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Post by incandenza on Oct 2, 2023 10:45:18 GMT -5
Where on earth did this idea come from? There was that one quote where he said something to the effect of "I'm a starter and that's how I intend to help the team win," which could be interpreted very ungenerously to imply he wouldn't accept a move to the bullpen, but nothing in his career on the team has made him seem like a prima donna.
Anyway, I do wonder if something about going to the bullpen jostled something loose for him. For a few years it's seemed like he had the potential for a breakout in him and it just hadn't quite arrived. But he was damn impressive as a starter down the stretch. Or maybe it's fool's gold... I wouldn't be too surprised either way. But I think it's worth finding out.
There were definitely some breadcrumbs of "will this guy be able to handle this" 1. There were demotion issues with the Phillies several few times where he "did not embrace the bullpen role" and did not always pitch "with intensity in every relief assignment"- theathletic.com/1198764/2019/09/10/the-disconnect-nick-pivettas-rocky-season-and-the-questions-the-phillies-must-answer/ Philly demoted him to the pen in two straight years and he didn't adjust - partly why they traded him to us! 2. There was him going out of his way to confront Sean McAdam during Spring Training about being named by McAdam as a possible odd man out of the rotation on MLB Network ("so you think I'm in the bullpen, huh?") 3. Pivetta getting feisty with Chris Cotillo when it looked like he was about to (and shortly was) demoted - In hindsight perhaps we can attribute some of that to Pivetta being a bit of a lunatic (in a good way), but based on his past in Philly there was definitely some precedent to be concerned. That said - very glad it worked out!!! Okay, fair enough. For my part I think there's such a fine line between "fiery competitor, just wants to be the best" and "petulant egomaniac," and such a degree of arbitrariness in which media narrative takes root, that I just tend to discount all this stuff.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 2, 2023 10:47:03 GMT -5
I would like to say that Brayan Bello did not have a fantastic season, does not rate great on the pitch modeling statistics, and if I ran the team I would be looking to cash in on the trade market if there's a team in love with him. Well now that's an interesting take. The thing they need is pitching, though, so what do you trade him for... maybe a more-established/lower-ceiling pitcher with fewer years of control?
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Post by chaimtime on Oct 2, 2023 10:49:05 GMT -5
I'm of the mind that both of these claims are true: (1) The Sox need to acquire two front-of-the-rotation arms (my preference would be Yamamoto & Burnes, but your mileage may vary); (2) Both Crawford and Pivetta deserve spots in the rotation For me, the guy who needs to be moved — internally or externally — is Sale. Kutter's season tells you he's at minimum a #4 with upside... some of those underlying numbers from this year have been pretty eye-popping. Pivetta looks as though he has found something special, and has always been a guy (too often, *the* guy) you can count on to eat innings. Of the three, it's Sale, sadly, who I can depend on the least — not only to stay healthy, but to give me five adequate innings when he is. He's making what, $26 million in his final year? I'd see if another team was willing to take him on for $13, eat the rest, and reinvest that money somewhere else. The problem is a healthy Chris Sale is still the best pitcher on the team as it stands, so it’s a weird spot to be in. I don’t think a full bullpen workload will keep him any healthier, given the intensity of each outing and the limited rest. Since he’s on the last year of goods deal anyway, might as well pencil him in until you can’t. Pivetta is probably best utilized as a versatile bullpen ace who can go short or long, but they should keep him stretched out enough to be the first man up when a rotation spot opens. I think his stuff is more likely to play up in a bullpen role than Crawford’s, so I think he’s a better fit in that role. If he can hop between the rotation and the bullpen like he did this year then I think he’s going to be a very valuable piece for a long time.
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Post by chaimtime on Oct 2, 2023 10:58:16 GMT -5
I would like to say that Brayan Bello did not have a fantastic season, does not rate great on the pitch modeling statistics, and if I ran the team I would be looking to cash in on the trade market if there's a team in love with him. I’m pretty sure Eno Sarris (or someone similar) has touched on some of the pitch modeling stuff a bit, his specific pitch mix is hard for the models to handle because there’s not a ton of separation between his sinker (his primary fastball they compare to) and his changeup, so his actually-excellent change grades as poor. He needs to add a good breaking ball before he’s anything more than a decent mid-rotation piece, but he’s almost certainly not a number 1 unless he can work on the 4-seamer shape.
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Post by asm19 on Oct 2, 2023 10:58:22 GMT -5
I would like to say that Brayan Bello did not have a fantastic season, does not rate great on the pitch modeling statistics, and if I ran the team I would be looking to cash in on the trade market if there's a team in love with him. That's a move with cajones, I'll give you that haha MLBTradeValues isn't the end-all be-all, but in their model, the only players that have who have a higher estimated trade value than Bello who have 3 or less years of control are: Freddy Peralta (3 years) Jesus Luzardo (3 years) Bo Bichette (2 years) Randy Arozerna (3 years) Kyle Tucker (2 years) JP Crawford (3 years) Yandy Diaz (3 years) Will Smith - LAD (2 years) Zac Gallen (2 years) Frambler Valdez (2 years) Someone like Luis Robert has 4 years left on an incredibly team friendly deal - maaaaybe you could talk me into a Bello trade there. But I'm not sure any of the guys like those above either make sense or would even be available. www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 2, 2023 11:11:12 GMT -5
The team needs to add to the starting rotation and yet some folks want to trade arguably the two best pieces of the rotation in Bello and Sale? While I generally do prescribe to the nobody is untouchable mindset, especially as the roster is currently constructed but I have a hard time seeing many avenues where trading Sale and or Bello helps the 2024 roster.
Sale has one year left, was honestly pretty decent this year and ended the season healthy as far as I know anyway. He also has a relatively team friendly 20M option for 2025 if he once again makes it through next season healthy I could see that being picked up pretty easily. Bello faded late in the year so his overall #s are a bit disappointing but he's making peanuts and isn't arb eligible until 2027. I've been clamoring for the Sox to produce some home grown starting pitching and I'm not really ready to go ahead and ship Bello out right now.
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Post by terriblehondo on Oct 2, 2023 11:20:09 GMT -5
I would like to say that Brayan Bello did not have a fantastic season, does not rate great on the pitch modeling statistics, and if I ran the team I would be looking to cash in on the trade market if there's a team in love with him. So on a team that needs starting pitching you want to take and trade the guy who pitched the most innings on the team, low cost and years of control. Well I for one am glad you are not running the team.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 2, 2023 11:22:57 GMT -5
I would like to say that Brayan Bello did not have a fantastic season, does not rate great on the pitch modeling statistics, and if I ran the team I would be looking to cash in on the trade market if there's a team in love with him. Well now that's an interesting take. The thing they need is pitching, though, so what do you trade him for... maybe a more-established/lower-ceiling pitcher with fewer years of control? Well, they've got four guys that need to be in an opening day rotation somewhere, two guys that everyone wants in the pen that would be excellent 6/7 starters, and everyone wants to sign two free agents. That would leave one guy as trade bait.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 2, 2023 11:26:19 GMT -5
I would like to say that Brayan Bello did not have a fantastic season, does not rate great on the pitch modeling statistics, and if I ran the team I would be looking to cash in on the trade market if there's a team in love with him. It's also reasonably possible that he improves as young starters can tend to do. I'm sure he'd be the ask if the Brewers decided to trade Burnes Generally I'd be not eager to trade a young pitcher who was durable but had his numbers tail off at the end of the season because he probably got tired. I think with more experience and getting more used to pitching more innings his numbers would improve which is why I dont necessarily take the numbers he had altogether as 100% gospel when th9nk8ng about him going forward.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 2, 2023 11:29:52 GMT -5
I would like to say that Brayan Bello did not have a fantastic season, does not rate great on the pitch modeling statistics, and if I ran the team I would be looking to cash in on the trade market if there's a team in love with him. It's also reasonably possible that he improves as young starters can tend to do. I'm sure he'd be the ask if the Brewers decided to trade Burnes Probably not wrong, however I just assume the Sox keep Bello and the 5 years of cheap control left vs trading him for one year of control on Burnes.
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Post by Smittyw on Oct 2, 2023 11:35:00 GMT -5
1 NCIS 2 NCIS 3 BELLO 4 SALE 5 CRAWFORD Our offseason hinges on the long-running CBS procedural.
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Post by trapperdan on Oct 2, 2023 11:39:48 GMT -5
Are most folks here of the opinion that the Sox are better positioned for success on any given night when Chris Sale is starting versus when Kutter Crawford is starting? That has not been my experience, to say the least, but it seems like that may be a minority opinion.
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Post by asm19 on Oct 2, 2023 11:41:23 GMT -5
It's also reasonably possible that he improves as young starters can tend to do. I'm sure he'd be the ask if the Brewers decided to trade Burnes Probably not wrong, however I just assume the Sox keep Bello and the 5 years of cheap control left vs trading him for one year of control on Burnes. I think that’s the 1st main issue with most trades you might even hypothetically consider for Bello (which let’s be clear, is very unlikely haha) - there’s still so much talent and team control there that whoever they got back would need to be huge ransom to he worth it. The 2nd issue is I’m not sure who is giving you a huge ransom for him… because the folks who hold him in the highest esteem are the Red Sox fans who compare him to Pedro every other day. Like if Tyler Milliken becomes GM of the Padres tomorrow, I’m sure you can get Juan Soto and Joe Musgrove for Bello after a 20 minute conversation. I’m not sure how many GM’s are scrolling Red Sox twitter watching Bello hype videos…
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Post by patford on Oct 2, 2023 11:47:59 GMT -5
Out of the pitchers on the list the one I would most like to see as part of the opening day 2024 rotation would be Bryan Mata. Why? Because that would only happen if he somehow harnessed his problems with control and command and made unbelievable strides over the space of a few months.
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Post by pappyman99 on Oct 2, 2023 11:53:26 GMT -5
The Pivetta argument is weak in my opinion. In 2023 as a reliever he had 2 innings pitched the 3rd time through the order, and 16.2 Innings pitched the 2nd time through the order.
As a starter he was putrid his 2nd and 3rd time through the order
So when looking at his stats keep in mind he was regularly coming in to face the 5-9 hitters twice and 1-4, most regularly just once. That is not how reliable starters would operate, and that also doesn't account for that we already know he is a mediocre to bad starter from 2019-2023. Not sure why we would ignore is large sample size history of results at this point.
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Post by patford on Oct 2, 2023 11:55:49 GMT -5
I would like to say that Brayan Bello did not have a fantastic season, does not rate great on the pitch modeling statistics, and if I ran the team I would be looking to cash in on the trade market if there's a team in love with him. I'm not concerned about Bello. Just a guess but it seems like he hit a wall probably because he'd never thrown so many innings before.
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Post by chaimtime on Oct 2, 2023 11:58:04 GMT -5
Probably not wrong, however I just assume the Sox keep Bello and the 5 years of cheap control left vs trading him for one year of control on Burnes. I think that’s the 1st main issue with most trades you might even hypothetically consider for Bello (which let’s be clear, is very unlikely haha) - there’s still so much talent and team control there that whoever they got back would need to be huge ransom to he worth it. The 2nd issue is I’m not sure who is giving you a huge ransom for him… because the folks who hold him in the highest esteem are the Red Sox fans who compare him to Pedro every other day. Like if Tyler Milliken becomes GM of the Padres tomorrow, I’m sure you can get Juan Soto and Joe Musgrove for Bello after a 20 minute conversation. I’m not sure how many GM’s are scrolling Red Sox twitter watching Bello hype videos… Bello is definitely overrated by the fan base, he isn’t particularly close to being the next Pedro as it stands. But I would be pretty disappointed if the return for him was a year of Corbin Burnes or a year of Juan Soto plus the right to pay Joe Musgrove through his thirties. A controllable number-3 with upside is worth a lot more than that.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 2, 2023 12:16:15 GMT -5
According to Baseballtradevalue, Juan Soto is not even getting you half-way there to Bello. I would like to explore the king's ransoms, is all.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 2, 2023 12:49:49 GMT -5
According to Baseballtradevalue, Juan Soto is not even getting you half-way there to Bello. I would like to explore the king's ransoms, is all.Can't say I disagree with the thought process, to me no player should be untouchable. If Bello can be used to get someone like a George Kirby then by all means go for it but to me it would have to be an established front of the rotation starter with 3+ years of control, which I don't see happening. But as you say if they can truly get a king's ransom for Bello then it should be explored.
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Post by patford on Oct 2, 2023 13:42:23 GMT -5
According to Baseballtradevalue, Juan Soto is not even getting you half-way there to Bello. I would like to explore the king's ransoms, is all.Can't say I disagree with the thought process, to me no player should be untouchable. If Bello can be used to get someone like a George Kirby then by all means go for it but to me it would have to be an established front of the rotation starter with 3+ years of control, which I don't see happening. But as you say if they can truly get a king's ransom for Bello then it should be explored. One of the most consistent things I see on this forum is the people who are most down on a particular player (never matters who it is) believe that the GMs of other teams place tremendous value on those players.
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Post by bannedfromsosh on Oct 2, 2023 16:06:09 GMT -5
Now that it has been irrefutably proven that Trevor Bauer was viciously targeted and extorted by his accuser, I hope we will be bidding on his services.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 2, 2023 16:18:52 GMT -5
Putting aside Burnes another SP that could be a fit in Milwaukee is Brandon Woodruff. 1 year left getting expensive. Has been injured this year and is now out with a shoulder injury in the playoffs.
They'd need to feel comfortable with his medicals and I wouldn't want to give up a ton for him but he'd probably be cheaper than burnes. Sign one of the better pitchers and deal for Woodruff.
Yamamoto/Bello/Woodruff/sale/Crawford or pivetta. Could be a good rotation if they get a little injury luck. Keeps plenty of money available to upgrade elsewhere/Sign extensions.
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Post by manfred on Oct 2, 2023 16:27:50 GMT -5
Now that it has been irrefutably proven that Trevor Bauer was viciously targeted and extorted by his accuser, I hope we will be bidding on his services. I have no [SFW] words.
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Post by bannedfromsosh on Oct 2, 2023 16:31:20 GMT -5
Now that it has been irrefutably proven that Trevor Bauer was viciously targeted and extorted by his accuser, I hope we will be bidding on his services. I have no [SFW] words. I’ll just assume you haven’t seen the newly released texts and footage. She’s an absolute monster for what she did. Bauer needs to be apologized to, and back in an MLB uniform next year.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Oct 2, 2023 17:11:13 GMT -5
I’ll just assume you haven’t seen the newly released texts and footage. She’s an absolute monster for what she did. Bauer needs to be apologized to, and back in an MLB uniform next year. Surely that's the only woman with allegations with him, right?
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