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Roster decisions: Luis Urias, Pablo Reyes
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 1, 2023 12:22:25 GMT -5
Luis Urias: Two years of control left. Prob looking at an arbitrary salary of around $5 million for next year. Ended up hitting .225/.361/.337 for us. Non-tender deadline is November 17. For those wondering, Bradley Blalock was mediocre down the stretch for the Brewers and is looking like an annoying borderline Rule 5 decision.
Pablo Reyes: 30 years old, control his rights until he's an old man. Zero options remaining. Hit .289/.333/.380 for us. Deadline for protecting Rule 5 eligible players is sometime in November, which would be the first time they might clear him from the roster.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Oct 1, 2023 13:37:00 GMT -5
In a vacuum I personally would prefer Urias, but if they are spending big I don't think the gap is necessarily big enough to justify the $ difference. I would be fine settling for Reyes in the event of significant financial investment elsewhere. My 2 cents.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 1, 2023 13:46:08 GMT -5
Nick Yorke: 2023 Portland Sea Dogs Player of the Year. Will begin 2024 as Worcester's starting 2B. We should have a pretty good idea of how likely he is to stay at 2B full-time in MLB by around Memorial Day. I would expect to see him get a lot of playing time next to Story in spring training. Of course, the larger question will be how he adjusts at the plate to AAA pitching (for the love of god, he'll still be 21 on MLB Opening Day -- in his professional career he has had a grand total of 3 PAs vs pitchers who were younger than him).
The battle between Urias and Reyes is for placeholder.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 1, 2023 13:53:42 GMT -5
I don't understand why it would be remotely controversial that they should keep Urias. There are no better FA options. He can back up 3B with Turner gone, and in a worst-case scenario he's a decent platoon partner for Valdez. And they're probably going over the LTT anyway. The only question I might have is if his injury troubles might linger in a Mondesian fashion; it's a little worrisome that after missing so much time he's ending the season on the IL.
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Post by rhswanzey on Oct 1, 2023 14:22:08 GMT -5
I don't understand why it would be remotely controversial that they should keep Urias. There are no better FA options. He can back up 3B with Turner gone, and in a worst-case scenario he's a decent platoon partner for Valdez. And they're probably going over the LTT anyway. The only question I might have is if his injury troubles might linger in a Mondesian fashion; it's a little worrisome that after missing so much time he's ending the season on the IL. If the team wants to improve the defense, second base is one of the cleanest opportunities to do that. There might be some interesting trade targets on the market. One that comes to mind is Jake Cronenworth, an excellent defender who was pushed to first base and had a down season. He was extended prior to the 2023 season; San Diego is rumored to be interested in cutting payroll. I’m not going to throw a tantrum if they tender Urias but I don’t think it’s a slam dunk that he’s a decent regular next year. |
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Oct 1, 2023 15:10:49 GMT -5
Nick Yorke: 2023 Portland Sea Dogs Player of the Year. Will begin 2024 as Worcester's starting 2B. We should have a pretty good idea of how likely he is to stay at 2B full-time in MLB by around Memorial Day. I would expect to see him get a lot of playing time next to Story in spring training. Of course, the larger question will be how he adjusts at the plate to AAA pitching (for the love of god, he'll still be 21 on MLB Opening Day -- in his professional career he has had a grand total of 3 PAs vs pitchers who were younger than him). The battle between Urias and Reyes is for placeholder. Agree fully. Part of the new FO guys being bold will involve promoting the top prospects without over analyzing the decision. Yorke may not be an all star or MVP, but he will be a decent MLB player. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Oct 1, 2023 15:18:50 GMT -5
I'm pretty okay with keeping both Urias and Reyes to start the year. Eventually maybe Valdez earns more PT at 2B, he can fit as a platoon partner even to start the year if his defense is acceptable. You can always walk away from guys of this caliber later, but I don't see obvious better options to begin the season.
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Post by kwodes on Oct 1, 2023 19:07:18 GMT -5
Nick Yorke: 2023 Portland Sea Dogs Player of the Year. Will begin 2024 as Worcester's starting 2B. We should have a pretty good idea of how likely he is to stay at 2B full-time in MLB by around Memorial Day. I would expect to see him get a lot of playing time next to Story in spring training. Of course, the larger question will be how he adjusts at the plate to AAA pitching (for the love of god, he'll still be 21 on MLB Opening Day -- in his professional career he has had a grand total of 3 PAs vs pitchers who were younger than him). The battle between Urias and Reyes is for placeholder. Agree fully. Part of the new FO guys being bold will involve promoting the top prospects without over analyzing the decision. Yorke may not be an all star or MVP, but he will be a decent MLB player. I feel like urias is a pretty easy non-tender. Why keep him for maybe 5 mill when we have Reyes who makes league minimum and is fine. Plus allows a spot for Yorke to come up. Maybe trade him if you can, but I doubt there's much of a market. |
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Post by kingstephanos on Oct 1, 2023 19:26:37 GMT -5
I understand we all have preferences yada yada, but the penciling in of Yorke at 2B seems like the 99th percentile outcome.
His flaws are many (stated infinitum here and on other prospect blogs) as he would ultimately project as a so-so defender - of which we already have at 3B.
Urias/Reyes appear to be placeholders for Story (and his eventual move back to 2B) not Yorke.
Again, moving on from flawed prospects is a better strategy than allowing them to "die on the vine".
For every Jarren Duran success story, we have years of evidence that most flawed prospects will lose their value and become a wasted asset for the team (Bobby Dalbec, Gilberto Jimenez, Henry Owens...)
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Oct 1, 2023 19:39:04 GMT -5
"most ... Henry Owens."
If it's "most," why did you have to go back a hundred years?
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 1, 2023 19:41:00 GMT -5
I understand we all have preferences yada yada, but the penciling in of Yorke at 2B seems like the 99th percentile outcome. His flaws are many (stated infinitum here and on other prospect blogs) as he would ultimately project as a so-so defender - of which we already have at 3B. Urias/Reyes appear to be placeholders for Story (and his eventual move back to 2B) not Yorke. Again, moving on from flawed prospects is a better strategy than allowing them to "die on the vine". For every Jarren Duran success story, we have years of evidence that most flawed prospects will lose their value and become a wasted asset for the team (Bobby Dalbec, Gilberto Jimenez, Henry Owens...) No kidding….95%!of professional baseball players never play even 1 game in the MLB. If you think you should only sign free agents and trade for other teams unwanted, then welcome to the Yankees 2010 -2023… |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 1, 2023 19:41:52 GMT -5
There's no clear-cut choice for 2B and UTIL for the 2024 team (should be many for 2025) but Reyes hasn't played consistently and Urias clearly hasn't warranted the ~$5mil. Would consider a far lower contract than arb with incentives.
Reyes had a nice season as a part-time-player but wasn't able to carve out a consistent role despite plenty of opportunity.
Offer Reyes, Arroyo and Wong MILB contracts with end of April opt-outs, guessing that ~2 accept. Offer Mondesi a guaranteed affordable MLB deal (assuming the medicals are clean) with a team-option on a 2nd year. His talent/potential far surpasses the others.
If Valdez can improve his defense he could platoon at 2B. Possible Rafaela ends up in the IF in 2024.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 1, 2023 19:42:50 GMT -5
That's pretty harsh. Yorke had a successful season given his age. The odds are pretty solid that he can be a 2+ WAR player in his peak seasons, and I'd give him maybe a one in four chance of winning the every day job by the last third of next season.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 1, 2023 19:59:53 GMT -5
That's pretty harsh. Yorke had a successful season given his age. The odds are pretty solid that he can be a 2+ WAR player in his peak seasons, and I'd give him maybe a one in four chance of winning the every day job by the last third of next season. At no point has Valdez projected to have a better bat or a better glove than Yorke, and Valdez looks to me like he could be a major leaguer, so... |
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Oct 1, 2023 20:09:36 GMT -5
That's pretty harsh. Yorke had a successful season given his age. The odds are pretty solid that he can be a 2+ WAR player in his peak seasons, and I'd give him maybe a one in four chance of winning the every day job by the last third of next season. At no point has Valdez projected to have a better bat or a better glove than Yorke, and Valdez looks to me like he could be a major leaguer, so... Excellent point ! |
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Post by kingstephanos on Oct 1, 2023 21:46:11 GMT -5
"most ... Henry Owens." If it's "most," why did you have to go back a hundred years? I went back that far because Owens, like Dalbec, epitomizes the flawed prospect archetype that I feel Yorke falls into - it's not a catch-all term for any and every minor league player. If I'm right, I will certainly come back to gloat 🤷🏾♂️ |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 1, 2023 21:53:32 GMT -5
I kind of like a Yorke/Valdez platoon in the second half, assuming Yorke continues his ascent apace. It would give Yorke a lot of time to work with the big league coaching staff and all the tools at their disposal, both for offense ans defense. If you feel like he isn't playing enough, you can always send him back down. [N.B. I would contend that the pot of coffee that Abreu, Rafaela, and Valdez have shared this year has contributed to their development and that next season they will be much better prepared to contribute when given the opportunity.]
What I'm getting at is that I think the Urias/Reyes question is kind of beside the point. I don't think either of them are very relevant to the club's plans past around the 2024 trade deadline. For the first half, I say you keep whichever one you can't package into a trade this winter and platoon him with Valdez until Yorke is ready. (The only problem with that is that Yorke has had reverse splits every year thus far...)
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Post by rhswanzey on Oct 1, 2023 22:29:49 GMT -5
I think it’s worth keeping in mind that next year will be Yorke’s age 22 season and, even in this new era of aggressive promotions, the organization chose to give him a full year in A+ and a full year in AA. It wouldn’t shock me if we saw him at some point next season, but imo it’s a big ask to call him up to do the heavy lifting at second, unless we’re looking at another September 2023 type situation. I would bet against him being ready to be a significant MLB contributor in a playoff race at any point next year.
If we are going to consider Yorke as a serious second half option though, Chase Meidroth at least needs to be mentioned. He spent most of the year in AA in his first full pro season. I think he’s got a chance to arrive before Yorke does; if you hone in on strike zone command and contact ability, Meidroth’s bat might be less unready, even though the upside is lower. Yorke needs to be added to the 40 man after 2024, and Meidroth not until after 2025. I think that’s the main advantage Yorke has here.
If either of these players is the starting second baseman towards the end of a contending 2024 season, the team is out of it by the end of August again, or we hit on a 80th-90th percentile type season.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 2, 2023 6:55:49 GMT -5
Personally, I'd take Chang over either Urias or Reyes. It takes a year after returning for players to regain they're strength.
Yorke's lack of versatility is troublesome.
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Post by trajanacc on Oct 2, 2023 9:40:16 GMT -5
"most ... Henry Owens." If it's "most," why did you have to go back a hundred years? I went back that far because Owens, like Dalbec, epitomizes the flawed prospect archetype that I feel Yorke falls into - it's not a catch-all term for any and every minor league player. If I'm right, I will certainly come back to gloat 🤷🏾♂️ Hindsight bias/knew-it-all-along phenomenon. Easy to say a prospect was flawed after they get to the big leagues and flop. Almost all prospects, even the ones who become MLB stars, have perceived flaws at some point. As stated above, most don’t become good MLB players but some do. If it was so easy for teams to identify the good ones and the flops ahead of time, you wouldn’t see so much variance in prospect outcomes. |
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Post by bluechip on Oct 2, 2023 10:46:24 GMT -5
I don't understand why it would be remotely controversial that they should keep Urias. There are no better FA options. He can back up 3B with Turner gone, and in a worst-case scenario he's a decent platoon partner for Valdez. And they're probably going over the LTT anyway. The only question I might have is if his injury troubles might linger in a Mondesian fashion; it's a little worrisome that after missing so much time he's ending the season on the IL. I agree with this. He was a top prospect coming up, then put up 2-3 WAR (depending on formula) in 2021-22. Yeah his numbers took a hit in 2023 when he was hurt but he still got on base at a very respectable pace. His glove is fine at second or third. He’s unlikely to ever be a star, but his upside is easily worth $6 million. |
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Post by rickasadoorian on Oct 2, 2023 11:46:29 GMT -5
That's pretty harsh. Yorke had a successful season given his age. The odds are pretty solid that he can be a 2+ WAR player in his peak seasons, and I'd give him maybe a one in four chance of winning the every day job by the last third of next season. At no point has Valdez projected to have a better bat or a better glove than Yorke, and Valdez looks to me like he could be a major leaguer, so... Is that still true at this point re: hitting? Maybe, but I wonder how much of that is because Yorke started his career with a bang. Valdez was more of a slow burner and also looked older due to no 2020 season. He's been a completely different hitter since 2021. Valdez should hit for more power, Yorke should hit lefties better (but he really hasn't to date). I don't see one walking considerably more than the other. I guess it comes down to if Yorke hits closer to .260 or .300. |
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Post by rickasadoorian on Oct 2, 2023 11:51:34 GMT -5
"most ... Henry Owens." If it's "most," why did you have to go back a hundred years? I went back that far because Owens, like Dalbec, epitomizes the flawed prospect archetype that I feel Yorke falls into - it's not a catch-all term for any and every minor league player. If I'm right, I will certainly come back to gloat 🤷🏾♂️ Cool. I'll say all 60 prospects listed by Soxprospects.com will fail to have a significant MLB career. I'll be right at least 50 times, and that's conservative. 83.33% success rate. Saying a prospect is going to fail is nothing to gloat about. Saying a prospect will succeed is. |
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Post by incandenza on Oct 2, 2023 12:42:13 GMT -5
At no point has Valdez projected to have a better bat or a better glove than Yorke, and Valdez looks to me like he could be a major leaguer, so... Is that still true at this point re: hitting? Maybe, but I wonder how much of that is because Yorke started his career with a bang. Valdez was more of a slow burner and also looked older due to no 2020 season. He's been a completely different hitter since 2021. Valdez should hit for more power, Yorke should hit lefties better (but he really hasn't to date). I don't see one walking considerably more than the other. I guess it comes down to if Yorke hits closer to .260 or .300. Yorke is the 6th ranked prospect in the system. Valdez is 21st.
The most you can say is that Valdez is closer to the major leagues, so he's at least established a higher floor. But there's no way you get those respective rankings without Yorke projecting to be better than Valdez. Considering that Yorke's ranking is almost entirely driven by his hit tool, that goes for hitting as well.
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Post by asm19 on Oct 2, 2023 13:42:19 GMT -5
If it ain't Pablo or Urias (or Valdez, Yorke, etc), man it's tough to find a clear fit for next year at 2B. 2B/SS with expiring contracts after 2024: Tim Anderson (if White Sox pick up his option) Wily Adames Gleyber Torres Ha-Seong Kim Altuve (i.e. not getting traded) A flavor of some of the Free Agent 2B/SS: Whit Merrifield Solano Gio Urshela Adam Frazier Amed Rosario Isaiah Kiner Fifela Adalberto Mondesi Elvis Andrus Jose Iglesias Joey Wendle Enrique Hernandez (Lol) www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?&pos=2b,ss I don't envy being the guy who has to pick the starting 2B next year. Is it too crazy to pull an Angels and recklessly promote Marcelo Mayer |
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