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Red Sox Select Kyle Teel, Catcher, University of Virginia
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Jul 11, 2023 15:07:36 GMT -5
If I remember correctly Teel had some pretty bad BABIP luck his sophomore year. A lot of that was that he tried to sell out for more power and ended up with some weak contact, but he still probably deserved some higher numbers.
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Post by kman22 on Jul 11, 2023 15:17:54 GMT -5
I remember really liking Henry Davis as a possible draft pick in 2021 (though was even happier with the way things actually turned out!). A quick comparison of his college numbers to Teel's, FWIW:
Davis Age 19: .280/.345/.386 in 148 PAs Age 20: .372/.481/.698 in 52 PAs (covid year) Age 21: .370/.483/.663 in 228 PAs Overall: .337/.435/.566 in 518 PAs
Teel Age 19: .335/.416/.526 in 238 PAs
Age 20: .276/.402/.439 in 277 PAs Age 21: .407/.475/.655 in 297 PAs Overall: .343/.433/.547 in 812 PAs
The overall lines are virtually identical. Teel had a down year as a sophomore but his junior year was right in line with Davis'.
Of course Teel seems to be the much better defensive catcher. Makes me wonder if he would have been the higher-ranked prospect if they were in the same draft (is 2023 that much deeper than 2021?)... or if not, I wonder why. I am of course aware that a lot more goes into the evaluations than the slash line...
This was exactly what I was wondering, thanks for this breakdown.
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 11, 2023 15:25:51 GMT -5
I remember really liking Henry Davis as a possible draft pick in 2021 (though was even happier with the way things actually turned out!). A quick comparison of his college numbers to Teel's, FWIW:
Davis Age 19: .280/.345/.386 in 148 PAs Age 20: .372/.481/.698 in 52 PAs (covid year) Age 21: .370/.483/.663 in 228 PAs Overall: .337/.435/.566 in 518 PAs
Teel Age 19: .335/.416/.526 in 238 PAs
Age 20: .276/.402/.439 in 277 PAs Age 21: .407/.475/.655 in 297 PAs Overall: .343/.433/.547 in 812 PAs
The overall lines are virtually identical. Teel had a down year as a sophomore but his junior year was right in line with Davis'.
Of course Teel seems to be the much better defensive catcher. Makes me wonder if he would have been the higher-ranked prospect if they were in the same draft (is 2023 that much deeper than 2021?)... or if not, I wonder why. I am of course aware that a lot more goes into the evaluations than the slash line...
I would have had Henry Davis over Teel by a non-insignificant margin in terms of how they were looked at coming out of college (as a non-professional and also an idiot). There are aspects to the bat that REALLY popped for Davis coming out of Louisville - there isn't a lot of swing and miss in Teel's bat, but it was remarkable just how little there was in Davis'. That showed in the stats (Teel's average may have been slightly babip inflated this season as well), but also in the scouting - where Teel has a violent swing with extra movement in the head and hands, Davis was quiet in both with really good hips. Both from the frame (lot stronger), the swing, and the stats (I was pleasantly very surprised about Teel's exit velos posted here, but Davis was basically, or very close to, leading his class by most metrics - got Torkelson comps in terms of college exit velo numbers) Davis was comfortably above Teel in present and future power. To me, Davis' development behind the dish has been a bit of a disappointment, but as a prospect how he was evaluated as a defender was not as far behind where Teel is considered to be now. Though he didn't throw as many out as Teel, Davis' arm was thought of as a borderline elite weapon, with consistent sub-2 pop times. People loved his intangibles and experience handling a staff, with highly thought of athleticism in a prototypical catcher's body hopefully portending a future at catcher despite more passed balls than ideal. To me at least the advantages on hit and power overcome a difference on blocking and arm on what is already two already top of the scale arms.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 12, 2023 9:17:59 GMT -5
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 12, 2023 10:02:15 GMT -5
Interesting article and glad to see the numbers, but I think an easy response to this point would be it's a slightly apples to oranges comparison - college catchers who have a chance to hit in the bigs have an approximate floor of 15, while high school catchers might have an approximate ceiling of 15. So you're essentially comparing a group that's mostly top half of the first round to a group that's mostly second half of the first round. The first group ought to have better outcomes and it's not clear that the second group has disproportionately bad outcomes (i.e. it's a bad bet to draft someone in the second group).
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 13, 2023 21:00:08 GMT -5
So, I'm completely sold based on everything that I've read and what everyone is saying on here. Didn't realize that 55 was considered top tier despite the rankings going to 80 (not being snide). With that said, can we play the game of, "why did he slide"? During draft coverage I saw a commenter offer his draft grades on various players with two grades per category: current & how he projected him at "graduation" to MLB. The latter scores were almost all higher. I interpreted this to mean current grades are universal -- ie, not relative to an amateur or a teenager or twenty-something-old. Thrown in with professionals this is where/how they project to grade now. Maybe one of ya'll better informed than me might offer correction or clarification?
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Post by jmei on Jul 14, 2023 6:37:07 GMT -5
No, for draftees, they are usually projections and not current grades. Teel would not be an above-average regular if he was promoted to MLB right now.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 14, 2023 11:14:21 GMT -5
No, for draftees, they are usually projections and not current grades. Teel would not be an above-average regular if he was promoted to MLB right now. Okay, thank you. What causes me confusion is things like this from Baseball America: 35. Roman Anthony
Tools: Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Field: 50 | Arm: 50 Skinny: One of the top breakout prospects in Low-A this season, Anthony has taken flight since seeing a promotion to High-A Greenville. His excellent bat-to-ball skills and discerning eye pair nicely with his developing plus power.This recent evaluation suggests Anthony projects as a below average hitter with some pop and average speed, field and arm, yet he's "taken flight"? To where? Surely I'm not the only one confused with the marrying of the numbers with the words and the overall ranking?
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Post by fenwaydouble on Jul 14, 2023 11:53:37 GMT -5
No, for draftees, they are usually projections and not current grades. Teel would not be an above-average regular if he was promoted to MLB right now. Okay, thank you. What causes me confusion is things like this from Baseball America: 35. Roman Anthony
Tools: Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Field: 50 | Arm: 50 Skinny: One of the top breakout prospects in Low-A this season, Anthony has taken flight since seeing a promotion to High-A Greenville. His excellent bat-to-ball skills and discerning eye pair nicely with his developing plus power.This recent evaluation suggests Anthony projects as a below average hitter with some pop and average speed, field and arm, yet he's "taken flight"? To where? Surely I'm not the only one confused with the marrying of the numbers with the words and the overall ranking? I assume they’ve updated everybody’s ranking and blurb but not their grades.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 14, 2023 11:56:35 GMT -5
No, for draftees, they are usually projections and not current grades. Teel would not be an above-average regular if he was promoted to MLB right now. Okay, thank you. What causes me confusion is things like this from Baseball America: 35. Roman Anthony
Tools: Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Field: 50 | Arm: 50 Skinny: One of the top breakout prospects in Low-A this season, Anthony has taken flight since seeing a promotion to High-A Greenville. His excellent bat-to-ball skills and discerning eye pair nicely with his developing plus power.This recent evaluation suggests Anthony projects as a below average hitter with some pop and average speed, field and arm, yet he's "taken flight"? To where? Surely I'm not the only one confused with the marrying of the numbers with the words and the overall ranking? The projections can stay the same while the likelihood of hitting those projections can improve drastically, which is what I'd imagine is the case here. I think you are greatly overthinking this.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 14, 2023 12:08:42 GMT -5
Okay, thank you. What causes me confusion is things like this from Baseball America: 35. Roman Anthony
Tools: Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Field: 50 | Arm: 50 Skinny: One of the top breakout prospects in Low-A this season, Anthony has taken flight since seeing a promotion to High-A Greenville. His excellent bat-to-ball skills and discerning eye pair nicely with his developing plus power.This recent evaluation suggests Anthony projects as a below average hitter with some pop and average speed, field and arm, yet he's "taken flight"? To where? Surely I'm not the only one confused with the marrying of the numbers with the words and the overall ranking? The projections can stay the same while the likelihood of hitting those projections can improve drastically, which is what I'd imagine is the case here. I think you are greatly overthinking this. If by "overthinking" you mean trying to reconcile conflicting claims, they yes, I am doing that. I remain open to the distinct possibility I am not connecting the dots. I'd appreciate someone connecting them. To reiterate my confusion: BA projects Anthony as having a below average (50 = average) hit tool and most average everything else. And then they say he's doing great! Makes no sense to me.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jul 14, 2023 12:12:30 GMT -5
The projections can stay the same while the likelihood of hitting those projections can improve drastically, which is what I'd imagine is the case here. I think you are greatly overthinking this. If by "overthinking" you mean trying to reconcile conflicting claims, they yes, I am doing that. I remain open to the distinct possibility I am not connecting the dots. I'd appreciate someone connecting them. To reiterate my confusion: BA projects Anthony as having a below average (50 = average) hit tool and most average everything else. And then they say he's doing great! Makes no sense to me. I think it might be just because Anthony's breakout has been so recent and he has had questions around his hit tool since he was drafted. I agree it's kind of hard to reconcile those grades with being the 35th overall prospect in baseball, but I would guess that if he continue to dominate high-A pitching for the rest of the year you will see some of those grades get bumped a bit.
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Post by e on Jul 14, 2023 12:25:36 GMT -5
The projections can stay the same while the likelihood of hitting those projections can improve drastically, which is what I'd imagine is the case here. I think you are greatly overthinking this. If by "overthinking" you mean trying to reconcile conflicting claims, they yes, I am doing that. I remain open to the distinct possibility I am not connecting the dots. I'd appreciate someone connecting them. To reiterate my confusion: BA projects Anthony as having a below average (50 = average) hit tool and most average everything else. And then they say he's doing great! Makes no sense to me. I could be wrong but I don't believe BA adjusts the actual grades with their midseason update. I distinctly remember back in 2021 when Duran jumped onto the list, he had the same grades given to him that offseason, but the report mentioned his power breakout.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jul 14, 2023 12:35:17 GMT -5
The projections can stay the same while the likelihood of hitting those projections can improve drastically, which is what I'd imagine is the case here. I think you are greatly overthinking this. If by "overthinking" you mean trying to reconcile conflicting claims, they yes, I am doing that. I remain open to the distinct possibility I am not connecting the dots. I'd appreciate someone connecting them. To reiterate my confusion: BA projects Anthony as having a below average (50 = average) hit tool and most average everything else. And then they say he's doing great! Makes no sense to me. You can message one of the BA guys and they will gladly explain it to you more than anyone here could. The most likely explanation is that they didn’t update anyone’s grade in this update.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 14, 2023 12:42:00 GMT -5
I'll be honest. I'm completely ignore those grades/values. I mean maybe I look at them to get a sense of player's perceived strengths weaknesses, but different sites have them calibrated on such different scales that it's kind of pointless to focus on the specific values themselves.
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Post by orion09 on Jul 14, 2023 18:50:45 GMT -5
The only concern I see with Teel is the slightly long uppercut swing + the head whack, which makes me think he might eventually have a problem with velocity up in the zone, especially once he starts facing pitchers who can exploit that. I haven’t seen this identified in any scouting reports so maybe no one else thinks it’s a problem. (I couldn’t find heat zones or other data to confirm or deny, if anyone knows where to find that please post it.)
On the other hand, he seems to have plus bat speed and high athleticism, so maybe he’s able to make it work
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 21, 2023 16:05:09 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 21, 2023 16:15:16 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 21, 2023 16:37:50 GMT -5
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 21, 2023 16:46:31 GMT -5
For those who have watched him more, how advanced is Teel’s bat? Is a 2025 debut realistic to hope for ala Henry Davis?
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