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Post by incandenza on Mar 26, 2024 22:46:36 GMT -5
Thinking back to the reports from yesterday about how the Mets and Yankees were still engaging on Montgomery, and the Yankees saw him as similar value to "Eduardo Rodriguez's 4/80 contract" and realizing now that that was Boras' last gasp.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 26, 2024 22:48:32 GMT -5
Accounting for situation, that's one of the worst deals I've ever seen a guy get in free agency. At least with Snell, if he puts up a big season then he's answered some of those consistency questions and he's freed himself from the QO. He'd be up for a potentially bigger payday. But Montgomery? Hard to see any situation where he's more in demand than he was this winter.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Mar 26, 2024 22:53:49 GMT -5
Father Time never loses, everybody has a shelf life. Boras just doesn’t seem to be as sharp as he used to be
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Post by yuchangclan on Mar 26, 2024 22:58:21 GMT -5
Thinking back to the reports from yesterday about how the Mets and Yankees were still engaging on Montgomery, and the Yankees saw him as similar value to "Eduardo Rodriguez's 4/80 contract" and realizing now that that was Boras' last gasp. True. Montgomery was supposedly deciding between “multiple long-term offers” just yesterday. Jon Heyman can only peddle so much misinformation.
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Post by bishop on Mar 27, 2024 10:33:45 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure the Sox would have been slightly over the tax line if they gave him this deal, but they could definitely have found a way to get under. I wish I knew why they didn't want to match this. Feels like they either have cashflow issues or they believe *a lot* in the guys already on the roster.
I think we like our guys a lot more than the national consensus, but if we believed in them that much we wouldn't have signed Giolito. Once he got hurt I'm baffled why we didn't want Montgomery at that number or even something a little more like giving him a 3rd year player option, but I'm also baffled why the Yankees didn't want him at that number, and the Rangers didn't want him at that number, and 25 other teams didn't want him at that number. Unless there's some reason like an underlying injury or he only wanted to go to Arizona or a very small number of teams this does feel like teams "colluded" because they're tired of Boras's games. Sucks for the 3 and especially Jordan, but maybe this pushback was necessary and "we'd like players to sign early enough they're ready for opening day" seems like a pretty reasonable soft deadline. Will be interesting to see if any players leave Boras or how he changes tactics next offseason.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 27, 2024 11:05:33 GMT -5
Matt McClain had surgery for a torn labrum
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vokuhila
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Post by vokuhila on Mar 27, 2024 11:31:30 GMT -5
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Post by 0ap0 on Mar 27, 2024 11:47:54 GMT -5
AL East is going to be scary awesome for a long time FTFY. So long as Henry doesn't let us get left behind, AL East is the place to be when it's firing on all cylinders.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 27, 2024 11:58:26 GMT -5
Pretty wild the Red Sox didn't match this. They can easily free up 2-3 million.
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Post by patford on Mar 27, 2024 12:03:29 GMT -5
Pretty wild the Red Sox didn't match this. They can easily free up 2-3 million. Seems there was very little interest in Montgomery from anyone. Maybe there are concerns we don't know about?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 27, 2024 12:37:58 GMT -5
Pretty wild the Red Sox didn't match this. They can easily free up 2-3 million. Seems there was very little interest in Montgomery from anyone. Maybe there are concerns we don't know about? I can't imagine that their concerns would be greater than a 1-year deal where you don't go over the luxury and don't lose a draft pick. Montgomery is going to be better than at least 3 of their starters. Someone is already in the rotation that shouldn't have been.
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Post by patford on Mar 27, 2024 13:02:47 GMT -5
Seems there was very little interest in Montgomery from anyone. Maybe there are concerns we don't know about? I can't imagine that their concerns would be greater than a 1-year deal where you don't go over the luxury and don't lose a draft pick. Montgomery is going to be better than at least 3 of their starters. Someone is already in the rotation that shouldn't have been. I was talking about the Yankees. In which case he would be better than all five of their starters.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 27, 2024 13:10:55 GMT -5
I can't imagine that their concerns would be greater than a 1-year deal where you don't go over the luxury and don't lose a draft pick. Montgomery is going to be better than at least 3 of their starters. Someone is already in the rotation that shouldn't have been. I was talking about the Yankees. In which case he would be better than all five of their starters. Weird for them too. Though for them Montgomery would also have a 110% tax to every dollar on his contract. This was true for Snell, so I imagine it's true for Montgomery that they would have lost two draft picks and $1 million from their international signing pool on top of the 110% tax.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 27, 2024 13:29:33 GMT -5
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 27, 2024 13:30:19 GMT -5
Yankees traded John Cruz, 18 y/o OF coming off a strong FCL season with some hype, for Joe Berti who is old but still only on his 5th year of control
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 27, 2024 13:43:40 GMT -5
He will certainly be getting jiggy with it.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 27, 2024 13:50:37 GMT -5
interesting deal. On the surface it seems really team friendly. Buying out 2 arb years then 8 FA years for $140M seems light for a guy averaging 4 WAR the past 3 years. But he’s already 28 and as a catcher I doubt he has that many years left in the tank either.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 27, 2024 13:58:22 GMT -5
If that deal does not include 2024 then they're paying 9/~125 for his free agent years starting with his age 31 season which ZiPS currently projects for 3.8 WAR. Spreadsheets are likely to predict a pretty steep decline from that point on though. Looks like a solid but unspectacular deal for the Dodgers.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 27, 2024 14:00:49 GMT -5
The will Smith deal seems kind of unnecessary to me for the dodgers. Don't know about signing a C until their late 30s. They also have rushing and cartaya for C prospects so it's not like they don't have options in a few years when Smith was ready to hit FA. I guess for 14M AAV it probably won't hurt the dodgers much if the wheels fall odd mid to late of that deal though.
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orion09
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Post by orion09 on Mar 27, 2024 14:34:12 GMT -5
Not sure if it’s been mentioned, but Montgomery will start the season in the minors to ramp up, so he won’t be eligible for a QO after the season.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 27, 2024 14:57:22 GMT -5
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 27, 2024 15:03:02 GMT -5
Marcelo Mayer counterfactual draft picks having a bad day
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Post by yuchangclan on Mar 27, 2024 15:18:10 GMT -5
The will Smith deal seems kind of unnecessary to me for the dodgers. Don't know about signing a C until their late 30s. They also have rushing and cartaya for C prospects so it's not like they don't have options in a few years when Smith was ready to hit FA. I guess for 14M AAV it probably won't hurt the dodgers much if the wheels fall odd mid to late of that deal though. Smith has already had some concussion issues, as well, so he wouldn’t seem to be the long-term solution at catcher anyway. He might have a future as a 1B once the Freeman deal is off the books.
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Post by yuchangclan on Mar 27, 2024 15:20:43 GMT -5
I was talking about the Yankees. In which case he would be better than all five of their starters. Weird for them too. Though for them Montgomery would also have a 110% tax to every dollar on his contract. This was true for Snell, so I imagine it's true for Montgomery that they would have lost two draft picks and $1 million from their international signing pool on top of the 110% tax. The Yankees were never going to sign Montgomery anyway(and Montgomery didn’t want to go there). There is bad blood on both sides of that equation.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 28, 2024 7:06:22 GMT -5
Fangraphs did their crowd source free agent predictions thing in 4 of the last 5 seasons (not 2022 for some reason). The crowd usually has the right general idea but reliably underestimates the final contracts. 26 times they've projected a contract of more than $70 million, and only 6 times have they overestimated:
Dallas Keuchel (2020): projected 70.4 million; actual 55.5 million Carlos Correa (2023): 256 million/200 million Cody Bellinger (2024): 144 million/80 million Blake Snell (2024): 125 million/62 million Jordan Montgomery (2024): 105 million/25 million Matt Chapman (2024): 80 million/54 million
Every one of those guys is a Boras client.
But he also got some of biggest overpays in that time period, like Bogaerts and Cole. He takes a high-risk approach, which benefits him, since he can spread the risk around; and sometimes it works out for his clients. But he has a much higher failure rate than any other agent. You could say he's really the only agent, in fact, who's screwed up the job of getting a good deal for top-tier free agents, and he's done it a number of times
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