What are the best/worst case scenarios for 2024?

I'd give them 68 wins the NL Central, but this AL East is freaking loaded. 

I mean best case everyone is healthy, and worst case Triston Casas tears his ACL over the weekend playing pickup basketball. But putting health aside I guess:

Realistic Non-injury Best Case: 90ish wins

Devers & Casas mash, Story reverts to Colorado form, Yoshida is consistent for his second full season, and guys like Duran & Abreu show that 2023 wasn’t an aberration. Meanwhile, we find out Dave Bush was the worst pitching coach of all time, and the pitching staff is solid with flashes of excellence from Bello, Pivetta, etc.

Also, the front office actually tries to get better at the deadline.

Realistic Non-injury Worst Case: 69 Wins

It turns out Lucas Giolito is just bad now. The cadre of swingmen the team hope can take a leap… don’t. The bullpen is way more flammable than last year. And beyond Devers and Casas, the offense is mediocre. With Netflix filming and Cora looking to the exits, things get ugly. The team sells at the deadline. Also the Yankees win the World Series.

If this is the team they go into the season with - no additional starter or OF acquisition - I am thinking 81 wins (I think I had 78 for my estimate last year).

If they do finally spend a bit of money and make a few key additions - I am thinking 86 wins.

But as others have said - and I've been thinking since early this year - the error bar is going to be significant - they could be quite a bit better, or much worse.

Let's start playing the games and see how it goes. This is my 57th year being a fan of this team - I am not about to start ignoring them now!

Worst case: The plane crashes
Best case: they win the world series

Just want to toss out that we have another hell stretch in the schedule around the same time of year as the 10 in a row vs HOU/LAD (incl Barraclough game) that simply broke the 2023 team.

This one is 26 games in 27 days beginning in mid August - the first stretch includes HOU (6), TEX (3) and BAL (4).

I think it’s relevant info re: what are optimistic outcomes, for a team that already feels light on pitching.

Go .333 against the AL East and .400 against the rest of baseball and that's 61 wins. 

I think the worst case scenario is if one of Pivetta, Bello, or Giolito gets hurt. Those are your 3 guys that will probably eat 170-180 innings this year.

Crawford and Whitlock/Houck won't eat much at the back end, you're probably getting 250 innings combined with all three of them.

There's a very realistic shot Dick Fitts is spot starting games in June, because they have nothing else to go to. The rotation depth is one of the worsts in MLB.

Pivetta and Giolito could get flipped by the trade deadline, if this scenario happens. Which would make the situation even more dire.

Obviously true best/worst case scenarios are something like 110 wins or 50 wins but I think reasonable numbers are something like worst case = 2023 nationals, this team is better but in a slightly harder division so ~69 wins seems like a reasonable worst case. For best case I'd take the baseline zips projections that have the team at ~78 wins and adjust with the following assumptions (I know thats not how this is supposed to work but its good enough for rough cut optimism)

Casas plays like he did the 2nd half, over a full season that looks like 2021 Vlad Jr (+4 wins)
Story/Devers/Giolito play near their peak years (+ 2 wins each)
Pivetta's 2nd half was a legitimate breakout and he's one of the better pitchers in the league (+ 3 wins)
Abreu/Duran play full seasons at the same level they showed last year (+ 1 win each)

Thats a 93 win team and ignores the benefits of a healthy Whitlock/Houck/O'Neill, Crawford having a full offseason to ramp up as a starter, and Yoshida having more time at DH/having had a season to adjust to the MLB schedule if you feel like using those in place of any of my "go right" assumptions. It also doesn't take into account that if the team is on a 93 win pace at the deadline that we're probably buyers.

With the upside of the existing team established I do still think we're still the most likely landing spot for Montgomery and I wish we'd addressed rotation depth with a high floor/low ceiling guy either through a trade (ex. Mets/Houser) or signing a guy who didn't need a guaranteed rotation spot (ex. Reds/Suter). I don't think any of the RH FA bats made a lot of sense (our OF is already crowded) but I'd be interested trading for someone like Drury or India depending on prospect cost.

Best case from a prospects standpoint is we win the lottery and take the next Holliday

I feel like the offense can be dynamic, if Grissom is ready to go as a MLB hitter, Duran/Abreu do what they did last year, Casas' 2nd half last year is who he really is, Yoshida's 1st half last year is who he really is, O'Neill and Dalbec can at least be dangerous vs LHP, Rafaela can do enough offensively to feel fine about him in the 9 hole. I believe it will be important for Cora to play matchups more, especially in the outfield/DH spots.

Defensively, if Yoshida's innings in the outfield are mostly replaced by Rafaela, and Story plays a full season at SS the defense will be much improved. Devers can be a little better, but not hoping for much there, hopeful Grissom is athletic enough to be a solid 2B.

As we all know, the rotation is the biggest question mark. If the Sox get 30+ starts from Pivetta, Bello, Giolito and Crawford and they can all be a sub 4.00 ERA or close to it, and one of Houck or Whitlock turns a corner as a starter (I still believe that they might be most effectively used as this is Whitlock/Houck day and we are going to hope that combined they can get through 7 innings every 5th day), or maybe Jordan Montgomery will be a late addition (not counting on it).

The bullpen should be good, especially if the starters are eating innings and they are not over used.

If a lot of the things mentioned above happen, I think this is a playoff team and a really fun team to watch. If not, Breslow will be selling off pieces at the trade deadline, and maybe we will get to see some of the top prospects get their feet wet.