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Post by incandenza on Oct 9, 2023 10:22:59 GMT -5
AL East Standings, 2023 playoffs only:
Boston 0-0 New York 0-0 Baltimore 0-2 Tampa Bay 0-2 Toronto 0-2
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Post by manfred on Oct 9, 2023 11:01:47 GMT -5
AL East Standings, 2023 playoffs only:
Boston 0-0 New York 0-0 Baltimore 0-2 Tampa Bay 0-2 Toronto 0-2
Kinda turns the “just make the playoffs” argument on its ear.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 9, 2023 11:18:20 GMT -5
AL East Standings, 2023 playoffs only:
Boston 0-0 New York 0-0 Baltimore 0-2 Tampa Bay 0-2 Toronto 0-2
Kinda turns the “just make the playoffs” argument on its ear. Does it? Baltimore won 100 games and a division championship and they've done no better than the third wild card team, other than earning a bye. And after one divisional round game fangraphs now has the 90-win Phillies as World Series favorites. Chaos reigns.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 9, 2023 11:25:40 GMT -5
AL East Standings, 2023 playoffs only: Boston 0-0 New York 0-0 Baltimore 0-2 Tampa Bay 0-2 Toronto 0-2
Yay, the Red Sox are tied for first place. I knew this not playing thing would help them out immensely. Kudos to Bloom for building a team than simply cannot lose in the post season. But does that I mean I have to give Cashman credit, too?
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 9, 2023 11:34:26 GMT -5
AL East Standings, 2023 playoffs only: Boston 0-0 New York 0-0 Baltimore 0-2 Tampa Bay 0-2 Toronto 0-2
Kinda turns the “just make the playoffs” argument on its ear. I think it reinforces that argument, unfortunately. There's such little reward for building the best team in baseball, I'm just happy the 2018 Sox bucked that trend.
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Post by manfred on Oct 9, 2023 11:43:33 GMT -5
Kinda turns the “just make the playoffs” argument on its ear. Does it? Baltimore won 100 games and a division championship and they've done no better than the third wild card team, other than earning a bye. And after one divisional round game fangraphs now has the 90-win Phillies as World Series favorites. Chaos reigns. Ok, fair. But I think it shows that a certain model excels. Tonight is big: Phillies go with Wheeler looking for a 2-0 lead. Dude looks like Mr. October. The Phils may not be made to win 100+ games, but in a short series Wheeler/Nola etc. and Harper, Turner, Realmuto — I’d rather have that than what the Os have or even the Dodgers. Regular season means pitching depth. Postseason means pitching dominance… but a short list. The Sox have a regular season style roster. They need the 1/2 pitchers to be real playoff teams.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 9, 2023 11:54:59 GMT -5
Does it? Baltimore won 100 games and a division championship and they've done no better than the third wild card team, other than earning a bye. And after one divisional round game fangraphs now has the 90-win Phillies as World Series favorites. Chaos reigns. Ok, fair. But I think it shows that a certain model excels. Tonight is big: Phillies go with Wheeler looking for a 2-0 lead. Dude looks like Mr. October. The Phils may not be made to win 100+ games, but in a short series Wheeler/Nola etc. and Harper, Turner, Realmuto — I’d rather have that than what the Os have or even the Dodgers. Regular season means pitching depth. Postseason means pitching dominance… but a short list. The Sox have a regular season style roster. They need the 1/2 pitchers to be real playoff teams. Intuitively, that all seems right to me. But fangraphs has found that there's no real team "type" that outperforms in the playoffs. So who knows.
There are also different ways the rule could apply. For instance, imagine Houck as a playoff starter when you knew he would only go four innings. That could be a deadly weapon.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Oct 9, 2023 18:02:08 GMT -5
DD on his way to the another World Series win.
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Post by rhswanzey on Oct 9, 2023 18:04:13 GMT -5
They are not fraudulent but not built for playoff success. The formula is clearly have 2 top notch, SPs, a good bullpen and a good lineup.I mean that was us in 2004. You can’t win in the playoffs with Meh starters I don't think there's a "formula" for winning in the playoffs IMO, you gotta get hot and get lucky breaks here and there. My remark about them being frauds is their unusual record in 1 run games and unsustainable avg with RISP. Does anyone know of any research re: a “rust” penalty. If such a penalty exists, it’d be interesting to figure, on average, how much better an irregular time off arm would need to be than a regular rest arm in order to justify the penalty.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,196
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Post by cdj on Oct 9, 2023 18:15:42 GMT -5
Wheeler is disgusting
The Franchyse took him 480 to right center
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Post by terriblehondo on Oct 9, 2023 18:27:42 GMT -5
I don't think there's a "formula" for winning in the playoffs IMO, you gotta get hot and get lucky breaks here and there. My remark about them being frauds is their unusual record in 1 run games and unsustainable avg with RISP. Does anyone know of any research re: a “rust” penalty. If such a penalty exists, it’d be interesting to figure, on average, how much better an irregular time off arm would need to be than a regular rest arm in order to justify the penalty. I am all for not having a long layoff. I would like to get rid of the last 2 wild cards. All it does is promote mediocrity. Never going to happen because all the World Series Trophy is, is just a hunk of metal. Got to have the extra teams so everyone can make more money.
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 9, 2023 18:33:07 GMT -5
The 1 game wild card was fun - punished teams for not winning the division and put them in an "anything can happen" 1-game situation that could end their season. That then typically pushed the ace to game 3 of the LDS, but now with all this rest Wheeler can go twice on normal rest in the LDS.
They'll need to eliminate a division to make that happen, it's rough for a division winner to be in a winner-take-all 1-game series, even if they aren't that good (looking at you Twins). I still think the long-term solution is 4 divisions, winners get the byes and then 4 wild card teams per league.
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Post by rhswanzey on Oct 9, 2023 18:57:53 GMT -5
Does anyone know of any research re: a “rust” penalty. If such a penalty exists, it’d be interesting to figure, on average, how much better an irregular time off arm would need to be than a regular rest arm in order to justify the penalty. I am all for not having a long layoff. I would like to get rid of the last 2 wild cards. All it does is promote mediocrity. Never going to happen because all the World Series Trophy is, is just a hunk of metal. Got to have the extra teams so everyone can make more money. It is interesting seeing the bye week teams having a hard time. I was more thinking in terms of playoff roster composition than playoff bracket format - though rust applies to both. The O’s radio crew was explaining their surprise that Bryan Baker made the roster over Fujinami (trade acquisition from OAK) and Baumann (60 MLB appearances). They noted that Baker had pitched once since the end of July - I guess he had actually been active in AAA since then, but still, his last appearance was over two full weeks ago on 9/23. He comes in and walks three of the four hitters he faced, which ended up becoming important runs in the end. Then again, there are probably just as many examples in the other direction. Iirc, E-Rod had 3+ weeks in between his last regular season start and game 4 in the 2018 WS.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Oct 9, 2023 19:10:30 GMT -5
Braves are donzo they have no shot
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Post by manfred on Oct 9, 2023 19:32:03 GMT -5
Braves are donzo they have no shot Looks like they have a pulse.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,404
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Post by radiohix on Oct 9, 2023 19:42:21 GMT -5
Phillies can't afford to let Kimberly save a 1 run game, they've gotta give themselves a bigger cushion lol
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,404
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Post by radiohix on Oct 9, 2023 20:02:13 GMT -5
Phillies can't afford to let Kimberly save a 1 run game, they've gotta give themselves a bigger cushion lol He won’t be saving hehe
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 9, 2023 20:03:12 GMT -5
Ironically my comment was going to be the meat of the lineup was coming up in the 8th and this is where the Phillies can actually use their best relievers instead of Kimbrell. But that failed, Hoffman was the best pitcher on the team for HR/9 too.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 9, 2023 20:16:52 GMT -5
Wow, what an ending
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Post by soxfaninnj on Oct 9, 2023 20:20:30 GMT -5
One of the best ends to a postseason game wow
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Post by soxfaninnj on Oct 9, 2023 20:20:44 GMT -5
Braves are donzo they have no shot Looks like they have a pulse. Your welcome
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 9, 2023 20:22:04 GMT -5
Does Hoffman's slider get down if the Phillies weren't distracted by the Noah Song situation all year? We'll never know for sure.
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Post by ixnayexxus on Oct 9, 2023 20:23:08 GMT -5
I said this well before the playoffs, but the Dodgers roster as a whole doesn't scare me in the slightest. Most of their best pitchers are out of action, and nearly half of their lineup is comprised of castoffs and reclamation projects
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Post by taiwansox on Oct 9, 2023 20:26:15 GMT -5
Wow DBacks are already up 3-0 in the first
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 9, 2023 20:53:34 GMT -5
Wow DBacks are already up 3-0 in the first The Dodgers rotation isn't that intimidating this year. They're left with Kershaw who has not been good during the postseason, Lance Lynn, and Bobby Miller, a far cry from what they've been trotting out in past seasons. I dont think their offense beyond Mookie, JD, and Freeman is that good either. It's kind of a top heavy offense.
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