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Ranking Changes - 6/21/13 - Trey Ball Debuts at # 8
dd
Veteran
Posts: 979 
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Post by dd on Jun 21, 2013 12:02:12 GMT -5
Summary- Anthony Ranaudo and Matt Barnes switched places this week, now at 5 & 6 respectively.
- Trey Ball joins the organization at # 8.
- Chris Martin is up 2 to a new high at 33.
- Brock Huntzinger is behind him at 34, +4.
- Henry Ramos, unranked 2 weeks ago, follows Hunzinger at # 35, up 5.
- Pat Light, Cody Kukuk, and Jose Vinicio are all down 4 at 36 - 38.
- Kyle Stroup rose 3 to 44.
- Noe Ramirez up 4 to 45.
- Terry Doyle dropped from 49 to 49.
- Anthony Carter is ranked for the first time at # 52.
- Miguel Pena, suspension over, fell from 49 to 56.
- Nathan Striz and David Chester, 59 and 60 last week, fell from the rankings.
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Post by jbberlo22 on Jun 21, 2013 12:38:16 GMT -5
Ball at 8? i wouldve said he was ahead of rubby for sure. Much higher ceiling even if he is far away. Any predictions for denney? i say #13 after workman but before marrero, possibly 14
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Post by britalb on Jun 21, 2013 13:53:32 GMT -5
You guys clearly know your stuff, but just so I can understand the rankings better: why would Ball have a current grade of six with a ceiling of seven? As a prospect who is yet to pitch professionally, but with one of the highest upsides in the draft, shouldn't he be incomplete/unknown with a ceiling of eight? If you have to give him a current grade, shouldn't it be a two or three?
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Post by jchang on Jun 21, 2013 15:15:14 GMT -5
I think Ranaudo's floor is more likely grade/scale 4, not 3. Lets wait another month, then reconsider whether Workman looks to be grade/scale 5. I am ok with Hank currently at grade 5, but I am hoping that next year, after getting accustomed to Portland (with bumps) he will establish himself as a clear 6. We should wait until next year before nitpicking Ball or any HS prospects exact position
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 21, 2013 23:44:35 GMT -5
jbberlo22, I think there's something to be said for the fact that Rubby looks like, at worst, a good MLB reliever right now, and likely much more than that. Considering that a player as far away as Ball could fail to even reach, say Triple-A, it's no slap in the face to rank him eighth. Consider that Marrero last year failed to crack a much weaker top 10. Looking back, I bet he'd have been top-five entering the rankings the last two Junes, at least. britalb, frankly, 8's don't happen with players coming out of the draft unless they're Strasburg or Harper. I wouldn't put an 8 ceiling on anyone in this year's draft at this time, to be frank. It should be telling that Bogaerts is the only player in the system we've got an 8 ceiling on. Also, the "current" grade is his current projection, not what he'd be as a player in the majors right now. jchang, I think you're on the right track with all of those. As for Ranaudo, he's probably getting there, but the track record needs to get a bit longer. His lower floor reflects the fact that last season happened, basically, whereas the 4-floor guys haven't had a year like that where they bottomed out, injury-caused or otherwise.
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Post by okin15 on Jun 24, 2013 11:55:42 GMT -5
Floor is a weird thing to measure. I mean, an injury/0 is every guy's floor. I preferred the old system, but understand the interest in the new one.
On the flip side I agree with Britalb; it seems really bizarre to me that a guy's ceiling would EVER go up. Seems like they'd all start with a very high ceiling based on raw skills, body types, strength, speed, velocity, etc. and then subtract from that for losing speed, or not showing the same velocity. Don't really have a problem with the way this is done, just my two cents about the LOGIC. My suggestion is probably less USEFUL in the end.
ADD: to elaborate (and feel free to just ignore this, def no need to respond) it doesn't seem right to me that a young guy like Marrero, or even moreso Margot have the same listed ceiling as a Workman or Brentz. There's not an insignificant chance that one of these upside guys reaches stardom, even while their chances of making the show at all are low just due to their distance from it. I THINK that is the point that Britalb is getting stuck on, and it's always been an issue I've had with the rankings on those first two pages.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 24, 2013 21:11:07 GMT -5
Ceilings can always rise and floors can always fall.
Otherwise, almost everyone's floor/ceiling would be 0/8, making them pretty much worthless. You gotta have some kind of projection for floor and ceiling while taking career ending or excessive injuries as an obvious exception that shouldn't be considered to make the ratings somewhat meaningful. Anyone could die in a car accident or be diagnosed with a brain tumor, but what's the point in considering that?
What would Nava's ceiling have been rated when he was 22? Certainly not a 6 or 7. And he's a borderline All-Star player now. How about Pedro Martinez when he was signed by the Dodgers at 17? Doubt it would be an 8 given he was 5'10".
I'm interested in where Denney winds up.
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Post by mainesox on Jun 24, 2013 21:22:38 GMT -5
Ceilings can always rise and floors can always fall. Otherwise, almost everyone's floor/ceiling would be 0/8, making them pretty much worthless. You gotta have some kind of projection for floor and ceiling while taking career ending or excessive injuries as an obvious exception that shouldn't be considered to make the ratings somewhat meaningful. Anyone could die in a car accident or be diagnosed with a brain tumor, but what's the point in considering that? What would Nava's ceiling have been rated when he was 22? Certainly not a 6 or 7. And he's a borderline All-Star player now. How about Pedro Martinez when he was signed by the Dodgers at 17? Doubt it would be an 8 given he was 5'10". I'm interested in where Denney winds up. Pretty sure mine would still be 0/1 |
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 24, 2013 22:13:16 GMT -5
Ceilings can always rise and floors can always fall. Otherwise, almost everyone's floor/ceiling would be 0/8, making them pretty much worthless. You gotta have some kind of projection for floor and ceiling while taking career ending or excessive injuries as an obvious exception that shouldn't be considered to make the ratings somewhat meaningful. Anyone could die in a car accident or be diagnosed with a brain tumor, but what's the point in considering that? What would Nava's ceiling have been rated when he was 22? Certainly not a 6 or 7. And he's a borderline All-Star player now. How about Pedro Martinez when he was signed by the Dodgers at 17? Doubt it would be an 8 given he was 5'10". I'm interested in where Denney winds up. Pretty sure mine would still be 0/1 Haha. Well, I hit a double off Mike Mussina in high school, so maybe I would have had a 0/1.5. |
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jun 27, 2013 20:30:34 GMT -5
I don't know if it's worth saying but to me Rubby has definitely got an edge on Barnes. Much better stuff and more advanced as a pitcher overall. He even has some mlb experience and he's only a year older. Barnes does not have the off speed pitch Rubby has. I don't want to dump on Barnes but to me there is no comparison. Barnes might have better fastball control and stronger body type. That is a lot but not enough to beat Rubby as a prospect to me.
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