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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 27, 2014 7:38:59 GMT -5
Concern is warranted but when the tone becomes one of giving up on a 19 year old with even less than the usual experience, a year after he's drafted, it's a bit too extreme in my opinion.
The troll comment was meant for those who typically troll anyways.
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Post by oilcansman on Jun 27, 2014 8:52:29 GMT -5
I'm concerned as hell when scouts match up with putrid numbers, not trolling. The kid's a straight bust. It happens to all teams. Not really that big of a deal, because the Sox drafted pretty well in '10, '11 and '12. The odd part about Ball is it was so evident in last year's GCL. Even though he pitched only a few innings, he couldn't get kids out that were his own age. I pointed it out then and again when he couldn't get out of the GCL in April, and I thought some of the bloggers here were going to call in the leg breakers to deal with me. Even more strange is that many bloggers on this board have acted like Ball is their son. Ball has $2,000,000 to show for his efforts, so he'll be fine. The Sox will, too. No sure about some of the bloggers,though.
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Post by oilcansman on Jun 27, 2014 8:56:54 GMT -5
Concern is warranted but when the tone becomes one of giving up on a 19 year old with even less than the usual experience, a year after he's drafted, it's a bit too extreme in my opinion. The troll comment was meant for those who typically troll anyways. Oh, well, I guess I'm a troll for being correct. BTW, I'm sure your decision not to give up on Ball will greatly enhance his development and be of assistance to his mental well being.
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Post by bigpupp on Jun 27, 2014 9:01:39 GMT -5
I'm concerned as hell when scouts match up with putrid numbers, not trolling. The kid's a straight bust. It happens to all teams. Not really that big of a deal, because the Sox drafted pretty well in '10, '11 and '12. The odd part about Ball is it was so evident in last year's GCL. Even though he pitched only a few innings, he couldn't get kids out that were his own age. I pointed it out then and again when he couldn't get out of the GCL in April, and I thought some of the bloggers here were going to call in the leg breakers to deal with me. Even more strange is that many bloggers on this board have acted like Ball is their son. Ball has $2,000,000 to show for his efforts, so he'll be fine. The Sox will, too. No sure about some of the bloggers,though. Wow....
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 27, 2014 9:03:57 GMT -5
Do you quit this easily at the things you trying to achieve in your life, oilcansman? Or do you just quit on others?
All people are saying is he that he was a top 10 rated draftee and has a good makeup. The early results aren't great, but let's be a little patient with the kid and let him work on some things.
I doubt Trey Ball and the Red Sox are giving up. He may or may no make it, but I'm pretty sure they both feel there's still talent there to work with.
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Post by oilcansman on Jun 27, 2014 9:23:19 GMT -5
baseballprospectnation.com/2013/05/30/scouting-report-trey-ball-lhp/www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20615here are a couple pre draft report links and a Callis quote regarding two way players... "The 2013 draftee with the best fallback plan is New Castle (Ind.) High’s Trey Ball, who likely will be a top-10-overall choice as a lefthanded pitcher. Coming into the year, scouts were split on whether Ball had a brighter future as an outfielder or a pitcher. He has put that debate to rest by showing a 91-94 mph fastball and an improved curveball this spring, but he also would merit a second- or third-round selecton as a position player. He projects as an athletic right fielder with above-average lefthanded power potential and arm strength". By next summer, we should know if Trey is a pitcher. if not, it might be like adding a supplemental round outfielder then. Next summer is here. The Red Sox should consider a position switch if things don't improve dramatically before the end of the year,
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Post by jmei on Jun 27, 2014 9:23:42 GMT -5
I thought some of the bloggers here were going to call in the leg breakers to deal with me. Man, you just seem totally unable to separate the fact that people can disagree with you without wishing you physical harm.
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Post by oilcansman on Jun 27, 2014 9:27:11 GMT -5
Do you quit this easily at the things you trying to achieve in your life, oilcansman? Or do you just quit on others? All people are saying is he that he was a top 10 rated draftee and has a good makeup. The early results aren't great, but let's be a little patient with the kid and let him work on some things. I doubt Trey Ball and the Red Sox are giving up. He may or may no make it, but I'm pretty sure they both feel there's still talent there to work with. Whether we give up on him is irrelevant. We don't have a say. We don't matter. It's between the Sox and Ball. My point is Ball has a pretty unusual and potentially sweet ability to hit. It's getting pretty clear he is not a professional pitcher. The longer he pitches the less likely it is he will be able to develop as a hitter.
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 27, 2014 9:35:15 GMT -5
What's the point of moving him to the outfield now? Why wouldn't we at least give him another full season or 2 pitching? It was obvious from the beginning that he was going to have a long way to go (cold weather state, started throwing a curve senior year of high school, payed OF half the time, 6'6 180), giving up on all his upside now is absurdly short-sighted. Or pessimistic. Or both. And if he really can't figure it out as a pitcher, maybe we can try him in the outfield, but they obviously aren't going to bail on a guy who still has as good as shot as most guys to develop into something. This isn't the NBA or the NFL: you can't label someone a bust within a year of their being drafted and expect people to take you seriously. I know it's not a great long term example, but Bard was horrendous early in his minor league career, then developed into one of the best relievers in the game until we screwed him up trying to turn him into a starter
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 27, 2014 9:42:46 GMT -5
I'm sorry I don't want to sound rude but these calls for a position switch are pretty F'ing ridiculous.
Trey Ball is 19 in his first season of pro ball out of high school. He would be a freshman in College.
When Anthony Ranaudo was a sophomore in college he had a really ugly season at 20 years old, was still a first round pick at 21 years old and then had a horrible season at 22 in Portland. Does anyone really have an issue with the Sox drafting him in the first round now? and does anyone really have a big problem with him being ranked a top 5 prospect???
Yes I know you can somewhat attribute Anthony's struggles to his health but my point is how cynical we come from such a small sample size of performance and how quickly perceptions change. The ridiculousness of giving up on a kid using a small sample sizes is compounded by the fact of how young and raw he is.
In the end I can give two flying F's how Trey ball pitches this year, I'm much more concerned with how he looks in a few years. Give him some time work some issues out and develop as a pitcher. Everything right now is about him getting his feet wet and learning. The Farm system is deep and isn't going to magically fall apart tomorrow because Trey Ball is laying egg in Greenville. And for the love of science....he's just a 19 year old guy!!!
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Post by jmei on Jun 27, 2014 9:46:11 GMT -5
Again, you're trying to scout a box score, which just cannot and should not be done. You can't draw any conclusions about his stuff based on how many hits he gave up in his first three starts in professional baseball. Pitchers with great stuff get hit hard all the time in the low minors. For instance, the very example you cite (Randy Johnson) gave up 9.5 H/9 and a 1.939 WHIP in his first 27.1 IP in the New York-Penn League in 1985, and he was a 21-year-old college draftee (Ball is 19 and pitching one level higher). I'm not saying that Ball is the next Randy Johnson, but I am saying that trying to draw any conclusions based on his first three professional starts is incredibly impetuous. He's a high school draftee-- everything is supposed to improve, from his velocity to his command/control to the crispness of his secondary stuff to his pitchability. If you want more details on what kind of pitcher he is and where he needs to improve, our own Ian Cundall got a good look at him in Spring Training and published this scouting report, which should answer most of your questions. His latest start was a disaster, but this is the same guy who our front office thought highly enough to draft seventh overall in the draft less than a year ago (and the same guy who got thirteen swings-and-misses on his fastball in his previous start, not that we should read too much into that, either)-- an incredibly projectable left-handed pitcher with a fluid delivery, tons of athleticism, two secondary pitches with potential, and upside for days. The statistical results of his first three starts do nothing to change that. The leg breaker stuff was obviously hyperbole, jmei. Maybe you should look back on the condescending way you addressed stevedillard, who like me appears to have been correct, and be a little more modest. Peace. His conclusions may have been right (although it is still far, far too early to tell definitively), but his process was still wrong. You still can't tell anything about a guy's stuff through looking at a box score, especially when you're looking at three starts. This is why the scouting info from those tweets was so much more damning than Ball's statistical results so far this season. I honestly don't see much condescension in my above posts. I'm just disagreeing with his conclusions. I make my points forcefully, but that's because I'm confident in my opinions. You seem to impute a lot of negative emotion to my posts that just aren't there.
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Post by oilcansman on Jun 27, 2014 9:46:11 GMT -5
What's the point of moving him to the outfield now? Why wouldn't we at least give him another full season or 2 pitching? It was obvious from the beginning that he was going to have a long way to go (cold weather state, started throwing a curve senior year of high school, payed OF half the time, 6'6 180), giving up on all his upside now is absurdly short-sighted. Or pessimistic. Or both. And if he really can't figure it out as a pitcher, maybe we can try him in the outfield, but they obviously aren't going to bail on a guy who still has as good as shot as most guys to develop into something. This isn't the NBA or the NFL: you can't label someone a bust within a year of their being drafted and expect people to take you seriously. I know it's not a great long term example, but Bard was horrendous early in his minor league career, then developed into one of the best relievers in the game until we screwed him up trying to turn him into a starter The concern I have is that Ball has shown NO ability to succeed since turning pro. He's pitched at two levels and been consistently crushed. If he was only a pitcher, I would certainly agree with you, because sometime guys do turn it around. More often, though, they don't. Ball apparently legitimately would have been a high round (sandwich?) pick as a hitter. Today is his 20th birthday. He's young and there's time for him to fully develop as a hitter. This kid may end up going from trick to treat with a position switch. The Sox have clearly done this analysis and most likely, they have evaluated this contingency and internally, most likely without Ball's knowledge, have decided when to pull the plug on pitching in order to switch to hitting. It's very interesting and introduces a scenario we have not considered with any other million dollar bonus baby since I began following this site years ago.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 27, 2014 9:56:31 GMT -5
I'm concerned as hell when scouts match up with putrid numbers, not trolling. The kid's a straight bust. It happens to all teams. Not really that big of a deal, because the Sox drafted pretty well in '10, '11 and '12. The odd part about Ball is it was so evident in last year's GCL. Even though he pitched only a few innings, he couldn't get kids out that were his own age. I pointed it out then and again when he couldn't get out of the GCL in April, and I thought some of the bloggers here were going to call in the leg breakers to deal with me. Even more strange is that many bloggers on this board have acted like Ball is their son. Ball has $2,000,000 to show for his efforts, so he'll be fine. The Sox will, too. No sure about some of the bloggers,though. Other straight busts from the 2013 draft #1 Mark Appel 10.48 ERA #5 Client Fraizer 243/319/371 #9 Autin Meadows Has not played #11 Dominic Smith 272/339/326 I also want to say that the people who are calling Ball a bust less than a year after he signed are the same people who were calling for a high ceiling talent. We are talking about a 47 IP sample size for a 19 year old in his first pro season. His stock is down, I'll give you that but anyone suggesting writing him off or saying it was a bad pick does not understand baseball.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 27, 2014 9:58:55 GMT -5
Oh yeah Trey Ball has failed at two levels!??!? how about those 7 innings pitched last year. I don't know about you guys but I can completely decipher a 19 year olds future from scouting the box score after a few innings. I mean Sam Travis has looked pretty bad stat wise in 30 at bats....maybe it's time to move him to bench coach. [Blatant Sarcasm}
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Post by oilcansman on Jun 27, 2014 10:02:32 GMT -5
jrffam05: Some '13 draftees have gotten off to a bad beginning, no doubt. However, nearly all have shown some signs, though. Ball has been a straight flatline. You should also look at the ten prospects that were picked and signed after Ball. A pretty good group thus far. The key is that Ball was being heavily scouted as an outfield prospect by MLB. Very unusual. You have completely ignored this.
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Post by oilcansman on Jun 27, 2014 10:07:34 GMT -5
Oh yeah Trey Ball has failed at two levels!??!? how about those 7 innings pitched last year. I don't know about you guys but I can completely decipher a 19 year olds future from scouting the box score after a few innings. I mean Sam Travis has looked pretty bad stat wise in 30 at bats....maybe it's time to move him to bench coach. [Blatant Sarcasm} If Sam Travis ends his season today with his current stats, has a bad spring training next year, doesn't have the goods to make the Greenville roster next year until May, and hits .150 with 0 home runs at the end of June next year, I'd be down on him big time. If MLB scouts opined he could have been a second round draft choice as a pitcher, I'd be calling for a position swith, greatscottcooper. If he didn't have the option to switch position, I'd just tell him to keep working on his hitting and hope for a BIG change.
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Post by mjammz on Jun 27, 2014 10:08:31 GMT -5
Mookie Betts had a .648 OPS 0 HR in his first season. Those numbers suck.. but based on the methodology around here the Red Sox should have given up on him after that season.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 27, 2014 10:17:26 GMT -5
Oh yeah Trey Ball has failed at two levels!??!? how about those 7 innings pitched last year. I don't know about you guys but I can completely decipher a 19 year olds future from scouting the box score after a few innings. I mean Sam Travis has looked pretty bad stat wise in 30 at bats....maybe it's time to move him to bench coach. [Blatant Sarcasm} If Sam Travis ends his season today with his current stats, has a bad spring training next year, doesn't have the goods to make the Greenville roster next year until May, and hits .150 with 0 home runs at the end of June next year, I'd be down on him big time. If MLB scouts opined he could have been a second round draft choice as a pitcher, I'd be calling for a position swith, greatscottcooper. If he didn't have the option to switch position, I'd just tell him to keep working on his hitting and hope for a BIG change. Ok....but Sam Travis is also a college player with about 2 years on Trey Ball. So you'd be willing to let him work on some things (when he is a level down from Trey Ball and 2 years older) and hope for a big change, but you have absolutely no desire to wait and see what a 19 year old can develop into based on 50 innings pitched in the gulf coast league and Greenville??? Could you imagine if every pitcher was given up on after 50 innings pitched and batter were given up on after 200 at bats in rookie ball and low A???
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Post by jmei on Jun 27, 2014 10:25:43 GMT -5
Mookie Betts had a .648 OPS 0 HR in his first season. Those numbers suck.. but based on the methodology around here the Red Sox should have given up on him after that season. Not just that, but he started his second season by hitting .145/.340/.263/.603 through early May in Greenville (110 PAs).
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Post by taftreign on Jun 27, 2014 10:36:18 GMT -5
I don't think it makes much sense to even look at Trey Ball's stat performance until the end of the 2015 season or half way through the 2016 season. Personally I doubt the Red Sox give much of a flip what Ball's stat line is either. Your introducing a young cold weather pitcher with a lean frame into a professional strength conditioning program which in time should have an impact on his ability to succeed. Undoubtedly they are working on improving his secondaries especially the curveball which is recent to his arsenal. Without seeing his pitching charts or scouting the games I can't tell you what they have him working on. Maybe it's fastball command, maybe he's not throwing many change ups which is a solid pitch for him to work more on the curve, maybe it's just working on pitch sequencing against batters, maybe their working on adjusting his mechanics or one of many other possibilities.
Trey is much lower on the learning curve than a few other high round draftees and I see no reason to make decisions until he has been given the chance to gain that experience. I'm certainly astounded at how quickly people are to right off a prospect as a failure. I guess I would understand if we were a franchise like the Angels or Milwaukee who has a lean farm system and understandably would put more hope in this guy but we have a franchise with an amazingly deep prospect pool that is extremely heavy on pitching at that. Your entitled your opinion I just have to say I'm not ready to agree by any means.
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Post by oilcansman on Jun 27, 2014 10:37:29 GMT -5
Mookie Betts had a .648 OPS 0 HR in his first season. Those numbers suck.. but based on the methodology around here the Red Sox should have given up on him after that season. Betts had a .267 with an obp of .352 with a better than 80 percent stolen base success rate (20/24) in Lowell during his first year. For a 5'9" 155 pound fifth round draft choice these were very solid numbers. A top of the order hitter with a .352 obp with a high stolen base success rate in an age appropriate league is pretty good. He just didn't have power - at all - during his first year.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 27, 2014 10:59:41 GMT -5
jrffam05: Some '13 draftees have gotten off to a bad beginning, no doubt. However, nearly all have shown some signs, though. Ball has been a straight flatline. You should also look at the ten prospects that were picked and signed after Ball. A pretty good group thus far. The key is that Ball was being heavily scouted as an outfield prospect by MLB. Very unusual. You have completely ignored this. I have not completely ignored this. I think you are completely ignoring the fact that the Red Sox are better at this than you, and me, and everyone else on this board. They do this, they do it well, and they make millions doing this. If the Red Sox thought Ball was a better outfield prospect than pitching they would move him. What possible reason would make them keep him there if they really thought that? What people here are trying to tell you is that it is IMPOSSIBLE to determine that with the sample size Ball has so far. From a few WEEI interviews I heard the Red Sox seem pleased with Ball so far. Position switches happen in the minors all the time, the Sox are comfortable doing it. That is not the question. If they ever feel he would be more valuable in the OF they will make the move, they have done it before. The Red Sox have spent more man hours scouting and discussing Ball in one week than we have ever. We don't work for the Red Sox. Pure assumption on my part, but if you did work for the Red Sox, and you went in suggesting that Ball is a straight bust already as a pitcher and he should be moved, I really can't imagine you would still be working for them after that.
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Post by awall on Jun 27, 2014 11:11:45 GMT -5
here's a clip of him pitching last week, with a clip that has some good video pre-draft. looks like a lot of work going on to refine his motion, in my opinion. i wanted Shipley, but it's far too early to tell with this kid. he's learning mechanics, not simply refining his approach to pitching.
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 27, 2014 11:41:00 GMT -5
I remember reading he projected as maybe a 5th round pick as an outfielder, but regardless, he has way less upside if we convert him. It's glaringly obvious that he's going to need a lot of development, but I feel like that was always the case. Given the strength of the system and how high the pick was, the Sox gambled on upside, presumably knowing that it would probably take at least 2 years to see significant results. If he repeats Greenville next year and dominates (completely possible, no matter what conclusions you have drawn from his stat line/what's been written about him) he'll be a 20 year old, 6'6 lefty, whose frame probably still won't have filled out, heading at least to A+ ball in 2016. That sounds pretty good to me. Obviously, I'd rather he looked like Henry Owens, who had great K numbers his first year out of high school, but Owens still posted a mid-4.00s ERA, walked a ton of hitters, and had been a full time pitcher playing year round in California. So I think the path is pretty obvious, as long as the stats have improved by the time he can legally drink
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 27, 2014 11:47:40 GMT -5
I'am absolutely flabbergasted that we are even having this debate in here. Should any team at any point in time give up on teenage pitching prospect who has 50 innings of experience in Low A ball and below? No, that is ridiculous and the conversation should really end right there.
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