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Post by nonothing on Aug 21, 2023 0:48:12 GMT -5
Is this the best place to ask who people expect up when rosters expand?
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Post by keninten on Aug 21, 2023 2:34:20 GMT -5
Is this the best place to ask who people expect up when rosters expand? Pretty sure it`s only 2 that can be added to the roster. |
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Post by jphelan on Aug 21, 2023 7:55:04 GMT -5
I wouldn't be surprised if Rafaela is called up especially depending on the severity of the Duran injury.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 21, 2023 8:13:29 GMT -5
Just made a new thread. F'real, don't be afraid to do that, folks.
Since they cut it to 28 in September, it was Jack Lopez and Schreiber in 2021 (kind of - they also put Bogaerts and Munoz on the COVID IL while activating Brasier and Danny Santana from the IL), Wong and Bazardo last year.
Although they easily could (Kluber to 60-day still hasn't happened and if Llovera is the move for Houck tomorrow that will open a spot), I don't see why they would go off of the 40-man. Hitter seems one of Hamilton, Valdez, Rafaela or Abreu. Rafaela seems to check a lot of boxes... On the pitcher side, you'd think either Walter or Barraclough. I note that if the latter comes up on 9/1, I think it prevents him from burning his final option this year, so that seems to make him the likely guy.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 21, 2023 8:48:07 GMT -5
Options for the hitter call up and their hypothetical added value:
Valdez (lefty platoon infielder)
Hamilton (lefty infielder, pinch runner)
Dalbec (righty pinch hitter)
Abreu (lefty pinch hitter, maybe some defense value in the OF)
Rafaela (righty platoon OF, defensive replacement, pinch runner)
Rafaela makes the most sense to me. I could see Hamilton just for the running too. Valdez I think would make sense, but if they thought his defense was good enough to be the strong side of a platoon they would have had him up a long time ago I think.
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Post by jmei on Aug 21, 2023 8:53:58 GMT -5
One thing working against Rafaela is that he arguably needs the development time in AAA the most of those options. (Of course, you could flip that the other way and say that he has the most upside and most to gain from a AAA cup of coffee.)
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2023 9:22:24 GMT -5
Options for the hitter call up and their hypothetical added value: Valdez (lefty platoon infielder) Hamilton (lefty infielder, pinch runner) Dalbec (righty pinch hitter) Abreu (lefty pinch hitter, maybe some defense value in the OF) Rafaela (righty platoon OF, defensive replacement, pinch runner) Rafaela makes the most sense to me. I could see Hamilton just for the running too. Valdez I think would make sense, but if they thought his defense was good enough to be the strong side of a platoon they would have had him up a long time ago I think. Valdez - the only time you would use him would be to pinch hit for Reyes/Urias (and maybe Connor Wong?) and at present I would have very little appetite for that Hamilton - could pinch run for Yoshi, Casas, Turner etc. in a close game, but otherwise you're not using him to hit or field Dalbec - could pinch hit against a LHP, but in most cases not sure why you wouldn't just go to Refsnyder (or Duvall if available) Abreu - if Duran's foot is more severely injured than expected, could kinda see this. But otherwise unsure who he is starting over, pinch hitting for, or used as a defensive replacement for. Rafaela - can pinch run (as you noted), can go to CF in the late innings so they can move Duran/Duvall to left field while Masa subs out. Can even spell Story at SS when they want him to have a day off.
Completely agree on Rafaela. Considering the team doesn't even really have a pure CF (Duran and Duvall have been fine in CF, but are better suited for corner OF), the defense alone is appetizing, and you can likely hide his bat on the bench or in the 9 hole for a month, if it turns out the bat isn't ready. |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 21, 2023 9:35:47 GMT -5
Just made a new thread. F'real, don't be afraid to do that, folks. Since they cut it to 28 in September, it was Jack Lopez and Schreiber in 2021 (kind of - they also put Bogaerts and Munoz on the COVID IL while activating Brasier and Danny Santana from the IL), Wong and Bazardo last year. Although they easily could (Kluber to 60-day still hasn't happened and if Llovera is the move for Houck tomorrow that will open a spot), I don't see why they would go off of the 40-man. Hitter seems one of Hamilton, Valdez, Rafaela or Abreu. Rafaela seems to check a lot of boxes... On the pitcher side, you'd think either Walter or Barraclough. I note that if the latter comes up on 9/1, I think it prevents him from burning his final option this year, so that seems to make him the likely guy. Had to Google to see if Jack Lopez was real or not |
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Aug 21, 2023 10:30:47 GMT -5
If the Sox are still within striking distance of a playoff spot and no regulars are on the IL, I would bring up Hamilton to have a late game PR weapon. If we have slipped to 5 or more games out of the WC spot, I would add Rafaela and make him a regular for the last month.
For the pitcher Walter in either case. Another lefty and one who may be a candidate to be on the 2024 staff.
Of course it is still not to late for Chaim to look for a new piece from the junk pile.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Aug 21, 2023 10:35:25 GMT -5
Just made a new thread. F'real, don't be afraid to do that, folks. Since they cut it to 28 in September, it was Jack Lopez and Schreiber in 2021 (kind of - they also put Bogaerts and Munoz on the COVID IL while activating Brasier and Danny Santana from the IL), Wong and Bazardo last year. Although they easily could (Kluber to 60-day still hasn't happened and if Llovera is the move for Houck tomorrow that will open a spot), I don't see why they would go off of the 40-man. Hitter seems one of Hamilton, Valdez, Rafaela or Abreu. Rafaela seems to check a lot of boxes... On the pitcher side, you'd think either Walter or Barraclough. I note that if the latter comes up on 9/1, I think it prevents him from burning his final option this year, so that seems to make him the likely guy. Had to Google to see if Jack Lopez was real or not Thank goodness they found Iglesias on Labor Day 2021. Saved 2B for the rest of the season ! |
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Aug 21, 2023 13:01:59 GMT -5
For a position player, it has to be Rafaela. Sure, Hamilton has speed, but Rafaela is damn close. And as noted, he can actually catch and throw a baseball unlike Hamilton. Ceddanne gives you all the late season tools you need; makes too much damn sense.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 21, 2023 13:07:43 GMT -5
For a position player, it has to be Rafaela. Sure, Hamilton has speed, but Rafaela is damn close. And as noted, he can actually catch and throw a baseball unlike Hamilton. Ceddanne gives you all the late season tools you need; makes too much damn sense. Fwiw, if the spot is going to be used primarily for a pinch runner (big if!), it's not actually that close. Hamilton is stealing at an 81% rate this year, Rafaela at 72%. Might not seem like a big difference but the MLB average is 79%. Rafaela is just 4 for 9 in AAA as well. Rafaela is fast but he's not looking like a stolen base threat, this season at least. But again, it really all depends what they want to use the spot for. |
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Aug 21, 2023 13:24:32 GMT -5
For a position player, it has to be Rafaela. Sure, Hamilton has speed, but Rafaela is damn close. And as noted, he can actually catch and throw a baseball unlike Hamilton. Ceddanne gives you all the late season tools you need; makes too much damn sense. I agree with your point of view, if, the Sox have an injury to an outfielder or are out of any reasonable chance to make the post season. In each case he could play full time. Otherwise he should stay at AAA and get regular at bats. |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 21, 2023 13:56:56 GMT -5
One thing working against Rafaela is that he arguably needs the development time in AAA the most of those options. (Of course, you could flip that the other way and say that he has the most upside and most to gain from a AAA cup of coffee.) I'm not so sure about this. Rafaela has had an abundance of time to alter his approach at AA and AAA over the past 2 years but his K-rate, BB-rate and Chase-rate have remained fairly consistent. If the issue is that he needs to see more pitches to better identify bad pitches, that makes some sense, but if it's the approach then I think failing at the MLB level would help more than anything. And of course if he doesn't fail, he would be one of the better players on the Red Sox (I assume he will fail at least a little). |
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Post by jmei on Aug 21, 2023 14:08:51 GMT -5
One thing working against Rafaela is that he arguably needs the development time in AAA the most of those options. (Of course, you could flip that the other way and say that he has the most upside and most to gain from a AAA cup of coffee.) I'm not so sure about this. Rafaela has had an abundance of time to alter his approach at AA and AAA over the past 2 years but his K-rate, BB-rate and Chase-rate have remained fairly consistent. If the issue is that he needs to see more pitches to better identify bad pitches, that makes some sense, but if it's the approach then I think failing at the MLB level would help more than anything. And of course if he doesn't fail, he would be one of the better players on the Red Sox (I assume he will fail at least a little). Lots of AA playing time, sure, but (1) only 188 PAs in AAA so far, and AAA is the level where he faces more of those crafty veterans that might be able to exploit his chase rate, and (2) if the 28th man is only going to be getting periodic plate appearances, they may want Rafaela to be getting more regular playing time in AAA (whereas they have less concern about those other guys mostly riding the bench for a month). |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 21, 2023 14:21:12 GMT -5
So I guess, what do they need?
C Wong
BU-C McGuire (L)
1B Casas (L)
2B/BU-SS Reyes
SS Story
3B Devers (L)
DH/BU-CIF Turner
BU-MIF Urias
OF Duran (L)
OF Duvall
OF Verdugo (L)
OF/DH Yoshida (L)
OF vs. LHP/BU-OF Refsnyder
The candidates:
CF/SS Rafaela
2B/PR Hamilton (L)
2B vs. RHP Valdez (L)
RHPH Dalbec
6th OF Abreu (L)
- I don't see the fit for Abreu. He'd just be another LHH OF.
- I left off Chang and Arroyo because I don't see the fit at all there either.
- I think it comes down to the versatility of Rafaela vs. the speed of Hamilton vs. Valdez's ability to hit RHP vs. Dalbec's ability to do same, factoring which they're most ok with missing 3.5 weeks (or more if they make the playoffs!) of development time playing sporadically in the majors.
I think I just talked myself into Dalbec being an option with Hamilton and Rafaela.
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Post by jmei on Aug 21, 2023 14:50:04 GMT -5
If I think about the one skill they need the most on the roster, it's outfield defense in my mind. Duran, Duvall and Refsnyder are all below average at CF and Yoshida is below average in LF. There's a clear fit there in just about every game in the late innings to insert Rafaela at CF, push their starting CF to LF and push their starting LF to DH once the DH has batted in the 7th or later. Plus, while he's not an elite basestealer, he's a solid "fast guy" pinchrunner, and he can even pinch hit for a LHH vs. a lefty reliever, especially in a situation where you need contact (e.g., man at third with less than two outs).
Meanwhile:
-Pinch runner: you would pinch-run for McGuire, Casas, Turner, Devers and Yoshida in a late-and-close situation. But Wong is fast enough to run for McGuire and whichever of Story, Reyes and Urias isn't starting is fast enough to run for any of the rest. The real value-add of Hamilton is not to just be a fast guy off the bench, but a fast guy who can comfortably steal a base, which they admittedly don't have on their existing roster (and which Rafaela is not that great at). But will that situation emerge often enough to be worth carrying a 28th man who adds little-to-no value as a hitter and as a defender?
-RHH off the bench: they have an acceptable RHH on the bench now (whichever of Duvall and Refsnyder isn't playing). If they're both playing, which LHH are you pinch hitting for? Maybe Casas or that third outfielder, but I'm not sure I'd rather have Dalbec over Casas or Yoshida/Verdugo in that situation, and how often would it come up? One pro for Dalbec is if Turner's foot is still acting up, in which case Dalbec would add value as a backup at 1B/3B.
-LHH off the bench: which of the starting RHH is that guy hitting for? Maybe Wong or one of the middle infielders, but is Valdez better than those guys even with the platoon advantage, and how often would it come up?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 21, 2023 14:50:28 GMT -5
Lots of AA playing time, sure, but (1) only 188 PAs in AAA so far, and AAA is the level where he faces more of those crafty veterans that might be able to exploit his chase rate, and (2) if the 28th man is only going to be getting periodic plate appearances, they may want Rafaela to be getting more regular playing time in AAA (whereas they have less concern about those other guys mostly riding the bench for a month). I agree with your second point - if they aren't going to play him much then it may not be the best thing for his development. But would giving him an extra month of additional PA be more valuable than increasing the MLB team's chances of making the playoffs? In terms of the 'crafty veterans', I had the same concern upon his promotion to AAA. But after 188 PA it hasn't happened and I imagine those same crafty veterans would have already known that he was a free swinger. What do you think will change from now until the end of the season? Do you think they've been unaware of his habits up until this point? |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 21, 2023 15:04:48 GMT -5
- I think it comes down to the versatility of Rafaela vs. the speed of Hamilton vs. Valdez's ability to hit RHP vs. Dalbec's ability to do same, factoring which they're most ok with missing 3.5 weeks (or more if they make the playoffs!) of development time playing sporadically in the majors. I think I just talked myself into Dalbec being an option with Hamilton and Rafaela. I'm not sure I understand this part. Valdez is a LHH with -69/95 lefty/righty wRC+ splits. Dalbec is a RHH with 127/83 lefty/righty wRC+ career splits. Do you mean Dalbec's ability to hit LHPs? If they're looking for a player to hit just RHPs off the bench, I would prefer Valdez - especially because he's passable at 2B which helps given that the 3 middle infielders are all right-handed (would be nice if he could play ss though). Can't imagine he's a good enough prospect to keep in AAA if the Red Sox think he's the best option for the big league club. |
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Post by redsoxpride34 on Aug 21, 2023 15:57:01 GMT -5
Having Duval and Refsnyder on the roster really doesn't make sense. Both are right handed bench bats who are mediocre fielders and should not be playing CF. Neither are hitting well to boot. Ref in particular is borderline useless. He's 4 for 22 (.182 avg) as a pinch hitter, 12 for 72 (.167 avg, .482 ops) vs righties. So really he can only start against lefties and even though has a good avg against them, he's primarily a singles hitter. He'll be 33 heading into next season. Really can't see the justification for him keeping his roster spot. Duval at least has prior success to draw from. Ref was a career negative war player when the sox picked him up a few seasons ago.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 21, 2023 16:07:02 GMT -5
Having Duval and Refsnyder on the roster really doesn't make sense. Both are right handed bench bats who are mediocre fielders and should not be playing CF. Neither are hitting well to boot. Ref in particular is borderline useless. He's 4 for 22 (.182 avg) as a pinch hitter, 12 for 72 (.167 avg, .482 ops) vs righties. So really he can only start against lefties and even though has a good avg against them, he's primarily a singles hitter. He'll be 33 heading into next season. Really can't see the justification for him keeping his roster spot. Duval at least has prior success to draw from. Ref was a career negative war player when the sox picked him up a few seasons ago. A couple thoughts on this: - not sure how it’s relevant to September call ups - I think Duvall is a starting caliber player, he’s been one of Bostons best players this year on a rate basis - I don’t think Refsnyder’s stats from before the Red Sox are at all relevant at this point. A more relevant stat is he is one of the highest OBP players in the league against lefties and has a wRC+ over 130 against them All that said I think it’s a fair off-season consideration to move Refsnyder, maybe there’s a better use of that bench spot, but I’m totally fine with him in his role at his money |
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Aug 21, 2023 16:09:25 GMT -5
Having Duval and Refsnyder on the roster really doesn't make sense. Both are right handed bench bats who are mediocre fielders and should not be playing CF. Neither are hitting well to boot. Ref in particular is borderline useless. He's 4 for 22 (.182 avg) as a pinch hitter, 12 for 72 (.167 avg, .482 ops) vs righties. So really he can only start against lefties and even though has a good avg against them, he's primarily a singles hitter. He'll be 33 heading into next season. Really can't see the justification for him keeping his roster spot. Duval at least has prior success to draw from. Ref was a career negative war player when the sox picked him up a few seasons ago. Are you advocating for Refsnyder to be released to create another roster spot now ? Sox already signed him for next year, just can not see that happening. |
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Post by incandenza on Aug 21, 2023 16:18:21 GMT -5
Having Duval and Refsnyder on the roster really doesn't make sense. Both are right handed bench bats who are mediocre fielders and should not be playing CF. Neither are hitting well to boot. Ref in particular is borderline useless. He's 4 for 22 (.182 avg) as a pinch hitter, 12 for 72 (.167 avg, .482 ops) vs righties. So really he can only start against lefties and even though has a good avg against them, he's primarily a singles hitter. He'll be 33 heading into next season. Really can't see the justification for him keeping his roster spot. Duval at least has prior success to draw from. Ref was a career negative war player when the sox picked him up a few seasons ago. This was a fun little way to rhetorically dance around the fact that he leads the team in OBP. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 21, 2023 16:23:55 GMT -5
September call ups thread. If you want to get dunked on for suggesting the Red Sox release Rob Refsnyder please do so in a separate thread please. Thanks.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 21, 2023 16:24:27 GMT -5
- I think it comes down to the versatility of Rafaela vs. the speed of Hamilton vs. Valdez's ability to hit RHP vs. Dalbec's ability to do same, factoring which they're most ok with missing 3.5 weeks (or more if they make the playoffs!) of development time playing sporadically in the majors. I think I just talked myself into Dalbec being an option with Hamilton and Rafaela. I'm not sure I understand this part. Valdez is a LHH with -69/95 lefty/righty wRC+ splits. Dalbec is a RHH with 127/83 lefty/righty wRC+ career splits. Do you mean Dalbec's ability to hit LHPs? If they're looking for a player to hit just RHPs off the bench, I would prefer Valdez - especially because he's passable at 2B which helps given that the 3 middle infielders are all right-handed (would be nice if he could play ss though). Can't imagine he's a good enough prospect to keep in AAA if the Red Sox think he's the best option for the big league club. Was literally just thinking RHH. Fair points. |
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