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7/4-7/6 Red Sox vs. Rangers Series Thread
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,824
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Post by nomar on Jul 7, 2023 8:31:51 GMT -5
Delusional trashbag Hes also not a good enough hitter for DH Healthy Trevor Story is 100% good enough to DH. He'd probably be the 2nd best in the league behind Ohtani, not counting Harper He has a 99 wRC+ (below league average) in his last 240 games and a 110 for his career. Don’t see how that’s even remotely true. Justin Turner is better |
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jul 7, 2023 8:49:56 GMT -5
Healthy Trevor Story is 100% good enough to DH. He'd probably be the 2nd best in the league behind Ohtani, not counting Harper He has a 99 wRC+ (below league average) in his last 240 games and a 110 for his career. Don’t see how that’s even remotely true. Justin Turner is better Give me Story/162 stats vs Turner/162, just my preference |
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Post by manfred on Jul 7, 2023 9:10:54 GMT -5
He has a 99 wRC+ (below league average) in his last 240 games and a 110 for his career. Don’t see how that’s even remotely true. Justin Turner is better Give me Story/162 stats vs Turner/162, just my preference The team has strongly hinted they don’t want Story to DH. He’ll be back when he can field. |
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Post by Guidas on Jul 7, 2023 9:11:56 GMT -5
This in no way proves Duvall will get hot. Also, Duran didn't suffer a wrist injury, one of the toughest injuries for a position player to come back from quickly. I'll add that Duvall's current line since coming back from injury is almost identical to his averages over 315 PAs last year. He had an extreme outlier first 8 games and an outlier year in 2021. His 2020 can't be extrapolated across an entire season because we all know how foolish that is in general, and the competition was diluted in 2020. The guy has some pop, and sure, he could catch fire. But trying to bank on a sudden turn-around when you're trying to get into wild card contention is a luxury this team increasingly cannot afford. If their 6-9 didn't have so many sub-standard players, I'd say sure, bat him 9th and let fly. But this is getting ridiculous when a much better play is currently available. It's very funny to me that you dismiss his performance in 2020 as an outlier and also his performance in 2021 as an outlier and also his performance in 2023 as an outlier and his scorching hot June-July in 2022 don't count, but he was indeed lousy in April and May last season and therefore that is his essence as a hitter. Which he has now returned to once again in the last three weeks. 2020 is an outlier year with diluted competition, and we can never extrapolate a 60 game stretch as definitive for how the other 102 games will play out. In 2018 he trended down after having two good years, despite the super ball they were using in 2018 & 2019 (and probably 2020, although no one did a ball study then). He had a bounce-back year in 2021, but it was his first year with better than a 2.0 fWAR since 2017. The following year he was able to play a little more than half the year and put up an almost identical stat line to what he's done since coming back from injury this year, which also comprises the bulk of his PAs and playing time. He's 34, in decline and has a problem staying on the field. Sure, I'd love for him to smash 20+ HRs the rest of the way, but right now he's having a hell of a time picking up the ball in the strike zone and not worth a starting position on a team that aspires to be in the playoffs, and maybe not even one that doesn't. I like rooting for the guy because he seems like a good dude and he's diabetic, so he's overcome a hell of a lot just to be on professional athlete. But since the first 8 games of the year he's hurting the team when he plays. He definitely shouldn't be playing most of the games, although he may have a use against LHP. That's it. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 7, 2023 9:15:19 GMT -5
It would seem pretty silly to expect a Story who hasn't played all season to be able to out do Justin Turner's 123 wRC+ he's put up this year. I honestly wouldn't even expect a Story who had played all year to be able to beat that. His bat isn't good enough to stick at DH for a few weeks before his arm is ready.
To me the best course of action with Story is to start his rehab assignment and have him DH for 2 weeks or so before he's ready to return to the field then give him another week in the field to see if his arm can handle SS or if he needs to play 2nd. He doesn't belong on the ML roster until he can return to the field in my mind though.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 7, 2023 9:26:13 GMT -5
It's very funny to me that you dismiss his performance in 2020 as an outlier and also his performance in 2021 as an outlier and also his performance in 2023 as an outlier and his scorching hot June-July in 2022 don't count, but he was indeed lousy in April and May last season and therefore that is his essence as a hitter. Which he has now returned to once again in the last three weeks. 2020 is an outlier year with diluted competition, and we can never extrapolate a 60 game stretch as definitive for how the other 102 games will play out. In 2018 he trended down after having two good years, despite the super ball they were using in 2018 & 2019 (and probably 2020, although no one did a ball study then). He had a bounce-back year in 2021, but it was his first year with better than a 2.0 fWAR since 2017. The following year he was able to play a little more than half the year and put up an almost identical stat line to what he's done since coming back from injury this year, which also comprises the bulk of his PAs and playing time. He's 34, in decline and has a problem staying on the field. Sure, I'd love for him to smash 20+ HRs the rest of the way, but right now he's having a hell of a time picking up the ball in the strike zone and not worth a starting position on a team that aspires to be in the playoffs, and maybe not even one that doesn't. I like rooting for the guy because he seems like a good dude and he's diabetic, so he's overcome a hell of a lot just to be on professional athlete. But since the first 8 games of the year he's hurting the team when he plays. He definitely shouldn't be playing most of the games, although he may have a use against LHP. That's it. Since the start of 2019 Duvall has a 104 wRC+ in 360 games, if you want to ignore 2019 and 2020 it's a 100 wRC+ in 262 games since 2021. In either case he's been a 2.4 WAR/150 guy. You're looking for any excuse to dismiss his stretches of good performance. Health and ability are not the same thing. You say 2021 was his first 2 win season since 2017 which is true, but it's not because of his ability when he was on the field, it's because of health. From 2019 through 2020 his WAR/150 was also 2.4. Yes he is in a bad slump right now, but there is no reason to think he isn't an above average player overall when healthy unless you think he's suddenly hit a cliff. His historical stats just don't support it. All that said, I do think the Red Sox should look to move him because I want Duran playing every day and having Kiké as an extra outfielder makes his roster spot make more sense, Refsnyder can be the short side of a platoon. Would also be okay if they moved Kiké instead. |
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Post by yuchangclan on Jul 7, 2023 9:48:29 GMT -5
Healthy Trevor Story is 100% good enough to DH. He'd probably be the 2nd best in the league behind Ohtani, not counting Harper He has a 99 wRC+ (below league average) in his last 240 games and a 110 for his career. Don’t see how that’s even remotely true. Justin Turner is better Story’s best attribute is his defense. Starting him at DH doesn’t make a lot of sense. |
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jul 7, 2023 9:48:46 GMT -5
Give me Story/162 stats vs Turner/162, just my preference The team has strongly hinted they don’t want Story to DH. He’ll be back when he can field. Definitely not arguing with that, was pushing back on the narrative that Story isn't a good enough hitter to be a DH |
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Post by yuchangclan on Jul 7, 2023 9:50:20 GMT -5
Rangers bullpen is… no good. I wonder what a Paxton + Jansen package could bring back to Boston I want to ask the same question of the Orioles. Will they be pushing some of their chips into the middle of the table? |
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Post by Guidas on Jul 7, 2023 10:23:16 GMT -5
I wonder what a Paxton + Jansen package could bring back to Boston I want to ask the same question of the Orioles. Will they be pushing some of their chips into the middle of the table? Orioles, Reds, Diamondbacks, Rangers, LAD, NYY, PHL and LAA (if they're still in it at the deadline now that Trout is on the IL) are all teams that need starters and relievers. All of them have significant pressure to make the tournament and try to make a run. Any team dealing a quality starter or reliever, even as a rental, should be able to leverage those assets for significant return. Too bad for these teams the Sox will be buyers, not sellers at the break. |
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Post by Guidas on Jul 7, 2023 10:57:21 GMT -5
2020 is an outlier year with diluted competition, and we can never extrapolate a 60 game stretch as definitive for how the other 102 games will play out. In 2018 he trended down after having two good years, despite the super ball they were using in 2018 & 2019 (and probably 2020, although no one did a ball study then). He had a bounce-back year in 2021, but it was his first year with better than a 2.0 fWAR since 2017. The following year he was able to play a little more than half the year and put up an almost identical stat line to what he's done since coming back from injury this year, which also comprises the bulk of his PAs and playing time. He's 34, in decline and has a problem staying on the field. Sure, I'd love for him to smash 20+ HRs the rest of the way, but right now he's having a hell of a time picking up the ball in the strike zone and not worth a starting position on a team that aspires to be in the playoffs, and maybe not even one that doesn't. I like rooting for the guy because he seems like a good dude and he's diabetic, so he's overcome a hell of a lot just to be on professional athlete. But since the first 8 games of the year he's hurting the team when he plays. He definitely shouldn't be playing most of the games, although he may have a use against LHP. That's it. Since the start of 2019 Duvall has a 104 wRC+ in 360 games, if you want to ignore 2019 and 2020 it's a 100 wRC+ in 262 games since 2021. In either case he's been a 2.4 WAR/150 guy. You're looking for any excuse to dismiss his stretches of good performance. Health and ability are not the same thing. You say 2021 was his first 2 win season since 2017 which is true, but it's not because of his ability when he was on the field, it's because of health. From 2019 through 2020 his WAR/150 was also 2.4. Yes he is in a bad slump right now, but there is no reason to think he isn't an above average player overall when healthy unless you think he's suddenly hit a cliff. His historical stats just don't support it. All that said, I do think the Red Sox should look to move him because I want Duran playing every day and having Kiké as an extra outfielder makes his roster spot make more sense, Refsnyder can be the short side of a platoon. Would also be okay if they moved Kiké instead. I don't know if he's hit a cliff, but as I recall, an above average MLB player is at the 3-4 fWAR range or better (better being an All Star caliber player). Duvall has never been more than a 2.7 fWAR player and that was just once in his career. When he's going good he's a solid player with lower OBP but above average pop. He's a nice platoon bat to have when he's going well to accompany Refsnyder, who's more of a singles hitter, but they're both OFs so not sure if they're both needed. I, too, would rather see Duran play every day. Just not sure how they engineer that right now with so many OFs, but it seems to make sense that the under-performer of that group is clogging up a roster space. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 7, 2023 11:02:55 GMT -5
Since the start of 2019 Duvall has a 104 wRC+ in 360 games, if you want to ignore 2019 and 2020 it's a 100 wRC+ in 262 games since 2021. In either case he's been a 2.4 WAR/150 guy. You're looking for any excuse to dismiss his stretches of good performance. Health and ability are not the same thing. You say 2021 was his first 2 win season since 2017 which is true, but it's not because of his ability when he was on the field, it's because of health. From 2019 through 2020 his WAR/150 was also 2.4. Yes he is in a bad slump right now, but there is no reason to think he isn't an above average player overall when healthy unless you think he's suddenly hit a cliff. His historical stats just don't support it. All that said, I do think the Red Sox should look to move him because I want Duran playing every day and having Kiké as an extra outfielder makes his roster spot make more sense, Refsnyder can be the short side of a platoon. Would also be okay if they moved Kiké instead. I don't know if he's hit a cliff, but as I recall, an above average MLB player is at the 3-4 fWAR range or better (better being an All Star caliber player). Duvall has never been more than a 2.7 fWAR player and that was just once in his career. When he's going good he's a solid player with lower OBP but above average pop. He's a nice platoon bat to have when he's going well to accompany Refsnyder, who's more of a singles hitter, but they're both OFs so not sure if they're both needed. I, too, would rather see Duran play every day. Just not sure how they engineer that right now with so many OFs, but it seems to make sense that the under-performer of that group is clogging up a roster space. Average is ~2 WAR as far as I’ve seen ever heard library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/#:~:text=League%2Daverage%20WAR%20rates%20vary,if%20they%20crack%20%2B1%20WAR. |
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,053 
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Post by cdj on Jul 7, 2023 11:14:35 GMT -5
I’m an idiot and thought ppl were talking about Story but it was Duvall. My apologies. I was like when did Story become 34 I’m taking crazy pills lol
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,980
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Post by jimoh on Jul 7, 2023 11:44:16 GMT -5
I don't know if he's hit a cliff, but as I recall, an above average MLB player is at the 3-4 fWAR range or better (better being an All Star caliber player). Duvall has never been more than a 2.7 fWAR player and that was just once in his career. When he's going good he's a solid player with lower OBP but above average pop. He's a nice platoon bat to have when he's going well to accompany Refsnyder, who's more of a singles hitter, but they're both OFs so not sure if they're both needed. I, too, would rather see Duran play every day. Just not sure how they engineer that right now with so many OFs, but it seems to make sense that the under-performer of that group is clogging up a roster space. Average is ~2 WAR as far as I’ve seen ever heard library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/#:~:text=League%2Daverage%20WAR%20rates%20vary,if%20they%20crack%20%2B1%20WAR. yes and Duvall has been above that his last three full seasons. |
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 7, 2023 12:03:51 GMT -5
fell asleep before the comeback. great to see.
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