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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 28, 2024 7:11:22 GMT -5
Fangraphs did their crowd source free agent predictions thing in 4 of the last 5 seasons (not 2022 for some reason). The crowd usually has the right general idea but reliably underestimates the final contracts. 26 times they've projected a contract of more than $70 million, and only 6 times have they overestimated:
Dallas Keuchel (2020): projected 70.4 million; actual 55.5 million Carlos Correa (2023): 256 million/200 million Cody Bellinger (2024): 144 million/80 million Blake Snell (2024): 125 million/62 million Jordan Montgomery (2024): 105 million/25 million Matt Chapman (2024): 80 million/54 million
Every one of those guys is a Boras client.
But he also got some of biggest overpays in that time period, like Bogaerts and Cole. He takes a high-risk approach, which benefits him, since he can spread the risk around; and sometimes it works out for his clients. But he has a much higher failure rate than any other agent. You could say he's really the only agent, in fact, who's screwed up the job of getting a good deal for top-tier free agents, and he's done it a number of times
Does make you wonder if perhaps some of the good but not great players looking to secure their bag in FA might think twice on sticking with Boras. It seems to me that that in the last few years Boras' bottom dollar pretty much evens out since he gets the mega contracts with the elite players and if he loses money/years for the merely good FAs with his wait it out approach it doesn't really hurt his bank account that much but obviously he didn't do these guys any favors with his approach.
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Post by dcb26 on Mar 28, 2024 8:51:48 GMT -5
Fangraphs did their crowd source free agent predictions thing in 4 of the last 5 seasons (not 2022 for some reason). The crowd usually has the right general idea but reliably underestimates the final contracts. 26 times they've projected a contract of more than $70 million, and only 6 times have they overestimated: Dallas Keuchel (2020): projected 70.4 million; actual 55.5 million Carlos Correa (2023): 256 million/200 million Cody Bellinger (2024): 144 million/80 million Blake Snell (2024): 125 million/62 million Jordan Montgomery (2024): 105 million/25 million Matt Chapman (2024): 80 million/54 million Every one of those guys is a Boras client. But he also got some of biggest overpays in that time period, like Bogaerts and Cole. He takes a high-risk approach, which benefits him, since he can spread the risk around; and sometimes it works out for his clients. But he has a much higher failure rate than any other agent. You could say he's really the only agent, in fact, who's screwed up the job of getting a good deal for top-tier free agents, and he's done it a number of times
I definitely think this bears watching going forward, as the 2024 contracts are hard to ignore - will be interesting to see if this continues in future offseasons, is it just Boras clients, etc. - but prior to this year I don't really see it. Correa had obvious extenuating circumstances and at least personally I was shocked he got as much as he did when all was said and done. Coming 15 million short of Dallas Keuchel's crowd-source projection doesn't seem all that damming to me, especially in light of the huge deals Boras clients *have* signed in the past few years. I'll admit I'm biased in the sense that I have felt for a long time that people have been desperate to generate ways to minimize Boras' accomplishments as an agent rather than just accepting how he operates, so maybe my perception is a bit skewed here. I would love to know how other agents feel about things at this point - glad to see their top competitor knocked down a peg, or worried that this is going to be a universal practice going forward?
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Post by incandenza on Mar 28, 2024 9:07:24 GMT -5
Boras got Correa a one-year deal on a not especially high AAV, which backfired on Correa but worked out great for Boras, who was able to take a big commission on the long-term contract Correa eventually did sign after having switched agents. The whole Correa thing is Exhibit A of how Boras places his own interests ahead of his clients'.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 28, 2024 9:10:57 GMT -5
All his guys signed the Carlos Correa deal this year, which is at least evidence that there wasn't anything unethical about Carlos Correa signing it
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Post by dcb26 on Mar 28, 2024 9:15:21 GMT -5
Boras got Correa a one-year deal on a not especially high AAV, which backfired on Correa but worked out great for Boras, who was able to take a big commission on the long-term contract Correa eventually did sign after having switched agents. The whole Correa thing is Exhibit A of how Boras places his own interests ahead of his clients'. I mean, it backfired if there was a larger deal out there for Correa than the sum of that one-year deal and then the long-term one he ended up signing. Do we know that? (honest question.) It also seems likely to me that even before that one-year deal there were questions about his health and how he would hold up which impacted his value. At any rate I was referring to the deal you referenced in your post, as by that point the medical situation was definitely known to all teams
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Post by incandenza on Mar 28, 2024 9:29:18 GMT -5
No one ever buys my theory about the Boras/Correa thing, even though it seems completely obvious to me that the inventives were aligned for him to benefit, and for Correa to be hurt, by his doing precisely what he did. So I'm not going to argue the point further. As to whether Correa could have done better: well, he signed a 1/35 deal in the same offseason that Seager signed 10/325. MLBTR originally projected 10/320 for Correa while projecting 10/305 for Seager. Ben Clemens and the fangraphs crowd source also both projected Correa to get more than Seager. In the end Correa got 235 million between his two contracts. So I'd say it's highly likely he could have done better if he hadn't taken the one-year deal.
Regardless, the point stands that top-tier free agents simply don't ever underperform the fangraphs crowd source projections - other than several Boras clients. Whether that's solely a story about this offseason or a pattern that goes back a few years is debatable.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 28, 2024 9:32:04 GMT -5
No one ever buys my theory about the Boras/Correa thing, even though it seems completely obvious to me that the inventives were aligned for him to benefit, and for Correa to be hurt, by his doing precisely what he did. So I'm not going to argue the point further. But the point stands that top-tier free agents simply don't ever underperform the fangraphs crowd source projections - other than several Boras clients. Whether that's solely a story about this offseason or a pattern that goes back a few years is debatable. In regards to the Correa/Boras thing, didn't Correa have a mega deal or close to it with San Fran but they backed out of it due to his ankle? While I don't think Boras did Correa any favors in the end it did seem like Boras did his job well for Correa until the Giants saw his medicals.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 28, 2024 9:36:17 GMT -5
No one ever buys my theory about the Boras/Correa thing, even though it seems completely obvious to me that the inventives were aligned for him to benefit, and for Correa to be hurt, by his doing precisely what he did. So I'm not going to argue the point further. But the point stands that top-tier free agents simply don't ever underperform the fangraphs crowd source projections - other than several Boras clients. Whether that's solely a story about this offseason or a pattern that goes back a few years is debatable. In regards to the Correa/Boras thing, didn't Correa have a mega deal or close to it with San Fran but they backed out of it due to his ankle? While I don't think Boras did Correa any favors in the end it did seem like Boras did his job well for Correa until the Giants saw his medicals. But that's the whole point - by pushing Correa's free agency forward a year with that one-year deal, Boras took a risk that Correa's value might decline due to injury or whatever. Evidently that's exactly what happened.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 28, 2024 10:29:35 GMT -5
Wander Franco's suspension extended through June 1st
For now
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 28, 2024 10:43:11 GMT -5
Wander Franco's suspension extended through June 1st For now If they ever let him play again it’s a disgrace. The MLB is already way too lenient with domestic abuse, but this is even worse. The game of baseball is way bigger than these guys and doesn’t need them in the slightest. I wish they’d start sending a clearer message via lifetime bans.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Mar 28, 2024 10:52:00 GMT -5
Thinking back to the reports from yesterday about how the Mets and Yankees were still engaging on Montgomery, and the Yankees saw him as similar value to "Eduardo Rodriguez's 4/80 contract" and realizing now that that was Boras' last gasp. True. Montgomery was supposedly deciding between “multiple long-term offers” just yesterday. Jon Heyman can only peddle so much misinformation. Fitting that a Boras mouthpiece produced Boras's last gasp. I'm just glad Monty didn't sign this deal with the MFYs, for their fans especially. I would've been fine with those terms for the Sox (I actually would've preferred something a little north of the E-Rod deal, to extend deeper into the Sox' opening window) but without him we still have a promising stable of up-and-coming rotation arms (although still holding my breath on Houck vs. LHH, especially 2nd time through). MFY have set themselves up for a disaster in the rotation and Monty would've really helped them. Lots of reports that bridges were burned on his way out of the Bronx ( with Cashman?? really??). So sweet to see it come back to bite them in the behind so quickly.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 28, 2024 12:10:26 GMT -5
Taylor Trammell out of options and DFA'ed. Doesn't make sense for this team but he's an interesting one
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 28, 2024 12:16:24 GMT -5
Blue Jays DFA'ed their #12 prospect (per BA) RHP Yosver Zulueta. Seems like someone teams will take a flier on.
ADD: apparently the Reds claimed him.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 28, 2024 12:34:31 GMT -5
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trotman
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Post by trotman on Mar 28, 2024 12:41:38 GMT -5
Checking different starting lineups now that they're posted. Anthony Rendon is leading off for the Angels with you guessed it hitting second, Aaron Hicks! Trout is batting 3rd. What a weird team. Since it's baseball that probably means Burnes will get lit up by a Sano slam.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Mar 28, 2024 14:26:14 GMT -5
Cotillo and Speier have both floated Burnes as someone the Sox might spend big money on next year. I won’t hold my breath given how this offseason went, but it’ll be very interesting to see how he fares in the AL East.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 28, 2024 14:35:39 GMT -5
Cotillo and Speier have both floated Burnes as someone the Sox might spend big money on next year. I won’t hold my breath given how this offseason went, but it’ll be very interesting to see how he fares in the AL East. Same as you not something to hold our breath on but the fact both Cotillo and Speier both said hey maybe keep an eye out for them making this type of move next year gives me at least a glimmer of hope. Who knows things falls into place in the rotation this year and they drop a bonafide ace at the top of the rotation and all of a sudden we might be talking WS caliber roster.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Mar 28, 2024 15:29:26 GMT -5
Wander Franco's suspension extended through June 1st For now If they ever let him play again it’s a disgrace. The MLB is already way too lenient with domestic abuse, but this is even worse. The game of baseball is way bigger than these guys and doesn’t need them in the slightest. I wish they’d start sending a clearer message via lifetime bans. Probably just waiting for the conviction He’s not going to be allowed back in the US anyway, they won’t need to ban him
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 28, 2024 15:52:12 GMT -5
From what I am gathering Nestor Cortes not exactly coming out of the gates hot this year. Boy you really hate to see that..
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vokuhila
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Post by vokuhila on Mar 28, 2024 15:55:18 GMT -5
Blue Jays DFA'ed their #12 prospect (per BA) RHP Yosver Zulueta. Seems like someone teams will take a flier on. ADD: apparently the Reds claimed him. Reds had a better record in '23...so the RedSox passed on Zulueta?! That's a surprise
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 28, 2024 16:11:48 GMT -5
Royce Lewis hurt on opening day. He’s so talented but his injury issues are insane
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Post by kevfc89 on Mar 28, 2024 16:15:46 GMT -5
3 GiDPs for the Yankees in 4 innings...the most recent by Verdugo with the bases loaded.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 28, 2024 16:24:23 GMT -5
Royce Lewis hurt on opening day. He’s so talented but his injury issues are insane HR off maybe the nastiest pitcher in baseball, injured an hour later. Royce Lewis in a nutshell
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Post by pappyman99 on Mar 28, 2024 16:41:30 GMT -5
I still can’t fathom how projections and Vegas projected the Yankees over the Os for the division?
Lineups not even comparable, Os dominate 1-9, rotation Os are pretty good especially if Rodriguez takes the next step
Bullpen even without Bautista the Os are still dominate
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Post by yuchangclan on Mar 28, 2024 16:46:38 GMT -5
3 GiDPs for the Yankees in 4 innings...the most recent by Verdugo with the bases loaded. Verdugo then grounded out with the bases loaded to end the 5th! He’s stranded a small village today. I could never stand Verdugo with the Sox, but it feels much more natural disliking him in a Yankees uniform.
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