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Post by carl4sox on Feb 29, 2024 8:59:07 GMT -5
There's an article in the Guardian today that Liverpool -- FSG's soccer team -- lost 9 million pounds 2022-23. Sorry, it's behind a paywall.
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 29, 2024 9:18:07 GMT -5
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Post by awalkinthepark on Feb 29, 2024 10:22:17 GMT -5
I don't understand how this organization faceplanted so bad. How does the vision of this franchise completely change a year later when that 1 year went exactly as everyone expected it to? It's not like the 2023 team had massive expectations and then things unraveled ala 2011. They were coming off of a 78 win season and let Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi leave, and the new guys they brought in did not make up for that loss in production. Heading into 2023, projection systems had them as a .500-ish team and finishing last in the division, which is exactly what happened. What was the vision a year ago and why wasn't it based on the team winning ~81 games?
I just don't get how a franchise has 4 years to right the ship between trading Mookie and Devers' prime seasons, and this is what they come up with.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Feb 29, 2024 10:37:38 GMT -5
But is there really a change? Perhaps what happened - and what got Bloom fired - was a failure to carry out the vision which was: sell at the deadline in 2022 unless the playoff odds were high and restock the improving farm system to adjust payroll and gain assets to use on the field or in a trade. The same situation existed for 2023 because no progress was made in '22 and once again Bloom failed to execute believing (I guess) that the Sox had a playoff run in them. The result was two years of lost time in executing the vision thus it would be more a case of vision delayed than vision changed.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 29, 2024 10:39:24 GMT -5
I don't understand how this organization faceplanted so bad. How does the vision of this franchise completely change a year later when that 1 year went exactly as everyone expected it to? It's not like the 2023 team had massive expectations and then things unraveled ala 2011. They were coming off of a 78 win season and let Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi leave, and the new guys they brought in did not make up for that loss in production. Heading into 2023, projection systems had them as a .500-ish team and finishing last in the division, which is exactly what happened. What was the vision a year ago and why wasn't it based on the team winning ~81 games? I just don't get how a franchise has 4 years to right the ship between trading Mookie and Devers' prime seasons, and this is what they come up with. That is a tweet, not an article, and I was tricked into thinking it was by Alex Speier but it isn't, and in fact it could have been written by a sub-replacement level internet commenter. The author literally uses "putrid" to describe last season...
To answer your question: the issue the team has had is that the farm system completely dried up, so they were *merely* able to go 10 games over .500 in the 2021-23 timeframe, with generally bad injury luck, while replenishing the farm. Now re-read this paragraph with that perspective in mind: Is there, perhaps, a more optimistic framing that might conceivably be applied here...?
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Post by puzzler on Feb 29, 2024 10:44:09 GMT -5
But is there really a change? Perhaps what happened - and what got Bloom fired - was a failure to carry out the vision which was: sell at the deadline in 2022 unless the playoff odds were high and restock the improving farm system to adjust payroll and gain assets to use on the field or in a trade. The same situation existed for 2023 because no progress was made in '22 and once again Bloom failed to execute believing (I guess) that the Sox had a playoff run in them. The result was two years of lost time in executing the vision thus it would be more a case of vision delayed than vision changed. Agreed - there has been no change. The issue is that Kenley's perception of the vision was wrong to begin with. (I don't know conversations he had with Bloom - but Bloom got fired and there is a new guy). I just don't know how as a player, you look at last season as, we're going for it and then look at this team and see any difference. He's upset that they haven't signed big free agents - but they didn't do that last year - apart from him and Martin. I think what he really means is, he thought last year's team would be better and it wasn't and so now that they haven't signed anyone of any 'significance' and have traded away a couple of vets that they are going to be worse or they aren't going to be better. Which is a view shared by many, I just think they are wrong.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 29, 2024 10:47:19 GMT -5
I don't understand how this organization faceplanted so bad. How does the vision of this franchise completely change a year later when that 1 year went exactly as everyone expected it to? It's not like the 2023 team had massive expectations and then things unraveled ala 2011. They were coming off of a 78 win season and let Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi leave, and the new guys they brought in did not make up for that loss in production. Heading into 2023, projection systems had them as a .500-ish team and finishing last in the division, which is exactly what happened. What was the vision a year ago and why wasn't it based on the team winning ~81 games? I just don't get how a franchise has 4 years to right the ship between trading Mookie and Devers' prime seasons, and this is what they come up with. If it was important for Kenley to sign somewhere competitive, it would be important for Boston to make the case to Kenley that they would be competitive. Maybe they really intended to be before now and were derailed, or maybe they just told him what he wanted to hear. Either way I'm not reading much into this. The 2021 team was two games from the WS and the 2022 team got hammered by injuries. Expecting the window to be open by 2024, year two of the Kenley deal, would not have been outrageous.
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Post by asm18 on Feb 29, 2024 10:47:22 GMT -5
That article itself is trying to paint Kenley like he's complaining or moping around, but I don't think that's the case. He literally says to Tara Sullivan at the end:
"Understanding that some other teams have bigger payrolls — not saying more talent, for you to be in the big leagues you got to have some kind of talent — but with more established players on other rosters, these guys are young and have to believe in themselves now. Step up and believe that they can compete. That can be my message.”
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Post by incandenza on Feb 29, 2024 10:50:28 GMT -5
That article itself is trying to paint Kenley like he's complaining or moping around. He literally says to Tara Sullivan at the end: "Understanding that some other teams have bigger payrolls — not saying more talent, for you to be in the big leagues you got to have some kind of talent — but with more established players on other rosters, these guys are young and have to believe in themselves now. Step up and believe that they can compete. That can be my message.” Good point. The article is written as if it's sympathetic to Jansen's perspective, or almost implies it's from Jansen's perspective, but actually makes him look pretty bad.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Feb 29, 2024 10:56:57 GMT -5
But is there really a change? Perhaps what happened - and what got Bloom fired - was a failure to carry out the vision which was: sell at the deadline in 2022 unless the playoff odds were high and restock the improving farm system to adjust payroll and gain assets to use on the field or in a trade. The same situation existed for 2023 because no progress was made in '22 and once again Bloom failed to execute believing (I guess) that the Sox had a playoff run in them. The result was two years of lost time in executing the vision thus it would be more a case of vision delayed than vision changed. Kenley is quoted as saying that the vision he was sold in December 2022 is different than it is now, so unless you think he is lying or making it up, yes it has changed. And judging by the absolutely atrocious offseason this team has had I have to think yes it has changed, because this can't have been the plan. How could the plan have been to go over the tax in 2022 and then run right around the tax in 23 - 2 years where the Sox fielded profoundly mediocre teams - only to then be $30 million (!) under the CBT heading into 2024? If you were to ask me to come up with a plan to come in last place every year in perpetuity, this is what I would come up with.
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Post by asm18 on Feb 29, 2024 11:02:58 GMT -5
That article itself is trying to paint Kenley like he's complaining or moping around. He literally says to Tara Sullivan at the end: "Understanding that some other teams have bigger payrolls — not saying more talent, for you to be in the big leagues you got to have some kind of talent — but with more established players on other rosters, these guys are young and have to believe in themselves now. Step up and believe that they can compete. That can be my message.” Good point. The article is written as if it's sympathetic to Jansen's perspective, or almost implies it's from Jansen's perspective, but actually makes him look pretty bad. If we only include what Jansen says, and not what is editorialized (and who knows, maybe some of this info was said to Sullivan on background), he is quoted as saying: He's been floated in trade rumors for months and is on a team that everyone and their mother expected to be more aggressive over the offseason - so I think can imagine why there may be some mixed feelings in his public comments. But his responses here are all fairly professional. What's going to be annoying is when there's like 50 aggregators online who take these quotes out of context to make him look like he's throwing a hissy fit when he's clearly not lol
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Post by puzzler on Feb 29, 2024 11:09:07 GMT -5
But is there really a change? Perhaps what happened - and what got Bloom fired - was a failure to carry out the vision which was: sell at the deadline in 2022 unless the playoff odds were high and restock the improving farm system to adjust payroll and gain assets to use on the field or in a trade. The same situation existed for 2023 because no progress was made in '22 and once again Bloom failed to execute believing (I guess) that the Sox had a playoff run in them. The result was two years of lost time in executing the vision thus it would be more a case of vision delayed than vision changed. Kenley is quoted as saying that the vision he was sold in December 2022 is different than it is now, so unless you think he is lying or making it up, yes it has changed. And judging by the absolutely atrocious offseason this team has had I have to think yes it has changed, because this can't have been the plan. How could the plan have been to go over the tax in 2022 and then run right around the tax in 23 - 2 years where the Sox fielded profoundly mediocre teams - only to then be $30 million (!) under the CBT heading into 2024? If you were to ask me to come up with a plan to come in last place every year in perpetuity, this is what I would come up with. People see/hear/interpret things differently. I don't know how you make a statement that says, so and so said this, so it must be true and keep a straight face. But let's say you're right and that Kenley didn't just hear what he wanted to hear; let's say the vision has changed. What exactly did he expect once Bloom was fired? That the new guy was going to do exactly what Bloom was planning to do? I would be more inclined to listen to 'this is not what they told me', if they was the exact same person.
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Post by wamderingdude on Feb 29, 2024 12:10:45 GMT -5
I think the vision probably did change, but is that a bad thing? You should change your vision and plans when you get new information, and it’s especially going to change when you bring in a new guy running the show. Maybe Chaim did think they were one offseason away from being a contender, but Breslow came in and looked at the pitching pipeline and said “we need to fix this before we think about contending.” I’d also be curious to see what they heard from other candidates when they interviewed for the CBO job. If Chaim and the FO thought they were a year away, but then every candidate came in and said no 2025 is the window that probably changes your view on the team as the owner right? Lying seems to imply they always knew how this would go, but it could have just been a simple situation of new information = new strategy. I feel bad for Kenley if he feels like he was lied too, but i don’t think he was, things just change.
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 29, 2024 12:20:22 GMT -5
The vision was probably Ohtani and Yamamoto—the two real difference-makers on the FA market who would have actually brought this team up a level—and it went out the window when they discovered that vision would cost a billion dollars. Not to mention those guys wanting to be in LA in the first place.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Feb 29, 2024 12:41:34 GMT -5
Kenley is quoted as saying that the vision he was sold in December 2022 is different than it is now, so unless you think he is lying or making it up, yes it has changed. And judging by the absolutely atrocious offseason this team has had I have to think yes it has changed, because this can't have been the plan. How could the plan have been to go over the tax in 2022 and then run right around the tax in 23 - 2 years where the Sox fielded profoundly mediocre teams - only to then be $30 million (!) under the CBT heading into 2024? If you were to ask me to come up with a plan to come in last place every year in perpetuity, this is what I would come up with. People see/hear/interpret things differently. I don't know how you make a statement that says, so and so said this, so it must be true and keep a straight face. But let's say you're right and that Kenley didn't just hear what he wanted to hear; let's say the vision has changed. What exactly did he expect once Bloom was fired? That the new guy was going to do exactly what Bloom was planning to do? I would be more inclined to listen to 'this is not what they told me', if they was the exact same person. It's one thing if a new head of baseball ops has a different approach to player development, or maybe certain things they look for in players they are acquiring. It is completely different to bring in an executive who wants to do a 180 about-face. If that is actually the case - Bloom looked at this org and believed 2024 was the year he was going to let rip, Breslow looks at the org and sees a bridge year - then everyone should be even more outraged than they are. To have your 2 executives look at the exact same group of players and come to wildly different conclusions is just insane. There is no way a ~$5 billion franchise should be that capricious.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Feb 29, 2024 12:43:20 GMT -5
I think the vision probably did change, but is that a bad thing? You should change your vision and plans when you get new information, and it’s especially going to change when you bring in a new guy running the show. Maybe Chaim did think they were one offseason away from being a contender, but Breslow came in and looked at the pitching pipeline and said “we need to fix this before we think about contending.” I’d also be curious to see what they heard from other candidates when they interviewed for the CBO job. If Chaim and the FO thought they were a year away, but then every candidate came in and said no 2025 is the window that probably changes your view on the team as the owner right? Lying seems to imply they always knew how this would go, but it could have just been a simple situation of new information = new strategy. I feel bad for Kenley if he feels like he was lied too, but i don’t think he was, things just change. What new information do the Sox have now that they didn't have a year ago? 2023 played out exactly as everyone thought! It's like rolling 2 dice and being surprised that a 7 came up. How is that new information?
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Post by wamderingdude on Feb 29, 2024 12:50:51 GMT -5
I think the vision probably did change, but is that a bad thing? You should change your vision and plans when you get new information, and it’s especially going to change when you bring in a new guy running the show. Maybe Chaim did think they were one offseason away from being a contender, but Breslow came in and looked at the pitching pipeline and said “we need to fix this before we think about contending.” I’d also be curious to see what they heard from other candidates when they interviewed for the CBO job. If Chaim and the FO thought they were a year away, but then every candidate came in and said no 2025 is the window that probably changes your view on the team as the owner right? Lying seems to imply they always knew how this would go, but it could have just been a simple situation of new information = new strategy. I feel bad for Kenley if he feels like he was lied too, but i don’t think he was, things just change. What new information do the Sox have now that they didn't have a year ago? 2023 played out exactly as everyone thought! It's like rolling 2 dice and being surprised that a 7 came up. How is that new information? I very much do not think the Red Sox thought they would win 78 games last season. You can debate whether they should have or not but if they did, not selling at the deadline looks even worse. They also thought they were going to have a fully healthy trevor story at the time of signing Kenley. If we take what Kenley said and the hints that were dropped about Chaim wanting to make bigger moves this offseason, my opinion is they thought they were a fringe playoff team last year (85ish wins) and were one or two players away from being a contender this year and that didn’t come to fruition.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Feb 29, 2024 13:22:49 GMT -5
What new information do the Sox have now that they didn't have a year ago? 2023 played out exactly as everyone thought! It's like rolling 2 dice and being surprised that a 7 came up. How is that new information? I very much do not think the Red Sox thought they would win 78 games last season. You can debate whether they should have or not but if they did, not selling at the deadline looks even worse. They also thought they were going to have a fully healthy trevor story at the time of signing Kenley. If we take what Kenley said and the hints that were dropped about Chaim wanting to make bigger moves this offseason, my opinion is they thought they were a fringe playoff team last year (85ish wins) and were one or two players away from being a contender this year and that didn’t come to fruition. Said it before but it bears repeating: being delusional about how competitive your team can be is a recipe for mediocrity year in and year out. I seriously hope this isn't the case.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 29, 2024 13:24:55 GMT -5
I very much do not think the Red Sox thought they would win 78 games last season. You can debate whether they should have or not but if they did, not selling at the deadline looks even worse. They also thought they were going to have a fully healthy trevor story at the time of signing Kenley. If we take what Kenley said and the hints that were dropped about Chaim wanting to make bigger moves this offseason, my opinion is they thought they were a fringe playoff team last year (85ish wins) and were one or two players away from being a contender this year and that didn’t come to fruition. Said it before but it bears repeating: being delusional about how competitive your team can be is a recipe for mediocrity year in and year out. I seriously hope this isn't the case. Believing they were better than a 78 win team was not delusional at all. 1) The projections thought they were better. 2) They signed Kenley when they still had Trevor Story as short stop. 3) Even still, they were significantly better than that for virtually the whole season until the wheels fell off in an unpredictably dramatic way in September.
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badfishnbc
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Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
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Post by badfishnbc on Feb 29, 2024 13:30:27 GMT -5
Have they considered offering student tickets?
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Post by bishop on Feb 29, 2024 13:40:48 GMT -5
People see/hear/interpret things differently. I don't know how you make a statement that says, so and so said this, so it must be true and keep a straight face. But let's say you're right and that Kenley didn't just hear what he wanted to hear; let's say the vision has changed. What exactly did he expect once Bloom was fired? That the new guy was going to do exactly what Bloom was planning to do? I would be more inclined to listen to 'this is not what they told me', if they was the exact same person. It's one thing if a new head of baseball ops has a different approach to player development, or maybe certain things they look for in players they are acquiring. It is completely different to bring in an executive who wants to do a 180 about-face. If that is actually the case - Bloom looked at this org and believed 2024 was the year he was going to let rip, Breslow looks at the org and sees a bridge year - then everyone should be even more outraged than they are. To have your 2 executives look at the exact same group of players and come to wildly different conclusions is just insane. There is no way a ~$5 billion franchise should be that capricious. Part of me wants to say if Bloom or someone was selling Jansen we were a serious contender last year when we opened the season with Corey Kluber as the opening day starter and Kiké Hernandez/Christian Arroyo starting in the middle infield they were delusional or lying, but we were also 69-61 on August 27 before things fell apart. The 9-23 finish left a bad taste in everyone's mouths but people are treating it like our pets heads are falling off and we were the Rockies or Athletics. I actually think we have done 180's as an organization twice in the last decade - once when Dombrowski was hired, once when Dombrowski was no mas, but I don't think Bloom to Breslow is a massive shift. Bloom did a good job in many places and the lack of upper levels depth hurt us, but he was just bad at major league roster construction in my opinion. Kiké as a starting shortstop should have been Plan Q or something not an opening day plan once Story went under the knife in January, while IMO Breslow has done a nice job plugging some holes and moving some parts around so the 26 man roster fits a lot better even if it's still lacking the star acquisitions.
Re: Jansen himself he seems fine when you look at his actual quotes not the editorializing around them. Maybe he will get traded before the season, maybe he will in July, maybe we'll slightly outperform expectations and he'll enjoy being a clubhouse leader for a wild card contender. Props to the writer and even Speier for the quote he pulled out, throwing that red meat to the fanbase gets them going and drives the clicks these days.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Feb 29, 2024 13:44:26 GMT -5
Said it before but it bears repeating: being delusional about how competitive your team can be is a recipe for mediocrity year in and year out. I seriously hope this isn't the case. Believing they were better than a 78 win team was not delusional at all. 1) The projections thought they were better. 2) They signed Kenley when they still had Trevor Story as short stop. 3) Even still, they were significantly better than that for virtually the whole season until the wheels fell off in an unpredictably dramatic way in September. Here is how ZiPS projected the AL East in February of last year:
Here is what PECOTA projected for the AL East in February of last year:
How can you possibly say it isn't delusional to think they are better than this? Expecting your team to outperform projection systems is the definition of delusional. That doesn't mean it can't happen - obviously teams can and do outperform projections - but if you are not building your team around the expected outcome you are just digging yourself into a hole. Down years need to be used to improve the future team, and the first step in doing that is knowing *when* you are going to have a down year. That is where projection systems come into play. Anytime you aren't using a down year to rebuild, you are delaying your competitive window further into the future. The 2024 team is worse off because of the steps that were taken in 2021, 2022 and 2023.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 29, 2024 13:54:36 GMT -5
Believing they were better than a 78 win team was not delusional at all. 1) The projections thought they were better. 2) They signed Kenley when they still had Trevor Story as short stop. 3) Even still, they were significantly better than that for virtually the whole season until the wheels fell off in an unpredictably dramatic way in September. Here is how ZiPS projected the AL East in February of last year:
Here is what PECOTA projected for the AL East in February of last year:
How can you possibly say it isn't delusional to think they are better than this? Expecting your team to outperform projection systems is the definition of delusional. That doesn't mean it can't happen - obviously teams can and do outperform projections - but if you are not building your team around the expected outcome you are just digging yourself into a hole. Down years need to be used to improve the future team, and the first step in doing that is knowing *when* you are going to have a down year. That is where projection systems come into play. Anytime you aren't using a down year to rebuild, you are delaying your competitive window further into the future. The 2024 team is worse off because of the steps that were taken in 2021, 2022 and 2023. We don't know what their internal projections said, and again these were after, I believe, Story's injury. It's also not delusional if they were right, which they were for the entire season until September. Even putting that aside, say they bought into the projections, it's also not outrageous to try to compete at the start of the year with 25% playoff odds. I'd much rather they do that and have a rebuild take an extra year than fully tank and put up a 60 win season. As far as Kenley's statement goes, he doesn't seem upset as much by the results of 2023 as the fact that they didn't spend a bunch of money this offseason following that, so I don't really get why what he's saying is controversial. The plan clearly changed, they were going to spend a lot of money to compete this year and then they didn't, but this isn't surprising either given they fired the guy who seemingly told him they were going to do that.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 29, 2024 14:01:46 GMT -5
The entire complaint about spending and trying to be competitive - whether it is coming from Kenley Jansen or Tara Sullivan or ~50% of the commenters here - seems predicated on the idea that the team isn't going to sign Jordan Montgomery, which would be a "major addition" of a "star player" and would bring them up close to the CBT. It is also being widely predicted at the moment that the Red Sox are going to sign Jordan Montgomery.
I'm not sure that it makes a lot of sense to judge the entire course of the organization by whether or not they sign this particular #3 starter, but if you're going to take that position it seems to me that the time to complain about it would be when the team actually fails to sign Jordan Montgomery.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 29, 2024 14:19:26 GMT -5
The reality is these projection systems are not to be taken as gospel. In fact they got too much wrong, again, for too much of the League to proclaim them as gospel.
Sorry to perseverate but projections are as accurate as the information they are given and this information is accurate only in that specific window of time. In sports they simply can’t account for injuries, player mind sets, mechanical lapses, coaching blunders, fatigue, diet, inter-personal relations, family issues, etc. which influence performance over 162 games. This is true regarding performance in any profession. The human elements of doing any job.
I know. Numbers don’t lie. But I have sat in board rooms where those presenting projections do, intentionally or not; confidently presenting/inputting what they really don’t have accurate information on. Projections are guides, not gospel
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