What Do You Think of the Sox Now?

I actually had higher expectations for the Sox than most this season. I saw about a ~90 win team, with a solid rotation, lock down pen, and a good enough offense.

Buchholz is the key to the rotation, and while his performance so far is incredible, I'm not shocked that he's been this dominating. He is the ace of this staff. Lester is solid, and we knew he'd come back a bit to his norm after last seasons debacle, but he's not really an ace. I'd guess he finishes with a 3.70-4.20 ERA, and will have quite a few more laboring, but not disastrous starts. Dempster is pitching exactly as I expected, except with far more strikeouts. He's a very reliable #3 who just embodies that "solid, veteran" pitcher in the middle of the rotation. Doubront is a huge concern, because without his velocity on the FB, his issues with the lack of command magnifies and exposes him big time. At least we have Webster in the wings, and I think he'd be a solid option at the bottom of the rotation. It's too early to tell with Lackey, but everyone knew, if healthy, we'd see a far better pitcher this year than we did in 2011.

Ortiz's return has comforted concerns over the middle of the lineup, and I'd add that while Napoli strikes out at an extremely high frequency, he has overall been a great offensive performer. Middlebrooks and Drew have played below their ability offensively, but I'm confident and happy with them in the bottom part of the lineup. Ellsbury has been nice on the bases, but underwelming otherwise at the plate. This doesn't surprise me to be honest, and while he's certainly capable of picking up his average and power production, that 2011 season is going to always been the outlier for me. It will be really interesting to see the contract he gets this offseason. Pedroia has been solid, but with very limited XBH power. That should come though. You can argue he's "slumping" in a way, but his AVG and OBP are terrific. The LF situation is one I'm very comfortable with, and I don't think the Sox should seek an upgrade there this season, as someone else mentioned on here. Victorino's defense in the outfield is a huge asset and will save us a bunch of runs.

Our main catcher is the black hole, offensively and defensively. Getting Chooch from the Phillies may be asking a little much, and I'm not sure how practical it is to have D-Ross play more than 40-50% of the time. But hopefully we upgrade there.

Overall, I see the Sox finishing in first or second place, and easily making the postseason. We have a very solid top 3 in the rotation to rely on, even if there's inevitable regression with Buchholz. Webster gives comfort to the issues with the bottom of rotation, but if Lackey faces anymore injury issues, and Doubront can't recapture his velocity or misses significant time, we may need to check out some other options. I predict 94 wins, with our pitchers and hitters both among the leaders in strikeouts, a fantastic bullpen ERA, overall above average defense, and a close-nit and likable team.

Except against Texas who seems to own the Sox, the Sox have been very impressive and fun to watch.

I picked them with 75 wins figuring that their range was between 75 - 85 wins and I figured that Toronto and Tampa would be piling up the wins and that the Sox would be looking to sell off parts by July 31st lowering their win total in the end.

I recall that the 1994 Red Sox started out the season 20-7 and they wound up 54-61 and were saved from losing 90 something games by the well-timed players' strike that ended the season. So a 20-8 start by the Sox this year doesn't exactly guarantee great success.

However we are talking about this year's team and I am heartened by the developments I've seen. It's obvious the circus isn't in town anymore now that the lead clown Bobby Valentine is long gone. The switch to Farrell and a coaching staff that's on the same page really does make a big difference.

I do see problems up ahead for the Sox. Lester is starting to revert back a bit to what he was doing last season - complaining about the umps, walking a few too many batters, etc, but I do think now that he'll be substantially better than last year. I still think we're looking at a ERA around 4.

Buchholz has had stretches where he's pitched like Cy Young and stretches where he's pitched like a minor leaguer, but I do think we'll get a great year out of Clay, although I question if it'll be for 175 IP or 215.

Dempster has been a pleasant surprise with the K rates. I'm hoping Lackey is decent, like 2010, but my real hope is that Allen Webster joins the rotation and pitches like a front-line (the kind of guy you'd want pitching in a post-season series) starter and bumps Doubront into the bullpen into the Aceves/Morales role.
If the Sox can make it thru 93% of the season with six starters they'll be in pretty good shape. My guess is Wright would be the 7th starter?

The bullpen concerns me. I don't trust Hanrahan (too many counts he pitches from behind and too many walks and HRs allowed). I trust Bailey, but not to be completely healthy (and he's hurt again!). I think Tazawa and Uehara (I hope he holds out) are great. I think they need another impact reliever to take the burden off of them with my hope being that De La Rosa can be that guy by the end of the year (Bard can be written off unfortunately). I hope Breslow soon displaces the ineffective Andrew Miller as the primary lefty.

The lineup has been great and the big difference maker so far has been Daniel Nava, who's provided a lefty (Switch-hitting) bat with OBP AND power. That allows him to bat 5th and slide low OBP guys like WMB and Salty down in the order. The Sox need this to continue. Ortiz and Napoli have been a great righty/lefty slugging duo and Ellsbury, Pedroia, and to my surprise, Victorino, have been good table setters, although I think it would be helpful to see more power out of Ellsbury and/or Pedroia.

I think Salty is a problem as his defense is awful and he's just not a good hitter. I do wonder if Lavarnway continues to hit in AAA, if he'll get another chance. Ross is an excellent backup catcher. And if Drew doesn't hit better, they can always go to Iglesias.

And I do like the bench, although to be honest I prefer Brock Holt to Ciriaco. Carp and Gomes cover the Sox very well in case Napoli and Ortiz have injuries.

The team defense could be awesome by September if Iglesias winds up at SS and Bradley comes in for defense or winds up in LF by the end of the season. Victorino is an excellent RF (although I still worry that his bat will fade), but the obvious weak link is when Salty catches. I do wonder if the Sox will look to get rid of him and replace him with Lavarnway or somebody else.

What I've realized is that the Astros being in the league will add extra wins (duh!), and that the rest of the league REALLY isn't that strong. I think Toronto will be better, and I won't believe in NY's demise until I actually see it. But really, only the Tigers and Rangers really scare me. There's enough parity that the Sox can win in the upper 80s to low 90s if most things (health) break right and that's a departure from the way I felt about the team prior to the season. That said, if the injuries hit, I can see the team sliding toward .500.

But honestly, my biggest reason for feeling optimism is seeing the state of the farm system. The Sox can pluck Webster and hopefully De La Rosa (improved control needed) out of AAA, along with Lavarnway, Iglesias, Bradley (I like his future, especially since we'll have him thru 2019 ) And I think Brentz, if he doesn't shoot himself again, has a good future ahead of him. He seems to be getting the message to lay off bad pitches.

I like seeing the young pitchers behind Webster. I think Barnes will be a good major league pitcher and he's one of a trio to go along with Workman and Ranaudo, who is finally becoming the pitcher Theo hoped he'd be when he drafted him. And right below him is Owens, who is such an intriguing pitcher and in my opinion could be better than a middle of the rotation starter if he can continue along the improved path he's been taking.

And of course, Xander is tearing the cover off the ball in AA, and Garin Cecchini is developing into the Jon Olerud style hitter I think he can become - he's the best lefty bat they have in the minors in my opinion and I can see Bogaerts and Cecchini in the lineup in a few years, although I have no idea at what position (I'll guess LF for Bogaerts and 1B for Cecchini).

This is good stuff and a big departure from last year.