent, especially with a top 10 offense (only 2 runs shy of Houston in the regular season) to back it up. Bullpen weaknesses could have been mitigated by pushing players like Wacha and Hill into bulk roles.
Did you watch the 2022 playoffs? The Red Sox weren’t close to those teams.
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Post by Smittyw on Jun 27, 2023 22:35:59 GMT -5
Last thought - Lenny D on the post game said Ort has the best stuff on the staff. Yay for tomorrow! Night all! 😀 Extend him now!
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 27, 2023 22:59:23 GMT -5
1) The playoffs are a crapshoot. I'm sure 2021 Atlanta and 2019 Washington had no chance either?
2) A rotation headed by a healthy Sale, Paxton, and Eovaldi would have been formidable against any opponent, especially with a top 10 offense (only 2 runs shy of Houston in the regular season) to back it up. Bullpen weaknesses could have been mitigated by pushing players like Wacha and Hill into bulk roles.
Did you watch the 2022 playoffs? The Red Sox weren’t close to those teams. Again. Its the PLAYOFFS. Did anyone expect the dodgers to have an historical collapse in the playoffs after their historically successful regular season? Just like in March madness and the bruins this season. Just because your regular season record was good does not mean anything in the playoffs
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 27, 2023 23:26:24 GMT -5
Yankees lose! To the A's. Higanshioka fans with the tying run on 2nd and go-ahead on first.
Also losing: the O's, Jays, and Astros (and Rays).
Anges leading 4-1, Mariners tied.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,951
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 27, 2023 23:49:04 GMT -5
This is sort of a weird year where I'm not too excited about buying or selling. Most of our outright holes are only holes because of guys who are injured, and the team isn't good enough to want to pay a premium to fill those temporary holes at the deadline. And while you can never have too many prospects, I don't think this team is in a place where it really needs to tear things down for prospects either unless playoff odds are quite slim; ideally we'd just be winning more games given the quality of the roster we already have. I couldn't agree more that you stand pat on the deadline at the MLB level. The injured guys are your additions.
I might trade one of our SS prospects for an equally valuable AAA starting pitchers who projects to be an adequate 4/5 starter if called up. (Ideally, one with an upside the selling team is unaware of, of course.) But maybe Walter has turned a corner -- the team seems to think so.
It's not often that a team has all three of the guys on their pre-season SS deth chart on the 60 day IL at midpseason ... and the great cheap pickup that was saving our bacon on the IL as well. That's just cruelty. I do wonder why Arroyo isn't playing SS, though.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 27, 2023 23:50:42 GMT -5
Did you watch the 2022 playoffs? The Red Sox weren’t close to those teams. Again. Its the PLAYOFFS. Did anyone expect the dodgers to have an historical collapse in the playoffs after their historically successful regular season? Just like in March madness and the bruins this season. Just because your regular season record was good does not mean anything in the playoffs It's a crapshoot to an extent. So yeah an 80 win team could squeak onto the playoffs and win the world series, but the odds are highly against it. Oh it will happen eventually but if I have a flawed team that isnt overly likely I'm not going to hang my hat on that chance. If your team is the heavy underdog, sure they can spring an upset, maybe even 2, but the goal is to win the world Series. What are the odds a mediocre caliber team is going to spring upsets in 4 straight series? Not enough that I'd go for it with a team like the 2022 Red Sox and if the Sox sink themselves much further I'll be saying the same thing about the 2023 Red Sox. Upsets happen, but keep in mind the Sox were the best regular season team in baseball the last 3 times they won the series and the time before that they were a hot 98 win team that was actually the most talented team. There has never been a .525 Red Sox team that has won the Series. What does that tell you?
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