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4/15-4/18 Red Sox vs. Guardians Series Thread
keninten
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Post by keninten on Apr 15, 2024 21:50:49 GMT -5
Not sure if this is the right place for this, but I believe that Rafaela to SS is the right move for this year, it may take him a week or two to get re-accustomed to playing the position regularly, but I think it is very likely that over the course of the season he plays well above average defensively. The Red Sox were playing well on the strength of excellent pitching and solid defense before Story was hurt, hopefully Rafaela at SS regularly will help the Sox re-establish some consistency in the field. The offense has been up and down so far, it is likely that Devers shoulder has affected his offense, hopefully this is something that will heal up soon, he has to be a presence in this offense for it to really excel. I’m hopeful that the returns of Grissom and Refsnyder add a boost to the offense as well. Valdez has had a couple of big hits but has been mostly a black hole offensively, if Grissom can provide even average production it would be a boost. Refsnyder will almost certainly provide some help vs LHP. I thought the bullpen would be a strength, but a combination of some injuries, starters not going very deep in games, and bad defense has made it a concern. Things might be really bad if not for Slaten. There appears to be some interesting arms in AAA that might be able to provide some help if needed. Hopefully Martin and Jansen can get healthy soon, but at their age it wouldn’t be surprising if they both have to manage injuries all season. The starters have been great, it would be helpful for them if the defense steps up, and if that happens maybe they can provide an extra inning per start and help the pen out. It s difficult to argue with the success Bailey has had, but I do have some doubts that this staff can go through a full season utilizing the 4 seam fastball so infrequently. I wouldn’t mind being wrong about this, or maybe the plan is to start using that pitch a little more as the season goes on, but it feels like just adding in a few of them here and there could keep opposing hitters off balance a little more. Ever the optimist, I still think that if this team can get healthy and stay relatively healthy the rest of the way, they can contend for a playoff spot. Rafaela should be at SS. It comes down too moving Duran to CF or Hamilton and whomever at SS. I think Campbell is going to be a big part of the pen.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 16, 2024 4:33:42 GMT -5
Which Red Sox player had 3 PA yesterday, and had EV's of 100.3, 101.7, and 102.5, in that order?
Yup, the new maybe-shortstop.
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It seems ludicrous to declare a 6-0 loss to be a coin toss plus bad luck, but the more I look into the details the more convinced I am that it's true. It's too close to my bedtime (5:30 AM) to break it down now, but if anyone cares, let me know. Teaser trailer: which team's bullpen gave up 7 lucky or cheap hits, versus one by the opposition?
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Post by johnsilver52 on Apr 16, 2024 5:08:13 GMT -5
Hamilton had a great backhanded play deep in the hole yesterday in the LAA finale. Both him and Valdez will flash something above average, which is frankly more confusing than a guy with no range or who never flashes anything beyond below average or well below average. I thought Valdez had some nice turns when he was paired with Story. Valdez is capable of playing an average defensive 2b and has shown the last year + of getting key hits in clutch situations. Hamilton, on the other hand was put on the 40 man roster originally because the bases were enlarged, making his speed an asset, but he cannot steal 1b and his hitting ability in general, along with pitch selection leave much to be desired. Yes, he's ok on the defensive side, but awful on the offensive side, regardless of the situation and now, just like when he was originally added to the 40 man see no reason for him to be taking up a spot.
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Post by pappyman99 on Apr 16, 2024 5:15:47 GMT -5
Which Red Sox player had 3 PA yesterday, and had EV's of 100.3, 101.7, and 102.5, in that order?
Yup, the new maybe-shortstop.
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It seems ludicrous to declare a 6-0 loss to be a coin toss plus bad luck, but the more I look into the details the more convinced I am that it's true. It's too close to my bedtime (5:30 AM) to break it down now, but if anyone cares, let me know. Teaser trailer: which team's bullpen gave up 7 lucky or cheap hits, versus one by the opposition?
That’s just baseball though it’s relatively all evens out over a season
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Post by asm18 on Apr 16, 2024 8:43:31 GMT -5
Hamilton had a great backhanded play deep in the hole yesterday in the LAA finale. Both him and Valdez will flash something above average, which is frankly more confusing than a guy with no range or who never flashes anything beyond below average or well below average. I thought Valdez had some nice turns when he was paired with Story. Valdez is capable of playing an average defensive 2b and has shown the last year + of getting key hits in clutch situations. Hamilton, on the other hand was put on the 40 man roster originally because the bases were enlarged, making his speed an asset, but he cannot steal 1b and his hitting ability in general, along with pitch selection leave much to be desired. Yes, he's ok on the defensive side, but awful on the offensive side, regardless of the situation and now, just like when he was originally added to the 40 man see no reason for him to be taking up a spot. Is Valdez good offensively though? He's had some majestic bombs, but through ~200 PA of his (admittedly very short so far) MLB career: .232/.277/.398 slash line with a 78 wRC+. If you filter solely vs righties, it's a career 93 wRC+ which isn't terrible but not what you want out of a platoon bat who doesn't field very well. He doesn't really walk (5.4%), and isn't exactly a contact machine. It's very early in general right now, but not ideal.
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Post by manfred on Apr 16, 2024 8:49:00 GMT -5
Which Red Sox player had 3 PA yesterday, and had EV's of 100.3, 101.7, and 102.5, in that order?
Yup, the new maybe-shortstop.
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It seems ludicrous to declare a 6-0 loss to be a coin toss plus bad luck, but the more I look into the details the more convinced I am that it's true. It's too close to my bedtime (5:30 AM) to break it down now, but if anyone cares, let me know. Teaser trailer: which team's bullpen gave up 7 lucky or cheap hits, versus one by the opposition?
That’s just baseball though it’s relatively all evens out over a season There is nothing better than watching three hours of drubbing and being told later it was actually xfun (fun when adjusted by bad luck).
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Post by incandenza on Apr 16, 2024 9:11:17 GMT -5
That’s just baseball though it’s relatively all evens out over a season There is nothing better than watching three hours of drubbing and being told later it was actually xfun (fun when adjusted by bad luck). It's just a way of describing what happened in the game. Or was there a part in eric's comment where he said it was actually fun to watch the team be unlucky for three hours?
I got radicalized about all this during Eduardo Rodriguez's heinously unlucky 7-game stretch in 2021. I could see with my own eyes that he was being exceedingly unlucky. Though his ERA was garbage, the x-stats backed that up. And but SO many people - Dave O'Brien excruciatingly chief among them - went on and on about how poorly he was pitching, about how he needed to be better. For all the talk about "I only care about what happens on the field," it seems to me that people who reject probabilistic thinking are making it harder for themselves to see what's actually in front of their faces.
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Post by rhswanzey on Apr 16, 2024 9:23:58 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Apr 16, 2024 9:38:08 GMT -5
Expected stats make an imperfect attempt to express probabilistic outcomes. Traditional stats don't even try.
But probabilistic thinking seems to help people evaluate the actual quality of play on the field regardless of outcomes. Whereas if you only care about outcomes you're going to miss that. E.g., see discussion about Rafaela's 0-3 yesterday.
(Thanks for that highlight, by the way; that brightened my morning.)
ADD: By the way, my theory about this is that traditional stats weren't originally meant to describe the quality of play on the field. Their purpose was narrative - to say "here's what happened in the game." Sort of an outgrowth of keeping score. But then those stats came to be seen as measures of players' performance and ability.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 16, 2024 9:39:33 GMT -5
That’s just baseball though it’s relatively all evens out over a season There is nothing better than watching three hours of drubbing and being told later it was actually xfun (fun when adjusted by bad luck). Even if we take your strawman at face value (nobody actually said it's fun to watch the team lose), who cares if people enjoy the game differently than you? Why can't I see Rafaela hit the ball really hard and be encouraged by that, even if it didn't pan out this time?
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Post by manfred on Apr 16, 2024 9:43:49 GMT -5
There is nothing better than watching three hours of drubbing and being told later it was actually xfun (fun when adjusted by bad luck). It's just a way of describing what happened in the game. Or was there a part in eric's comment where he said it was actually fun to watch the team be unlucky for three hours?
I got radicalized about all this during Eduardo Rodriguez's heinously unlucky 7-game stretch in 2021. I could see with my own eyes that he was being exceedingly unlucky. Though his ERA was garbage, the x-stats backed that up. And but SO many people - Dave O'Brien excruciatingly chief among them - went on and on about how poorly he was pitching, about how he needed to be better. For all the talk about "I only care about what happens on the field," it seems to me that people who reject probabilistic thinking are making it harder for themselves to see what's actually in front of their faces. I would agree more if this was chess. But I watch to have a relaxing three hours, not calculate probabilities. I suspect I’m in the majority. I mean, are things like how many parks would a fly out be a HR interesting trivia? Occasionally. Is it meaningful? No. In the old days, luck was summed up as “hit ‘em where they ain’t.” Can we do x adjustments on bad coaching? On guys with tight hammies whose range is limited that day? On and on… it is pseudo science, trying to put possibility in a lab that can’t control for the flapping wings of a butterfly in Brazil.
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Post by manfred on Apr 16, 2024 9:45:34 GMT -5
There is nothing better than watching three hours of drubbing and being told later it was actually xfun (fun when adjusted by bad luck). Even if we take your strawman at face value (nobody actually said it's fun to watch the team lose), who cares if people enjoy the game differently than you? Why can't I see Rafaela hit the ball really hard and be encouraged by that, even if it didn't pan out this time? That is fine. It is more being told not to believe what you see that I am responding to.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 16, 2024 9:46:35 GMT -5
So if you're talking xBA here yes that's true, and the underlying logic is that the hitter has more control of the LA and EV than the precise spray angle or the fielder's positioning (though I'd agree that eventually the xStats should take into account spray as some players clearly do have some control of that). However, for OAA / "catch probability" purposes Savant actually handles the player's positioning and actual distance required. I can't look up this play but I feel very confident that their view of the catch probability would be lower than 42%. So the batter's xBA is based on the factors he controls most, and the fielder's OAA/catch probability is based on what he actually needed to do to get to the ball (whereas positioning is more controlled by the team, generally). At least in theory it's properly treating both players, I don't get the big issue here.
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 16, 2024 9:57:33 GMT -5
At least in theory it's properly treating both players, I don't get the big issue here. These metrics all have reasonable methodologies, but the default assumption is that all these metrics are interoperable, so then you get seeming inconsistencies (like a ball would be a HR in 30/30 parks with an xBA of .850) and some people walk away thinking the whole enterprise is BS. I think it would help if you're always one click away from learning exactly what is being measured when you're looking at these stats.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 16, 2024 9:58:43 GMT -5
It's just a way of describing what happened in the game. Or was there a part in eric's comment where he said it was actually fun to watch the team be unlucky for three hours?
I got radicalized about all this during Eduardo Rodriguez's heinously unlucky 7-game stretch in 2021. I could see with my own eyes that he was being exceedingly unlucky. Though his ERA was garbage, the x-stats backed that up. And but SO many people - Dave O'Brien excruciatingly chief among them - went on and on about how poorly he was pitching, about how he needed to be better. For all the talk about "I only care about what happens on the field," it seems to me that people who reject probabilistic thinking are making it harder for themselves to see what's actually in front of their faces. I would agree more if this was chess. But I watch to have a relaxing three hours, not calculate probabilities. I suspect I’m in the majority. I mean, are things like how many parks would a fly out be a HR interesting trivia? Occasionally. Is it meaningful? No. In the old days, luck was summed up as “hit ‘em where they ain’t.” Can we do x adjustments on bad coaching? On guys with tight hammies whose range is limited that day? On and on… it is pseudo science, trying to put possibility in a lab that can’t control for the flapping wings of a butterfly in Brazil. Personally, I feel the pangs of frustration when Rafaela flies out to the deepest part of the ballpark. The x-stats are a way of talking about that frustration. But I guess some people just think much more mechanically - it's just an 0-1. Digital outcomes. No emotion at all. But I'd rather not look at the game like a computer!
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Post by bishop on Apr 16, 2024 10:16:24 GMT -5
xBA can be an easy shorthand, but I didn't need advanced metrics to see Cedanne hit 3 balls as hard yesterday as he has this year and seeing it as a positive sign even if he was hitless. (That said it's cool I can check that data and see it's literally 3 of his 4 hardest hit balls all season.)
Looking deeper at those advanced stats it is startling how much he's been getting under the ball, people think this is SSS or is he trying to sell out for power? Last year he had 43% GB/30% LD/23% FB/4% Pop Up, this year it's 34% GB/18% LD/34% FB/13% Pop Up and that's less than ideal for a guy with his speed. Shoot he's 1 for his last 20 and that one was an infield dribbler, yesterday was promising but I still want to see him put the ball on the ground a little more to put pressure on defenses.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 16, 2024 12:52:53 GMT -5
sorry to interrupt, but really, this is the game thread. A place on this site where raw emotion, not expected stats, should rule the day. Just one man's opinion in a community of opinions. Certainly can expect some interspersed examples of those numbers, but reading those examples isn't what I would call exhilarating. That is the problem with math to begin with, it is rather boring to most people. I like to come here and read about the game, hear bitching about the MFY, yelling at umpires, cheering the home squad, just general boorish behavior. it makes for fun reading. Plenty of other threads for that. Am a firm believer in to each his own, but perhaps someone should start a new thread entitled "Gamethread X stats...All you would ever want to or not want to know"
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 16, 2024 14:12:23 GMT -5
sorry to interrupt, but really, this is the game thread. A place on this site where raw emotion, not expected stats, should rule the day. Just one man's opinion in a community of opinions. Certainly can expect some interspersed examples of those numbers, but reading those examples isn't what I would call exhilarating. That is the problem with math to begin with, it is rather boring to most people. I like to come here and read about the game, hear bitching about the MFY, yelling at umpires, cheering the home squad, just general boorish behavior. it makes for fun reading. Plenty of other threads for that. Am a firm believer in to each his own, but perhaps someone should start a new thread entitled "Gamethread X stats...All you would ever want to or not want to know" thank you. People get so deep into numbers on every thread. Can we talk like we're at the game drinking a few brews.
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Post by asm18 on Apr 16, 2024 14:32:29 GMT -5
Duran LF, Devers 3B, Yoshida DH, Casas 1B, Abreu RF, Valdez 2B, Wong C, Hamilton SS, Rafaela CF
Was hoping Reese would be in there just for the hilarity of seeing 8 lefties one lineup
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 16, 2024 14:36:23 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Apr 16, 2024 14:41:08 GMT -5
Is that a good thing or a bad thing re: Pivetta?
I believe the original word was that they expected he wouldn't need more than the 10 days off, if that, but it's now been 13 days since his last start and I haven't heard a projection for when his next one will be...
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Post by trotman on Apr 16, 2024 14:42:54 GMT -5
Duran LF, Devers 3B, Yoshida DH, Casas 1B, Abreu RF, Valdez 2B, Wong C, Hamilton SS, Rafaela CF Was hoping Reese would be in there just for the hilarity of seeing 8 lefties one lineup Until O'Neill is back we probably won't see Rafaela at SS. I just want a game were I don't have to hold my breath for routine ground balls. The latest SP podcast was down on Hamilton. His only plus seems to be range but that's limited because he doesn't have the arm to throw when ranges to the 3B side. Plus the longest windup in the world.
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Post by asm18 on Apr 16, 2024 15:16:41 GMT -5
Per Cora-
O’Neill went through concussion protocols and cleared. Will sit today and tomorrow and planning to have him back Thursday.
Romy Gonzalez working out at SS
To incandenza’s point - would Pivetta need a rehab assignment? I assume his arm hasn’t had a setback if he keeps throwing, but I don’t know if that progression allows him to jump back into the rotation without a quick tuneup in AAA?
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Apr 16, 2024 15:30:41 GMT -5
Duran LF, Devers 3B, Yoshida DH, Casas 1B, Abreu RF, Valdez 2B, Wong C, Hamilton SS, Rafaela CF Was hoping Reese would be in there just for the hilarity of seeing 8 lefties one lineup Over/under 2 errors for Hamilton tonight??
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Apr 16, 2024 15:32:25 GMT -5
Duran LF, Devers 3B, Yoshida DH, Casas 1B, Abreu RF, Valdez 2B, Wong C, Hamilton SS, Rafaela CF Was hoping Reese would be in there just for the hilarity of seeing 8 lefties one lineup Until O'Neill is back we probably won't see Rafaela at SS. I just want a game were I don't have to hold my breath for routine ground balls. The latest SP podcast was down on Hamilton. His only plus seems to be range but that's limited because he doesn't have the arm to throw when ranges to the 3B side. Plus the longest windup in the world. The SP boys have been down on Hamilton ever since he was traded here. It’s an abomination the org keeps throwing him out there. I get that O’Neill is injured, but couldn’t Cora have just plugged Masa in LF to get Ceddanne over to SS?
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