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6/17 ML Gameday Thread: Opening Day for the Lowell Spinners
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 18, 2013 8:21:08 GMT -5
Middlebrooks will get better thru his struggles. It's tough to give up on a guy with that much power...to ALL fields. Brentz will be our RF in a year or two....Two power bats. Brentz , from reports here, is making adjustments. He will continue to do so. We will need them as Papi leaves. Outside of Bradley, I don't see much OF potential in the system and we know that we will lose Ells.
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Post by godot on Jun 18, 2013 8:53:40 GMT -5
Middlebrooks will get better thru his struggles. It's tough to give up on a guy with that much power...to ALL fields. Brentz will be our RF in a year or two....Two power bats. Brentz , from reports here, is making adjustments. He will continue to do so. We will need them as Papi leaves. Outside of Bradley, I don't see much OF potential in the system and we know that we will lose Ells. What adjustments are Brentz making? What are the reports you speak of and who made them? Agree about the lack of outfielders in the system. Ellsbury situation is getting interesting. When he gets on base, he is showing how disruptive he can be, but he is still not showing the offensive prowess yet that would demand a big payday. |
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Post by ibsmith85 on Jun 18, 2013 9:05:34 GMT -5
Middlebrooks will get better thru his struggles. It's tough to give up on a guy with that much power...to ALL fields. Brentz will be our RF in a year or two....Two power bats. Brentz , from reports here, is making adjustments. He will continue to do so. We will need them as Papi leaves. Outside of Bradley, I don't see much OF potential in the system and we know that we will lose Ells. What adjustments are Brentz making? What are the reports you speak of and who made them? Agree about the lack of outfielders in the system. Ellsbury situation is getting interesting. When he gets on base, he is showing how disruptive he can be, but he is still not showing the offensive prowess yet that would demand a big payday. I believe the adjustments Sarasoxer were referring to was in his approach. milbprospective.wordpress.com/2013/05/22/notable-quotables-quiet-approach-makes-brentzs-bat-louder/ |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 18, 2013 9:48:04 GMT -5
Brentz
2013: .272/.322/.506, 22.6% K rate, 5.7% BB rate
2012: .290/.349/.465, 26.1% K rate, 7.9% BB rate
Not sure what to even take from these, but there ya go.
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Post by semperfisox on Jun 18, 2013 9:51:52 GMT -5
Brentz to me a a decent trade piece. I don't think he has a future with the big club.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Jun 18, 2013 10:16:39 GMT -5
Strange line so far from Cole. Twelve innings, no walks, only three strikeouts.
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Post by raftsox on Jun 18, 2013 11:16:27 GMT -5
In a recent BA podcast with Jim Callis, he mentioned that a lot of power hitters with high K rates need longer development times (I believe he was talking about Gallo). However, he specifically mentioned that many times they need to learn in the majors; it takes time to learn to recognize which pitches can and cannot be hit and which are and are not in the zone. Sometimes a high K, power hitter won't turn that corner, but he feels that a lot of teams give up on them too early. Chris Davis was one of his major league examples.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871 
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Post by danr on Jun 18, 2013 12:05:28 GMT -5
I think it is a bit early with Brentz to make a very definitive projection. I certainly wouldn't rule him out as the Sox regular RF in a year or two. He does seem to be making some progress.
I'd like to see his BA and OBA a little higher with a few more hits and a few more walks. The K rate is not too bad for a power hitter. Compare to Napoli (34%), WBM (29%), Drew (27%) and Nava (18%). Then there is the great one, Ortiz (12.5%).
I haven't looked it up, but the Sox must have one of the lowest home run hitting outfields in the majors. It could hardly be much lower. The lineup probably could benefit from a RF, even with a mid 20s K rate, if he hit 25-30 HRs and maintained an average in the .270 range.
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Post by mattpicard on Jun 18, 2013 12:22:17 GMT -5
I'd like to see his BA and OBA a little higher with a few more hits and a few more walks. The K rate is not too bad for a power hitter. Compare to Napoli (34%), WBM (29%), Drew (27%) and Nava (18%). Then there is the great one, Ortiz (12.5%). Yeah but the big difference is he's not facing the pitchers that those guys on the MLB team striking out against now. There's no reason not to expect Brentz's K% to spike at least a little bit when he gets to the big leagues, especially as they start to exploit him on breaking balls he's not used to, tough off-speed stuff, and high heat that he can't catch up to. He doesn't seem to be becoming a better on-base type guy, but there's too much we've yet to see from him before figuring what type of hitter he'll be (besides a mediocre "plate discipline" guy, but it goes father than that) in an MLB lineup. Is he going to be like Napoli and miss a ton of pitches in the zone, but still get enough XBH's and lay off enough outside pitches to be a useful hitter? Is he going to clobber strikes but swing at any pitch outside the zone like Middlebrooks? I'm open to Brentz and am starting to follow him more closely, but I'm quite hesitant at penciling him in as our RF for a year or so. Luckily, we have guys we'll retain barring a trade or injury in Nava, Victorino, and Gomes that will prevent us from relying on him as a starter in the near-future. The Sox certainly have a very good offense, but with Middlebrooks, Salty, Napoli and our shorstops hitting approach issues, I don't want to take a chance on Brentz just because he could give us some power. |
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jun 18, 2013 14:19:52 GMT -5
I think we'd have to look at Brentz much more closely, the way the team does, to see how he does against those pitchers in AAA who are major-league ready and/or experienced. I don't think there is a lot of difference between the 4th and 5th starters of most major league teams and the better AAA pitchers. Obviously, however, it is much more desirable to have someone who hits the 1, 2 and 3 pitchers, and without some time in the majors, he'll only see those guys briefly on their way up, if at all.
I haven't understood the Gomes signing since it was done, and in retrospect it makes even less sense to me. He's not a good fielder and he's not a good hitter. He does get on base some, but not enough, especially since that position he plays should generate offense.
Victorino has been better than I expected when he has played, but he doesn't hit for enough power and he is fragile. I don't think he can be counted on for the next two seasons.
I've been a fan of Nava's since he was in Lancaster, but I never thought he would become the team's best outfielder.
The team needs good outfielders. Other than Brentz and Bradley, neither of whom is a sure thing, there are none of exceptional talent in the system on the near term horizon.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Jun 18, 2013 15:57:52 GMT -5
I absolutely expect JBJ to be a sure thing, his skillset (plate approach, pitch recognition, good defensive reads) and high baseball IQ should translate quite well to Boston. Those are not things that you suddenly lose, they only improve.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 18, 2013 17:39:50 GMT -5
What adjustments are Brentz making? What are the reports you speak of and who made them? Agree about the lack of outfielders in the system. Ellsbury situation is getting interesting. When he gets on base, he is showing how disruptive he can be, but he is still not showing the offensive prowess yet that would demand a big payday. I believe the adjustments Sarasoxer were referring to was in his approach. milbprospective.wordpress.com/2013/05/22/notable-quotables-quiet-approach-makes-brentzs-bat-louder/godot, I believe that ibsmith85 responded to you appropriately for which I thank him. I believe that SP may also have had a piece on Brentz's adjustments. It was my bad in assuming that you may have read those pieces and I thus apologize for assuming too much. Middlebrooks and Brentz represent IMO low cost power for our future clubs. Given Papi's likely near term departure, who will we have (and at what cost?) to replace that production?....As another poster above pointed out, we have a bottom tier power outfield. Ells, Victorino and the esteemed Nave have a total of 11 home runs thru 45% of the season. Lynn, Rice & Evans approached 100 collectively annually. If we trade Brentz and/or Middlebooks, where is that production going to be made up?....and at what financial cost? ...sign a guy or 2 for $20M/year?...Not good business IMO. |
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Post by jmei on Jun 18, 2013 18:21:31 GMT -5
I don't really understand the fetishization of power. A guy can hit 25 home runs, but if he doesn't get on base much or play plus defense, he's still not that valuable a player. I'd rather have a bunch of Daniel Navas than a bunch of Mark Trumbos.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jun 18, 2013 18:29:47 GMT -5
Well, if you put it that way it is no contest. But the 3-run HR is a great thing to have in the arsenal. I like high OBAs a great deal, but I can't think of a team that has gone all the way in recent years without having some thumpers in the lineup as well.
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Post by mattpicard on Jun 18, 2013 18:47:40 GMT -5
I know right field is a position where it's convenient to have some power, but I don't like the argument of wanting Brentz over Victorino solely on that basis. As for injuries, it's too early to label Victorino with the "can't play every day" syndrome, since he's only really had a single injury this season that's recurred a little too much. Comparing the two of them:
.280/.335/.360, with around +15 runs saved on defense (UZR, DRS)
vs.
.245/.300/.450, with round -5 to +2 runs saved
I'll take the first one, any day.
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Post by mattpicard on Jun 18, 2013 18:49:50 GMT -5
Well, if you put it that way it is no contest. But the 3-run HR is a great thing to have in the arsenal. I like high OBAs a great deal, but I can't think of a team that has gone all the way in recent years without having some thumpers in the lineup as well. What about the team that's won more World Series than anyone recently? The Giants had one guy with more 12 homers last year (Posey, 24), and their only 20-homer guys in 2010 were Aubrey Huff and Juan Uribe. |
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 19, 2013 10:31:04 GMT -5
I don't really understand the fetishization of power. A guy can hit 25 home runs, but if he doesn't get on base much or play plus defense, he's still not that valuable a player. I'd rather have a bunch of Daniel Navas than a bunch of Mark Trumbos. Well, I'd rather have a bunch of Navas than anyone else on the team given his play so far. He has the best pitch recognition and zone judgment of any Sox player since a young Youkilis. He might bang out 20 homers this year too. I don't think it is an either or matter with power vs OBP and defense. And BTW, Brentz is not a stiff in the OF....certainly better than Gomes or Carp. The Yankeees clubbed their way to what, 27 World Championships? The Giants most recently proved that is not the only way to win. If I had my druthers, I'd have a blend of power, speed, OBP & defense (I know, wouldn't we all). But power is a very nice asset to have. How many times in the last few years did I see the Yankees, behind in the late innings, come through with 2 or 3 run homers to win. Brentz' OBP this year is not great (.316) but it has been higher in prior years....He needs to get more selective and I have confidence that he will. |
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Post by elguapo on Jun 19, 2013 10:43:29 GMT -5
Brentz isn't necessarily my cup of tea but he has produced at every level so far to the cusp of the Majors.
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