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5/10-5/12 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by brianthetaoist on May 11, 2013 16:17:47 GMT -5
We're blaming Ben Cherington for not knowing Joel Hanrahan was going to blow out his arm? We're blaming him for not accounting for the many reasons that relievers are incredibly unreliable, including the constant risk of their arms falling off. Yeah, that's fair enough. I don't share in the general gnashing of teeth over what was given up, tho. I think people tend to overestimate the value of these kinds of fairly fungible assets generally and definitely overestimate the value of Josh Reddick specifically. You can't really look at these assets cumulatively like you could with, say, money. It's not like you can package 8 low-level assets for 1 premium one when you're talking about players ... and there were serious concerns about Reddick's future that kept his value fairly low, concerns he still hasn't answered except to maybe confirm them. My take has always been that Cherington is willing to give up some fungible assets to hedge his bets for the inevitable attrition of relievers, and even taking into account volatility, Hanrahan and Bailey are better bets to perform well than your average scrap heap reliever. It's a reasonable strategy. But, I also think it's a reasonable argument that Ben has overrated the value of "closers" and premier relief pitching. In the end, it all comes back to one point: there's no substitute for developing the core of your pitching staff within your own system.
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Post by godot on May 11, 2013 16:51:04 GMT -5
Gomes is like a lumberjack they just brought in to play baseball. He hits like he is chopping a tree down, a one swing pony. Nice guy thou. Nava has consistent at bats. Gomes is consistent as well, but consistently bad. Nice guy thou.
Oliver is amazing, a forty something that has them swinging in the dirt with slow heat and winkles.
Yeah great, Middlebrooks and Salty showing some life with the bat and nap time for Napoli and Ortiz. And Drew is nodding off again. Ellsbury hasn't woke up yet. That's how it goes. All cylinders never work at once.
As for there is no substitute for developing the core of your staff from within your own system, easier said than done. Pitchers are susceptible to injury, and usually break down, sooner than later, and take time to develop. Egad, how many gave up on Lester and Clay when they came up. Probably the same that are giving up on Felix now. Welcome to Boston Mr. Webster. Now after one game, some are saying just a flat fast ball and no command. Well, the commend part is consistent.
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Post by station13 on May 11, 2013 17:41:15 GMT -5
Where has the offense go?
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Post by ozebaseball on May 11, 2013 18:08:41 GMT -5
Yeah, that's fair enough. I don't share in the general gnashing of teeth over what was given up, tho. I think people tend to overestimate the value of these kinds of fairly fungible assets generally and definitely overestimate the value of Josh Reddick specifically. You can't really look at these assets cumulatively like you could with, say, money. It's not like you can package 8 low-level assets for 1 premium one when you're talking about players ... I agree with you BrainToast in that I don't really get why everyone is all of a sudden massively cut up about what was given away for those relievers. Sure the Sox got little out of what they got back, but there is no-one out there that they gave up that to my mind keeps the Sox brass up at night wishing they had him back. But I wanted to pick up on your point here about the number of players involved. In both the Melancon in and Melancon out trade a HUGE part of each was the composition of the roster. People are forgetting that a 40 man roster spot has value in and of itself. A Stolmy Pimentel has to actually be on your 40 man roster and the cost of that is someone else not on your roster; and if Stolmy is less good than the next best option, he has negative value to your overall roster. When you're talking about creating room for potential FA acquisitions and protecting people from the Rule 5 (which incidentally was the case here) that is a crucial piece of the calculus that cannot be ignored and seemingly is by most people here.
With that said, I also agree with FTHW that most of the time teams trade for relievers you can pretty much be sure that they will be losing the trade.
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Post by Guidas on May 11, 2013 20:59:04 GMT -5
Hey look, Tampa's starting to win now too.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 11, 2013 21:28:07 GMT -5
Oliver is amazing, a forty something that has them swinging in the dirt with slow heat and winkles.  Oliver has been a "wow, that guy's still hanging around?" guy for me for at least five years now. Incredibly frustrating too, because yeah, he throws junk but somehow he's just deadly with it. In Oliver's ages 38-42 seasons: 265 games, 247.1 IP, 2.41 ERA, 3.41 K/BB. For reference, Bard is his pre-starter seasons had a 2.88 ERA and a 2.80 K/BB.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 11, 2013 21:37:58 GMT -5
As for there is no substitute for developing the core of your staff from within your own system, easier said than done. Pitchers are susceptible to injury, and usually break down, sooner than later, and take time to develop. Egad, how many gave up on Lester and Clay when they came up. Probably the same that are giving up on Felix now. Welcome to Boston Mr. Webster. Now after one game, some are saying just a flat fast ball and no command. Well, the commend part is consistent. To answer your question, no one ever gave up on Lester early in his career because he was pretty much awesome the whole time. He recovered from cancer in time to close out a world series, threw a no-hitter the next april, and then dominated the league for the next three-plus years. And as far as giving up on Buccholz, well, call me when he actually manages to be both good and healthy for an entire season.
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Post by sarasoxer on May 12, 2013 11:32:21 GMT -5
Where has the offense go? If you look at the starters, I would have to say that Papi and Napoli are the only reliable run producers....and Papi and Pedey are IMO the only guys that can hit better pitching. Take Papi out of the lineup even at 37 or put him in a slump (currently) and our current crop can be pitched to. Pedey will get his hits but he is not a likely candidate for a late-inning bomb to bring us back from behind. Ells has been a puzzle. He seems late on fastballs...fouling pitches off to the left whether the pitcher is right or left-handed. In his years with the Sox I have never seen him bang one off the left-field wall, close as it is. His power (as such) seems to be pull only. As baseball continues to evolve into a 7 inning game for the top teams with power pens, the Sox seemingly must get ahead and hold on. I don't see them having many late inning come-from-behind wins this year....and, as we have seen, even with a better pen, they can cough up their share. In fact IMO that is one area the Yanks, even as depleted as they are, have a clear superiority to the Sox. Sadly, when they have a one-run lead late, I consider it a lock for them to win.
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Post by Guidas on May 12, 2013 14:03:33 GMT -5
This is outstanding - waste a great pitching performance yesterday against Buehrle, who was looking very vulnerable in the early innings, and now pancake against some ham & egger while Dempster shits the bed. Has Valentine been hanging in the clubhouse since May 3 or did this team just realize that "good clubhouse presence guys" do not equal OBP?
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Post by marrcus on May 12, 2013 14:11:47 GMT -5
I don't see them having many late inning come-from-behind ------------------------------------------- Run production of any kind would be nice. Really look weak out there. Lester had to be perfect (almost).
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on May 12, 2013 14:51:12 GMT -5
I hate to say it, after becoming very optimistic about this team, but things are beginning to look a lot like last year. It's as if when May arrived, someone threw a switch and cut off the team's energy.
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Post by grandsalami on May 12, 2013 15:36:41 GMT -5
we suck again!!!
yah!
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 12, 2013 16:46:18 GMT -5
I hate to say it, after becoming very optimistic about this team, but things are beginning to look a lot like last year. It's as if when May arrived, someone threw a switch and cut off the team's energy.Or maybe it's like a one month sample size doesn't tell us much about a team, and Ryan Dempster was never going to be that good a pitcher.
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Post by grandsalami on May 12, 2013 16:52:26 GMT -5
Rob Bradford ?@bradfo 15m Victorino taken to hospital to get ribs/back checked out after collision against wall
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 12, 2013 17:21:22 GMT -5
Can't help but wonder if the Sox are going to follow up an 20-8 start with a month that brings them back down toward .500.
I didn't expect much from this team, but there were so many good signs that first month. Buchholz, Lester, and Dempster looked like a viable 1-2-3 top of the rotation and honestly they still do. I figured Webster could very well claim the #4 spot at some point (and he might very well still do that). That said, I hope the Sox get 200+ innings from Buchholz and he stays healthy.
The offense looked viable as well.
But now there are some real concerns on this team. I wonder if the Sox will get anything from Doubront this year.
The clueless Bob Neumeier proclaimed the Sox bullpen as the best or something like that after that first week. Should have known the bullpen would turn into a disaster area as the depth has quickly worn down.
I'm concerned about WMB being very mediocre which puts a dent into the lineup, especially if/when Nava cools off. And I'm thinking the Ellsbury we saw in 2011 is a distant memory. He resembles a leadoff hitter with a mediocre OBP and very little power.
The Sox will most likely bounce back and I think we're in for an up and down season, and I'm thinking that somehow someway the Yanks will wind up in first again, as I cannot figure out how they're winning, but I will not believe in their demise until I actually see it.
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Post by godot on May 12, 2013 17:46:25 GMT -5
Are we getting close to hitting the bottom? Not yet. Ross is now on the DL. Middlebrooks may find his way there as well. No Bailey and the pen is still shaky. Felix the Cat is still trying to find his way out of the corn fields. Drew is still a tad shaky. Getting there thou .Ellsbury , Papi, and the Neck (perhaps will lead the way. Keep the faith. We were wrong when their good start made us so optimistic, so the odds are pretty good our pessimism is not warranted.
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Post by jmei on May 12, 2013 17:54:18 GMT -5
Ah yes, I missed the doom and gloom Gameday threads.
EDIT: per Alex Speier, the Red Sox are now 13-for-their-last-79 with runners in scoring position. Now, part of that is Napoli and Ortiz slumping while Ellsbury/Victorino/Pedroia get on base, but there's a lot of bad luck with regards to sequencing, too. This team isn't as good as it showed in April and it isn't as bad as it has shown so far in May. But they should be in the playoff hunt through the summer, and that's as good as you could ask for after what happened last year.
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Post by Guidas on May 12, 2013 18:37:37 GMT -5
Where the hell are the Astros when you need them?
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Post by sarasoxer on May 12, 2013 19:14:05 GMT -5
Damn gloom & doomers! All we need is Lynn, Rice, Evans, Cooper, Boomer, Burleson & Fisk....Oglivie off the bench. Aren't they all due to come off the DL? Hey, we will clean house. It's gonna be fun! I have ordered my playoff tickets. ...Hope that I am not sitting in the stands alone.....
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