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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Oct 31, 2023 23:16:25 GMT -5
I think the left field defense is a super overplayed issue. Red Sox defense was bad last year, so everyone who was bad defensively gets lumped together as garbage. In reality, Enrique Hernandez and a month of Devers forgetting how to field killed the Sox defensively. Yoshida was not good in left field, but calling him unplayable is silly. I do not care about left field defense and if Hoskins and Yoshida can platoon out there and provide good offensive production, that's excellent. No... Yoshida also killed us defensively, no "lumping" required. Infielders always get more scrutiny because their errors/misplays are often more obvious, but Yoshida was awful by every single metric – and to the eye test as well.
I say this as someone who is absolutely floored by how bad he was; I'm blown away that pretty much every report pre-signing that I saw was like "yeah, he's not an amazing fielder – but he's not going to embarrass himself". I really hope he can make some adjustments out there, because he'd have to hit like Ichiro to justify being a DH with middling-or-worse power.
Also, if you're committing Yoshida to a platoon at this point, that is throwing in the towel in a huge way. I think they will definitely give him at least one more year before even entertaining that possibility.
He wasn't even that bad, stop being so dramatic |
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Post by melvinhoggs on Oct 31, 2023 23:49:17 GMT -5
No... Yoshida also killed us defensively, no "lumping" required. Infielders always get more scrutiny because their errors/misplays are often more obvious, but Yoshida was awful by every single metric – and to the eye test as well.
I say this as someone who is absolutely floored by how bad he was; I'm blown away that pretty much every report pre-signing that I saw was like "yeah, he's not an amazing fielder – but he's not going to embarrass himself". I really hope he can make some adjustments out there, because he'd have to hit like Ichiro to justify being a DH with middling-or-worse power.
Also, if you're committing Yoshida to a platoon at this point, that is throwing in the towel in a huge way. I think they will definitely give him at least one more year before even entertaining that possibility.
He wasn't even that bad, stop being so dramatic Nothing dramatic about it, but thanks for your no-content response.
He's very bad defensively. Enough that he was a DH a good bit, and that consistently across all message boards/experts/articles/etc. (whoever you want to ask), people are wary of the Red Sox signing another defensive-liability hitter because it would force Yoshida to the outfield for a higher percentage of the time.
I don't know why you're acting like this is some pearl-clutching hot take, it's being said literally everywhere.
Edit: I'll add to that, that I haven't been a Yoshida hater at all. I've consistently argued against people who are already looking to trade/dump his contract or who want to platoon him (like in the exact comment you replied to). I want to see what he does in his second year.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 1, 2023 0:21:28 GMT -5
He wasn't even that bad, stop being so dramatic Nothing dramatic about it, but thanks for your no-content response. He's very bad defensively. Enough that he was a DH a good bit, and that consistently across all message boards/experts/articles/etc. (whoever you want to ask), people are wary of the Red Sox signing another defensive-liability hitter because it would force Yoshida to the outfield for a higher percentage of the time. I don't know why you're acting like this is some pearl-clutching hot take, it's being said literally everywhere. Edit: I'll add to that, that I haven't been a Yoshida hater at all. I've consistently argued against people who are already looking to trade/dump his contract or who want to platoon him (like in the exact comment you replied to). I want to see what he does in his second year.
Just because you're repeating 'pearl-clutching hotakes' doesn't mean you aren't making one yourself. His defensive metrics were almost exclusively bad due to their inability to accurately evaluate LF at Fenway. I wasn't able to catch every game this season, but I didn't notice any blunders (like the Manny years), or been exposed to anyone proclaiming that they saw his inability to make routine plays, or anything of the like. He has below average speed, he is inexperienced at fielding balls off the leftfield wall and he was below average at throwing out runners. But his arm-strength was actually better than advertised and he seemed to make the routine plays just fine. It's no sure thing that he's an average defender in LF next year, but Verdugo was bad in LF last year (according to the metrics) and he was very good in RF this year. The sky isn't falling and there's no need to clutch the pearls just yet. I'd rather have a player with a great throwing arm out there, but I think he'll be fine. I broke down his defensive metrics, which didn't seem horrible (when accounting for the LF Fenway bias) at all, in the Yoshida thread. Take a look if you're interested. |
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Nov 1, 2023 11:22:34 GMT -5
I can't believe how much the conversation has turned onto left field defense, as if that's going to determine where this team goes next year. If our hopes rest solely with left field defense next year, we'll have solved some MASSIVE problems with the current roster.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 1, 2023 11:35:14 GMT -5
I can't believe how much the conversation has turned onto left field defense, as if that's going to determine where this team goes next year. If our hopes rest solely with left field defense next year, we'll have solved some MASSIVE problems with the current roster.You mean the starting pitching? They should add two starting pitchers.
There, now that that problem's solved, the next order of business is how to bolster the lineup. Should they add a DH or add an outfielder and move Yoshida to DH? I guess that depends partly on what you think of his left field defense...
As far as that goes: it was bad but not as terrible as some people are saying. His worst defensive metric was OAA, and even by that he was better than Soto, Schwarber, Profar, and even Benintendi. And don't the metrics tend to underestimate Red Sox leftfielder's due to Green Monster effects? He's playable, at any rate, enough that there's not really a WAR gain to be had by moving him to DH. So if the team wanted, for instance, to add a DH who could also be a starting pitcher starting in 2025, Yoshida still has a place on the team. That scenario aside, though, an outfielder who pushed Yoshida to DH would be more useful.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 1, 2023 11:36:49 GMT -5
I can't believe how much the conversation has turned onto left field defense, as if that's going to determine where this team goes next year. If our hopes rest solely with left field defense next year, we'll have solved some MASSIVE problems with the current roster. I don't think that anyone is claiming that it's going to "determine where the team goes next year" but LF is still a position on the field. If this team wasn't historically poor defensively it was pretty close, so they absolutely need to shore up the defense. Story at SS for a full year should help but as of right now that's the only upgrade we can really count on. LF theoretically is one of the easiest positions to improve on defensively because Yoshida wasn't very good out there. You may not agree but I feel it is 100 percent within reason to question if Yoshida should play much LF next year or not (same with Hoskins which is kind of what started us down this rabbit hole). |
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Nov 1, 2023 11:39:40 GMT -5
I can't believe how much the conversation has turned onto left field defense, as if that's going to determine where this team goes next year. If our hopes rest solely with left field defense next year, we'll have solved some MASSIVE problems with the current roster.You mean the starting pitching? They should add two starting pitchers.
There, now that that problem's solved, the next order of business is how to bolster the lineup. Should they add a DH or add an outfielder and move Yoshida to DH? I guess that depends partly on what you think of his left field defense...
As far as that goes: it was bad but not as terrible as some people are saying. His worst defensive metric was OAA, and even by that he was better than Soto, Schwarber, Profar, and even Benintendi. And don't the metrics tend to underestimate Red Sox leftfielder's due to Green Monster effects? He's playable, at any rate, enough that there's not really a WAR gain to be had by moving him to DH. So if the team wanted, for instance, to add a DH who could also be a starting pitcher starting in 2025, Yoshida still has a place on the team. That scenario aside, though, an outfielder who pushed Yoshida to DH would be more useful.
This was my point. If our season hinges on Yoshida's defense, we've clearly added two good starters and bolstered a lineup that was flagging down the stretch. I think the point about metrics is true, and that was actually pointed out on Chris and Ian's latest podcast episode, as well. I think the biggest reason you'd want some left field help would be to allow Yoshida time to DH so he can get more rest, which was a constant point of conversation surrounding him during the season. We also, very clearly, need right handed thump in this lineup. This is why the Rhys Hoskins signing is one that makes sense to me. Will he be good defensively? No. Will he catch fly balls? Yes. That, plus an excellent right handed bat is really all I want out there. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 1, 2023 11:46:41 GMT -5
Shouldn’t have conflated Yoshida and Hoskins that’s on me. Hoskins is a much worse defender, and you’d play him at DH and Yoshida in left every time they’re both in the lineup. I think though there is a reasonable argument that the team is better with Yoshida DH’ing and a better defensive outfield alignment. There’s also a reasonable case Yoshida may also hit better with more DH time, and that can’t happen with Hoskins on the roster. I’d rather bring back Duvall, personally.
Another issue is that Jarren Duran is one of the worst defensive center fielders, and with Yoshida in left you’d have to keep him there, or trade him. The easiest way to upgrade the teams defense is by sliding them both down the spectrum and putting a good defensive center fielder in center.
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Nov 1, 2023 11:50:25 GMT -5
Shouldn’t have conflated Yoshida and Hoskins that’s on me. Hoskins is a much worse defender, and you’d play him at DH and Yoshida in left every time they’re both in the lineup. I think though there is a reasonable argument that the team is better with Yoshida DH’ing and a better defensive outfield alignment. There’s also a reasonable case Yoshida may also hit better with more DH time, and that can’t happen with Hoskins on the roster. I’d rather bring back Duvall, personally. Another issue is that Jarren Duran is one of the worst defensive center fielders, and with Yoshida in left you’d have to keep him there, or trade him. The easiest way to upgrade the teams defense is by sliding them both down the spectrum and putting a good defensive center fielder in center. I'd be ok with Duvall coming back, sure. I'm not okay with getting rid of Duran, our most dynamic and athletic player, purely because he was a league average defender. This lineup was weak late in the season, and unless you're adding a better defender who is also an equal or better offensive player, losing Duran seems like a major misstep. |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 1, 2023 11:51:31 GMT -5
Shouldn’t have conflated Yoshida and Hoskins that’s on me. Hoskins is a much worse defender, and you’d play him at DH and Yoshida in left every time they’re both in the lineup. I think though there is a reasonable argument that the team is better with Yoshida DH’ing and a better defensive outfield alignment. There’s also a reasonable case Yoshida may also hit better with more DH time, and that can’t happen with Hoskins on the roster. I’d rather bring back Duvall, personally. Another issue is that Jarren Duran is one of the worst defensive center fielders, and with Yoshida in left you’d have to keep him there, or trade him. The easiest way to upgrade the teams defense is by sliding them both down the spectrum and putting a good defensive center fielder in center.Yes - but now try to do this, given the available options, without making the offense worse than it was in 2023. Bonus points if you can do it without adding yet another lefty to the lineup.
This is why the 2024 lineup situation feels like squeezing a water balloon to me: you can solve any one issue but not without making some other issue worse.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 1, 2023 11:56:25 GMT -5
Shouldn’t have conflated Yoshida and Hoskins that’s on me. Hoskins is a much worse defender, and you’d play him at DH and Yoshida in left every time they’re both in the lineup. I think though there is a reasonable argument that the team is better with Yoshida DH’ing and a better defensive outfield alignment. There’s also a reasonable case Yoshida may also hit better with more DH time, and that can’t happen with Hoskins on the roster. I’d rather bring back Duvall, personally. Another issue is that Jarren Duran is one of the worst defensive center fielders, and with Yoshida in left you’d have to keep him there, or trade him. The easiest way to upgrade the teams defense is by sliding them both down the spectrum and putting a good defensive center fielder in center.This is a good thought and I don't hate it. Slide Duran to LF where if his defensive improvements he made in CF translate to LF he goes from below average CF to above average LF defensively, play Rafaela in CF where he's gold glove caliber they say and if Verdugo is around still in RF where he's good out there all of a sudden the OF defense goes from bottom of the barrel to one of the better alignments in the league. I don't know if that alignment gives them enough offense though. Bringing back a guy like Duvall who can add some punch to the lineup while also being at least an average if not better COF defender who can fill in at CF if need be could help alleviate that. I would also not be surprised if Duran ends up shipped out in a deal to acquire someone else to help bolster the roster though. As it stands the combo of Yoshida/Duran/Verdugo is kind of a round peg in a square hole type of deal. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 1, 2023 12:13:43 GMT -5
Shouldn’t have conflated Yoshida and Hoskins that’s on me. Hoskins is a much worse defender, and you’d play him at DH and Yoshida in left every time they’re both in the lineup. I think though there is a reasonable argument that the team is better with Yoshida DH’ing and a better defensive outfield alignment. There’s also a reasonable case Yoshida may also hit better with more DH time, and that can’t happen with Hoskins on the roster. I’d rather bring back Duvall, personally. Another issue is that Jarren Duran is one of the worst defensive center fielders, and with Yoshida in left you’d have to keep him there, or trade him. The easiest way to upgrade the teams defense is by sliding them both down the spectrum and putting a good defensive center fielder in center.Yes - but now try to do this, given the available options, without making the offense worse than it was in 2023. Bonus points if you can do it without adding yet another lefty to the lineup.
This is why the 2024 lineup situation feels like squeezing a water balloon to me: you can solve any one issue but not without making some other issue worse.
An unrealistic solution - sign Ohtani, Duvall and Kiermaier, trade Yoshida, Duran to left, Duvall the 4th off and rotating platoon. Eventually Rafaela moves up for centerfield time too. Not predicting this obviously. I think just signing Kiermaier and sliding those guys down would be a fine option though, sure the offense isn’t better unless guys improve internally but I’m okay with the trade off. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 1, 2023 12:17:31 GMT -5
Shouldn’t have conflated Yoshida and Hoskins that’s on me. Hoskins is a much worse defender, and you’d play him at DH and Yoshida in left every time they’re both in the lineup. I think though there is a reasonable argument that the team is better with Yoshida DH’ing and a better defensive outfield alignment. There’s also a reasonable case Yoshida may also hit better with more DH time, and that can’t happen with Hoskins on the roster. I’d rather bring back Duvall, personally. Another issue is that Jarren Duran is one of the worst defensive center fielders, and with Yoshida in left you’d have to keep him there, or trade him. The easiest way to upgrade the teams defense is by sliding them both down the spectrum and putting a good defensive center fielder in center. I'd be ok with Duvall coming back, sure. I'm not okay with getting rid of Duran, our most dynamic and athletic player, purely because he was a league average defender. This lineup was weak late in the season, and unless you're adding a better defender who is also an equal or better offensive player, losing Duran seems like a major misstep. I didn’t say they should lose Duran, but him being in centerfield unless he takes another big defensive step is a problem and I hope they don’t go with that as the plan unless it’s because they signed Ohtani and they don’t really have a choice. |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 1, 2023 13:25:22 GMT -5
Yes - but now try to do this, given the available options, without making the offense worse than it was in 2023. Bonus points if you can do it without adding yet another lefty to the lineup.
This is why the 2024 lineup situation feels like squeezing a water balloon to me: you can solve any one issue but not without making some other issue worse.
An unrealistic solution - sign Ohtani, Duvall and Kiermaier, trade Yoshida, Duran to left, Duvall the 4th off and rotating platoon. Eventually Rafaela moves up for centerfield time too. Not predicting this obviously. I think just signing Kiermaier and sliding those guys down would be a fine option though, sure the offense isn’t better unless guys improve internally but I’m okay with the trade off.You'd be taking a team that had a 99 wRC+ last season, subtracting Turner (114 wRC+) and Duvall (116 wRC+) and adding Kiermaier (career 98 wRC+). And the complete list of righty bats would be: Story, Urias, Wong, Refsnyder, Reyes. That looks like a potential disaster to me. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 1, 2023 13:35:30 GMT -5
An unrealistic solution - sign Ohtani, Duvall and Kiermaier, trade Yoshida, Duran to left, Duvall the 4th off and rotating platoon. Eventually Rafaela moves up for centerfield time too. Not predicting this obviously. I think just signing Kiermaier and sliding those guys down would be a fine option though, sure the offense isn’t better unless guys improve internally but I’m okay with the trade off.You'd be taking a team that had a 99 wRC+ last season, subtracting Turner (114 wRC+) and Duvall (116 wRC+) and adding Kiermaier (career 98 wRC+). And the complete list of righty bats would be: Story, Urias, Wong, Refsnyder, Reyes. That looks like a potential disaster to me. Keep Duvall too in that scenario. He'll get plenty of playing time. The defensive improvement is pretty massive here. I would rather this than the alternative of keeping Duran in center and signing a Hoskins or Teoscar or whatever, I think it's a bigger improvement and there's enough offensive upside to hope on. If they sign Ohtani I'm on board with going for an offense lift but otherwise I'd prefer trying to improve the position player group on defense. Or make a trade but that's hard to identify. add: if they really want to take a big swing in a trade I wonder what prying Luis Robert from Chicago looks like, it would be a ton, but he fits the team pretty beautifully. |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 1, 2023 14:57:27 GMT -5
You'd be taking a team that had a 99 wRC+ last season, subtracting Turner (114 wRC+) and Duvall (116 wRC+) and adding Kiermaier (career 98 wRC+). And the complete list of righty bats would be: Story, Urias, Wong, Refsnyder, Reyes. That looks like a potential disaster to me. Keep Duvall too in that scenario. He'll get plenty of playing time. The defensive improvement is pretty massive here. I would rather this than the alternative of keeping Duran in center and signing a Hoskins or Teoscar or whatever, I think it's a bigger improvement and there's enough offensive upside to hope on. If they sign Ohtani I'm on board with going for an offense lift but otherwise I'd prefer trying to improve the position player group on defense. Or make a trade but that's hard to identify. add: if they really want to take a big swing in a trade I wonder what prying Luis Robert from Chicago looks like, it would be a ton, but he fits the team pretty beautifully. Oh okay. Keeping Duvall makes a big difference I think.
I''ve had that thought too about Robert. I wonder how much you'd have to add on top of Rafaela (more than a little)...
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Post by asm19 on Nov 1, 2023 18:55:50 GMT -5
Alas, this is likely a fever dream. (And I believe Lou is speaking hypothetically here.)
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Post by keninten on Nov 1, 2023 21:54:49 GMT -5
Alas, this is likely a fever dream. (And I believe Lou is speaking hypothetically here.) If SD is really looking to shed payroll. There`s a few players to pick from. I have know idea about their farm and what they would need or have. Darvish has 5 years @ $18 per year. Tatis has 11 more years @ $25 mil per year. Soto 1 year @ $32 mil? I don`t think anyone would want Xander, Machado, or Cronenworth with their contracts. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 1, 2023 23:39:59 GMT -5
Alas, this is likely a fever dream. (And I believe Lou is speaking hypothetically here.) If SD is really looking to shed payroll. There`s a few players to pick from. I have know idea about their farm and what they would need or have. Darvish has 5 years @ $18 per year. Tatis has 11 more years @ $25 mil per year. Soto 1 year @ $32 mil? I don`t think anyone would want Xander, Machado, or Cronenworth with their contracts. They'd have to be subsidized. I was stunned years back when Vernon Wells' contract was subsidized and dealt. I was surprised and relieved the Sox didnt have to live out the rest of Carl Crawford's deal. If the Padres pay a certain percentage of all those players they could dump them and save a big combined chunk of money. |
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Post by keninten on Nov 2, 2023 0:32:17 GMT -5
I wouldn`t want any of the last three I mentioned even if they were subsidized. Would Darvish, Tatis, or Soto cost that much if they take on the whole contract? Verdugo, Yorke, and one of Kutter, Houck or even Whitlock get one?
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 2, 2023 3:11:08 GMT -5
Yu Darvish was hurt to end the year, showed signs of decline, is 37 and signed for 5 more years. Count me out on wanting him at all.
Really the only ones I'd want from the highly paid group is Soto or tatis and neither would come cheaply. I do think with this news the chances Soto is dealt increased quite a bit though.
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Post by pappyman99 on Nov 2, 2023 9:28:00 GMT -5
I mean going after Tatis probably means bringing someone like Cronenworth on as well
Who says No to Yoshida, Bleis, Duran, Houck, and Yorke for Tatis and Cronenworth?
We get a much needed right handed power bat who is young and very impactful
Padres get a pretty good package and a whole bunch of long term salary relief.
The 2025 lineup would have Uber potential
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 2, 2023 9:29:58 GMT -5
I mean going after Tatis probably means bringing someone like Cronenworth on as well Who says No to Yoshida, Bleis, Duran, Houck, and Yorke for Tatis and Cronenworth? We get a much needed right handed power bat who is young and very impactful Padres get a pretty good package and a whole bunch of long term salary relief. The 2025 lineup would have Uber potential The Padres say no to that pretty easily IMO. |
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 2, 2023 9:42:42 GMT -5
I mean going after Tatis probably means bringing someone like Cronenworth on as well Who says No to Yoshida, Bleis, Duran, Houck, and Yorke for Tatis and Cronenworth? We get a much needed right handed power bat who is young and very impactful Padres get a pretty good package and a whole bunch of long term salary relief. The 2025 lineup would have Uber potential The Padres say no to that pretty easily IMO. What salary relief are they even getting? Tatis makes $11 in 24 and only $20 in 25. Yoshida, Duran, Houck Will make more than that in salary and arb then him and Crone |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 2, 2023 9:44:31 GMT -5
I mean going after Tatis probably means bringing someone like Cronenworth on as well Who says No to Yoshida, Bleis, Duran, Houck, and Yorke for Tatis and Cronenworth? We get a much needed right handed power bat who is young and very impactful Padres get a pretty good package and a whole bunch of long term salary relief. The 2025 lineup would have Uber potential The Padres say no to that pretty easily IMO. The trade simulator actually likes that for the Padres: they get a value score of 95.4 to the Red Sox' 83.9.
It helps that Cronenworth has pretty significant negative value.
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