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Post by notstarboard on Aug 10, 2023 10:01:59 GMT -5
Putting aside that Story at SS, that hopefully the Casas we've seen since the end of June is closer to his real hitting ability than the guy we saw the first few months and just other variances in hitting stats. The only real avenue I see for Bloom to try and improve this offense is to make a trade as really none of the FA options that I can see outside of Ohtani are really improvements on what they've already got. The question is, does the offense really need an improvement? Sure you always want to be seeking out improvements so I would say it could use one it doesn't need one. I think as is this offense is good enough to be a playoff caliber team, it just needs to be more consistent. I expect Bloom to be looking to make a deal and if possible add a good RHH thumper to place between Devers and Casas in the lineup but those aren't necessarily readily available. For better or worst, I expect Turner back or roughly the equivalent and pretty much the lineup to look the same at the beginning of next year as it does at the end of this year and for Bloom to use the money he's got in the budget to address pitching. If Verdugo is not traded then I think, other than adding Rafaela, the same lineup could be rolled back. I feel like something more is needed though. keep the lineup evolving. If the Angels look to recoup some prospect depth and rebuild, Trout would be a good fit for the Sox lineup. Verdugo, one Sox top 10 and a couple in the 20-30 range might get the Angels to pick up some of Trout's salary. Duran LF Devers 3B Trout RF Casas 1B Yoshida DH Story SS Urias 2B Wong C Rafaela CF I have realistically no idea what it would take to get Trout. On the one hand he's a god, but on the other hand he's been battling injuries the last few years, will be 32 next year, and is under a big money contract through 2030... but especially if LAA would pay down some of the cash I could totally get behind this, because boy would it be fun to add Trout to this team. Duran/Rafaela/Trout would be an incredible defensive outfield, and a full year of Story + Casas having more games under his belt will hopefully help stabilize the infield. Towards the end of his contract Trout could definitely have a future as a DH too, and even in the meantime he could rotate with Yoshida every few games to try to keep them both fresh.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 10, 2023 10:04:47 GMT -5
Bolded point #2 is why I don't really see your bolded point #1 happening. Teams don't give out multi-year deals to almost 40 year old DH only type players and yea sure Turner can go out there and give you a day or two a week in the field if absolutely needed but on a perfect team he is a DH only guy. There wasn't a very big market for him last offseason and I don't expect this year to be any different. My guess, he signs a deal very similar to what he got this last offseason. 1 year deal with an option for a 2nd but a big buyout so that pretty much it's a one year deal. I do, the market will give it to him, there is a huge dearth of productive hitters in FA which will get him a multi year offer. What’s the FA of hitters Ohtani Bellinger Turner Renfroe?? Luckily that can play into our hands on the trade market if we decided to trade Duran, Verdugo or both Just looking at purely DH type guys the market seems pretty robust to me. Turner, Pederson, Longoria, Pollock, Teoscar Hernandez, Hoskins, Brantley, Soler, Renfroe, JDM, Brandon Belt, Tommy Pham, Jesse Winker, Max Kepler, Duvall, Carlos Santana, Garrett Cooper. Some are obviously better than others and some aren't necessarily DH only type guys but there's enough volume of those mid-level FAs that I don't see anyone giving Turner any longer of a contract than he got this year. Guess we'll find out in a few months but either way being this is a 2024 lineup discussion if Turner isn't back I would expect someone in that type of class, an older professional type hitter who can be had for one year to fill the DH role at least to start the year.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 10, 2023 10:06:46 GMT -5
Bolded point #2 is why I don't really see your bolded point #1 happening. Teams don't give out multi-year deals to almost 40 year old DH only type players and yea sure Turner can go out there and give you a day or two a week in the field if absolutely needed but on a perfect team he is a DH only guy. There wasn't a very big market for him last offseason and I don't expect this year to be any different. My guess, he signs a deal very similar to what he got this last offseason. 1 year deal with an option for a 2nd but a big buyout so that pretty much it's a one year deal. I do, the market will give it to him, there is a huge dearth of productive hitters in FA which will get him a multi year offer. What’s the FA of hittersOhtani Bellinger Turner Renfroe?? Luckily that can play into our hands on the trade market if we decided to trade Duran, Verdugo or both Chapman, Lee, Hernandez, Kiermaier, JDM, Belt, Pham, Pederson, Longoria, Brantley are all also Turner-caliber FAs or better edit: ematz beat me to it
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 10, 2023 11:01:39 GMT -5
Turner is we ahead of those guys other than JD
Chapman isn’t really in this class. He is a lesser hitter but with way more defense and younger. Not nearly the same player profile
Ohtani Turner Bellinger JD
Are the top for Hitters in this class. The market for JD and turner will be more robust than last offseason. I’m definitely willing to bet that
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 10, 2023 11:28:53 GMT -5
Turner is we ahead of those guys other than JD Chapman isn’t really in this class. He is a lesser hitter but with way more defense and younger. Not nearly the same player profile Ohtani Turner Bellinger JD Are the top for Hitters in this class. The market for JD and turner will be more robust than last offseason. I’m definitely willing to bet that Turner's wRC+: 122 Chapman: 124 JDM: 129 Belt: 129 Brantley: 127 Pham: 118 Hoskins: 122 (2022)
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Aug 10, 2023 12:05:35 GMT -5
Turner is we ahead of those guys other than JD Chapman isn’t really in this class. He is a lesser hitter but with way more defense and younger. Not nearly the same player profile Ohtani Turner Bellinger JD Are the top for Hitters in this class. The market for JD and turner will be more robust than last offseason. I’m definitely willing to bet that Turner's wRC+: 122 Chapman: 124 JDM: 129 Belt: 129 Brantley: 127 Pham: 118 Hoskins: 122 (2022) Feel like if the market develops well for Turner to get a multi-year deal, I'd rather throw a high AAV one year deal at Hoskins, something with low risk because it's short term, but can give us some right handed thump in the lineup, which is desperately needed.
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Post by abrinker on Aug 13, 2023 17:34:14 GMT -5
Looking at potential 2B options, it would seem like we'd match up nicely with San Diego for a Duran-for-Kim swap. Both players fill big gaps for each team. Both have years of control left (Duran has two more than Kim), but Kim's RH bat would balance out the lineup a bit, and the middle infield would, all of a sudden, become a strength (arguably the best defensive tandem in MLB). Would really have to believe in Rafaela (or re-sign someone like Duval) to offset Duran's loss, but it might be a good sell-high move. Duran's been super dynamic at the top of the order, and his speed (e.g., ability to turn singles to doubles, SBs, etc) is a game changer, but one has to wonder if it's sustainable (Duran's cooled off considerably in the last month or so).
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 13, 2023 18:05:06 GMT -5
Turner's wRC+: 122 Chapman: 124 JDM: 129 Belt: 129 Brantley: 127 Pham: 118 Hoskins: 122 (2022) Feel like if the market develops well for Turner to get a multi-year deal, I'd rather throw a high AAV one year deal at Hoskins, something with low risk because it's short term, but can give us some right handed thump in the lineup, which is desperately needed. My best guess with Turner is they run back basically the same contract. One year with another player option that he's likely to opt out of. I also wouldn't hate if they worked out like a two year extension at a lower AAV instead.
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Post by ephus on Aug 16, 2023 9:12:57 GMT -5
It's pretty wild that it is not hard to envison a Red Sox outfield at the END of next year that doesn't include Verdugo, Duran or Masa. Obviously you need to move talent to add pitching and if the right deals come along, you need to consider moving Verdugo and MAYBE even Duran. I'm not saying this winter, but if you get to say June '24 and Wilyer is playing well in Worcester, and you have an opportunity to upgrade the pitching staff and still have an outfield of FA acquisition in LF, Rafaela in Center and Wilyer in right, you would have to think about it. This would also allow moving Masa primarily to DH. There is a ton of "what if" here but it doesn't require a huge stretch of the imagination.
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 16, 2023 9:50:48 GMT -5
It's pretty wild that it is not hard to envison a Red Sox outfield at the END of next year that doesn't include Verdugo, Duran or Masa. Obviously you need to move talent to add pitching and if the right deals come along, you need to consider moving Verdugo and MAYBE even Duran. I'm not saying this winter, but if you get to say June '24 and Wilyer is playing well in Worcester, and you have an opportunity to upgrade the pitching staff and still have an outfield of FA acquisition in LF, Rafaela in Center and Wilyer in right, you would have to think about it. This would also allow moving Masa primarily to DH. There is a ton of "what if" here but it doesn't require a huge stretch of the imagination. Yeah it isn’t! I actually think they keep Verdugo now in his contract year. I don’t see any sense in trading him for lesser value this off-season. Duran is who I see traded, but I won’t beat that horse again. If Turner leaves I really think (and someone else mentioned) Teoscar Hernandez gets signed at a 1 year prove it deal) and gets put in LF Yoshida Rafaela Devers Hernandez Casas Story Verdugo Urias Wong
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Aug 16, 2023 10:04:11 GMT -5
It's pretty wild that it is not hard to envison a Red Sox outfield at the END of next year that doesn't include Verdugo, Duran or Masa. Obviously you need to move talent to add pitching and if the right deals come along, you need to consider moving Verdugo and MAYBE even Duran. I'm not saying this winter, but if you get to say June '24 and Wilyer is playing well in Worcester, and you have an opportunity to upgrade the pitching staff and still have an outfield of FA acquisition in LF, Rafaela in Center and Wilyer in right, you would have to think about it. This would also allow moving Masa primarily to DH. There is a ton of "what if" here but it doesn't require a huge stretch of the imagination. I do find it funny how long we've been under-manned in the OF and now we're bursting with OFs and potential next-man-up. I know you can't bank on it but I hope the AAA guys force their hands and we end up with a Duran/Ceddanne/Abreu OF with Masa flexing in and Rob R available against lefties (though quick look, all the lefty batters have actually hit pretty well against lefties this year). Duggie becomes trade bait. What do we think raw value is, Ceddanne > Duran > Duggie >> Abreu in trade scenarios? The lineup does get shorter with Masa at DH and Turner or equivalent gone. Hoping the added defense and speed, Story return to form, and an upgrade at 2b makes up for it.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Aug 16, 2023 10:43:19 GMT -5
It's pretty wild that it is not hard to envison a Red Sox outfield at the END of next year that doesn't include Verdugo, Duran or Masa. Obviously you need to move talent to add pitching and if the right deals come along, you need to consider moving Verdugo and MAYBE even Duran. I'm not saying this winter, but if you get to say June '24 and Wilyer is playing well in Worcester, and you have an opportunity to upgrade the pitching staff and still have an outfield of FA acquisition in LF, Rafaela in Center and Wilyer in right, you would have to think about it. This would also allow moving Masa primarily to DH. There is a ton of "what if" here but it doesn't require a huge stretch of the imagination. Yeah it isn’t! I actually think they keep Verdugo now in his contract year. I don’t see any sense in trading him for lesser value this off-season. Duran is who I see traded, but I won’t beat that horse again. If Turner leaves I really think (and someone else mentioned) Teoscar Hernandez gets signed at a 1 year prove it deal) and gets put in LF. Yoshida Rafaela Devers Hernandez Casas Story Verdugo Urias Wong I would assume Rafaela more in the bottom 3rd of the order with Story at #2 spot, but this is a deep lineup. I still want to swing big and try to get Trout from the Angels though.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 16, 2023 10:43:45 GMT -5
I kind of get the feeling Rafaela probably isn't plan A to break camp with the ML team next year as the the CF andI certainly don't see him breaking camp as 2nd or SS. I would feel even stronger if he isn't the hitter they call up for September call-ups. I don't have much of a basis for my feeling, just kind of a gut type thing I have right now.
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Post by ephus on Aug 16, 2023 11:19:08 GMT -5
It's pretty wild that it is not hard to envison a Red Sox outfield at the END of next year that doesn't include Verdugo, Duran or Masa. Obviously you need to move talent to add pitching and if the right deals come along, you need to consider moving Verdugo and MAYBE even Duran. I'm not saying this winter, but if you get to say June '24 and Wilyer is playing well in Worcester, and you have an opportunity to upgrade the pitching staff and still have an outfield of FA acquisition in LF, Rafaela in Center and Wilyer in right, you would have to think about it. This would also allow moving Masa primarily to DH. There is a ton of "what if" here but it doesn't require a huge stretch of the imagination. I do find it funny how long we've been under-manned in the OF and now we're bursting with OFs and potential next-man-up. I know you can't bank on it but I hope the AAA guys force their hands and we end up with a Duran/Ceddanne/Abreu OF with Masa flexing in and Rob R available against lefties (though quick look, all the lefty batters have actually hit pretty well against lefties this year). Duggie becomes trade bait. What do we think raw value is, Ceddanne > Duran > Duggie >> Abreu in trade scenarios? The lineup does get shorter with Masa at DH and Turner or equivalent gone. Hoping the added defense and speed, Story return to form, and an upgrade at 2b makes up for it. This line-up would absolutely play a much different game offensively, and better take advantage of bigger bases and lack of shift. The hope would be that Abreu and Rafaela help offset the loss in pop from Turner and Duvall. But you are 100% this is a line-up that would rely on increased speed and obviouslly giving up fewer runs with better defense.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 16, 2023 11:24:27 GMT -5
I kind of get the feeling Rafaela probably isn't plan A to break camp with the ML team next year as the the CF andI certainly don't see him breaking camp as 2nd or SS. I would feel even stronger if he isn't the hitter they call up for September call-ups. I don't have much of a basis for my feeling, just kind of a gut type thing I have right now. Yeah, I get nervous seeing all of these lineups counting on both Duran (extremely high BABIP) and Rafaela (No MLB experience and chase concerns) to be day 1 starters. And Bloom tends to value depth highly. I'm a big Rafaela fan, but I would be happy to see him get 3-4 starts a week while working as a defensive replacement and pinch runner before forcing his way into a larger role. Also, Rafaela/Story may be the best defensive middle infield next year - could lead to some interesting late game choices.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 16, 2023 11:53:46 GMT -5
I kind of get the feeling Rafaela probably isn't plan A to break camp with the ML team next year as the the CF andI certainly don't see him breaking camp as 2nd or SS. I would feel even stronger if he isn't the hitter they call up for September call-ups. I don't have much of a basis for my feeling, just kind of a gut type thing I have right now. Yeah, I get nervous seeing all of these lineups counting on both Duran (extremely high BABIP) and Rafaela (No MLB experience and chase concerns) to be day 1 starters. And Bloom tends to value depth highly. I'm a big Rafaela fan, but I would be happy to see him get 3-4 starts a week while working as a defensive replacement and pinch runner before forcing his way into a larger role. Also, Rafaela/Story may be the best defensive middle infield next year - could lead to some interesting late game choices. This is part of the reason I can't see them saying to themselves once this season ends that ok our OF next year is going to be Duran/Rafaela/Verdugo because the downside offensively as you point out is that Duran isn't able to replicate the success he had this year and Rafaela is something like a 70 wRC+ guy which would put a lot of strain on the rest of the offense. I think Duvall or someone in that mold is brought in to be the RHH starting OF at least out of the gate. I don't think it'd be the worst to leave Rafaela in AAA for at least a few months next year, his numbers in AAA are great but he only has 37 games played there right now. in 2022 he spent 71 games in Portland and this year 60 and I could see them doing something similar with him at AAA, let him get another 50-60 games at AAA to let him develop more at the plate under less pressure at AAA.
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Post by jmei on Aug 26, 2023 8:50:39 GMT -5
I moved a post re: Verdugo trade ideas to its own thread in the trade discussion sub forum.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 30, 2023 22:07:02 GMT -5
I'm not going to worry about where I bat them at this point - but after the "2023 experience" my preferences are
Wong (C) Casas (1st) someone new (2nd) Story (SS) Devers (3rd) Rafaela (CF) Duran (LF) Someone new (RF) Someone new (DH)
which is controversial - because this has Verdugo and Masa gone. And Urias. And Refsnyder. And Reyes. And Turner. And Duvall.
I think we fall in love too easily with the players on a given roster - but this year seemed a bad mix. I am ready for significant changes. Don't ask me how - or if - it will happen.
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 31, 2023 9:21:55 GMT -5
I'm not going to worry about where I bat them at this point - but after the "2023 experience" my preferences are Wong (C) Casas (1st) someone new (2nd) Story (SS) Devers (3rd) Rafaela (CF) Duran (LF) Someone new (RF) Someone new (DH) which is controversial - because this has Verdugo and Masa gone. And Urias. And Refsnyder. And Reyes. And Turner. And Duvall. I think we fall in love too easily with the players on a given roster - but this year seemed a bad mix. I am ready for significant changes. Don't ask me how - or if - it will happen. I mean I am with you the lineup needs a complete overhaul. The lineup/fielding roster is very poorly constructed. For 2024 specifically. My perfect world lineup with no huge contracts is signing Turner and signing Teoscar Hernandez for a 1 year deal (if he is looking for a prove it rebound deal). Masa and Duran both gone Rafaela CF Story SS Devers 3B Turner DH Casas 1B Hernandez LF Verdugo RF Urias 2B Wong C Abreu as a bench OF Then entering the offseason. Sale/Verdugo/Duvall/Turner/Hernandez/Martin/Pivetta/Jansen.... all fall off. Huge salary recent and Mayer/Teel/Yorke/Anthony all really knocking on the door for 2025
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Post by fenwaydouble on Aug 31, 2023 9:24:53 GMT -5
There's no point in even talking about dumping Yoshida because there is a 0% chance it happens.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 31, 2023 9:32:27 GMT -5
I'm not going to worry about where I bat them at this point - but after the "2023 experience" my preferences are Wong (C) Casas (1st) someone new (2nd) Story (SS) Devers (3rd) Rafaela (CF) Duran (LF) Someone new (RF) Someone new (DH) which is controversial - because this has Verdugo and Masa gone. And Urias. And Refsnyder. And Reyes. And Turner. And Duvall. I think we fall in love too easily with the players on a given roster - but this year seemed a bad mix. I am ready for significant changes. Don't ask me how - or if - it will happen. I'm not sure why this lineup seems like a bad mix to you. The defense has been terrible, obviously, but mainly because of Kiké, Devers, and Casas; but Kiké has already been replaced by Story (major upgrade!) and even in your overhaul you keep Devers and Casas at their positions.
Meanwhile, the offense has been good overall this year (despite the early season black holes at 2B and SS which have already been resolved) but you'd get rid of four of their six best hitters, as well as two guys who have been very effective bench pieces. And an above-average offensive second baseman to boot.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 31, 2023 9:53:42 GMT -5
Some outfield alignments I'd be good with (in no order):
1) Duran/Rafaela/Duvall, Yoshida DH, trade Verdugo, Abreu on the bench since now we have two righties in the OF 2) Yoshida/Rafaela/Verdugo, Turner DH, trade Duran 3) Duran/Rafaela/Verdugo, trade or DH Yoshida 4) Yoshida/Duran/Verdugo, Turner DH, run it back, maybe you QO Duvall here I think he pretty much has to come back and you figure it out 5) Duvall/Duran/Verdugo, trade or DH Yoshida
I think I prefer to get Rafaela in center because having good defense would be really nice. Whether they put Yoshida at DH or trade him and resign Turner I'm pretty neutral on. I don't mind a Duran trade because he should be worth a lot and he might have some regression coming, but prefer to keep him. Lot of ways to slice it up, but I think the three OFs for 2024 are already in the org even if they do trade a guy or let Duvall go.
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Post by nonothing on Aug 31, 2023 9:54:25 GMT -5
There's no point in even talking about dumping Yoshida because there is a 0% chance it happens. But it should. They are committed to Devers and Casas. They cannot afford more defensive black holes. Are you tying this to Yamamoto signing, or even if they fail to sign him you still think they have to keep Masa? (Btw, I like Yoshida and think he has real value - just a bad fit for the Red Sox in particular) The should definitely try to re-sign to Duvall. I would be fine with a 1 or 2 year deal for him to get RH power bat. Duvall only plays CF next year until Rafaela is ready (unless he never is, in which case we need a RHH OF = Duvall even more). If/when Rafaela is ready, Duvall is a starter in a corner. I don't think this is hard. The Turner question is harder given his age, but I would try to re-sign Turner if possible, only for 1 yr. The guy is just great for the team. Any of Yoshida, Duran or Masa could go, but I would try to keep the best defense to help our pitching, so that's Verdugo with one of the higher value assets in Masa or Duran (more yrs of control) available for trade. You would have Duggie for one more year, and if he is worth a QO after that, QO him. If Abreu wins the job by mid-year, trade him or Duran then. But I would keep Duggie unless I had a great offer for him and somebody else valued him above Duran or Yoshida.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 31, 2023 9:55:58 GMT -5
There's no point in even talking about dumping Yoshida because there is a 0% chance it happens. But it should. They are committed to Devers and Casas. They cannot afford more defensive black holes. Are you tying this to Yamamoto signing, or even if they fail to sign him you still think they have to keep Masa? It is way too early to assume Casas is a black hole at first. Devers could also certainly improve, but Casas in particular I don't think we should believe they are committed to a black hole with.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 31, 2023 10:04:54 GMT -5
I'm not going to worry about where I bat them at this point - but after the "2023 experience" my preferences are Wong (C) Casas (1st) someone new (2nd) Story (SS) Devers (3rd) Rafaela (CF) Duran (LF) Someone new (RF) Someone new (DH) which is controversial - because this has Verdugo and Masa gone. And Urias. And Refsnyder. And Reyes. And Turner. And Duvall. I think we fall in love too easily with the players on a given roster - but this year seemed a bad mix. I am ready for significant changes. Don't ask me how - or if - it will happen. Insane irony in you making sweeping claims that fans fall in love too easily with players and the proceeding to turn around and claim that the lineup with the seventh most runs in baseball is a "bad mix". I'm not saying everything is perfect and that the team shouldn't look to improve, but you're taking the overreaction way too far in the opposite direction based on nothing but the same emotional misguidance you just claimed others are prone to. Pretty hilarious.
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