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8/21-8/24 Red Sox @ Astros Series Thread
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 25, 2023 7:48:56 GMT -5
I hate to be a Debby Downer because despite the warm fuzzies we all have from the last 2 games. We sit in the same situation with Houston as we did when the series started EXCEPT 4 more games have passed and we are chasing 2 teams not one which makes it exponentially harder. Houston still wins the series because they knocked 4 more games off the schedule. Speaking of schedules we have the hardest strength of schedule left of any team in baseball and all of the teams we are chasing are in the middle of the pack or lower. We can't play well we have to go on a tear. This series simply punted the ball down the field, someone had to win the series for it to have really meant anything. If we won it, the series would have been a two-game swing and we'd be in the thick of it with some momentum, and if we lost we'd be on the ropes. I hate to over-emphasize one game or series but at this time of year with 5 weeks left and the position we are in......... Houston was also missing Yordan the last two games. I love the way how the team came out swinging yesterday, but they're still chasing the Astros and Mariners. Forget the Blue Jays. The Mariners might be the best team post ASB. Regardless of how they finish at least they didn't quit like the Yankees.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 25, 2023 7:53:16 GMT -5
I hate to be a Debby Downer because despite the warm fuzzies we all have from the last 2 games. We sit in the same situation with Houston as we did when the series started EXCEPT 4 more games have passed and we are chasing 2 teams not one which makes it exponentially harder. Houston still wins the series because they knocked 4 more games off the schedule. Speaking of schedules we have the hardest strength of schedule left of any team in baseball and all of the teams we are chasing are in the middle of the pack or lower. We can't play well we have to go on a tear. This series simply punted the ball down the field, someone had to win the series for it to have really meant anything. If we won it, the series would have been a two-game swing and we'd be in the thick of it with some momentum, and if we lost we'd be on the ropes. I hate to over-emphasize one game or series but at this time of year with 5 weeks left and the position we are in......... I would argue that splitting a road series at Houston puts us in a good position to pick up the tiebreaker against them with a series win at home. Our Fangraphs playoff odds actually rose 1.6% over the course of the series. Yes, Toronto and Texas struggling factored in, but we're in a better position with this series in the books.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 27, 2023 6:09:57 GMT -5
I hate to be a Debby Downer because despite the warm fuzzies we all have from the last 2 games. We sit in the same situation with Houston as we did when the series started EXCEPT 4 more games have passed and we are chasing 2 teams not one which makes it exponentially harder. Houston still wins the series because they knocked 4 more games off the schedule. Speaking of schedules we have the hardest strength of schedule left of any team in baseball and all of the teams we are chasing are in the middle of the pack or lower. We can't play well we have to go on a tear. This series simply punted the ball down the field, someone had to win the series for it to have really meant anything. If we won it, the series would have been a two-game swing and we'd be in the thick of it with some momentum, and if we lost we'd be on the ropes. I hate to over-emphasize one game or series but at this time of year with 5 weeks left and the position we are in......... I would argue that splitting a road series at Houston puts us in a good position to pick up the tiebreaker against them with a series win at home. Our Fangraphs playoff odds actually rose 1.6% over the course of the series. Yes, Toronto and Texas struggling factored in, but we're in a better position with this series in the books. You could argue that but you completely missed the point. I mentioned that time is big factor and merely playing well is not enough and that in order to make the playoffs they'd need to go on a tear and not just split series nor gain 1.6% after a series. Counting LA they have 11 series left, so by your measure of satisfaction they'd be out in the cold but they'd increase their chances to around 34%. But even that ignored the fact that the Red Sox have the hardest schedule for the rest of the season. Sorry I'm not seeing any logic at all here.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,990
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Post by cdj on Aug 27, 2023 8:29:29 GMT -5
I don’t think you’re breaking any news to anybody when you say “time is a factor”
Salvaging a split in that series was huge. Sure the odds remain long, but they would have been basically 0 if they decided to collapse instead.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 27, 2023 9:08:10 GMT -5
I would argue that splitting a road series at Houston puts us in a good position to pick up the tiebreaker against them with a series win at home. Our Fangraphs playoff odds actually rose 1.6% over the course of the series. Yes, Toronto and Texas struggling factored in, but we're in a better position with this series in the books. You could argue that but you completely missed the point. I mentioned that time is big factor and merely playing well is not enough and that in order to make the playoffs they'd need to go on a tear and not just split series nor gain 1.6% after a series. Counting LA they have 11 series left, so by your measure of satisfaction they'd be out in the cold but they'd increase their chances to around 34%. But even that ignored the fact that the Red Sox have the hardest schedule for the rest of the season. Sorry I'm not seeing any logic at all here. We are going to need better than a split in most other series. That was a very good team that we played on the road, though. That road series in Houston was probably the second hardest series remaining on the schedule, along with the road series in Baltimore to close out the year. A split was a fine result. Probability also doesn't work like that; it'll end at 100% or 0% no matter what. If we raise the percentage every series we are guaranteed to make the playoffs. We no longer have the hardest schedule for the rest of the season because we just finished six games against Houston and LAD. It is now 5th hardest. It has dropped from a .541 average opposing winning percentage to a .533. We'll probably be down to ~8th hardest with an average opposing win percentage in the mid .520s after this homestand. Our schedule is hard in large part because of this HOU/LAD/HOU stretch; the average opponent we'll face is weaker than HOU or LAD. After today it's 5 games against Tampa, 7 games against Baltimore, 9 games against teams (HOU, TEX, TOR) we're directly competing for a wild card spot with (which we want regardless of their winning percentage since it's a good opportunity to make up ground...and Texas is awful right now), and 10 games against bad teams (KC, CWS, NYY). Tampa has played .500 ball since June 8th and they're now down Franco, McClanahan, and others, so despite their .603 winning percentage and dominance against us this year those should be winnable games. Baltimore is the only great non-Wild Card opponent left on the schedule, and there's actually reason for optimism there too. First of all, 4 of the 7 games we have left with them are the last four games of the year. No guarantees of course, but if Baltimore has enough cushion for playoff seeding they could rest some regulars in that series. Also their closer Bautista is now injured; no clue when he's expected back, but if he's out for some of our games against them that would be a lift in the late innings. So, there are plenty of opportunities to win games and make up ground going forward. Obviously 3/4 or 4/4 would have been great, but we did what we had to do in Houston.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 27, 2023 17:51:49 GMT -5
I don’t think you’re breaking any news to anybody when you say “time is a factor” Salvaging a split in that series was huge. Sure the odds remain long, but they would have been basically 0 if they decided to collapse instead. The split may have felt good considering they lost the last two, but they dug themselves a hole, and even though a split was reasonable in these circumstances they needed the unreasonable three for it to have mattered. It was putting themselves in the same sitation with 4 less games to go, not good.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 29, 2023 22:25:31 GMT -5
You could argue that but you completely missed the point. I mentioned that time is big factor and merely playing well is not enough and that in order to make the playoffs they'd need to go on a tear and not just split series nor gain 1.6% after a series. Counting LA they have 11 series left, so by your measure of satisfaction they'd be out in the cold but they'd increase their chances to around 34%. But even that ignored the fact that the Red Sox have the hardest schedule for the rest of the season. Sorry I'm not seeing any logic at all here. We are going to need better than a split in most other series. That was a very good team that we played on the road, though. That road series in Houston was probably the second hardest series remaining on the schedule, along with the road series in Baltimore to close out the year. A split was a fine result. Probability also doesn't work like that; it'll end at 100% or 0% no matter what. If we raise the percentage every series we are guaranteed to make the playoffs. We no longer have the hardest schedule for the rest of the season because we just finished six games against Houston and LAD. It is now 5th hardest. It has dropped from a .541 average opposing winning percentage to a .533. We'll probably be down to ~8th hardest with an average opposing win percentage in the mid .520s after this homestand. Our schedule is hard in large part because of this HOU/LAD/HOU stretch; the average opponent we'll face is weaker than HOU or LAD. After today it's 5 games against Tampa, 7 games against Baltimore, 9 games against teams (HOU, TEX, TOR) we're directly competing for a wild card spot with (which we want regardless of their winning percentage since it's a good opportunity to make up ground...and Texas is awful right now), and 10 games against bad teams (KC, CWS, NYY). Tampa has played .500 ball since June 8th and they're now down Franco, McClanahan, and others, so despite their .603 winning percentage and dominance against us this year those should be winnable games. Baltimore is the only great non-Wild Card opponent left on the schedule, and there's actually reason for optimism there too. First of all, 4 of the 7 games we have left with them are the last four games of the year. No guarantees of course, but if Baltimore has enough cushion for playoff seeding they could rest some regulars in that series. Also their closer Bautista is now injured; no clue when he's expected back, but if he's out for some of our games against them that would be a lift in the late innings. So, there are plenty of opportunities to win games and make up ground going forward. Obviously 3/4 or 4/4 would have been great, but we did what we had to do in Houston. With 30 games left you are pointing out the difference between .541 WP verse .533, you do understand how moot that is it's less than 1 one over a hundred games and we are taking about 30 games left. Cling to straws all you want but acknowledge that is what your are doing as the season effectively ended when they split with Houston last week.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 30, 2023 7:41:36 GMT -5
We are going to need better than a split in most other series. That was a very good team that we played on the road, though. That road series in Houston was probably the second hardest series remaining on the schedule, along with the road series in Baltimore to close out the year. A split was a fine result. Probability also doesn't work like that; it'll end at 100% or 0% no matter what. If we raise the percentage every series we are guaranteed to make the playoffs. We no longer have the hardest schedule for the rest of the season because we just finished six games against Houston and LAD. It is now 5th hardest. It has dropped from a .541 average opposing winning percentage to a .533. We'll probably be down to ~8th hardest with an average opposing win percentage in the mid .520s after this homestand. Our schedule is hard in large part because of this HOU/LAD/HOU stretch; the average opponent we'll face is weaker than HOU or LAD. After today it's 5 games against Tampa, 7 games against Baltimore, 9 games against teams (HOU, TEX, TOR) we're directly competing for a wild card spot with (which we want regardless of their winning percentage since it's a good opportunity to make up ground...and Texas is awful right now), and 10 games against bad teams (KC, CWS, NYY). Tampa has played .500 ball since June 8th and they're now down Franco, McClanahan, and others, so despite their .603 winning percentage and dominance against us this year those should be winnable games. Baltimore is the only great non-Wild Card opponent left on the schedule, and there's actually reason for optimism there too. First of all, 4 of the 7 games we have left with them are the last four games of the year. No guarantees of course, but if Baltimore has enough cushion for playoff seeding they could rest some regulars in that series. Also their closer Bautista is now injured; no clue when he's expected back, but if he's out for some of our games against them that would be a lift in the late innings. So, there are plenty of opportunities to win games and make up ground going forward. Obviously 3/4 or 4/4 would have been great, but we did what we had to do in Houston. With 30 games left you are pointing out the difference between .541 WP verse .533, you do understand how moot that is it's less than 1 one over a hundred games and we are taking about 30 games left. Cling to straws all you want but acknowledge that is what your are doing as the season effectively ended when they split with Houston last week. Again, the split raised our odds of making the playoffs. It did not end the season; if you feel that way after that series, you should think the season was already over at the start of that series. 17% is not clutching at straws. It is a real chance. Around one in six. Winning this series against Houston probably would have raised those odds again, and we would have had an even more realistic shot. Now it's more like 7%, and personally I've given up on the playoffs. The first game of this series was demoralizing enough that it killed all of the fun I was having with this stretch run. Not even sure if I can bring myself to watch much, but maybe I just need a little break.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 1, 2023 15:03:39 GMT -5
With 30 games left you are pointing out the difference between .541 WP verse .533, you do understand how moot that is it's less than 1 one over a hundred games and we are taking about 30 games left. Cling to straws all you want but acknowledge that is what your are doing as the season effectively ended when they split with Houston last week. Again, the split raised our odds of making the playoffs. It did not end the season; if you feel that way after that series, you should think the season was already over at the start of that series. 17% is not clutching at straws. It is a real chance. Around one in six. Winning this series against Houston probably would have raised those odds again, and we would have had an even more realistic shot. Now it's more like 7%, and personally I've given up on the playoffs. The first game of this series was demoralizing enough that it killed all of the fun I was having with this stretch run. Not even sure if I can bring myself to watch much, but maybe I just need a little break. There is always next year. The future is bright and I think we are one or two years away from being a perennial playoff team/contender at least. I thought the team was a 85 win team that would actually contend until a month to go which it appears the blind squirrel here is finding its nut. As unrealistic as it was to think we could take 3 of 4 in Houston I felt we truly had to in order to make the push at least last into the final week of the season, for all the reasons I stated over 10 games ago. It was just to deep a hole created by the team not to make the stand then and there. Better health and better starting pitching next year will go a long way.
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