2023 System Review: By The Numbers | SoxProspects.com Forum

2023 System Review: By The Numbers Jan 18, 2024 20:08:06 GMT -5 philsbosoxfan, bentossaurus, and 12 more like this

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Post by ramireja on Jan 18, 2024 20:08:06 GMT -5

I'm a bit late with a post like this (been a crazy year for work among other things), but better late than never....especially with the doom and gloom surrounding the parent club's offseason. Some nuggets on 2023 pitching. Feel free to add or discuss below.

35.2%: That’s highest K% (preferred to K/9) among the 272 pitchers in the minor leagues last year with 100 innings. That K% belongs to Wikelman Gonzalez across A+ and AA. Note that Isaac Coffey ranks 12th out of those 272 with a 31.5 K% across those same levels. Drop the threshold to 90 innings and Dalton Rogers ranks 11th out of 393 pitchers with his 33.2 K%.

16.8%: Once again looking at the 272 pitchers in the minors with 100 innings, Chih-Jung Liu’s SwStr% ranked 2nd only behind Drew Thorpe. That might come as a surprise to many, it did for me, and suggests an upside in his profile that might be overlooked. Other Sox pitching prospects, Angel Bastardo and Hunter Dobbins ranked 9th and 19th in this category among the same pool of pitchers, respectively.

2.30: That’s Yordanny Monegro’s FIP during his time with Salem before a late promotion to Greenville. That FIP ranked 1st out of 142 pitchers in the league who pitched 40+ innings.

3.6%: That’s the miniscule BB% for Jedixson Paez on the year. It ranks as the lowest in our system among pitchers with 30 innings or more (Jedixson pitched 84.1). It also ranks as the lowest among all teenagers in full-season ball (so DSL excluded).

15: That’s the number of strikeouts on the year for Hayden Mullins making his pro debut following TJ surgery. What’s so impressive about that? He only faced 27 batters on the year and so he struck out 55.6% of those batters. Granted this is a former college arm against FSL and Low-A bats, but I’ll be interested to see what kind of a role he gets in 2024 and how he performs in that role.

39.5%: Above I noted the highest K% in the entire minor leagues for pitchers that logged more than 100 innings. Drop the bar to 20 innings to allow for relievers, and the highest K% in our system belonged to Christopher Troye who struck out nearly 40% of batters faced in his 49.1 innings across A+ and AA. His K% ranks 18th of out the 3,134 pitchers to reach 20 innings last year, or if you prefer 8th out of the 1,832 pitchers to reach 40 innings.

2023 System Review: By The Numbers Jan 22, 2024 15:33:23 GMT -5 philsbosoxfan, Oregon Norm, and 8 more like this

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Post by ramireja on Jan 22, 2024 15:33:23 GMT -5

Some stuff on hitters:

0.089 -> 0.275: That’s the swing in Roman Anthony’s ISO (Isolated Power) from his time with Salem (ISO = 0.089) to Greenville (ISO = 0.275) and represents a monstrous shift when considering that he had >200 PAs at each level so this isn’t a product of tiny sample sizes. I know the hitting environments are of course different but this increase in ISO is so huge in warrants additional explanation. In looking at some batted ball data, when moving up a level, Anthony decreased his GB% by 3.9 percentage points and increased his LD% by 3.5 percentage points. He also decreased his pull rate with an increase in using the center of the field. I suppose the most massive shift though is an increase in HR/FB% from 3.3% to 37.5%. That of course is going to be impacted by ballpark but I have to think that large of a swing also indicates an improvement in quality of contact. Maybe someone with EV data can chime in on any differences seen between the two stops.

<15% & >.200: Only one hitter in the South Atlantic League with at least 200 PAs (N = 128) had a K% < 15% and an ISO of > .200. That was Blaze Jordan. In fact, if you set the K% threshold to 20% and count hitters with an ISO of .200 or more, you still only find two guys out of the 128 player sample.

98: This is the number of walks for Niko Kavadas on the year across his time in Portland and Worcester. This figure led our system and tied for 9th out of 1108 qualified hitters in the entire minor league system. His BB% of 20.4% ranked 3rd out of 1054 hitters with 300 PAs. I feel like it was a quiet year for Kavadas in prospect circles and understandably so with a decline in numbers coming off of the preposterous things he did in Single A levels. That said, Kavadas still managed to post OBPs of .386 and .364 in AA and AAA, respectively, which is impressive considering he barely managed to clear the Mendoza line in each of those stops. Further, he did so while posting ISOs of >.200 at each level. Of course, a high K% and a low BA will always be part of his game, but this is still a near elite power/patience combo that one could argue creates enough value to overcome low BA in his offensive profile.

119-122: Across the last three levels for which Allan Castro has had at least 100 PAs, Castro’s offensive production has been in a tight range of wRC+ posting a 122 wRC+ in the FCL (2022, 141 PAs), a 121 wRC+ in Low-A (2023, 306 PAs), and a 119 wRC+ in High-A (2023, 186 PAs). It’s been nice to see him consistently producing at an above-average clip with the future potential for more if he can add more strength to his game.

54: Ceddanne Rafaela’s 54 extra-base hits led our system on the year which should be worthy of a bullet point on its own. What’s even more impressive is that this is now the 2nd year in a row for which he has led the system in this category cementing this electric aspect of his game.

11.5%: First off, there were only 45 hitters in the DSL who had an ISO of .200 or greater among the 509 hitters with at least 100 PAs. Among those 45 batters, the lowest K% belonged to Yoeilin Cespedes at 11.5% (ISO: 0.215) indicating an elite ability to pair contact skills with damage. What’s kind of crazy is that he did so with a pretty low BB% of 6.7% suggesting he wasn’t even being all that selective when he swung. That’s pretty nutty. I hope Cespedes can work on his selectivity and draw more walks moving forward as it’s pretty exciting to think of the damage he’ll be able to do with the bat if he can hone his approach.

0.319: That would be the ISO for Brooks Brannon on the year, with a fairly major caveat that he was limited to 77 plate appearances on the year. That was the highest ISO in our system for batters with at least 50 PAs. Of course, if you raise the bar to something more meaningful, even 100 PAs, the ISO leader in the system was none other than Bobby Dalbec (ISO: 0.288). Back to Brannon though, nobody expects that ISO moving forward, but his reputation as a power hitter has been warranted thus far in his pro career. I don’t think anyone would be surprised for him to maintain an ISO between .200 - .250 over the course of a full season if he can get healthy.