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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 15, 2024 9:41:40 GMT -5
Their choices are: 1. Hope Snell or Montgomery' prices come way, way down. But even the the length of contract could be a deterrent. .... Not saying I disagree, but it's still incredibly frustrating. Choice 1. really should just be "pay Snell or Montgomery what it takes." Particularly since there's two of them. One good free agent pitcher can end up ridiculous from a bidding war, but the cheaper of two relatively fungible quality pitchers should be something that the Sox can just acquire for nothing more than money-and-maybe-a-QO-pick. Getting one of them would fundamentally change the rotation and the team outlook. That we're instead praying for a bargain and expecting even less rankles me. Well for one thing, would it surprise anyone if both of their asking prices right now are still way too high? Word went out that Snell wants $200M yesterday. Nobody is paying him that, so what choice does any team have but to wait for that ask to drop? If the #1 option you’re critiquing works, it’s a far better option that just paying either pitcher what they want right now.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 15, 2024 9:45:12 GMT -5
There's no reason for the Sox to bid against themselves when it comes to Montgomery/Snell. I'd be very surprised if Snell comes all that close to 200M. Feel like that 5/150 offer from the yankees is in the realm of what he's going to end up getting. Maybe 6/165 or something when all is said and done. Montgomery probably gets something like that 6/165 as well if I had to guess.
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Post by 0ap0 on Jan 15, 2024 9:55:32 GMT -5
I'm certainly not advocating spending more than we have to on Snell or Montgomery, I'll just be disappointed if the Sox end up taking a pass and either of them go for something reasonable-but-not-cheap.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jan 15, 2024 10:03:42 GMT -5
I’m very open to a 5 year deal with snell with opt out after years 2 and 3
Get someone like him guaranteed for at least 2 years and not overly long term
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jan 16, 2024 22:41:38 GMT -5
I didn't read through this whole thread and can't remember if it has been brought up recently (even in other threads) - but I was just looking at the various rosters for each team - Boston and the minor league affiliates.
Boston - 1 left handed pitcher (Bernardino) Worcester - 3 (1 starter) Portland - 4 (1 starter) Greenville - 4 (1 starter) Salem - 5 (1 starter) FCL and below - 5 total
Does this seem odd? Seems a huge favoring of right handed pitchers.
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Post by fernburger7 on Jan 17, 2024 15:12:13 GMT -5
I didn't read through this whole thread and can't remember if it has been brought up recently (even in other threads) - but I was just looking at the various rosters for each team - Boston and the minor league affiliates. Boston - 1 left handed pitcher (Bernardino) Worcester - 3 (1 starter) Portland - 4 (1 starter) Greenville - 4 (1 starter) Salem - 5 (1 starter) FCL and below - 5 total Does this seem odd? Seems a huge favoring of right handed pitchers. The lack of LHP towards the upper minors/MLB team is not good and lack of any with notable ceiling in the system is concerning but I don't think we're necessarily lacking in numbers in the lower minors. 1/4 or 1/5 pitchers seems to be a reasonable breakdown given general handedness. League wide there are not many high ceiling LHP's so while it is not good that we're lacking, we also are not the only ones.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jan 17, 2024 19:24:33 GMT -5
I didn't read through this whole thread and can't remember if it has been brought up recently (even in other threads) - but I was just looking at the various rosters for each team - Boston and the minor league affiliates. Boston - 1 left handed pitcher (Bernardino) Worcester - 3 (1 starter) Portland - 4 (1 starter) Greenville - 4 (1 starter) Salem - 5 (1 starter) FCL and below - 5 total Does this seem odd? Seems a huge favoring of right handed pitchers. It’s def why I was hoping for Ryu/Moore/Lauer additions
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Post by nonothing on Jan 17, 2024 21:34:46 GMT -5
The Sox should sign Montgomery if they can do for AAV ~$25M over no more than 6 yrs. That means they could do a contract of ~$162M as $22M/yr cash (2024-2029) + $5M/yr deferred 10yrs from the year of play (i.e. 2034-2039).
For those who feel deferrals cost you more money in the future, please note the team can equivalently pay $22M in cash 2024-2029 and in each year buy him an annuity for ~$3M that would pay him $5M guaranteed in 10yrs. I would expect teams using deferred contracts are in fact funding the obligations during the playing years with the player simply receiving the value of that funding + investment appreciation at the agreed upon time. It's just prefunding a pension to pay them money after their playing career is likely over and when they can receive it in a likely better tax jurisdiction.
But this kind of contract would be announced as $162M over 6 yrs (w/ AAV for luxury tax purposes ~$25M because that's what it costs the team to fund it in current dollars, even if the player gets more dollars -- his own deferred investment income -- paid to him over time).
I also don't see Snell and Montgomery as remotely interchangeable. Snell is super high ceiling with super high injury risk. Montgomery is a much lower expected variance pitcher -- though any pitcher is likely to be hurt at some point during a 6 yr deal.
Another approach to make such a deal more palatable for the Sox (if Mongomery/Boras are willing to do it), would be to try to get an extra cheap option yr at the end of the contract in the event he misses more than 150 service days over any 2 yr period (or something like that). For a big, likely durable guy like Montgomery, that option (for say $5M if injured as above) could be of high value if he does get hurt because they would get a discounted yr on the back end, and even if he is then only worth $12M, it adds value for the Sox.
But Montgomery is the only guy of the two worth signing for the Sox to me Snell on 1-3yr deal for a true contender could make sense. We are trying rebuild while hoping for accidental contention via players outperforming expected contributions (like Arizona did this year), so Snell doesn't fit our team on that type of deal. We could become contenders in 2024-2025 if we just sign Duvall, Turner and Paxton back -- it's baseball after all -- it just isn't super likely, making Snell over short deal less logical.
But signing Montgomery, Paxton, Turner and Duvall, and trading Jansen and Yoshida -- and maybe even Martin -- for pitching prospects wouldn't be a bad approach to me. I would like to see them trade vets who won't be with them in contention window (or who just don't fit team = Yoshida) for value.
Just my thinking.
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Post by brendan98 on Jan 18, 2024 12:14:20 GMT -5
I am already more high on how this offseason has gone than most on here, but feel like the Sox can make this offseason a big win with 2 signings. If COTS contracts is accurate and the Sox have between $40-$45M to spend under the cap, get a deal with Montgomery done, and sign one of Soler, Hoskins or Turner and I think the Sox will compete for a playoff spot.
I already like the potential for this Red Sox offense, with all of the LH hitters in the lineup they are going to be very good against RHP. I would however, feel much better with another impactful RHH in case Grissom takes some more time getting some traction in the MLB and/or Story is closer to the Boston Red Sox version of Trevor Story than the Colorado Rockies version and/or O'Neill doesn't have the bounceback season we are all hoping for or at least doesn't crush LHP and/or Refsnyder becomes more human vs LHP. If Cora has the ability against a LH starter to bat, a .400 OBP vs LHP Refsnyder leadoff, with Grissom, Story, O'Neill and one of (Turner Soler or Hoskins) along with Devers and Casas, than I think the lineup would be tough on LHP too. With or without another RH bat Cora should play the lefty/righty matchups a lot more this year.
Pitching wise, the rotation needs another horse and a lefty would be ideal...Montgomery makes so much sense. A rotation with Pivetta/Giolito/Montgomery/Bello/Crawford is dependable and though their may not be an ace, I'd argue that all 5 guys could go out on any given night and give you an ace performance. The bullpen has really good depth, and if Martin and Jansen pitch like they did last year and Whitlock and Schreiber bounce back, could be the strength of the team.
Breslow or the front office (whoever you believe is running the show)make these 2 moves, and I think the Sox could potentially have a top 5 offense in baseball, a top 10 rotation, and a top 5 bullpen.
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Post by nonothing on Jan 19, 2024 0:33:44 GMT -5
If they keep Jansen and Martin, I agree with your thoughts, except I think more like top 10 offense, top 15 rotation and top 10 bullpen, but that would likely put them in contention.
I think it seems they want to graduate Teel, Anthony, Mayer to be in the bigs by end of 2024/early 2025, which is still a rush, so any could be delayed from that. Given that, I would trade vets on expiring contracts to add pitching value so they have more to compete with 2025 forward.
I think trading Yoshida makes sense because he can't field and doesn't fit our roster. Trading Jansen, we could still end up fine. Trading Martin in addition to Jansen would probably be enough to take us out of contention due to lack of depth in the bullpen, but I would do it for the right players in return. If any of those guys get hurt or just leave without return value, it will then really be like the Bloom years, where he failed to get value out of players he was losing. If trading older guys away costs us a year of playoffs, but gets us higher picks in the draft for one more year, I am OK with it and would consider it the smart thing to do to build a brighter future.
But I agree generally the Sox are not likely as bad as people think if they add Montgomery (and I also prefer Paxton for depth), plus a RH bat (or two if they can trade Yoshida).
And I certainly would not criticize the job Breslow is doing at this point setting the Sox up for 2024 and beyond-- except he should ideally learn to at least appear more humble and less arrogant and worried about "the nerd" thing and needing to defend it with touting his playing career. He should just settle down and do the job with his process and some humility. It would make him more likeable. People who are confident don't need to come out so defensively. He's earned the right to just do the job, so let's all just let him do it. I expect he will likely be good at it. His decisiveness sets him apart from Bloom, and that is a good thing -- to be decisive as a leader. I am excited to see the build continue.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 20, 2024 15:59:52 GMT -5
Not sure how much quotes from Werner mean, but he said recently that he's "looking forward to Wilyer Abreu having 400 at-bats." Seemingly confirmation they are counting on him to be a starter.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 20, 2024 16:04:47 GMT -5
Not sure how much quotes from Werner mean, but he said recently that he's "looking forward to Wilyer Abreu having 400 at-bats." Seemingly confirmation they are counting on him to be a starter. If that's the plan then I dont see the point in negotiating with Duvall. Yoshida, Duran, abreu with O'Neill cycling in plenty and refsnyder as 5th OF and Rafaela in AAA waiting in the wings. Sign one cheap SP and call it an offseason I guess.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 21, 2024 3:24:01 GMT -5
Not sure how much quotes from Werner mean, but he said recently that he's "looking forward to Wilyer Abreu having 400 at-bats." Seemingly confirmation they are counting on him to be a starter. If that's the plan then I dont see the point in negotiating with Duvall. Yoshida, Duran, abreu with O'Neill cycling in plenty and refsnyder as 5th OF and Rafaela in AAA waiting in the wings. Sign one cheap SP and call it an offseason I guess. Still hoping on that big RHB at DH/LF to split w Masa. I guess Duvall could fit that role if he can still pull the ball. Not sure. Surely Duvall won’t surpass his $7M in 2023 except through PA incentives. After thinking about the Bello, Giolito, Pivetta, Crawford concept am no longer interested in a cheap pitcher. Would be ecstatic at Monty at non Borasfeverdream $$.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 21, 2024 7:42:50 GMT -5
If that's the plan then I dont see the point in negotiating with Duvall. Yoshida, Duran, abreu with O'Neill cycling in plenty and refsnyder as 5th OF and Rafaela in AAA waiting in the wings. Sign one cheap SP and call it an offseason I guess. Still hoping on that big RHB at DH/LF to split w Masa. I guess Duvall could fit that role if he can still pull the ball. Not sure. Surely Duvall won’t surpass his $7M in 2023 except through PA incentives. After thinking about the Bello, Giolito, Pivetta, Crawford concept am no longer interested in a cheap pitcher. Would be ecstatic at Monty at non Borasfeverdream $$. To me SP is thinner than OF. I'd run with what they have in OF and go for Paxton or someone like that if they only have another 10-15 to spend. I could see both sides of the argument tho.
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Jan 22, 2024 23:37:42 GMT -5
I keep thinking about the lineup for this team. I usually start with
Duran Devers Story Casas O'Neill
And that's when I start looking up Jorge Soler and wondering why we haven't signed him yet. Story hitting third just is way too much uncertainty. He could hit .260 with 25 home runs, which honestly isn't great for a 3 hitter, but what if last year wasn't an aberration and he hits .235 with 15 home runs? Yuck. Gotta lengthen the lineup, and Soler is the one to do it with.
Duran - CF Devers - 3B Soler - DH Casas - 1B Story - SS Yoshida - LF O'Neill - RF Grissom - 2B Wong - C
Wouldn't mind Grissom at the top instead of Duran if he proves to be a capable on base threat.
I would give Soler 2/30 to sign right now
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 23, 2024 0:11:31 GMT -5
I keep thinking about the lineup for this team. I usually start with Duran Devers Story Casas O'Neill And that's when I start looking up Jorge Soler and wondering why we haven't signed him yet. Story hitting third just is way too much uncertainty. He could hit .260 with 25 home runs, which honestly isn't great for a 3 hitter, but what if last year wasn't an aberration and he hits .235 with 15 home runs? Yuck. Gotta lengthen the lineup, and Soler is the one to do it with. Duran - CF Devers - 3B Soler - DH Casas - 1B Story - SS Yoshida - LF O'Neill - RF Grissom - 2B Wong - C Wouldn't mind Grissom at the top instead of Duran if he proves to be a capable on base threat. I would give Soler 2/30 to sign right now Put Duran and Grissom 1-2 and the lineup gets longer especially if Soler were to be signed. Two tablesetters followed by 4 thumpers is a good way to start and then good depth in the 7-8 spot. Its doable if they want to do it.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 23, 2024 3:07:41 GMT -5
Agree on Duran, Grissom and Soler or?? Really like Casas backing Devers, Soler backing Casas, and Yoshida backing Soler and setting up Story. Not afraid of handedness with most of these studs. I.e. Duran, Grissom, Devers, Casas, Soler, Yoshida, Story, O’Neill/Abreu, McWong. Assuming questions are mostly answered and all cylinders are firing in ST, this is a long, difficult and likely deadly lineup to start the season.
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Post by ghostofjuanpena on Jan 23, 2024 18:16:11 GMT -5
I’d go right now if Duvall comes back
CF Durran SS Story 3B Devers RF Duvall 1B Casas DH Yoshida LF Abreu 2B Grissom C Wong
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Post by blizzards39 on Jan 23, 2024 22:55:50 GMT -5
I’d go right now if Duvall comes back CF Durran SS Story 3B Devers RF Duvall 1B Casas DH Yoshida LF Abreu 2B Grissom C Wong I want Devers 2 or 3. I want Casas 3 or 4 Don’t realy care how the rest plays out. Lots of options have Merritt
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jan 24, 2024 16:11:08 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Jan 24, 2024 16:19:16 GMT -5
If they signed a starter and pushed both Houck and Whitlock to the bullpen while trading Jansen, the bullpen is probably stronger overall. And they could add prospects in the bargain to whatever extent they ate Jansen's salary. It would be a nice set of moves. But they'd, you know, actually have to sign a starter.
Even if they didn't, though, I'd be fine with a Jansen trade. Eat his salary to get value back like they did with Sale. I'm not trying to tank in 2024 but he's a pretty inessential piece of the team anyway.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 24, 2024 16:22:39 GMT -5
If they signed a starter and pushed both Houck and Whitlock to the bullpen while trading Jansen, the bullpen is probably stronger overall. And they could add prospects in the bargain to whatever extent they ate Jansen's salary. It would be a nice set of moves. But they'd, you know, actually have to sign a starter.
Even if they didn't, though, I'd be fine with a Jansen trade. Eat his salary to get value back like they did with Sale. I'm not trying to tank in 2024 but he's a pretty inessential piece of the team anyway.
Or just trade Jansen and his full salary for a proverbial bag of baseballs and sign Montgomery if they are that adamant on having a lower payroll than last year. That'd still keep them lower than last year and Montgomery is probably worth 2-3 more WAR than Jansen if not more.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 24, 2024 16:26:10 GMT -5
If they signed a starter and pushed both Houck and Whitlock to the bullpen while trading Jansen, the bullpen is probably stronger overall. And they could add prospects in the bargain to whatever extent they ate Jansen's salary. It would be a nice set of moves. But they'd, you know, actually have to sign a starter.
Even if they didn't, though, I'd be fine with a Jansen trade. Eat his salary to get value back like they did with Sale. I'm not trying to tank in 2024 but he's a pretty inessential piece of the team anyway.
Or just trade Jansen and his full salary for a proverbial bag of baseballs and sign Montgomery if they are that adamant on having a lower payroll than last year. That'd still keep them lower than last year and Montgomery is probably worth 2-3 more WAR than Jansen if not more. That'd be great, but I assume it's years, not this year's salary, that has them out on Montgomery (and Snell).
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 24, 2024 16:33:45 GMT -5
Or just trade Jansen and his full salary for a proverbial bag of baseballs and sign Montgomery if they are that adamant on having a lower payroll than last year. That'd still keep them lower than last year and Montgomery is probably worth 2-3 more WAR than Jansen if not more. That'd be great, but I assume it's years, not this year's salary, that has them out on Montgomery (and Snell). True I would have to hope that if theoretically they could sign Montgomery to 30AAV to 3 years they'd do it but they don't want to muck up the future payroll which I guess I get to some degree even if I don't love it.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jan 24, 2024 16:55:27 GMT -5
If they signed a starter and pushed both Houck and Whitlock to the bullpen while trading Jansen, the bullpen is probably stronger overall. And they could add prospects in the bargain to whatever extent they ate Jansen's salary. It would be a nice set of moves. But they'd, you know, actually have to sign a starter.
Even if they didn't, though, I'd be fine with a Jansen trade. Eat his salary to get value back like they did with Sale. I'm not trying to tank in 2024 but he's a pretty inessential piece of the team anyway.
Or just trade Jansen and his full salary for a proverbial bag of baseballs and sign Montgomery if they are that adamant on having a lower payroll than last year. That'd still keep them lower than last year and Montgomery is probably worth 2-3 more WAR than Jansen if not more. I'd be nervous that they would make that move, then haggle with Montgomery on years only to have Montgomery go back to Texas.
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