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Post by Guidas on Aug 8, 2023 21:58:56 GMT -5
There is not a lot of offensive WAR available on the free agent market this winter after Ohtanti, Candelario and Chapman, and the latter two are not in positions of need.
If they want to significantly upgrade, they will have to do more than hope 1+ and 3+ WAR players become 3+ and 5+ WAR players next year. They’ll have to deal from prospect wealth to buy bats. They also could try to get a very good player by taking on a bad contract to get the good player in the deal and give up fewer top prospects going back.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 8, 2023 22:13:15 GMT -5
Cody Bellinger might be an interesting if risky FA option if they were to trade Verdugo; he + Rafaela could make for a nice Fenway outfield defense. (But can Bellinger be QO'd?)
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Post by keninten on Aug 8, 2023 22:52:20 GMT -5
Cody Bellinger might be an interesting if risky FA option if they were to trade Verdugo; he + Rafaela could make for a nice Fenway outfield defense. (But can Bellinger be QO'd?) He`s got a mutual option for $25 mil or a $5 mil buyout. He`s never been a FA so he would be able to get a QO. If he turned down the $25 I imagine he would be looking for a commitment in years. Cubs don`t have much on the roster now to replace him (not sure what they have on the farm) so I`m sure they will want to keep him.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 9, 2023 9:24:27 GMT -5
Cody Bellinger might be an interesting if risky FA option if they were to trade Verdugo; he + Rafaela could make for a nice Fenway outfield defense. (But can Bellinger be QO'd?) Would love Bellinger, even if they don't trade Verdugo I think replacing Turner with him and moving Yoshida to DH upgrades the team, but I don't see them spending the budget on him and a top tier pitcher.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 9, 2023 9:47:23 GMT -5
Cody Bellinger might be an interesting if risky FA option if they were to trade Verdugo; he + Rafaela could make for a nice Fenway outfield defense. (But can Bellinger be QO'd?) Would love Bellinger, even if they don't trade Verdugo I think replacing Turner with him and moving Yoshida to DH upgrades the team, but I don't see them spending the budget on him and a top tier pitcher. Yeah Bellinger in a vacuum would be a great option but I'm pretty sure that barring a complete late season collapse he is going to be stupidly expensive.
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Post by trajanacc on Aug 9, 2023 11:42:57 GMT -5
3.9/4.2/8.6/1.5/-1.7/1.2/~5-6 individual season WAR is one of the weirdest I can think of to start a career.
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 9, 2023 12:24:13 GMT -5
Anything more than a 5-6 year deal would scare me for Bellinger. Honestly I’d just stay away
Not sure what to make of this season. K rates plummeted but his walk rates still no where close to anything he did before 2021… very odd
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Aug 9, 2023 12:26:01 GMT -5
Anything more than a 5-6 year deal would scare me for Bellinger. Honestly I’d just stay away Not sure what to make of this season. K rates plummeted but his walk rates still no where close to anything he did before 2021… very odd Add some surprisingly low hard hit rates and exit velocity averages. Not sure how I feel about it.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 9, 2023 12:51:55 GMT -5
Bellinger was a guy I thought of a few weeks back when I was trying to come up with an outside the box theoretical where they could move Verdugo and then sign Bellinger to replace him. After looking closer at his #s this year and the previous few and what he got paid this year. He no longer really looks like a good option as I think he will get priced out of what I would be comfortable paying because I don't really trust this season to be his new norm but I also don't think he's as bad as a player as he showed the previous two. He's probably somewhere in between.
Someone is probably going to give him 20-25AAV for 4-5 maybe 6 years just based off how bad the FA class is for hitters, which at that point I think a team would be lucky to get back even value on that deal none the less surplus.
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Post by seamus on Aug 9, 2023 13:25:00 GMT -5
As difficult as it is to say given the recent cold spell, I'm honestly fine running out mostly the same lineup. I'd trade Verdugo for pitching and then, depending on the market, do one of two things: (1) re-sign Turner or someone with a similar CIF/DH profile, keeping Yoshida primarily in left and signing a veteran in the Pham/Duvall tier to compete with Rafaela for the starting OF spot; or (2) move Yoshida primarily to DH, Duran to LF, Rafaela to CF, and someone like Kiermaier or Teoscar for RF.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 9, 2023 13:26:42 GMT -5
As difficult as it is to say given the recent cold spell, I'm honestly fine running out mostly the same lineup. I'd trade Verdugo for pitching and then, depending on the market, do one of two things: (1) re-sign Turner or someone with a similar CIF/DH profile, keeping Yoshida primarily in left and signing a veteran in the Pham/Duvall tier to compete with Rafaela for the starting OF spot; or (2) move Yoshida primarily to DH, Duran to LF, Rafaela to CF, and someone like Kiermaier or Teoscar for RF. Teoscar can't play RF in fenway if you want a remotely decent defense. Suppose in that scenario you flip Duran to RF and Hernandez to LF. I'd rather just bring Duvall back than Hernandez though.
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Post by redsoxpride34 on Aug 9, 2023 14:04:38 GMT -5
As difficult as it is to say given the recent cold spell, I'm honestly fine running out mostly the same lineup. I'd trade Verdugo for pitching and then, depending on the market, do one of two things: (1) re-sign Turner or someone with a similar CIF/DH profile, keeping Yoshida primarily in left and signing a veteran in the Pham/Duvall tier to compete with Rafaela for the starting OF spot; or (2) move Yoshida primarily to DH, Duran to LF, Rafaela to CF, and someone like Kiermaier or Teoscar for RF. Option 2 makes the most sense to me. Move Yoshida to DH, Rafaella in CF, Duran in LF and Verdugo in RF. Improves the outfield defense significantly and should keep Yoshida more rest which hopefully will help him at the plate. If Verdugo is dealt then you have a couple of options. Either 1) move Rafaella to RF, Duran in CF and acquire a LF or 2) keep Duran in LF and acquired a CF or RF with Rafaella playing whichever position isn't brought in. Would look more to the trade market than FA's. Not really any great options out there.
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Post by seamus on Aug 9, 2023 14:57:53 GMT -5
I thought Teoscar was a solid RF, but I admit I have not looked into his defensive profile significantly. Seems like he's not a butcher, but probably would be better putting Duran out there, at least at Fenway. I am wary of just blithely handing Rafaela the starting job in either CF or RF without a viable backup option if he has early scuffles and needs a reset.
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Post by cba82 on Aug 9, 2023 15:01:48 GMT -5
Does Wilyer Abreu figure into the plans? If not in 2024, does he need to be packaged as part of a larger deal?
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 9, 2023 15:16:58 GMT -5
Putting aside that Story at SS, that hopefully the Casas we've seen since the end of June is closer to his real hitting ability than the guy we saw the first few months and just other variances in hitting stats. The only real avenue I see for Bloom to try and improve this offense is to make a trade as really none of the FA options that I can see outside of Ohtani are really improvements on what they've already got.
The question is, does the offense really need an improvement? Sure you always want to be seeking out improvements so I would say it could use one it doesn't need one. I think as is this offense is good enough to be a playoff caliber team, it just needs to be more consistent. I expect Bloom to be looking to make a deal and if possible add a good RHH thumper to place between Devers and Casas in the lineup but those aren't necessarily readily available. For better or worst, I expect Turner back or roughly the equivalent and pretty much the lineup to look the same at the beginning of next year as it does at the end of this year and for Bloom to use the money he's got in the budget to address pitching.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Aug 9, 2023 16:00:16 GMT -5
Putting aside that Story at SS, that hopefully the Casas we've seen since the end of June is closer to his real hitting ability than the guy we saw the first few months and just other variances in hitting stats. The only real avenue I see for Bloom to try and improve this offense is to make a trade as really none of the FA options that I can see outside of Ohtani are really improvements on what they've already got. The question is, does the offense really need an improvement? Sure you always want to be seeking out improvements so I would say it could use one it doesn't need one. I think as is this offense is good enough to be a playoff caliber team, it just needs to be more consistent. I expect Bloom to be looking to make a deal and if possible add a good RHH thumper to place between Devers and Casas in the lineup but those aren't necessarily readily available. For better or worst, I expect Turner back or roughly the equivalent and pretty much the lineup to look the same at the beginning of next year as it does at the end of this year and for Bloom to use the money he's got in the budget to address pitching. If Verdugo is not traded then I think, other than adding Rafaela, the same lineup could be rolled back. I feel like something more is needed though. keep the lineup evolving. If the Angels look to recoup some prospect depth and rebuild, Trout would be a good fit for the Sox lineup. Verdugo, one Sox top 10 and a couple in the 20-30 range might get the Angels to pick up some of Trout's salary. Duran LF Devers 3B Trout RF Casas 1B Yoshida DH Story SS Urias 2B Wong C Rafaela CF
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 9, 2023 17:45:53 GMT -5
Can Ian Happ play RF? He has a pretty good arm. Switch hitter with very good on base skills. He may not break the bank either
Yoshi Happ Devers
Is a top of the lineup that will work the count (the first two) and drive in runs (Devers)
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 9, 2023 17:52:05 GMT -5
Can Ian Happ play RF? He has a pretty good arm. Switch hitter with very good on base skills. He may not break the bank either Yoshi Happ Devers Is a top of the lineup that will work the count (the first two) and drive in runs (Devers) Why would the Cubs trade him? They just extended him through 2026 in April.
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 9, 2023 17:58:16 GMT -5
Can Ian Happ play RF? He has a pretty good arm. Switch hitter with very good on base skills. He may not break the bank either Yoshi Happ Devers Is a top of the lineup that will work the count (the first two) and drive in runs (Devers) Why would the Cubs trade him? They just extended him through 2026 in April. Oh thought he was an fa never mind
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 10, 2023 7:49:27 GMT -5
I like Rafaela a lot as a prospect and as a guy who will provide serious major league value but I'm not really for the idea of handing the guy the starting CF role out of ST next year. If he's on the ML roster I want him as a super utility guy in a role similar to what Enrique Hernandez was brought in to be originally. I think he could certainly play well enough to take a starting role outright at a position next year but like I said I don't think he should be handed one out of the gate.
If I had to guess Turner will be back if he wants to be back and the lineup next opening day looks similar to the way it will this season when everyone is healthy. Is that good enough? I think so, so long as they heavily bolster the pitching staff.
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 10, 2023 9:02:52 GMT -5
Ehh I don’t really want Turner in what will be a 2-3 year deal. He will be well sought after and I don’t want us doubling down on mistakes
My fear is we didn’t trade both paxton and Turner, and then we extend them and have them get hurt / detoriate
Turner is going to be 39, he will stop bing productive soon it’s just the way it goes
Would I take him at 1 year? Sure, more than that no, and he will get more than that
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Aug 10, 2023 9:15:12 GMT -5
I like Rafaela a lot as a prospect and as a guy who will provide serious major league value but I'm not really for the idea of handing the guy the starting CF role out of ST next year. If he's on the ML roster I want him as a super utility guy in a role similar to what Enrique Hernandez was brought in to be originally. I think he could certainly play well enough to take a starting role outright at a position next year but like I said I don't think he should be handed one out of the gate. If I had to guess Turner will be back if he wants to be back and the lineup next opening day looks similar to the way it will this season when everyone is healthy. Is that good enough? I think so, so long as they heavily bolster the pitching staff. If everyone is back, including Turner but not Duvall, then we will have a high run producing lineup. A full season of Story and Urias in an of itself is a pretty good upgrade. Subbing Rafeala for Duvall would give us a flexible, fast weapon for the bench who could impact most games in some manner. I'd be concerned about defense in CF with Duran starting, but not concerned about Masa in LF. So, yeah, this would be a good enough lineup, one of the best out there. Leaves a ton of money for Bloom to go big and bold with Starting pitching additions !
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 10, 2023 9:26:33 GMT -5
I think we need to shy away from any long term deals. Other than Rafaela, our prospects are not with us until 2025 (Mayer, Anthony, etc)
Also have to keep in mind the next FA class after this one is fairly strong
I’m starting to think they might role with Verdugo in his contract year, hope that inspires his play, and take a comp pick if all Goes well.
Again I am trading Duran not saying he can’t keep it up but everything screams him being a sell high candidate. Plus Rafaela replaces him in CF with better defense.
Again I’m not just saying to ship him out for just anything. But if he gets us to 75% of package to getting a good young SP, I am for sure doing that, especially with Rafaela behind him
If tuner is elsewhere as I would suspect, I’d sign Joc Peterson and Duvall to 1 year deals to man left. Yoshi to DH (while also providing some OF depth
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 10, 2023 9:34:37 GMT -5
Ehh I don’t really want Turner in what will be a 2-3 year deal. He will be well sought after and I don’t want us doubling down on mistakes My fear is we didn’t trade both paxton and Turner, and then we extend them and have them get hurt / detoriate Turner is going to be 39, he will stop bing productive soon it’s just the way it goes Would I take him at 1 year? Sure, more than that no, and he will get more than that Bolded point #2 is why I don't really see your bolded point #1 happening. Teams don't give out multi-year deals to almost 40 year old DH only type players and yea sure Turner can go out there and give you a day or two a week in the field if absolutely needed but on a perfect team he is a DH only guy. There wasn't a very big market for him last offseason and I don't expect this year to be any different. My guess, he signs a deal very similar to what he got this last offseason. 1 year deal with an option for a 2nd but a big buyout so that pretty much it's a one year deal.
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 10, 2023 9:54:05 GMT -5
Ehh I don’t really want Turner in what will be a 2-3 year deal. He will be well sought after and I don’t want us doubling down on mistakes My fear is we didn’t trade both paxton and Turner, and then we extend them and have them get hurt / detoriate Turner is going to be 39, he will stop bing productive soon it’s just the way it goes Would I take him at 1 year? Sure, more than that no, and he will get more than that Bolded point #2 is why I don't really see your bolded point #1 happening. Teams don't give out multi-year deals to almost 40 year old DH only type players and yea sure Turner can go out there and give you a day or two a week in the field if absolutely needed but on a perfect team he is a DH only guy. There wasn't a very big market for him last offseason and I don't expect this year to be any different. My guess, he signs a deal very similar to what he got this last offseason. 1 year deal with an option for a 2nd but a big buyout so that pretty much it's a one year deal. I do, the market will give it to him, there is a huge dearth of productive hitters in FA which will get him a multi year offer. What’s the FA of hitters Ohtani Bellinger Turner Renfroe?? Luckily that can play into our hands on the trade market if we decided to trade Duran, Verdugo or both
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