Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster

I wanted to create a new thread that centers around predicting the 2024 Opening Day roster. I’m not sure if this thread already exists, and I know a lineup thread exists but I wanted a spot to dump all my thoughts on the next roster and signings and such.

To start this exercise, I took a look at the Red Sox Payroll twitter account and saw that his numbers for next year currently have us at roughly $165 million including the money to be paid out in arbitration and on contract renewals. These numbers assume that Justin Turner, Corey Kluber, and Joely Rodriguez options are not picked up or exercised in JT’s case. That would give us nearly $70 million before hitting the luxury tax, and based on what ownership has indicated in recent weeks, especially in Chaim Bloom’s departure news conference, it seems they’ll go over. I doubt they want to blow past it too far, so let’s call it $13 million over which brings us to $250 million in payroll and roughly $83 million to spend this off-season.


The Red Sox have a pretty solid foundation to build off of here, and despite the results this season, I think this team is better than its record. The main issue has been starting pitching, which has trickled down to the rest of the team, hurting the bullpen, putting the team behind early in games. Defense is also a major issue. The lineup has been hit or miss, and improving it this off-season won’t be easy as the free agent hitting market is bad.

Here’s my hopeful guess at what we could expect next season, assuming the Red Sox are willing to seriously break out the checkbook, which seems fairly likely based on Sam Kennedy’s comments and Bloom’s firing.

Lineup:

Duran - CF
Yoshida - LF
Hoskins - DH
Devers- 3B
Casas- 1B
Story - SS
Abreu - RF
Urias - 2B
Wong - C

This lineup obviously looks quite similar to this season’s with some notable exceptions. First, no Turner, he has been replaced with Hoskins. JT was probably the MVP of the season, but I think he’ll be getting a better contract from another team this off-season, and I think Hoskins could give this team some serious right handed thump it’s missing. He’s coming off a major injury, and as a right handed power bat that doesn’t play great defense, I do not expect that to be a terribly expensive contract. Last year, Jose Abreu, coming off a better season, got 40/2. I think Hoskins could be acquired for 12-15/1 with a player option as a “prove you’re healthy” contract. Hoskins can also play some 1B and LF to spell Casas or Yoshida. This will allow Yoshida to DH more often and may help preserve him throughout the season. Alex Verdugo is also gone, based mostly off the perception that the club has reached the end of its rope with the player. It has not been a great relationship, and I think the signs are pointing towards his being traded this off-season, which would clear up some extra money. He will be replaced by Abreu, hurting the defense, but not losing much on the offensive side (possibly improving it).

Bench:

Refsynder- OF/RHPH
Reyes - 2B/SS
McGuire - C
Valdez - 2B/LHPH

I think this crew can hold down the pinch hitting and substitutions.

Rotation:

Yamamoto/Snell
Gray/Nola/Montgomery
Bello
Pivetta
Sale/Crawford

This is where the vast majority of the money will be going. The Sox need to sign a number one starting pitcher and a number two in order to compete next year. There are two “Aces” on the market and they are Yamamoto and Snell. I do not know what these contracts will look like because the numbers fluctuate throughout the year, but the Red Sox are in a position to shell out a long term, highly lucrative contract to one of those two. I think Yamamoto will get around 300 million when the bidding war is done, and the Red Sox should pay that number. Behind him, they need a second pitcher and I think Gray is an excellent choice. Other than one bad year in the Bronx, he’s been good to great every year. He’s entering his age 34 season, I expect he will use the Chris Bassitt deal as the starting point and could see him get around 5/100 when all is said and done. Pitching will be expensive this off-season, and it will require some overpays. Nola scares me and will likely be far more expensive than he’s worth, but he can be penciled in for a lot of innings. Montgomery would be a good option if Gray doesn’t work out. Pivetta has shown that he can still start, and should be given the opportunity, because he can eat a ton of innings as well. Sale is a lottery ticket if he’s healthy, and if not Crawford is a serviceable 5th starter.

Bullpen:

Jansen
Martin
Winckowski
Schreiber
Bernardino
Murphy
Whitlock
Houck

I think this bullpen could be absolutely electric. Houck has not shown enough improvement in his mid to late game pitching, especially in the 3rd go around for the line-up. He should be converted into a 2-3 inning reliever who can come in in the middle innings and shut a line-up down on days the bullpen is short. Murphy has shown glimpses of being an effective pitcher, especially against lefties. Bryan Mata is out of options next year, so he will either need to replace one of these guys through injury or be traded. I expect an injury will take care of that concern by the time camp breaks in 2024.

First call-ups:

Rafaela - OF
Hamilton - IF
Mata - RHRP
Robertson - RHRP
Walter - LHRP/Starter
Drohan?/Depth acquisition - Starter

Rafaela should begin next season in AAA, where he can more easily get playing time. He should be the first call up if any position player is injured, infield or outfield.

This roster is VERY similar to this year’s but with several high caliber additions that should make a huge change. Adding two front line starters should massively improve this team’s playoff odds. Assuming the two pitchers cost a combined $55 million and Hoskins costs around $15 million, that would keep us right around the $250 million mark for next year. Defense will be a question mark, but a full year of Story, Devers regression to his mean of defense (2022, -2 OAA), Casas improving (which he has this year), should lead to far better infield defense. The outfield will have to contend with Yoshida, Duran, and Abreu, which could be interesting.