SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Future Left Side of the Infield
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2013 11:47:22 GMT -5
The Sox have a lot of questions regarding what the left side of the infield (SS, 3B) will be now, and in the future. Middlebrooks is clearly struggling, although is appears to be all mental. Really, if he could learn some plate discipline, he would start hitting again. Drew is the Shortstop this year, although he isn't living up to the money he is getting. It is hard to find playing time though for the red-hot Jose Iglesias. Ciriaco was recently DFA. The question is, what will the left side of the infield look like now and in the future?
Current players: WMB (3B), Iglesias (SS), Drew (SS)
Prospects: Bogaerts (SS), Cecchini (3B), Almanzar (3B), Holt (SS/2B), Marrero (SS)
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2013 12:43:01 GMT -5
I've said this before, but the Red Sox are coming to a crossroads with Middlebrooks. Even if he struggles over the next month, he'll still have some trade value. But that trade value can evaporate very quickly. The longer this goes on, the less his trade value will be.
|
|
|
|
Post by ray88h66 on Jun 13, 2013 12:55:03 GMT -5
I don't know how it will work out but it's a good problem to have. Been a long time since the Sox system had so much talent on the left side.
|
|
|
|
Post by amfox1 on Jun 13, 2013 13:14:56 GMT -5
Current players: WMB (3B), Iglesias (SS), Drew (SS) Prospects: Bogaerts (SS), Cecchini (3B), Almanzar (3B), Holt (SS/2B), Marrero (SS) I could see the following next year: 1B: Napoli (assumes re-signed to two-year deal) 2B: Pedroia SS: Iglesias 3B: Middlebrooks UT: Holt DH: Ortiz (signed through 2014) AAA SS: Bogaerts
AA SS: Marrero
AA 3B: CecchiniI could see the following for 2015: 1B: Middlebrooks (he'll be 27 at the end of the 2015 season, he'll be an arb 1) 2B: Pedroia (team option for 2015, he'll be 32 at the end of the 2015 season) SS: Iglesias (he'll be 25 at the end of the 2015 season, not arb-eligible) 3B: Bogaerts (he'll be 23 at the end of the 2015 season, not arb-eligible) UT: Holt (he'll be 27 at the end of the 2015 season, not arb-eligible) DH: Napoli (signed through 2015, he'll be almost 34 at the end of the 2015 season) AAA SS: Marrero (he'll be 25 at the end of the 2015 season)
AAA 3B: Cecchini (he'll be 24 at the end of the 2015 season)I predict that Almanzar will be traded this year and Drew will leave as a free agent at the end of this year. |
|
|
|
Post by charliezink16 on Jun 13, 2013 13:19:51 GMT -5
Adam, always agree with most of your stuff, but what about Carp? He may not fit the mold of a prototypical 1B, but he will definitely be in the argument for the starting position next season, which may be more convenient than signing Napoli to a 2 year deal.
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,827
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 13, 2013 13:46:16 GMT -5
Adam, always agree with most of your stuff, but what about Carp? He may not fit the mold of a prototypical 1B, but he will definitely be in the argument for the starting position next season, which may be more convenient than signing Napoli to a 2 year deal. I know this is about the left side of the infield, but you almost have to bring up 1st base at the same time (2nd is taken period). I can see Middlebrooks learning how to play some 1st. I can see Xander getting competent at 3rd also. I personally like Carp much more than I thought I would. AND now let me state a point that may sound sacrilegious to some: Napoli's strikeout rate is worrying me and may really become a big problem! He has definitely surprised me as a defensive first baseman, he is a very solid teammate, but more and more teams are more than willing to pitch around Big Papi and go after Napoli. I could see Carp playing more and more at first this year, and maybe beyond. If Middlebrooks and Bogaerts BOTH learn a 2nd position, it could give a lot of flexibility for next year and in the future. My INFIELD (not just the left side) is: - Bogaerts at 3rd - Iglesias at short - Pedroia at 2nd - Middlebrooks and Carp at 1st Cecchini should be learning 1st base himself as to be more valuable himself. Both Middlebrooks and Cecchini can become the next Youk.....capable of playing both 3rd and 1st decently. Xander can play short 15 to 20 games a year backing up Iglesias. Marrero becomes a super sub at 2nd and short or he is traded. |
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on Jun 13, 2013 13:47:56 GMT -5
I have serious doubts that Middlebrooks and Iglesias can hold off Bogaerts into next year. In fact, I think by next year Bogaerts will be a clearly superior player to both of them, so it's really about which of them beats out the other for value as a starter. One will perhaps be traded, or either Iglesias stays as a super-utility guy who plays dazzling defense all over the infield, or Middlebrooks learns his way around a first baseman's mitt and becomes a backup at both corner IF positions, and Bogaerts starts at third and backs up Iglesias at short, and Iglesias backs up Pedroia at second, etc
|
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jun 13, 2013 13:53:07 GMT -5
Middlebrooks is clearly struggling, although is appears to be all mental. I'm not sure it is all mental. Someone with better baseball smarts than me would have to comment, but I don't think it is mental as much as a minor lack of skill. Ray brought up a good point, it's a fantastic position to be in. I think Drew is still the best SS option this year. Will be interesting to see the ST battle with Xander and Iglesias next year though for the starting job at short. |
|
|
|
Post by bjb406 on Jun 13, 2013 13:57:50 GMT -5
I don't see us trading away a talented cost controlled player like middlebrooks at the deadline while in position to possibly win the division. I think what we do for next year depends on how well Iglesias hits for the rest of the season, and what we do with Napoli. If we let him go for a draft pick then the most logical way to replace him is to shift Middlebrooks over, which clears up the logjam. They probably won't consider that if Iglesias's offensive production totally collapses, and if he can't hit well long term he is the perfect utility infielder. If we resign Napoli and Iglesias' bat continues to look at least solid, we probably list both as starters at the beginning of the season, and Bogaerts comes up for whichever one gets hurt or struggles first. Then we trade one of them at next year's deadline. This seams like the most likely scenario to me.
I don't see us trading Almanzar because Ortiz and Napoli are both probably not long term solutions, and I feel like he is the only guy in the system I could see having any chance of hitting enough to play either position for the red sox. At least in my opinion.
Whatever the case I would say there is approximately 0% chance Drew is on the team next year. I think he has done a real solid job for us (.703 OPS isn't bad for a SS), and has certainly been worth 9.5 million. He is currently listed 8th in the league in WAR among SS according to ESPN. Its just we really only ever needed him for 1 year.
|
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jun 13, 2013 14:14:32 GMT -5
To me it appears that Middlebrook's main problem appears to be confidence. The guy was connecting on anything over the plate for a while but when he got into a little slump he started pressing. Now he is weakly trying to take balls to RF and he doesn't seem to have that skill. To be honest, I think he needs time in AAA. I do think he will recover though and be a solid pro.
I see no point in making him a 1st baseman. He's not hitting well enough to be a 3rd baseman right now. Why think about moving him to 1st?
I'm not down on him. I just think he was brought up a little early because he was doing so well. He probably could use more development on his approach and taking balls to RF. Above all, he has to play with confidence. He should drink whatever Iglesias is consuming.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2013 14:19:25 GMT -5
Don't get me wrong about WMB. I still think he is very talented and could break out of his slump anytime. It is still too early to say that he doesn't have a future as a starting 3B. If he could develop some plate discipline and better hitting ability, he could still be a very good 3B. He has great power already. He seems to try to over-swing everything. For example, a few nights ago, the Rays brought in a reliever. He was throwing 96-98 mph. Will was swinging at pitches right down middle so hard that he was trying to put the ball into orbit. He therefore struck out. A 96-98 mph fastball supplies the power. All that a player need to do it get the fat part of the bat on it and the ball could go into the gap or maybe a home run. Will swings for a home run on every pitch. Swing for a base hit, and the power will come. If a veteran (Ortiz, Pedroia) could do some one-on-one mentoring to him, maybe WMB could break out of the slump and become a great 3B.
|
|
|
|
Post by welovewally on Jun 13, 2013 14:21:29 GMT -5
I think the Red Sox would trade Middlebrooks before moving him to 1B.
That being said I think it eventually shakes out Like this;
3B - Middlebrooks
SS - Marrero
2B - Pedroia
1B - Bogaerts
Iglesias gets traded or is the Utility Player
|
|
|
|
Post by amfox1 on Jun 13, 2013 14:24:19 GMT -5
Adam, always agree with most of your stuff, but what about Carp? He may not fit the mold of a prototypical 1B, but he will definitely be in the argument for the starting position next season, which may be more convenient than signing Napoli to a 2 year deal. Carp has had a nice year but it's only 102 PAs. I also point out that his K/BB is 29/7, which is not the recipe for long-term success (and, yes, I'm aware of Napoli's K-rate). At best, I see Carp as the LH bench bat, backing up/platooning with Middlebrooks and getting some reps in the corner OF. |
|
|
|
Post by mattpicard on Jun 13, 2013 14:26:46 GMT -5
I think the Red Sox would trade Middlebrooks before moving him to 1B. That being said I think it eventually shakes out Like this; 3B - Middlebrooks SS - Marrero 2B - Pedroia 1B - Bogaerts Iglesias gets traded or is the Utility Player I really doubt you'd see Bogaerts at first over Middlebrooks. Xander seems too athletic, and to me, third base looks like his calling when he moves off shortstop. Middlebrooks is a competent third baseman, but far from spectacular, and with him likely being the one fighting for full playing time in 2014 (if he's even still with us) once Bogaerts is up, it'd be easier to shift him over to first where he can share time with Carp and/or Napoli. |
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 13, 2013 14:49:58 GMT -5
If Xander keeps proving he can stay at SS he's the SS. A bat like that at a premium position is too valuable.
|
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Jun 13, 2013 15:45:28 GMT -5
Middlebrooks went from being the future of the franchise at 3B to not having a spot pretty quickly.
There are a lot of variable between now and trading one of Iggy, Middlebrooks, Xander, or Cecchinni. You also have to look outside of the SS/3B discussion before that. What if we need a Corner OF, could one of these guys fill the roll. What if we are trading for a top line SP? To much to consider. Here are my thoughts.
Iglesias is the SS of the future in my opinion. He is young, cost controllable, and all his value is tied to his defensive potential. His value goes way down when you move him off the position. Where I think Bogaerts has his defensive value tied to his positioning more than his defensive quality. It's the thought of fitting a middle of the order bat outside of the corners. If Iggy has SS locked down, you can move Xanders bat around and get rid of a Nava/Napoli/Carp type of player. Cecchini seems like a trade candidate to me. The industry is pretty high on him.
This is interesting, what if come 2015 Xander is playing somewhere outside of SS, but proves he could play SS, and 2014 MLB is like his AA line, we could have one of the most valuable players on the trade market. It would be close to what Stanton would be worth at the start of the season, Stanton having more power and experience, but Xander having more years of team control and playing a premium position. We will hopefully be competing, so you wouldn't want to trade him for a 4 prospect package like Stanton might command later this year, but what about a Shelby.
Everything I just said, I really doubt they will trade Xander or Cecchinni, I am pulling for all 4 of these guys.
|
|
|
|
Post by mattpicard on Jun 13, 2013 15:50:07 GMT -5
If Xander keeps proving he can stay at SS he's the SS. A bat like that at a premium position is too valuable. Not a fan of this argument. Just because he could play shortstop - which would maximize his market value - doesn't mean he needs to because of it. He's going to be with our organization for years to come before we worry about other teams competing for his services. Point is, if we have Iglesias and Bogaerts on our major league roster, Iggy is certainly going to be the shortstop. If he fails collapses offensively to the point where he shouldn't be a starting player, Bogaerts can always shift back. See the Mike Trout / Peter Bourjos situation in LAA, for example. Many people want Trout to be the full time center fielder because he's an incredibly valuable all around player, and his ability to play center field would maximize his player value year. Yet, Mike Scioscia is currently making the best decision to keep Trout in LF when Bourjos is playing, because Bourjos is a better fielder there. It's really about maximizing value to the team, not the player. |
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 13, 2013 16:01:11 GMT -5
Having a bat like Bogaerts at SS offers the value to the team not the fictional market.
|
|
|
|
Post by mattpicard on Jun 13, 2013 16:10:25 GMT -5
Having a bat like Bogaerts at SS offers the value to the team not the fictional market. What? I'm not sure what you're trying to say. A bat like ___ at position ___ doesn't tell you anything about maximizing a teams total performance if you don't balance it with the other players and how they fit together at that and the other positions. |
|
|
|
Post by Legion of Bloom on Jun 13, 2013 16:13:49 GMT -5
Having a bat like Bogaerts at SS offers the value to the team not the fictional market. I think what Matt was referring to was that if both Xander and Iggy are in the lineup, regardless of the "value" Xander might have as an elite-hitting SS, to the team it would make more sense to slide Xander to 3B and have Iglesias who is by far the superior defender play at SS. It's pretty obvious. |
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jun 13, 2013 16:15:11 GMT -5
If Middlebrooks is beat out at 3rd, he gets traded. He's worth a lot more at 3rd and that slot is very much in demand.
And put me down for Carp at 1st at least on a platoon basis. Remember that they had the team meeting the other day when Ciraco was DFA. And all the sudden Carp gets a start at 1st. It makes sense for them to give him a shot.
They should platoon Iglesias / Drew and Carp / Napoli according to their splits at this point. And I'd throw Victorino in that camp as well if JBJ were there.
|
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Jun 13, 2013 16:19:24 GMT -5
If Xander keeps proving he can stay at SS he's the SS. A bat like that at a premium position is too valuable. I think this is an irrational way to look at it. You have to look at the team as a whole. First off SS is a defensive first position. An 80 defensive SS will save more runs than a 80 defensive 2b will save more runs than a 80 defensive 1B. Typically the better hitters play at less important defensive positions. 1B, corner OF, and DH. A typical team should expect that their middle of the order power hitters 3-4-5 should come from the DH, 1B, RF, pool (highest Wrc average per fangraphs over the last three years)and a weaker hitter at SS (87 wRC average over last 3 years). So if you have good hitters in these hitting first positions, yes it creates big value for your team to have a SS who can hit like another middle of the order bat. Now if you have a year like 2012 where you have Sweeney, Podsednik, McDonald all hitting league average or worst at the corner outfield, it doesn't matter where your power bats comes from, and if you can improve your defense without changing your offense you should. If so in this situation, if you have Iglesias who is hitting league average and playing stellar defense, a replacement level player in LF, and Bogaerts who is mashing, the best play is to have Xander relocate to the outfield and take the defense at SS. To make up a hypothetical, if Iglesias was a 80 defender at both ss and 2B, and Bogaerts was a 60 defender at both SS and 2B, and these were your only two options at this position, it would not make sense to play the better hitter at SS. Lot of Ifs in the post, but just trying to get a point across |
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on Jun 13, 2013 16:22:29 GMT -5
Having a bat like Bogaerts at SS offers the value to the team not the fictional market. Point I was trying to make, would you rather have a great SS and a good SS, or a Great pitcher and a good SS. |
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Jun 13, 2013 16:42:39 GMT -5
If Xander keeps proving he can stay at SS he's the SS. A bat like that at a premium position is too valuable.[/quote ]Not a fan of this argument. Just because he could play shortstop - which would maximize his market value - doesn't mean he needs to because of it. He's going to be with our organization for years to come before we worry about other teams competing for his services. Point is, if we have Iglesias and Bogaerts on our major league roster, Iggy is certainly going to be the shortstop. If he fails collapses offensively to the point where he shouldn't be a starting player, Bogaerts can always shift back.
See the Mike Trout / Peter Bourjos situation in LAA, for example. Many people want Trout to be the full time center fielder because he's an incredibly valuable all around player, and his ability to play center field would maximize his player value year. Yet, Mike Scioscia is currently making the best decision to keep Trout in LF when Bourjos is playing, because Bourjos is a better fielder there. It's really about maximizing value to the team, not the player. Bogaerts would be one of the youngest players in the MLB, assuming switching him to a new position (with the possibility of switching him back later) wouldn't impact his development at all is tough for me to accept. When he comes to the big club I'd rather he just focused on hitting rather than learning a new position. I realize Machado has made it look easy, but I don't think that's the best path, nor do I think Iglesias is worth the risk/trouble. The Red Sox shouldn't construct the roster to accommodate Iglesias' skills, they should look to build the roster around Bogaerts. Iglesias has one great tool but as an overall player he isn't some rare talent...Bogaerts is. I realize Drew has always played shortstop and the Red Sox probably have a handshake deal with Boras, but they aren't even willing to move him off the position as a one year rental to maximize Iglesias' value. Why would they screw with Bogaerts at all? If Iglesias keeps hitting for the rest of the year the Red Sox should consider themselves lucky and look to sell high during the offseason. I'd agree the short term best roster construction would be to play Iggy at shortstop, it just shouldn't be the only consideration as roster options change frequently... players slump, prospects emerge, veterans can be acquired from other organizations. All these players are assets and commodities, they aren't locked into any of these guys long term. I'd look to put the pieces you know you want to build with in their proper position and then sort in the role players after. I'd rather give up marginal short term value to plan for the next 5+ seasons rather than change things on the fly because Iglesias finally hit for 25 games in a row. I'd be worried if Bogaerts moved off the position for a year he might be more encouraged to bulk up as range wouldn't be as important, and without the continued reps he'd never be able to make the transition back. Perhaps I'm overstating it, and to be fair I've never been a believer in Iglesias as anything more than a role player. |
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 13, 2013 17:07:51 GMT -5
All I am saying is that having a SS with a bat like Bogaerts will give you a competitive advantage because of how much his offense will be above the league avg there. Yes SS is a defensive position but if you have someone who is fine at the position and produces so far ahead of the avg there it's giving you a competitive advantage and covers anything you are missing defensively.
If Iglesias keeps hitting well and Middlebrooks not so well then I could see why Bogaerts makes more sense at 3rd base. It's not like I will be disappointed.
It is my opinion that an offensive SS is one of more valuable things for any MLB franchise and not because of perceived value league wide but because of the advantage it gives you offesively.
|
|
|
