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What Is A Sword or Should The Red Sox Trade For Dylan Cease?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 3, 2024 17:48:04 GMT -5
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jan 3, 2024 18:46:08 GMT -5
I think Cease would make a great addition to this team whether you think he's an "ace" or not. Tons of whiffs, weak contact and throws lots of innings. I would absolutely take that.
Considering this team needs a legit starting pitcher and a right handed power hitter, a trade I would love to see would be getting Cease and Jimenez. If the price is right I would love to see Breslow pull the trigger on that. I think Jimenez is a great buy low candidate.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jan 5, 2024 18:43:49 GMT -5
I think Cease would make a great addition to this team whether you think he's an "ace" or not. Tons of whiffs, weak contact and throws lots of innings. I would absolutely take that. Considering this team needs a legit starting pitcher and a right handed power hitter, a trade I would love to see would be getting Cease and Jimenez. If the price is right I would love to see Breslow pull the trigger on that. I think Jimenez is a great buy low candidate. Is it worth Anthony or Meyer plus plus llus |
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Post by rhswanzey on Jan 5, 2024 19:58:14 GMT -5
Baltimore should outbid us based on their system and phase of contention cycle. Doesn’t mean they will, though.
This team isn’t one starting pitcher away, is it?
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 5, 2024 20:01:07 GMT -5
I don't want to trade for luzardo and I feel the same on cease even more so. He has 2 years of control and I'm just having a hard time seeing the rationale pushing in the type of chips it'll cost for Cease for a 2 year span. This roster isn't ready to start pushing chips in major trades.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 5, 2024 20:10:06 GMT -5
I don't want to trade for luzardo and I feel the same on cease even more so. He has 2 years of control and I'm just having a hard time seeing the rationale pushing in the type of chips it'll cost for Cease for a 2 year span. This roster isn't ready to start pushing chips in major trades. Yeah, and these guys are just not that amazing. Luzardo has a 3.3 ZiPS projection and 2.6 on Steamer. Cease is 2.7 on Steamer. 1998 Pedro or 2016 Sale they are not. |
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Post by asm19 on Jan 5, 2024 20:37:48 GMT -5
I don't want to trade for luzardo and I feel the same on cease even more so. He has 2 years of control and I'm just having a hard time seeing the rationale pushing in the type of chips it'll cost for Cease for a 2 year span. This roster isn't ready to start pushing chips in major trades. Yeah, and these guys are just not that amazing. Luzardo has a 3.3 ZiPS projection and 2.6 on Steamer. Cease is 2.7 on Steamer. 1998 Pedro or 2016 Sale they are not. 100% this. 🙌 It feels like fans/media are (understandably) thirsting so badly for an ace, that they are daydreaming on any appetizing option that is indicated as available. Chris Sale averaged like 5 WAR a year for five years before he got traded… and then went UP a level on first year in Boston and struck out 300 dudes. (As a 28 year old on a 3 year deal making like 12 mil a year.) I don’t even know what would be the closest thing to that type of SP asset today - maybe holding Farhan Zaidi at gunpoint and asking for Logan Webb? |
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Post by melvinhoggs on Jan 5, 2024 20:56:17 GMT -5
Yeah, and these guys are just not that amazing. Luzardo has a 3.3 ZiPS projection and 2.6 on Steamer. Cease is 2.7 on Steamer. 1998 Pedro or 2016 Sale they are not. 100% this. 🙌 It feels like fans/media are (understandably) thirsting so badly for an ace, that they are daydreaming on any appetizing option that is indicated as available. Chris Sale averaged like 5 WAR a year for five years before he got traded… and then went UP a level on first year in Boston and struck out 300 dudes. (As a 28 year old on a 3 year deal making like 12 mil a year.) I don’t even know what would be the closest thing to that type of SP asset today - maybe holding Farhan Zaidi at gunpoint and asking for Logan Webb? As you said, Sale managed to kick it up to another gear after being traded. I don't remember for certain, but I'm willing to bet the projections prior to 2017 weren't that he'd rattle off 7.2 and 6.2 WAR seasons.
The ideal scenario is that you trust your front office to identify guys who have the potential to take another leap forward. That way you're not trading the whole farm for a 5-WAR guy, you're trading a chunk of the farm for a 3-4 WAR guy that might take off. I know that's easier said than done, but it's easy for me to see why people would want their front office to make bold moves like that.
All that being said, I am 100% out on Cease; 2024 looks like they'll only compete if nearly everything breaks right and I have no interest in paying his price to get only two years of him.
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Post by keninten on Jan 5, 2024 22:47:46 GMT -5
Yeah, and these guys are just not that amazing. Luzardo has a 3.3 ZiPS projection and 2.6 on Steamer. Cease is 2.7 on Steamer. 1998 Pedro or 2016 Sale they are not. 100% this. 🙌 It feels like fans/media are (understandably) thirsting so badly for an ace, that they are daydreaming on any appetizing option that is indicated as available. Chris Sale averaged like 5 WAR a year for five years before he got traded… and then went UP a level on first year in Boston and struck out 300 dudes. (As a 28 year old on a 3 year deal making like 12 mil a year.) I don’t even know what would be the closest thing to that type of SP asset today - maybe holding Farhan Zaidi at gunpoint and asking for Logan Webb? Red Sox fans should be glad he`s good with scissors. |
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jan 5, 2024 23:11:45 GMT -5
I don't want to trade for luzardo and I feel the same on cease even more so. He has 2 years of control and I'm just having a hard time seeing the rationale pushing in the type of chips it'll cost for Cease for a 2 year span. This roster isn't ready to start pushing chips in major trades. Yeah, and these guys are just not that amazing. Luzardo has a 3.3 ZiPS projection and 2.6 on Steamer. Cease is 2.7 on Steamer. 1998 Pedro or 2016 Sale they are not. To push back on this, 1998 Pedro and 2016 Sale were arguably the best pitchers in baseball at the time. I think that is setting the bar way, way too high just because of how rare it is for a pitcher to even reach those levels.
I think the Beckett trade is much more reasonable personally and the type of deal I would like to see Breslow go after. Luzardo to me is in that category, and Cease is probably pretty close. I don't know if that Beckett/Lowell trade happens in 2023 though, a lot has changed.
Edit: Just to add more to this, there really just aren't many pitchers who will ever be projected for 4+ WAR. There will probably be a dozen or so every year. Yamamoto is one year younger than Luzardo and has a nearly identical Steamer projection next year - 3.4 WAR. And the Dodgers just shelled out $365 million to get him.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 5, 2024 23:26:48 GMT -5
100% this. 🙌 It feels like fans/media are (understandably) thirsting so badly for an ace, that they are daydreaming on any appetizing option that is indicated as available. Chris Sale averaged like 5 WAR a year for five years before he got traded… and then went UP a level on first year in Boston and struck out 300 dudes. (As a 28 year old on a 3 year deal making like 12 mil a year.) I don’t even know what would be the closest thing to that type of SP asset today - maybe holding Farhan Zaidi at gunpoint and asking for Logan Webb? As you said, Sale managed to kick it up to another gear after being traded. I don't remember for certain, but I'm willing to bet the projections prior to 2017 weren't that he'd rattle off 7.2 and 6.2 WAR seasons.
The ideal scenario is that you trust your front office to identify guys who have the potential to take another leap forward. That way you're not trading the whole farm for a 5-WAR guy, you're trading a chunk of the farm for a 3-4 WAR guy that might take off. I know that's easier said than done, but it's easy for me to see why people would want their front office to make bold moves like that.
All that being said, I am 100% out on Cease; 2024 looks like they'll only compete if nearly everything breaks right and I have no interest in paying his price to get only two years of him.
This also makes Luzardo a less attractive target, dropping his meaningful prospective tenure in BOS to 2025 and 2026 only. I also don't think Luzardo will be available for anything short of a king's ransom. The Marlins are now Tampa South and the Rays Way is to not trade young studs like Luzardo when they're really cheap and controlled (see Glasnow, Tyler and many others before him). Moving Luzardo now would be pretty strange for Bendix if he's still reading from the Rays playbook, short of being blown away (see Archer, Chris). Still, CB2 seems to be talking a lot (and perhaps leaking to Speier) about trading for controllable pitchers, which makes it sound like he's discussed frameworks with other GMs, so I'm going to predict that if there is a trade for a young SP, he will come from SEA. DiPoto famously has talked trades from a hospital bed, so I can't help but wonder if he and CB2 have been trading texts ever since the Urias/Campbell transaction and it's just a matter of time before they shake on something. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 5, 2024 23:28:26 GMT -5
Yeah, and these guys are just not that amazing. Luzardo has a 3.3 ZiPS projection and 2.6 on Steamer. Cease is 2.7 on Steamer. 1998 Pedro or 2016 Sale they are not. To push back on this, 1998 Pedro and 2016 Sale were arguably the best pitchers in baseball at the time. I think that is setting the bar way, way too high just because of how rare it is for a pitcher to even reach those levels.
I think the Beckett trade is much more reasonable personally and the type of deal I would like to see Breslow go after. Luzardo to me is in that category, and Cease is probably pretty close. I don't know if that Beckett/Lowell trade happens in 2023 though, a lot has changed.
Edit: Just to add more to this, there really just aren't many pitchers who will ever be projected for 4+ WAR. There will probably be a dozen or so every year. Yamamoto is one year younger than Luzardo and has a nearly identical Steamer projection next year - 3.4 WAR. And the Dodgers just shelled out $365 million to get him.
And their fans will be regretting it for many years... |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 5, 2024 23:39:25 GMT -5
Yeah, and these guys are just not that amazing. Luzardo has a 3.3 ZiPS projection and 2.6 on Steamer. Cease is 2.7 on Steamer. 1998 Pedro or 2016 Sale they are not. To push back on this, 1998 Pedro and 2016 Sale were arguably the best pitchers in baseball at the time. I think that is setting the bar way, way too high just because of how rare it is for a pitcher to even reach those levels.
I think the Beckett trade is much more reasonable personally and the type of deal I would like to see Breslow go after. Luzardo to me is in that category, and Cease is probably pretty close. I don't know if that Beckett/Lowell trade happens in 2023 though, a lot has changed. ... not the least reason is because of data mining and how its reconfigured pitching and hitting. No secrets anymore. Players have their strengths and weaknesses minutely catalogued and on continuous video rotation. That can be a two-edged sword, allowing for adaptive pitching mechanics that provide more power and better spin rates but at the possible cost of greatly increased physical stress. It is definitely a different game. |
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Jan 5, 2024 23:42:54 GMT -5
Has anyone done a deep-dive on why Cease was so bad this year compared to his insane 2022 season?
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jan 6, 2024 0:00:25 GMT -5
To push back on this, 1998 Pedro and 2016 Sale were arguably the best pitchers in baseball at the time. I think that is setting the bar way, way too high just because of how rare it is for a pitcher to even reach those levels.
I think the Beckett trade is much more reasonable personally and the type of deal I would like to see Breslow go after. Luzardo to me is in that category, and Cease is probably pretty close. I don't know if that Beckett/Lowell trade happens in 2023 though, a lot has changed.
Edit: Just to add more to this, there really just aren't many pitchers who will ever be projected for 4+ WAR. There will probably be a dozen or so every year. Yamamoto is one year younger than Luzardo and has a nearly identical Steamer projection next year - 3.4 WAR. And the Dodgers just shelled out $365 million to get him.
And their fans will be regretting it for many years... The problem is that in order to get good pitching, you need to either:
- Develop it internally
- Give out larger contracts than you would like, to pitchers who are older than you would like, who probably aren't as good as you like
- Trade away a package of players that is probably more than you would like
If you don't do any of these, which is more or less how the Red Sox have operated for a while, you rely on the Giolitos and Paxtons of the world to fill out your rotation, which will probably end up being pretty mediocre.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 6, 2024 0:18:05 GMT -5
And their fans will be regretting it for many years... The problem is that in order to get good pitching, you need to either:
- Develop it internally
- Give out larger contracts than you would like, to pitchers who are older than you would like, who probably aren't as good as you like
- Trade away a package of players that is probably more than you would like
If you don't do any of these, which is more or less how the Red Sox have operated for a while, you rely on the Giolitos and Paxtons of the world to fill out your rotation, which will probably end up being pretty mediocre.
Absolutely. And if Breslow/Bailey can realize the ceilings of Bello, Crawford, Houck, and Whitlock, we'll have door #1 covered! |
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 6, 2024 2:06:00 GMT -5
Interesting observation. Add Wink. And as several of that group arrived via trade I would add Pivetta based on his continuing development since he arrived here pretty much as a kid with upside. Even Imanaga, though clearly not a kid, would enter the pitching development system as an MLB rookie in ST. We may be very happy for this new “pitching coach” triumverate.
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Post by chaimtime on Jan 6, 2024 10:17:20 GMT -5
100% this. 🙌 It feels like fans/media are (understandably) thirsting so badly for an ace, that they are daydreaming on any appetizing option that is indicated as available. Chris Sale averaged like 5 WAR a year for five years before he got traded… and then went UP a level on first year in Boston and struck out 300 dudes. (As a 28 year old on a 3 year deal making like 12 mil a year.) I don’t even know what would be the closest thing to that type of SP asset today - maybe holding Farhan Zaidi at gunpoint and asking for Logan Webb? As you said, Sale managed to kick it up to another gear after being traded. I don't remember for certain, but I'm willing to bet the projections prior to 2017 weren't that he'd rattle off 7.2 and 6.2 WAR seasons.
The ideal scenario is that you trust your front office to identify guys who have the potential to take another leap forward. That way you're not trading the whole farm for a 5-WAR guy, you're trading a chunk of the farm for a 3-4 WAR guy that might take off. I know that's easier said than done, but it's easy for me to see why people would want their front office to make bold moves like that.
All that being said, I am 100% out on Cease; 2024 looks like they'll only compete if nearly everything breaks right and I have no interest in paying his price to get only two years of him.
For what it’s worth, ZiPS projected 6.2 WAR for Sale going into 2017 and 6.1 going into 2018. These guys available are good, but none of them are anywhere close to Sale level. |
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vokuhila
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Post by vokuhila on Jan 6, 2024 10:33:05 GMT -5
Has anyone done a deep-dive on why Cease was so bad this year compared to his insane 2022 season? Deep dive, no. But there are obvious warning signs. His k/9 went down two years in a row and his bb/9 went up two years in a row, additionally he has lost more than a mile on his fastball from '22 to '23. You better find an underlying fixable explanation for that, or else you have to assume his decline has already started. |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 6, 2024 16:57:11 GMT -5
The 2 year decline of Cease's strikeouts (4.6%) and walks (0.5%) along with his decreased fastball velocity (1.0 mph) aren't good, but they're slight enough that they may be randomness/noise. He did set career highs in LD% (24.9%) and hardhit% (41.5%) which lead to a career high .330 BABIP.
The greatest change I see was the drop in effectiveness of his curveball over the past 3 years: +1.3, -5.1, -9.1 (runs above average). At the same time he has increased to usage of his slider (up 8.1%) while decreasing the usage of his changeup/splitter (4.4%). It's possible he has lost some of the feel for his curveball and a decrease in its usage while increasing the usage of his changeup could negate some of the loss.
I'd still feel pretty good about a guy who was the best in baseball last year in inducing bad swings. For anyone who hasn't yet, check out the 'sword' article linked at the top - it's interesting in ways aside from Dylan Cease as well.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 20, 2024 21:29:03 GMT -5
Below are the top SWORD pitchers by pitch from 2023: Fastball: Michael Kopech (15) Sinker: Jordan Montgomery (9) Cutter: Framber Valdez (14) Slider: Spencer Strider (45) Sweeper: Sonny Gray (23) Slurve: Jose Berrios (23) Curveball: Blake Snell (28) Knuckle Curve: Zac Gallen (29) Changeup: Trevor Richards (22) Splitter: Kevin Gausman (14) Forkball: Kodai Senga (17) www.mlb.com/news/statcast-s-swords-leader-for-every-pitch-type-in-2023 |
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 22, 2024 9:33:19 GMT -5
Below are the top SWORD pitchers by pitch from 2023: Fastball: Michael Kopech (15) Sinker: Jordan Montgomery (9) Cutter: Framber Valdez (14) Slider: Spencer Strider (45)Sweeper: Sonny Gray (23) Slurve: Jose Berrios (23) Curveball: Blake Snell (28) Knuckle Curve: Zac Gallen (29) Changeup: Trevor Richards (22) Splitter: Kevin Gausman (14) Forkball: Kodai Senga (17) www.mlb.com/news/statcast-s-swords-leader-for-every-pitch-type-in-2023Nice to step back and appreciate the StriderSlider, an absolute cheat code pitch. |
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