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8/15-8/17 Red Sox @ Nationals Series Thread
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Post by Guidas on Aug 17, 2023 19:11:50 GMT -5
Nobody plays to the level of their competition quite like the 2023 Boston Red Sox, a sign of a very unserious team. You can say that about the Celtics and Bruins in the past season, but not the Red Sox. The Red Sox very simply lack talent. The team is pedestrian. fWAR backs you up on this. Perennial play-off team soon, though. Or so we’re told.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 17, 2023 19:16:53 GMT -5
I appreciate them not rolling over when it was 9-1
It was too little too late, which seems to be like how the season will end, but they do have some pride at least
Fortunately the schedule gets much more difficult so that should somehow get them back on track
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 17, 2023 20:13:46 GMT -5
fWAR backs you up on this. Perennial play-off team soon, though. Or so we’re told. I don’t understand how some people have redpilled themselves into thinking this team could be GOOD ENOUGH and then pray so they get hot in the post-season. I mean, yeah, you need to get hot in the post-season to win it all, but you need to get there first. Being a middle of the road team that lacks top level talent means you probably won’t get there lol.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 17, 2023 20:14:58 GMT -5
Nobody plays to the level of their competition quite like the 2023 Boston Red Sox, a sign of a very unserious team. You can say that about the Celtics and Bruins in the past season, but not the Red Sox. The Red Sox very simply lack talent. The team is pedestrian. I don’t think it’s so simple. They have a good offense. There is some talented pitching. They also have pretty much the worst defense you will ever see at the major league level. Turner, Yoshida, Devers and Casas are all very good hitters but terrible defenders. Durran isn’t great in center. The Shortstops have largely been been terrible. Second basemen haven’t been much better. You can survive with a couple of bad defenders, but this…
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Post by yuchangclan on Aug 17, 2023 20:29:28 GMT -5
Exactly. His run didn’t matter. That’s why the Nats were conceding it and he could have walked home. OK. So they lose 10-8. Is the takeaway from that game that problem was Verdugo’s base-running? Because to my eyes, there were many guys who deserved a talking to more than him. No, that was not my main takeaway. It was just example #22,477 of bad baserunning and boneheaded baseball that we’ve seen all year from this team. And Verdugo might just be the team leader in that category. But it definitely didn’t cost them the game today.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Aug 17, 2023 20:39:42 GMT -5
You can say that about the Celtics and Bruins in the past season, but not the Red Sox. The Red Sox very simply lack talent. The team is pedestrian. I don’t think it’s so simple. They have a good offense. There is some talented pitching. They also have pretty much the worst defense you will ever see at the major league level. Turner, Yoshida, Devers and Casas are all very good hitters but terrible defenders. Durran isn’t great in center. The Shortstops have largely been been terrible. Second basemen haven’t been much better. You can survive with a couple of bad defenders, but this… Correction. They HAD a good offense. Since theAtlanta series their offense has been bad. ve today they didn't get going until they were down big. Why not shake things up a lit le. DL Duran for 10 days so he can get his head together and bring up one of the hot hitters at AAA, Maybe the guy they all up can give the team a spark.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 17, 2023 20:56:11 GMT -5
lmao @ being mad at Verdugo for that, talk about doing mental gymnastics trying to justify continued hate for a guy
It literally didn’t matter. It can’t be boneheaded, there was zero way he could help them or hurt them unless you had the Sox +2.5. Must be a bad gambler like me because that’s the only way you could possibly be even mildly frustrated with that. Trying way too hard
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Post by Guidas on Aug 17, 2023 21:18:46 GMT -5
fWAR backs you up on this. Perennial play-off team soon, though. Or so we’re told. I don’t understand how some people have redpilled themselves into thinking this team could be GOOD ENOUGH and then pray so they get hot in the post-season. I mean, yeah, you need to get hot in the post-season to win it all, but you need to get there first. Being a middle of the road team that lacks top level talent means you probably won’t get there lol. Don’t worry, Don. I was assured in another thread that the window opens next year. Until I was assured in the same thread that maybe it doesn’t open until 2025…or 2026…but it’ll definitely be open in 2027.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 17, 2023 21:40:49 GMT -5
Losses take their toll. Updated odds 9.8% to make the playoffs. Blue Jays up to 66, Mariners 41, MFY down to 2., Guardians 8.6.
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Post by patford on Aug 18, 2023 8:38:05 GMT -5
Nobody plays to the level of their competition quite like the 2023 Boston Red Sox, a sign of a very unserious team. You can say that about the Celtics and Bruins in the past season, but not the Red Sox. The Red Sox very simply lack talent. The team is pedestrian. The Celtics showed a lack of toughness the whole year. Wasn't the problem with the Bruins Linus Ullmark had an injury which seriously limited his mobility and his GA average almost doubled? Agree about the Red Sox. I am surprised at how deep a slump the bats are in and worried about the season Devers is having.
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Post by patford on Aug 18, 2023 8:45:59 GMT -5
Exactly. His run didn’t matter. That’s why the Nats were conceding it and he could have walked home. OK. So they lose 10-8. Is the takeaway from that game that problem was Verdugo’s base-running? Because to my eyes, there were many guys who deserved a talking to more than him. Verdugo could only be blamed for that if it wasn't the 9th inning. In the 9th inning and with the tying run at the plate his run is meaningless.
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Post by manfred on Aug 18, 2023 8:58:47 GMT -5
After the first week of the season, who had Reyes and Duvall even in bWAR at this point?
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Post by soxfanatic on Aug 18, 2023 9:25:36 GMT -5
After the first week of the season, who had Reyes and Duvall even in bWAR at this point? We didn't even know who Reyes was at that point
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Post by incandenza on Aug 18, 2023 10:26:47 GMT -5
After the first week of the season, who had Reyes and Duvall even in bWAR at this point? Yet it's 1.3 to 0.4 by fWAR. Which I think says more about WAR than about these two players.
Other weird stats:
- The Red Sox have 5 starters with a wRC+ of 122 or better and 0 guys with a wRC+ above 126. - Refsnyder leads the team in OBP (.373) yets has a sub-100 wRC+. That is hard to do. - Verdugo has a 106 wRC+. His career number is 107. I have officially given up hope that he'll find another offensive gear; no matter how hot or cold he ever gets he is just drawn inexorably to his career average numbers.
Somehow, despite 8 solidly above average hitters and respectable production at C, this team has only a 103 wRC+. I think it's not just the black hole production from roster chaff, which every team has to deal with to some extent; it's the lack of really elite offensive players this year. Devers falling short of that status this season is really hurting them; Casas' early season struggles plus Yoshida's recent slump have also prevented those two from reaching that level. But compare the Yankees: they run out an absolutely atrocious lineup night after night, other than Judge - only one other starter has a wRC+ above 100 - but their team wRC+ is 95, only 8 points worse than the Red Sox'. One elite hitter is singlehandedly keeping them afloat.
Anyway, a 103 wRC+ doesn't really cut it when you also have awful defense.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 18, 2023 10:30:23 GMT -5
After the first week of the season, who had Reyes and Duvall even in bWAR at this point? Yet it's 1.3 to 0.4 by fWAR. Which I think says more about WAR than about these two players.
Other weird stats:
- The Red Sox have 5 starters with a wRC+ of 122 or better and 0 guys with a wRC+ above 126. - Refsnyder leads the team in OBP (.373) yets has a sub-100 wRC+. That is hard to do. - Verdugo has a 106 wRC+. His career number is 107. I have officially given up hope that he'll find another offensive gear; no matter how hot or cold he ever gets he is just drawn inexorably to his career average numbers.
Somehow, despite 8 solidly above average hitters and respectable production at C, this team has only a 103 wRC+. I think it's not just the black hole production from roster chaff, which every team has to deal with to some extent; it's the lack of really elite offensive players this year. Devers falling short of that status this season is really hurting them; Casas' early season struggles plus Yoshida's recent slump have also prevented those two from reaching that level. But compare the Yankees: they run out an absolutely atrocious lineup night after night, other than Judge - only one other starter has a wRC+ above 100 - but their team wRC+ is 95, only 8 points worse than the Red Sox'. One elite hitter is singlehandedly keeping them afloat.
Anyway, a 103 wRC+ doesn't really cut it when you also have awful defense.
Yeah for this team to really go they need Devers to be '22 Devers, or ideally take it to another gear - though in fairness to him his xwOBA is actually higher this year and he's running the lowest BABIP of his career (despite the rule changes which are I believe raising BABIP league wide, especially for pull lefties), so he may be a bit snake bitten. Add: Although he is pulling the ball more and hitting fewer liners this year which also probably are contributing to the above changes. xBA is down xSLG is up
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 18, 2023 10:32:49 GMT -5
After the first week of the season, who had Reyes and Duvall even in bWAR at this point? Yet it's 1.3 to 0.4 by fWAR. Which I think says more about WAR than about these two players.
Other weird stats:
- The Red Sox have 5 starters with a wRC+ of 122 or better and 0 guys with a wRC+ above 126. - Refsnyder leads the team in OBP (.373) yets has a sub-100 wRC+. That is hard to do. - Verdugo has a 106 wRC+. His career number is 107. I have officially given up hope that he'll find another offensive gear; no matter how hot or cold he ever gets he is just drawn inexorably to his career average numbers.
Somehow, despite 8 solidly above average hitters and respectable production at C, this team has only a 103 wRC+. I think it's not just the black hole production from roster chaff, which every team has to deal with to some extent; it's the lack of really elite offensive players this year. Devers falling short of that status this season is really hurting them; Casas' early season struggles plus Yoshida's recent slump have also prevented those two from reaching that level. But compare the Yankees: they run out an absolutely atrocious lineup night after night, other than Judge - only one other starter has a wRC+ above 100 - but their team wRC+ is 95, only 8 points worse than the Red Sox'. One elite hitter is singlehandedly keeping them afloat.
Anyway, a 103 wRC+ doesn't really cut it when you also have awful defense.
Interesting stuff, certainly makes me re-think my stance that this offense doesn't need to really add much if anything in the offseason. I suppose if they sure up the pitching with some good acquisitions overall the 2024 team could be really good but I'm warming up to the idea this offense needs a real shot in the arm. Not sure where that comes from? Can hope for a better season from Rafi, that having Story for a full season at SS and that Casas in his 2nd full season can be a real force over the course of a full season that he's shown the ability to be in stretches. Is that enough though? It might have to be unless Bloom can find something good on the trade market since I don't see any of the FAs this offseason being any better than what they currently have for batters.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Aug 18, 2023 10:40:54 GMT -5
After the first week of the season, who had Reyes and Duvall even in bWAR at this point? Yet it's 1.3 to 0.4 by fWAR. Which I think says more about WAR than about these two players.
Other weird stats:
- The Red Sox have 5 starters with a wRC+ of 122 or better and 0 guys with a wRC+ above 126. - Refsnyder leads the team in OBP (.373) yets has a sub-100 wRC+. That is hard to do. - Verdugo has a 106 wRC+. His career number is 107. I have officially given up hope that he'll find another offensive gear; no matter how hot or cold he ever gets he is just drawn inexorably to his career average numbers.
Somehow, despite 8 solidly above average hitters and respectable production at C, this team has only a 103 wRC+. I think it's not just the black hole production from roster chaff, which every team has to deal with to some extent; it's the lack of really elite offensive players this year. Devers falling short of that status this season is really hurting them; Casas' early season struggles plus Yoshida's recent slump have also prevented those two from reaching that level. But compare the Yankees: they run out an absolutely atrocious lineup night after night, other than Judge - only one other starter has a wRC+ above 100 - but their team wRC+ is 95, only 8 points worse than the Red Sox'. One elite hitter is singlehandedly keeping them afloat.
Anyway, a 103 wRC+ doesn't really cut it when you also have awful defense.
Your point about Verdugo supports analytically what I have felt about him all along. Now that he is adding value with his RF defense, he is good enough as is to be a regular lineup player for the Sox and many other teams. I wish he were less streaky, but he is what we should expect him to continue to be. Therefore, his trade value probably is not that great and his next contract should be affordable. T.B.D. as to whether it is with the Sox or not. I hope it is.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 18, 2023 10:47:58 GMT -5
Yet it's 1.3 to 0.4 by fWAR. Which I think says more about WAR than about these two players.
Other weird stats:
- The Red Sox have 5 starters with a wRC+ of 122 or better and 0 guys with a wRC+ above 126. - Refsnyder leads the team in OBP (.373) yets has a sub-100 wRC+. That is hard to do. - Verdugo has a 106 wRC+. His career number is 107. I have officially given up hope that he'll find another offensive gear; no matter how hot or cold he ever gets he is just drawn inexorably to his career average numbers.
Somehow, despite 8 solidly above average hitters and respectable production at C, this team has only a 103 wRC+. I think it's not just the black hole production from roster chaff, which every team has to deal with to some extent; it's the lack of really elite offensive players this year. Devers falling short of that status this season is really hurting them; Casas' early season struggles plus Yoshida's recent slump have also prevented those two from reaching that level. But compare the Yankees: they run out an absolutely atrocious lineup night after night, other than Judge - only one other starter has a wRC+ above 100 - but their team wRC+ is 95, only 8 points worse than the Red Sox'. One elite hitter is singlehandedly keeping them afloat.
Anyway, a 103 wRC+ doesn't really cut it when you also have awful defense.
Your point about Verdugo supports analytically what I have felt about him all along. Now that he is adding value with his RF defense, he is good enough as is to be a regular lineup player for the Sox and many other teams. I wish he were less streaky, but he is what we should expect him to continue to be. Therefore, his trade value probably is not that great and his next contract should be affordable. T.B.D. as to whether it is with the Sox or not. I hope it is.My guess is that Verdugo is probably more valuable to the 2024 Red Sox than what his trade value will be this offseason. That being said, he is what he is at this point a fine every day role player RF. I really don't want them to sign him to an extension short of some crazy bargain. He just seems very much replaceable. Rafaella will hopefully prove to be a good maybe great fit for the team in CF for cheap and Duran can hopefully build on his success this year once again for cheap. My preference would be to find a real difference maker for LF/RF then to just bring back a slightly above average player in Verdugo. Don't ask me where that comes from, perhaps Roman Anthony really forces the issue but doubt he's going to be that guy for 2025 when they'll need a replacement for Verdugo. I do hear there's this guy out in SD named Soto who is pretty good though..
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Post by manfred on Aug 18, 2023 10:55:00 GMT -5
Your point about Verdugo supports analytically what I have felt about him all along. Now that he is adding value with his RF defense, he is good enough as is to be a regular lineup player for the Sox and many other teams. I wish he were less streaky, but he is what we should expect him to continue to be. Therefore, his trade value probably is not that great and his next contract should be affordable. T.B.D. as to whether it is with the Sox or not. I hope it is.My guess is that Verdugo is probably more valuable to the 2024 Red Sox than what his trade value will be this offseason. That being said, he is what he is at this point a fine every day role player RF. I really don't want them to sign him to an extension short of some crazy bargain. He just seems very much replaceable. Rafaella will hopefully prove to be a good maybe great fit for the team in CF for cheap and Duran can hopefully build on his success this year once again for cheap. My preference would be to find a real difference maker for LF/RF then to just bring back a slightly above average player in Verdugo. Don't ask me where that comes from, perhaps Roman Anthony really forces the issue but doubt he's going to be that guy for 2025 when they'll need a replacement for Verdugo. I do hear there's this guy out in SD named Soto who is pretty good though.. Truthfully, I might prefer just going with Duvall. I am not saying he’s necessarily a better player in isolation, but if you go Yoshida at DH, Duran in LF, and Rafaela in CF, it’d probably be better to have a decent glove, RH power hitter in RF than a good glove average LH hitter. There is a chance that Duran, Rafaela, Yoshida, and Verdugo combine for <60 HRs. It isn’t everything, obviously, but it does increase the pressure on Devers and Casas (two more LHs, as well). As much as anything, I just view Verdugo as odd-man out of a lineup that needs better balance.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 18, 2023 11:14:23 GMT -5
My guess is that Verdugo is probably more valuable to the 2024 Red Sox than what his trade value will be this offseason. That being said, he is what he is at this point a fine every day role player RF. I really don't want them to sign him to an extension short of some crazy bargain. He just seems very much replaceable. Rafaella will hopefully prove to be a good maybe great fit for the team in CF for cheap and Duran can hopefully build on his success this year once again for cheap. My preference would be to find a real difference maker for LF/RF then to just bring back a slightly above average player in Verdugo. Don't ask me where that comes from, perhaps Roman Anthony really forces the issue but doubt he's going to be that guy for 2025 when they'll need a replacement for Verdugo. I do hear there's this guy out in SD named Soto who is pretty good though.. Truthfully, I might prefer just going with Duvall. I am not saying he’s necessarily a better player in isolation, but if you go Yoshida at DH, Duran in LF, and Rafaela in CF, it’d probably be better to have a decent glove, RH power hitter in RF than a good glove average LH hitter. There is a chance that Duran, Rafaela, Yoshida, and Verdugo combine for <60 HRs. It isn’t everything, obviously, but it does increase the pressure on Devers and Casas (two more LHs, as well). As much as anything, I just view Verdugo as odd-man out of a lineup that needs better balance. I'm perfectly fine with trading Verdugo, I certainly wouldn't give him a way for a bucket of balls. Not that I think you're calling for that but I do question what his actual trade value is? Perhaps there is a trade to be made out there with some other team looking for a LHH OF who has that RHH OF that you speak of that has a year left and maybe a 1 for 1 deal can be had. I'd be plenty happy to bring Duvall back for a year or two as well. I do agree I'd like to see some better balance with the lineup.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 18, 2023 11:16:30 GMT -5
I understand the points being made about Dugie, but want us to remember that he was a rare constant positive for much of the season, when he was hitting well and was considered the best defensive RF in the league. There is no reason to think he has lost all that goodness.
Crawford, Devers, Duran, Verdugo and Wong were all born in 1996. All still young and early in their prime. 2023 has shown, to me at least, not only enticing skills and drive but that they each still have much to learn. They are solid members of next year’s core.
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Post by manfred on Aug 18, 2023 11:17:29 GMT -5
Truthfully, I might prefer just going with Duvall. I am not saying he’s necessarily a better player in isolation, but if you go Yoshida at DH, Duran in LF, and Rafaela in CF, it’d probably be better to have a decent glove, RH power hitter in RF than a good glove average LH hitter. There is a chance that Duran, Rafaela, Yoshida, and Verdugo combine for <60 HRs. It isn’t everything, obviously, but it does increase the pressure on Devers and Casas (two more LHs, as well). As much as anything, I just view Verdugo as odd-man out of a lineup that needs better balance. I'm perfectly fine with trading Verdugo, I certainly wouldn't give him a way for a bucket of balls. Not that I think you're calling for that but I do question what his actual trade value is? Perhaps there is a trade to be made out there with some other team looking for a LHH OF who has that RHH OF that you speak of that has a year left and maybe a 1 for 1 deal can be had. I'd be plenty happy to bring Duvall back for a year or two as well. I do agree I'd like to see some better balance with the lineup. Definitely not a bucket of balls. I have zero sense of how to juggle all this, so I’m speaking in pure hypotheticals. Clearly you could go many directions, even including resigning Verdugo and trading a different OF — or just going for it with Duran, Rafaela, Verdugo. In that case, maybe the offense is bolstered by a big upgrade at second base?
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Aug 18, 2023 11:19:35 GMT -5
Truthfully, I might prefer just going with Duvall. I am not saying he’s necessarily a better player in isolation, but if you go Yoshida at DH, Duran in LF, and Rafaela in CF, it’d probably be better to have a decent glove, RH power hitter in RF than a good glove average LH hitter. There is a chance that Duran, Rafaela, Yoshida, and Verdugo combine for <60 HRs. It isn’t everything, obviously, but it does increase the pressure on Devers and Casas (two more LHs, as well). As much as anything, I just view Verdugo as odd-man out of a lineup that needs better balance. I'm perfectly fine with trading Verdugo, I certainly wouldn't give him a way for a bucket of balls. Not that I think you're calling for that but I do question what his actual trade value is? Perhaps there is a trade to be made out there with some other team looking for a LHH OF who has that RHH OF that you speak of that has a year left and maybe a 1 for 1 deal can be had. I'd be plenty happy to bring Duvall back for a year or two as well. I do agree I'd like to see some better balance with the lineup. Whatever the Sox do, I want it to be a significant upgrade to the lineup. If not, then wait until the next off season and go for a transformational talent like Soto.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 18, 2023 16:09:11 GMT -5
You can say that about the Celtics and Bruins in the past season, but not the Red Sox. The Red Sox very simply lack talent. The team is pedestrian. I don’t think it’s so simple. They have a good offense. There is some talented pitching. They also have pretty much the worst defense you will ever see at the major league level. Turner, Yoshida, Devers and Casas are all very good hitters but terrible defenders. Durran isn’t great in center. The Shortstops have largely been been terrible. Second basemen haven’t been much better. You can survive with a couple of bad defenders, but this… How many more years will Devers survive at third? Yoshida in left? This is a problem that's head will rear itself before too long and Turner is around for another year too. We may have 3 DH's by next year with2 in disguise.
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