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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Aug 2, 2023 13:19:57 GMT -5
I'll start by suggesting that Justin Turner's player option decision will be the first and most important step.
1. If he takes his option, a RH power bat for the outfield will be needed. 2. If he declines, that RH power bat search could be expanded to include corner infielders.
Good news is that decision will come quickly in the post season.
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 2, 2023 21:42:33 GMT -5
We need more right handed bats in general, and there isn’t much impactful on the FA market which makes Turner as good as gone and the FA market not much of an option.
Yoshida can just go to DH but then there is the open LF spot and then duran and Verdugo seem very redundant as players.
I think I’m trading duran for a young good SP like a Woo type from the Mainers. I only say this because his BABIP is definitely going to regress and that scares me with him
Trading Houck for a good right handed outfielder of equal control.
Bringing up Rafaela. Then deciding what is best to do with Verdugo.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 2, 2023 23:06:57 GMT -5
I'll start by suggesting that Justin Turner's player option decision will be the first and most important step. 1. If he takes his option, a RH power bat for the outfield will be needed. 2. If he declines, that RH power bat search could be expanded to include corner infielders. Good news is that decision will come quickly in the post season. For the purposes of this discussion, I think we should assume Turner opts out. Given the large buyout, I think Turner is almost sure to decline the option unless he falls off a cliff offensively and/or picks up a major injury. In the latter cases the Sox would probably need a Turner replacement regardless, so it's not too different from him opting out. And those cases are unlikely regardless. So, I think we're looking at something like the following for the preliminary starting lineup: C: Wong 1B: Casas 2B: ? (Chang/Reyes/Arroyo/Urias/Valdez/Hamilton/Acquisition) SS: Story 3B: Devers LF: Duran CF: Rafaela RF: Verdugo DH: Yoshida
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 2, 2023 23:32:05 GMT -5
We need more right handed bats in general, and there isn’t much impactful on the FA market which makes Turner as good as gone and the FA market not much of an option. Yoshida can just go to DH but then there is the open LF spot and then duran and Verdugo seem very redundant as players. I think I’m trading duran for a young good SP like a Woo type from the Mainers. I only say this because his BABIP is definitely going to regress and that scares me with him Trading Houck for a good right handed outfielder of equal control. Bringing up Rafaela. Then deciding what is best to do with Verdugo. Durran's speed is going to lead to a higher than normal BABIP, and yes I too would expect a slight regression but likely with a higher BABIP than Steamer ect is project for ROS on Fangraphs, therefore I think your are over stating this point and that alone is not a reason to trade him. He's not even arbitration eligible yet. Verdugo would be a better candidate as he's a more known quantity. There is likely a good reason he was suggested as trade candidate this recent deadline. Maybe add in one of our prospects from outside the top 5, to help land a solid SP, ideally one that has at least 2 seasons of arbitration left. The achilles heal of the team going forward is SP (and I wouldn't even count on Sale either regardless of how he looks when/if he comes back this season. We need at least one front end SP and maybe a back end one too. Bello, Crawford, Pivetta, Whitlock, and Houck are all candidates. Sale should be seen as a depth piece going forward or your sixth starter otherwise your building in an excuse for failure. Whatever we get from him is house money. Here is a list of SP free agents for next year, www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/starting-pitcher/ there are many interesting options. Rafaela has a good chance to break camp with the team next year (and if not at least at some point during next season his HR and 4 walks in a game tonight is a great sign) and be our starting CF. Durran could play RF, as it's allways good at Fenway to have 2 CF'er types manning CF and RF. Yoshi can play LF again or be our DH most of the time should Turner use his player option. Hopefully Turner is back in the fold as our DH. I think with all the MI candidates (Urias, Reyes, Arroyo, Chang (where is Mondesi? FA in 24 nevermind) we have and top MI prospects getting closer to Boston they won't bother looking for a second baseman in the offseason. Story is likely to slide back to secondbase by 2025 anyway if/when Mayer arrives, here on this site it projects late 2024 which maybe forecasting a roster expansion Sept. call-up. Probably a good call, we'll see.
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Post by bosoxnation on Aug 3, 2023 0:15:31 GMT -5
I don’t know why i clicked this thread. I don’t want to imagine the lineup without Turner!!!!
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 3, 2023 4:47:22 GMT -5
Wouldn't surprise me to see them go after a Joey wendle type. LHH MI who is having a down year and probably wouldn't get a big contract for more than a year or two.
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 3, 2023 5:39:04 GMT -5
2B: ? (Chang/Reyes/Arroyo/Urias/Valdez/Hamilton/Acquisition) 2B free agents that you could play are Whit Merrifield (gonna be 35) and I guess Amed Rosario maybe. Guys in their walk year are Altuve, Kim, Adames and maybe you could talk yourself into Moncada.
We're prob stuck with what we already have here.
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Post by texs31 on Aug 3, 2023 6:07:45 GMT -5
I know it's obvious but, given the tone of the thread, it might need to be said. Opting out doesn't mean signing elsewhere. Given that I believe THIS is finally the year to spend again, I wouldn't count Boston out of it when it comes to signing (or re-signing) a free agent.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 3, 2023 6:40:40 GMT -5
2B: ? (Chang/Reyes/Arroyo/Urias/Valdez/Hamilton/Acquisition) 2B free agents that you could play are Whit Merrifield (gonna be 35) and I guess Amed Rosario maybe. Guys in their walk year are Altuve, Kim, Adames and maybe you could talk yourself into Moncada.
We're prob stuck with what we already have here.
After Bloom's talk before the deadline on wanting a LHH MI, other than Moncada who could be an interesting option for 2nd. I don't think any of those would be guys Bloom would be after given that they'll have at least some combo of Arroyo, Urias, Chang, Reyes. My main hope is Urias rebounds to his pre 2023 level and can be a 2+ fWAR guy he was in the previous two years. Wouldn't be sexy but considering they've gotten -.4 fWAR out of 2nd so far this year that'd be a heck of a gain for the team. Just perusing the 2024 FA list guys who would fit the LHH MI role are Wendle, Adam Frazier, Brandon Crawford, Tony Kemp, Kolten Wong, Brad Miller. Not exactly a killers row of options in there but none of them should command big $s or long term. Maybe Valdez will learn how to field this offseason, he'd be a nice fit as the LHH platoon at 2nd since his bat would probably be above average for a 2nd baseman.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 3, 2023 6:57:31 GMT -5
The lineup is already good, so this may be more of a luxury, but having a massive RH bat in the middle of the lineup would be transformative on this team. That is imagining what Casas will be with said right-handed batter xyz hitting between him and Devers.
But I don't think that's feasible. There are no real big names in FA next year that fit that role and/or this team, our top-hitting prospects who may have that type of impact in the next couple years are seemingly all left-handed. And the prospect capital it would take to acquire said player would be better spend on an ACE.
I guess I will just have to settle for a great lineup.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 3, 2023 7:02:06 GMT -5
If Turner doesn't stay, or some type of injury happens in the offseason between him and an outfielder one name I would like the Sox see in talks with is Teoscar Hernandez.
He's having a down year, so he may be willing to take a short-term deal to rebuild his value. And hopefully the Sox can turn out at least one other outfielder from their system by then Cough** ROman Anthony **COUGH**
In this scenario, I imagine someone sliding over to LF and letting Yoshida DH. Better lineup, better balanced with the RHH Hernandez, and much better defense.
EDIT: It's not like a player coming over from Seattle after a bad year has ever signed a one year deal and done anything in Boston before.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,981
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Post by jimoh on Aug 3, 2023 7:26:39 GMT -5
2B: ? (Chang/Reyes/Arroyo/Urias/Valdez/Hamilton/Acquisition) 2B free agents that you could play are Whit Merrifield (gonna be 35) and I guess Amed Rosario maybe. Guys in their walk year are Altuve, Kim, Adames and maybe you could talk yourself into Moncada.
We're prob stuck with what we already have here.
I had not noticed that Whit Merrifield has bounced back after a weak 2022. Would have the advantage of being able to be a RHH backup for our LHH LF and RF.
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Post by rhswanzey on Aug 3, 2023 7:37:59 GMT -5
If Rafaela is handed a starting job next spring (or in a competition he’s heavily favored to win), who is your outfielder with options who is next in line? Wilyer Abreu, or maybe someone else? This year, that guy was Duran, and he played himself into a job. Maybe that’s how to pencil in Rafaela - something usually happens and the guy is up a few weeks into the season anyway.
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Post by naturalobpguy on Aug 3, 2023 9:25:32 GMT -5
When you next rank the prospects, I do not see why Valdez is so high, especially given your own summation of his abilities. Abreu would seem to be a better fit with future rosters.
Biggest question I have is if Mayer's recent struggles are pushing back his projected arrival time or even lowering (horrors) his expected impact in MLB.
Bleis is pure pipe dream stuff, and having him #2 seems borderline ridiculous to me at this juncture.
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Post by nonothing on Aug 3, 2023 10:51:52 GMT -5
I'll start by suggesting that Justin Turner's player option decision will be the first and most important step. 1. If he takes his option, a RH power bat for the outfield will be needed. 2. If he declines, that RH power bat search could be expanded to include corner infielders. Good news is that decision will come quickly in the post season. For the purposes of this discussion, I think we should assume Turner opts out. Given the large buyout, I think Turner is almost sure to decline the option unless he falls off a cliff offensively and/or picks up a major injury. In the latter cases the Sox would probably need a Turner replacement regardless, so it's not too different from him opting out. And those cases are unlikely regardless. So, I think we're looking at something like the following for the preliminary starting lineup: C: Wong 1B: Casas 2B: ? (Chang/Reyes/Arroyo/Urias/Valdez/Hamilton/Acquisition) SS: Story 3B: Devers LF: Duran CF: Rafaela RF: Verdugo DH: Yoshida I think they re-sign Turner. He is perfect RH complement to Devers/Cases, and the fact that he can fill in at 2B if needed is a bonus. If he likes his teammates, he will come back, and I think they will pay him appropriately to do so. At this point in his career, it's a 2 yr deal, which I think fits the Sox as well, and I think they figure it out as long as he really is happy here.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 3, 2023 10:55:55 GMT -5
I like the idea of just extending Turner on the exact same deal they gave him for this season. Now that he's a year older, it doesn't seem like that should be *less* appealing to him. And given that he's shown no decline at all this year I can live with the downside risk.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 3, 2023 10:56:28 GMT -5
We need more right handed bats in general, and there isn’t much impactful on the FA market which makes Turner as good as gone and the FA market not much of an option. Yoshida can just go to DH but then there is the open LF spot and then duran and Verdugo seem very redundant as players. I think I’m trading duran for a young good SP like a Woo type from the Mainers. I only say this because his BABIP is definitely going to regress and that scares me with him Trading Houck for a good right handed outfielder of equal control. Bringing up Rafaela. Then deciding what is best to do with Verdugo. Wait why assume Turner is as good as gone? If anything the Red Sox should have more motivation to sign him than other teams since he’s going to hit their books for like $5M no matter what. Add: Duran and Verdugo seem redundant in what way? That they are both good players in the outfield? Other than that they both hit lefty they're totally different types of players.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Aug 3, 2023 10:58:51 GMT -5
We need more right handed bats in general, and there isn’t much impactful on the FA market which makes Turner as good as gone and the FA market not much of an option. Yoshida can just go to DH but then there is the open LF spot and then duran and Verdugo seem very redundant as players. I think I’m trading duran for a young good SP like a Woo type from the Mainers. I only say this because his BABIP is definitely going to regress and that scares me with him Trading Houck for a good right handed outfielder of equal control. Bringing up Rafaela. Then deciding what is best to do with Verdugo. Matt Chapman is likely an over pay due to the lack of top shelf free agents, but he would look real good hitting between Raffy and Casas , or vice versa. That would make Raffy the primary DH. That limits lineup flexibility unless Raffy learns 1B as well. Not sure that works. Teoscar Hernandez along with resigning Turner would make for a very well balanced lineup. Of course one of the LHH outfielders would be traded as part of a package for a top rotation starter, which seems very likely to happen anyway. If Turner does not come back then an addition need beyond replacing him at DH is loosing his capability at 3B and 1B. This is a role Story could probably merge in to when the young middle infield bucks arrive, but for 2024, Turner is exactly what is needed.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 3, 2023 11:01:40 GMT -5
Turner is going to be a year older and is having roughly as good a season as he did last year, I don't see why the demand for him would be much different than last year. I think he makes as much sense for the Sox as anyone unless the FO wants to use Yoshida as more of a DH than LF next year.
I'd be perfectly fine with running it back with him on the same deal as this year or something similar, I'd also be perfectly fine with them letting him go and using the money saved elsewhere. Though as has been pointed out with his buy out the money saved is pretty minimal anyway.
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 3, 2023 11:08:51 GMT -5
They need to add one more guy to notstarboard's list. It's not gonna be a 3B.
I think the entire list of free agent options is:
Jorge Soler, Tommy Pham, Harrison Bader, Cody Bellinger, Kevin Kiermaier, Teoscar Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, Whit Merrifield, JD Martinez, Justin Turner, Jung Hoo Lee and Shohei Ohtani.
Everyone else sucks too much unless I missed a guy
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 3, 2023 11:11:21 GMT -5
They need to add one more guy to notstarboard's list. It's not gonna be a 3B. I think the entire list of free agent options is: Jorge Soler, Tommy Pham, Harrison Bader, Cody Bellinger, Kevin Kiermaier, Teoscar Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, Whit Merrifield, JD Martinez, Justin Turner, Jung Hoo Lee and Shohei Ohtani. Everyone else sucks too much unless I missed a guy Bellinger is intriguing if you buy his resurgence. The thought of signing Bellinger and then trading Verdugo in theory works pretty dang well dependent on the price for Bellinger and what 1 year of Verdugo could actually bring back.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 3, 2023 11:14:59 GMT -5
They need to add one more guy to notstarboard's list. It's not gonna be a 3B. I think the entire list of free agent options is: Jorge Soler, Tommy Pham, Harrison Bader, Cody Bellinger, Kevin Kiermaier, Teoscar Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, Whit Merrifield, JD Martinez, Justin Turner, Jung Hoo Lee and Shohei Ohtani. Everyone else sucks too much unless I missed a guy Bellinger is intriguing if you buy his resurgence. The thought of signing Bellinger and then trading Verdugo in theory works pretty dang well dependent on the price for Bellinger and what 1 year of Verdugo could actually bring back. I was thinking about Bellinger as a possibility the other day but I worry the price could be pretty absurd
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 3, 2023 11:18:39 GMT -5
Bellinger is intriguing if you buy his resurgence. The thought of signing Bellinger and then trading Verdugo in theory works pretty dang well dependent on the price for Bellinger and what 1 year of Verdugo could actually bring back. I was thinking about Bellinger as a possibility the other day but I worry the price could be pretty absurd Yes, that would be my worry for sure. He got $17.5 last year when he looked like he was completely cooked for the last two years, sure it was just a one year deal but after the year he's had I can't imagine he'd accept much less than that per year over 3+ years. Considering he was probably one more bad season away from becoming a minor league contract type guy, I have to think he's going to want to maximize this contract as best he can. Due to that he probably will be priced out of the type of deal the Sox would want to give out to him.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Aug 3, 2023 11:25:15 GMT -5
Turner is going to be a year older and is having roughly as good a season as he did last year, I don't see why the demand for him would be much different than last year. I think he makes as much sense for the Sox as anyone unless the FO wants to use Yoshida as more of a DH than LF next year. I'd be perfectly fine with running it back with him on the same deal as this year or something similar, I'd also be perfectly fine with them letting him go and using the money saved elsewhere. Though as has been pointed out with his buy out the money saved is pretty minimal anyway. If the FO does in fact see Masa as more DH than LF, I would trade him for a starting pitcher before I would Verdugo. The league knows he is for real now so his contract should not be an issue. Verdugo and his defense in right is needed and Duran has more up side than Masa as he will be fine defensively in LF. ( Might get there in CF as well)
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 3, 2023 11:35:22 GMT -5
Verdugo trade and a Bellinger/Kiermaier/Renfroe/Lee/Bader/Duvall signing makes some sense to me as an option. They could also sign one of those guys instead of Turner and put Yoshida at DH, but then they still need a backup 1B on the roster.
I don't think any of them is a great bet to be better than Verdugo though so maybe just run it back offensively with Story returning full time, Turner resigning.
Maybe add Merrifield as a bench guy playing all over frequently (or a candidate for starting 2B) replacing what would otherwise be one of Chang/Arroyo/Urias/Reyes/Valdez/Hamilton (though you also still need a backup SS, so one of the first four stays too or Rafaela is also on the team).
End up with the same starting lineup as this year just with Story at shortstop, Merrifield at 2B, bench of McGuire/Refsnyder/Urias/Chang and I'd be okay with that.
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