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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 16, 2023 21:59:28 GMT -5
The outfield is a very interesting group heading into the off-season, with an interesting mix of youth, veterans, potential trade candidates, and expiring contracts. The team currently has five (5) outfielders on the 26-man roster, which is a reasonable number with a four-man bench and versatile players. To my knowledge, Sam Kennedy has not specifically ruled out any members of this chat board for consideration as the next POOBAH (Presiding Officer Of Baseball Administrative Handling), so here's your chance to vote for the five outfielders you would roster next season if you had your druthers. Explain yourself in the comments and you may receive an invitation to interview on Jersey Street (BYO sausage cart)! In 6.5 short months, we'll see how close we come as a group to getting it right!
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 16, 2023 23:21:06 GMT -5
I chose Wilyer, Jarren and Ceddanne, with the other votes going to "not currently in the system". Looking for speed, youth, defense, bat skill, some power
It's a radical set of selections, represents major change - but that's what I think is needed.
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Post by keninten on Sept 16, 2023 23:29:30 GMT -5
I put Yoshida down as one but think he will be the DH. Which would leave room for another OFer.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Sept 17, 2023 0:29:20 GMT -5
I don't know which direction they should take, but one thing I do not want to see is Duran in a corner. He is good enough to play center in the majors, putting him in a corner is wasting his talent. If you think Rafaela is good enough to be the everyday CF in 2024 then I would like to see Duran traded. If not then I'd like to see Rafaela traded. Just don't keep both of them please.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 17, 2023 0:41:29 GMT -5
I don't know which direction they should take, but one thing I do not want to see is Duran in a corner. He is good enough to play center in the majors, putting him in a corner is wasting his talent. If you think Rafaela is good enough to be the everyday CF in 2024 then I would like to see Duran traded. If not then I'd like to see Rafaela traded. Just don't keep both of them please. Maybe Duran in CF and Rafaela, with his cannon, in RF. Both are still learning but the sky's the limit! |
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Post by awalkinthepark on Sept 17, 2023 0:43:34 GMT -5
I don't know which direction they should take, but one thing I do not want to see is Duran in a corner. He is good enough to play center in the majors, putting him in a corner is wasting his talent. If you think Rafaela is good enough to be the everyday CF in 2024 then I would like to see Duran traded. If not then I'd like to see Rafaela traded. Just don't keep both of them please. Maybe Duran in CF and Rafaela, with his cannon, in RF. Both are still learning but the sky's the limit! I feel the same way about Rafaela. If someone is capable of playing CF, then they should be in CF. There enough teams without a competent centerfielder who would pay a premium to get a cost controlled one. |
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Post by soxinsf on Sept 17, 2023 5:13:59 GMT -5
In Fenway, you need an RF with a cannon. Put me down as wanting Cedanne in RF; Duvall in CF; Duran in LF. Yes, he is a CF but occasionally takes the long route and has a weaker arm than Duvall. Anthony is the CF of the future.
Dougie will soon get expensive. And Yoshida is better as a DH. BUT, sooner than later one or both of Devers and Casas become better DHs than corner infielders.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 17, 2023 5:51:21 GMT -5
I vote Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Yoshida, and a RHH power-hitting OF not currently in the system, hopefully better than Duvall. That player should be able to handle most of the RF duties, including at Fenway. (Or CF, moving Rafaela to RF).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 17, 2023 8:02:49 GMT -5
I put Yoshida down as one but think he will be the DH. Which would leave room for another OFer. Same here. I didnt check off Abreu but would if Yoshida is the DH as I'd anticipate him to be. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 17, 2023 8:17:24 GMT -5
I don't know which direction they should take, but one thing I do not want to see is Duran in a corner. He is good enough to play center in the majors, putting him in a corner is wasting his talent. If you think Rafaela is good enough to be the everyday CF in 2024 then I would like to see Duran traded. If not then I'd like to see Rafaela traded. Just don't keep both of them please. Unless Duran improves again I do not think he’s good enough defensively to play center. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 17, 2023 8:19:42 GMT -5
Verdugo getting the least votes in this poll is pretty surprising to me. Of all the guys on it he’s by far the one I’m most confident in having a good season next year.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 17, 2023 9:10:46 GMT -5
Verdugo getting the least votes in this poll is pretty surprising to me. Of all the guys on it he’s by far the one I’m most confident in having a good season next year. It's wild to me. He'll almost certainly have the highest WAR projection on this list and he'll be significantly underpaid. |
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Post by manfred on Sept 17, 2023 9:15:31 GMT -5
Verdugo getting the least votes in this poll is pretty surprising to me. Of all the guys on it he’s by far the one I’m most confident in having a good season next year. It's wild to me. He'll almost certainly have the highest WAR projection on this list and he'll be significantly underpaid. He is currently a negative offensive player on fangraphs. His wRC+ is 102 and falling. If he is having problems with his hands, they should shut him down, because otherwise he is going to end the season with truly rough offensive numbers. His WAR is literally almost all defense. I think most of us want to see a guy who hits more. I suspect, too, after a rough stretch, many would rather go with new blood than a known quantity, and of all the guys on the list, he is the one with the most predictable outcome. And Jarren Duran is ahead of Verdugo in fWAR. |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 17, 2023 9:32:02 GMT -5
It's wild to me. He'll almost certainly have the highest WAR projection on this list and he'll be significantly underpaid. He is currently a negative offensive player on fangraphs. His wRC+ is 102 and falling. If he is having problems with his hands, they should shut him down, because otherwise he is going to end the season with truly rough offensive numbers. His WAR is literally almost all defense. I think most of us want to see a guy who hits more. I suspect, too, after a rough stretch, many would rather go with new blood than a known quantity, and of all the guys on the list, he is the one with the most predictable outcome. And Jarren Duran is ahead of Verdugo in fWAR. Well first of all, geez, I hadn't realized his wRC+ had fallen that much. I feel like I checked like 3 days ago and it was 110. But second of all, 102 is, by definition, still above average, let alone above replacement level. Third, yeah, if he's playing through something, I don't know what the point of continuing to start him is. But fourth, defense counts too, this team was conspicuously bad on defense, he's been the team's best defensive player all season, and that makes it even crazier to me that people are so willing to part with him. And fifth, I'd be surprised if Duran *projects* for more WAR next season, in ZiPS and such. |
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Post by manfred on Sept 17, 2023 9:43:50 GMT -5
He is currently a negative offensive player on fangraphs. His wRC+ is 102 and falling. If he is having problems with his hands, they should shut him down, because otherwise he is going to end the season with truly rough offensive numbers. His WAR is literally almost all defense. I think most of us want to see a guy who hits more. I suspect, too, after a rough stretch, many would rather go with new blood than a known quantity, and of all the guys on the list, he is the one with the most predictable outcome. And Jarren Duran is ahead of Verdugo in fWAR. Well first of all, geez, I hadn't realized his wRC+ had fallen that much. I feel like I checked like 3 days ago and it was 110. But second of all, 102 is, by definition, still above average, let alone above replacement level. Third, yeah, if he's playing through something, I don't know what the point of continuing to start him is. But fourth, defense counts too, this team was conspicuously bad on defense, he's been the team's best defensive player all season, and that makes it even crazier to me that people are so willing to part with him. And fifth, I'd be surprised if Duran *projects* for more WAR next season, in ZiPS and such. I don’t much care about ZIPS. What did Duran project this year? They missed on Yoshida by about 2.5 WAR. Defense does count, but if they have Rafaela in CF and an average RF, they are still much better than they are this year. It is above average, but he’s about 2-3 games away from being sub-100. You can’t deny that the combination of Yoshida and Verdugo makes for a non-contending OF. We are more stuck with Yoshida (and moving him to DH creates as many problems as it solves). So Verdugo is also partly just odd man out. Lastly, from my standpoint, not counting him is a bit of a backhanded compliment. I think he is probably the best trade piece of the lot. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 17, 2023 9:54:14 GMT -5
It's wild to me. He'll almost certainly have the highest WAR projection on this list and he'll be significantly underpaid. He is currently a negative offensive player on fangraphs. His wRC+ is 102 and falling. If he is having problems with his hands, they should shut him down, because otherwise he is going to end the season with truly rough offensive numbers. His WAR is literally almost all defense. I think most of us want to see a guy who hits more. I suspect, too, after a rough stretch, many would rather go with new blood than a known quantity, and of all the guys on the list, he is the one with the most predictable outcome. And Jarren Duran is ahead of Verdugo in fWAR. I was surprised about the below average Off value for Verdugo, so looked at it and his hitting is above average but his base running is dragging him below. He shouldn’t be a negative base runner. The Red Sox as a team are 26th in baseball in baserunning value and that’s just annoying. They have some slow guys but being that bad is also partially a coaching thing. Gotta get that cleaned up. |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 17, 2023 9:54:19 GMT -5
Well first of all, geez, I hadn't realized his wRC+ had fallen that much. I feel like I checked like 3 days ago and it was 110. But second of all, 102 is, by definition, still above average, let alone above replacement level. Third, yeah, if he's playing through something, I don't know what the point of continuing to start him is. But fourth, defense counts too, this team was conspicuously bad on defense, he's been the team's best defensive player all season, and that makes it even crazier to me that people are so willing to part with him. And fifth, I'd be surprised if Duran *projects* for more WAR next season, in ZiPS and such. I don’t much care about ZIPS. What did Duran project this year? They missed on Yoshida by about 2.5 WAR. Defense does count, but if they have Rafaela in CF and an average RF, they are still much better than they are this year. It is above average, but he’s about 2-3 games away from being sub-100. You can’t deny that the combination of Yoshida and Verdugo makes for a non-contending OF. We are more stuck with Yoshida (and moving him to DH creates as many problems as it solves). So Verdugo is also partly just odd man out. Lastly, from my standpoint, not counting him is a bit of a backhanded compliment. I think he is probably the best trade piece of the lot. Okay, but the people who voted in this poll collectively seem to want a Duran/Rafaela/Abreu outfield, which would be wildly risky, and if you think Verdugo is a liability as merely a 2 WAR player then I don't understand why you'd be content with that set. Not that I'm assuming that is your specific preference, but then, who is? If you need to upgrade Verdugo, who's the guy?
Guys on the FA list who I think would be as good or better than Verdugo: Bellinger. Maybe Teoscar. Maybe Duvall. That's it. |
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 17, 2023 9:59:22 GMT -5
I think the key question is what to do with all the left handed bats in the outfield? Duran, Abreu, Yoshida, Verdugo.
Verdugo is likely the strongest trade chip, so I think that's why people are leaving him off their list. I could also see them trying to start the season with Abreu in the minors as depth knowing that it'll be inevitable someone will get injured and he'll be up soon thereafter.
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Post by manfred on Sept 17, 2023 10:03:54 GMT -5
I don’t much care about ZIPS. What did Duran project this year? They missed on Yoshida by about 2.5 WAR. Defense does count, but if they have Rafaela in CF and an average RF, they are still much better than they are this year. It is above average, but he’s about 2-3 games away from being sub-100. You can’t deny that the combination of Yoshida and Verdugo makes for a non-contending OF. We are more stuck with Yoshida (and moving him to DH creates as many problems as it solves). So Verdugo is also partly just odd man out. Lastly, from my standpoint, not counting him is a bit of a backhanded compliment. I think he is probably the best trade piece of the lot. Okay, but the people who voted in this poll collectively seem to want a Duran/Rafaela/Abreu outfield, which would be wildly risky, and if you think Verdugo is a liability as merely a 2 WAR player then I don't understand why you'd be content with that set. Not that I'm assuming that is your specific preference, but then, who is? If you need to upgrade Verdugo, who's the guy?
Guys on the FA list who I think would be as good or better than Verdugo: Bellinger. Maybe Teoscar. Maybe Duvall. That's it. Dunno. Look, I am not foaming to get rid of him. But my view is this: when your team is mediocre, and there is a guy who is basically mediocrity chiseled in stone, you are not going to make a jump sticking with him. The three young guys clearly risk being worse. But what is there to lose? 2 WAR minus what they produce. Oh well. From a mediocre team to… still pretty mediocre. But something has to change. Who to replace? I don’t know. I mean, it is a problem across the board. I don’t want to spend huge on Bellinger or Teoscar. But elsewhere, I don’t want to spend on Nola. Snell will cost a fortune after he wins his second CY. I guess they can go hard at Yamamoto. They are in a pickle. But if they traded Verdugo for a couple promising low-level guys, I’d be happy. I don’t think there is a very high likelihood they can be a top-10 team (MLB, I mean) next year, so the question is also largely do you want to resign him? I don’t. So why just play it out? |
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 17, 2023 10:03:54 GMT -5
I think the key question is what to do with all the left handed bats in the outfield? Duran, Abreu, Yoshida, Verdugo. Verdugo is likely the strongest trade chip, so I think that's why people are leaving him off their list. I could also see them trying to start the season with Abreu in the minors as depth knowing that it'll be inevitable someone will get injured and he'll be up soon thereafter. Nitpicking a little bit here but I would think Duran returns more in a trade than Verdugo |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 17, 2023 10:08:26 GMT -5
I think the key question is what to do with all the left handed bats in the outfield? Duran, Abreu, Yoshida, Verdugo. Verdugo is likely the strongest trade chip, so I think that's why people are leaving him off their list. I could also see them trying to start the season with Abreu in the minors as depth knowing that it'll be inevitable someone will get injured and he'll be up soon thereafter. Isn't Duran an obviously stronger trade chip than Verdugo? One year of Verdugo at $10 million a) is quite valuable to the Red Sox, in that it fills a position of need and bridges the gap until some of these younger guys are more ready (including Anthony perhaps); b) is not going to be that valuable to another team, because how much do you really want to give up for one year of Verdugo, and in any case is only going to be valuable at all to a team that's going for it in 2024, which means you're not getting major league talent in return unless you do a complicated three-team thing.
I think the team has a pretty desperate need to improve the defense, so I'd move Yoshida to DH, keep Verdugo, and sign Duvall (maybe QO him). I don't think a trade is necessary, but if they do trade out of this group I think Duran is the one that contributes to a meaningful return.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 17, 2023 10:19:21 GMT -5
What I would do:
1st QO Duvall and I think he takes it. Then:
Plan A) Salary dump Yoshida, if there’s a willing partner. I think he very possibly could get better and it could be selling low but if you can get off the risk I’d do it. Unlikely as I don’t think anyone will bite on his whole contract.
Plan B) Trade one of Duran or Verdugo, whichever deal looks better based on what you’re giving up.
Your outfielders are Duran or Verdugo/Duvall/Yoshida (as DH)/Refsnyder/Rafaela. Abreu starts in AAA and is up once whoever gets hurt. In a vacuum I think I’d rather have him up than Rafaela (in the immediate term) but they need a center fielder more than a corner guy.
As for free agents that might affect this plan I think they should look at Ohtani (which if you can’t trade Yoshida puts him in left) and Kiermaier (if they don’t want to start the year with Rafaela in center).
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 17, 2023 10:25:18 GMT -5
I think the key question is what to do with all the left handed bats in the outfield? Duran, Abreu, Yoshida, Verdugo. Verdugo is likely the strongest trade chip, so I think that's why people are leaving him off their list. I could also see them trying to start the season with Abreu in the minors as depth knowing that it'll be inevitable someone will get injured and he'll be up soon thereafter. Nitpicking a little bit here but I would think Duran returns more in a trade than Verdugo True, I should have said something more like "trade candidate" as I had made the assumption that the team wouldn't be willing to forgo the additional 4 years of control with Duran as they need to build up their collection of cheap talent. |
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Post by manfred on Sept 17, 2023 10:31:40 GMT -5
Ok… say they QO Duvall and go into next season with this season’s OF. Moving Yoshida to DH loses Turner. So you take 4 of 9 positions on a not-very-good team and… don’t get better? (The defensive improvement doesn’t likely make up for losing Turner’s bat).
If we all agree that we are looking at 2025 and beyond, ok. But then the sort of paradox: if next year is sort of a wash, why keep one year of Verdugo?
Obviously this looks different if they sign like Snell and Yamamoto. At least that might dramatically improve them in another area in a game changing way.
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Post by patford on Sept 17, 2023 10:37:53 GMT -5
I don't know which direction they should take, but one thing I do not want to see is Duran in a corner. He is good enough to play center in the majors, putting him in a corner is wasting his talent. If you think Rafaela is good enough to be the everyday CF in 2024 then I would like to see Duran traded. If not then I'd like to see Rafaela traded. Just don't keep both of them please. Maybe Duran in CF and Rafaela, with his cannon, in RF. Both are still learning but the sky's the limit! Between the two I'd move Duran. His stock is probably at an all time high although the injury is a factor. |
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