SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by scottysmalls on Sept 16, 2023 11:22:01 GMT -5
I don’t get talk of trading Jansen *now*. This season is over. But a proven closer might still be crucial next year. I am not in 2024 sell mode in September of 2023. To me it’s a question of resource allocation. There are other ways I might rather spend $16M than on basically an average closer, especially if you’re adding starters and you’re gonna have Whitlock in the pen and maybe Houck or Crawford too (side note Houck always has given me closer energy).
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Sept 16, 2023 11:27:39 GMT -5
I don’t get talk of trading Jansen *now*. This season is over. But a proven closer might still be crucial next year. I am not in 2024 sell mode in September of 2023. To me it’s a question of resource allocation. There are other ways I might rather spend $16M than on basically an average closer, especially if you’re adding starters and you’re gonna have Whitlock in the pen and maybe Houck or Crawford too (side note Houck always has given me closer energy). Maybe in an ideal situation. I have a hard time imagining trading him, getting something AND not paying his contract (or much of it. So is a minor return and clearing $8 million worth it now?
|
|
|
Post by kwodes on Sept 16, 2023 11:30:23 GMT -5
I don’t get talk of trading Jansen *now*. This season is over. But a proven closer might still be crucial next year. I am not in 2024 sell mode in September of 2023. Agreed. I think the pitching staff could be elite in '24 if they add 2 top end starters. A rotation with Yamamoto, Nola, Sale, bello, pivetta/kutter would be pretty darn good. Plus it's filled with guys who can consistently give you 6 innings. Another plus, it allows houck, whitlock, kutter/pivetta to stay in the pen. Combine the new super deep pen, with a back-end of Martin and jansen, with a really good rotation that consistently goes 6 innings then you have a very formidable staff as a whole.
|
|
|
Post by chaimtime on Sept 16, 2023 11:32:41 GMT -5
I get the hesitance to add more lefties to the lineup, but I also question the wisdom of declining to add Shohei Ohtani’s 134 wRC+ against lefties this year in deference to Teoscar Hernandez’s 138 wRC+ against lefties, for example.
The lineup doesn’t necessarily need more righties, it needs more guys who can hit LHP and use the Green Monster. Obviously, most players with that profile are going to be righties with pull power, but seeing as an everyday player is still going to get 2-3x as many PAs against RHP as LHP, it’s kind of important that they can hit them, too. A lefty who can use the opposite field and doesn’t have worrying platoon splits can still help solve the problem.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Sept 16, 2023 11:32:52 GMT -5
To me it’s a question of resource allocation. There are other ways I might rather spend $16M than on basically an average closer, especially if you’re adding starters and you’re gonna have Whitlock in the pen and maybe Houck or Crawford too (side note Houck always has given me closer energy). Maybe in an ideal situation. I have a hard time imagining trading him, getting something AND not paying his contract (or much of it. So is a minor return and clearing $8 million worth it now? I agree they can't trade his full salary and also get something in return. They might want that $16M this year towards a starter or something though. I'm not strongly pushing to move him, but there's scenarios where I think the salary dump makes sense. Jansen + $8M maybe gets you like C+/B- prospect, I'd be alright with that even if not ecstatic about it, if we need the money for somewhere else. If the rotation is: Acquisition/Acquisition/Bello/Sale/Pivetta/Crawford (to start the year maybe). Bullpen is left as: Houck/Martin/Winckowski/Whitlock/Schreiber/Bernardino/Murphy and that feels like a solid group.
|
|
|
Post by costpet on Sept 16, 2023 11:38:30 GMT -5
Position players that could be traded for some decent pitching…
McGuire Reyes Story Urias Duvall Refsnyder Verdugo
Maybe a couple of prospects.
Got to give to get.
Let the new guy work his magic.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Sept 16, 2023 11:40:19 GMT -5
Maybe in an ideal situation. I have a hard time imagining trading him, getting something AND not paying his contract (or much of it. So is a minor return and clearing $8 million worth it now? I agree they can't trade his full salary and also get something in return. They might want that $16M this year towards a starter or something though. I'm not strongly pushing to move him, but there's scenarios where I think the salary dump makes sense. Jansen + $8M maybe gets you like C+/B- prospect, I'd be alright with that even if not ecstatic about it, if we need the money for somewhere else. If the rotation is: Acquisition/Acquisition/Bello/Sale/Pivetta/Crawford (to start the year maybe). Bullpen is left as: Houck/Martin/Winckowski/Whitlock/Schreiber/Bernardino/Murphy and that feels like a solid group. If they go over the limit, the $8 million won’t matter. If they don’t go over the limit, the $16 million wouldn’t matter. If they are really going to add, say, Nola and Yamamoto, you are surely looking at at least $50 million. Can’t do that and stay under without dumping so much it hurts your competitiveness in other ways.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Sept 16, 2023 11:50:39 GMT -5
I agree they can't trade his full salary and also get something in return. They might want that $16M this year towards a starter or something though. I'm not strongly pushing to move him, but there's scenarios where I think the salary dump makes sense. Jansen + $8M maybe gets you like C+/B- prospect, I'd be alright with that even if not ecstatic about it, if we need the money for somewhere else. If the rotation is: Acquisition/Acquisition/Bello/Sale/Pivetta/Crawford (to start the year maybe). Bullpen is left as: Houck/Martin/Winckowski/Whitlock/Schreiber/Bernardino/Murphy and that feels like a solid group. If they go over the limit, the $8 million won’t matter. If they don’t go over the limit, the $16 million wouldn’t matter. If they are really going to add, say, Nola and Yamamoto, you are surely looking at at least $50 million. Can’t do that and stay under without dumping so much it hurts your competitiveness in other ways. Even if they go over they are going to have some budget line. I don't think we can say that $8M definitely won't matter.
|
|
|
Post by costpet on Sept 16, 2023 11:53:19 GMT -5
There are lots of teams that don’t care about the limit and will pay whatever they have to to win. What are we? Tampa Bay?
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Sept 16, 2023 11:54:58 GMT -5
There are lots of teams that don’t care about the limit and will pay whatever they have to to win. What are we? Tampa Bay? There are literally zero teams that have an infinite budget.
|
|
|
Post by chaimtime on Sept 16, 2023 11:59:58 GMT -5
Maybe in an ideal situation. I have a hard time imagining trading him, getting something AND not paying his contract (or much of it. So is a minor return and clearing $8 million worth it now? I agree they can't trade his full salary and also get something in return. They might want that $16M this year towards a starter or something though. I'm not strongly pushing to move him, but there's scenarios where I think the salary dump makes sense. Jansen + $8M maybe gets you like C+/B- prospect, I'd be alright with that even if not ecstatic about it, if we need the money for somewhere else. If the rotation is: Acquisition/Acquisition/Bello/Sale/Pivetta/Crawford (to start the year maybe). Bullpen is left as: Houck/Martin/Winckowski/Whitlock/Schreiber/Bernardino/Murphy and that feels like a solid group. I do think that if Houck, Winck, Whitlock, and Murphy are all in the pen it makes it a little less important to find innings-eating horses. I wouldn’t have much interest in Nola and Montgomery if that’s the plan, I’d try to see if you can get a controllable 150 inning/2.5 WAR guy on the trade market. I wonder what Minnesota would want for Joe Ryan? That’s the sort of name I’d target—not sure how well he specifically would do at Fenway with his fly ball rates, though.
|
|
|
Post by lilyelliott40 on Dec 5, 2023 2:05:33 GMT -5
Why are the Red Sox special? Our prospects don't move as much as other farms? It's literally been a month. There is no farm system in baseball where the 15th ranked guy a month ago is now the 5th (unless maybe that farm system also traded all the prospects in between at the deadline but I don't know of any that fit that description). This is a dumb long tangent on prospect ranking in the 2024 Lineup Discussion thread so I'll drop it here. Apologies for and agree to drop tangent, but my understanding (perhaps wrong) was that we were talking like MLB.com type rankings for other teams (not frequently updated), not Sox Prospects (updated monthly). So I am talking about people going from #15 to like #8 from March ranking (adjusted for graduations only) to August rankings. I think we can all agree that happens very regularly. If we can't, then agree to disagree and move on anyway. Seriously doubt we sign Bellinger. Not a need for the money he would require, which we would spend instead on pitching or RH power in OF like Duvall. Can somebody please provide thoughts on Abreu defensively compared to guys we have now? I am not assuming he makes team out of camp, but more likely is the injury up/down OF next year who could always push to become a regular -- but you never know with trades/injuries/etc. How good is he in OF corner, and is he at least Duvall quality defensively in CF? I am not asking how Abreu compares to Rafaela (i.e. not asking if he is truly special defensively), but curious if Abreu is a legit CF option if he makes/comes up to join the team in any role during 2024, or if he really is only a corner guy who can occasionally start in CF? And could he handle RF at Fenway and play average or better defensively there? In terms of prospect rankings, the shift from #15 to #8 by August is common, primarily adjusting for graduations. As for signing Bellinger, it seems unlikely due to financial considerations and other positional needs like pitching or a right-handed power hitter in the outfield, possibly someone like Duvall. Regarding Abreu's defensive capabilities, he may not be considered a standout CF defensively, and his primary position is in the corner outfield. While he could fill in occasionally in CF, it's doubtful he's at Duvall's level defensively in that position. As for RF at Fenway, it's plausible he could handle it adequately, but it depends on various factors and matchups.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
|
Post by ericmvan on Dec 5, 2023 3:37:11 GMT -5
(I imagine that folks are using the "predict the roster" thread for this, just as they were using this thread for pitching. It deserves some on-topic attention.
I actually think 11 or 12 of the 13 spots are spoken for. First, Jen McCaffrey at The Athletic has kept on top of the Yoshida LF / DH issue: The other thing worthy of note is that the Red Sox have no starting pitchers who put significant extra stress on the outfield defense.
You can't measure this with simple GB and FB rates. A high-K pitchers gets outs without using the defense at all.The correct metric is:
Air Balls [FB + LD] / (Air Balls + GB + SO + Popups). I did that for last year's starters and converted the results to a + score where 100 is MLB average.
Name AB+ ------ --- Pivetta 103 Crawford 98 Sale 98 Houck 86 Bello 83
So, Yoshida is in LF, most of the time. You'll want at him at DH on the road, when one of the three neutral pitchers are starting, and when there's also a big or tricky LF and/or an opposing lineup full of flyball hitters.
This of course makes room Turner, who hugely wants to return to the Sox.
And here's Breslow on the reality of Turner's value in the clubhouse (again from McCaffrey): "It’s a subjective evaluation for sure, but that is very, very different than saying it doesn’t matter," and then he mentions "the value ... of an additional coach on staff or someone who can get an entire clubhouse moving in the same direction."
So as soon as Ohtani signs, all the losers will make their offers to Turner, and he and the Sox will know what a fair price is. The same thing is very likely to happen with Duvall, who was born to hit in Fenway.
Wong, Casas, Devers, Story, Duran, and the aforementioned trio gives you 8 starters. McGuire, Refsnyder, and, Reyes are on the bench. The Angels are likely waiting until they lose Ohtani before trading Brandon Drury ... if he goes elsewhere, the Sox will find a different plus defender who hits righty for2B.
So, what do we want from guy # 13 ?
The standard bench is backups for catcher, middle infielder, and corner infielder, plus a fourth OFer. The Sox will have the regular DH as the corner IF backup, and when he's in that role, the LF will be at DH. So you want a 5th outfielder.
You also have 5 LF hitters and 7 RH hitters, and one of the 5 lefties is the backup catcher. 5 vs. 8 would be a huge imbalance, so you want a lefty bat.
Of course we already have two outfielders who hit lefty: Alex Verdugo and Wilyer Abeu. And this decision is way trickier than it seems. I'm going to put that in the Verdugo trade thread.
---- Batting order vs. RHP looks strong on paper.
Duran Casas Story Devers Tuner Yoshida Duvall (or Verdugo) Wong 2B
If Stoy is struggling he swaps with Turner. And there are days when you swap Duran and Yoshida, and if Verdugo exists, Duran and him.
Note that putting two LHB back-to-back is not a problem. If needed, you pinch-hit Refsnyed for Duran, and (if applicable) Duvall for Verdugo. Just the threat of that will scare opposing managers away.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Apr 19, 2024 19:40:13 GMT -5
The Red Sox have hit 28 HR, tied for 5th most through 21 games in franchise history.
1969 (31)
2002 (30)
1965 (29) 1997 (29)
1973 (28) 1994 (28) 1995 (28) 1998 (28) 2000 (28) 2024 (28)
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Apr 19, 2024 20:12:12 GMT -5
Noticibly absent from that list: 2018
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 19, 2024 20:17:41 GMT -5
Noticibly absent from that list: 2018 They only homered when it destroyed or demoralized their opponents. That 2018 team just had the knack.
|
|
|