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6/26 ML Gameday Thread: Portland plays 2
jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 27, 2013 7:57:16 GMT -5
Mookie Betts is good, really good. Is Vinicio starting to Mookie? .324 .375 .459 .834 in his last ten games, 9 for his last 15 with 4 2bs , 10 for his last 18
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Post by edwardcc on Jun 27, 2013 7:59:14 GMT -5
Mookie Betts is good, really good. Is this the Mookie Betts in Low A? Don't over-rate Aball stats and certainly not Low A. Any numbers put up below AA while nice don't tell us much if anything. That's not correct. His stats tell us plenty and are meaningful. He is age appropriate for his level 20 YO in low A. He is not striking out much, taking walks in bunches, hitting for a average and showing surprising power. While I am not sure how much power he will have long term, he is a darn good prospect and his stats back that up.
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Post by hammerhead on Jun 27, 2013 9:37:18 GMT -5
He's also a 2ndbaseman. It's very impressive for a 20 year old to have those kind of numbers, but throw in the fact that he's playing superb defense at a premium position and you have what's looking to be a special prospect.
I am very aggressive in thinking promotions, but I think it's time to promote Betts, Ranaudo and by August, Owens. I think it's better to challenge a player than to have them stagnate at a level that they have mastered. Especially when it comes to hitters, sooner or later the other teams give them nothing to hit. It happened to Cecchini and Xander at the end of their Salem runs.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 27, 2013 10:29:06 GMT -5
Is this the Mookie Betts in Low A? Don't over-rate Aball stats and certainly not Low A. Any numbers put up below AA while nice don't tell us much if anything. That's not correct. His stats tell us plenty and are meaningful. He is age appropriate for his level 20 YO in low A. He is not striking out much, taking walks in bunches, hitting for a average and showing surprising power. While I am not sure how much power he will have long term, he is a darn good prospect and his stats back that up. So what does this tell us exactly? "He is not striking out much" A. That he's a great contact hitter or B. He can hit crappy pitching really well "taking walks in bunches" A. He's got a great and and pitch recognition or B. He can lay off crappy pitching that's not near the zone "hitting for a average" A. That he's a really good hitter or B. That he can hit crappy pitching "showing surprising power" A. That now he's developing into a power hitter or. B. It's just a fluke run vs bad pitching It's not a knock on Mookie for me to say it doesn't tell us much. He's doing exactly what we can hope for him to do. It's not his fault he's in low A ball. It is age appropriate for him and he's showing really good signs of being able to sustain success at higher levels. It's just fair warning to people that over-react to success in the lower minors. We can all name countless players who have done similar things to what Mookie is doing now that we've gotten excited about and have turned into nothing. Mookie is making the most of the situation he's in and he's passing the test with straight A's that is in front of him. It's all he can do. As intelligent fans we should be happy about it, but realize it doesn't mean as much as we'd like it to.
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Post by elguapo on Jun 27, 2013 10:40:59 GMT -5
We can all name countless players who have done similar things to what Mookie is doing now that we've gotten excited about and have turned into nothing. How many 20-year-olds at premium positions (who can stick there) can you name who can match what Betts is doing this year? Countless? I don't think so, at least not in this system. Of course any prospect can flame out - do we really need to lecture each other on the subject? And if you disregard all stats against bad pitching, you have to toss out minor league performance entirely because every level has a lot of guys who haven't figured it out. Seems meaningless.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Jun 27, 2013 10:49:31 GMT -5
rjp313jr, can you stop playing a teacher? Nobody argues that Mookie Betts should be a middle order bat in the future just by looking at his A-ball numbers. He is both plus defender at 2b and plus runner. If he can hit some he should be regular. He is hitting very well at his age approate level. His BB/K is very good as well. He has very compact stroke. His power number might be fluke. Still there are lots of reasons to be excited about him.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 27, 2013 11:15:32 GMT -5
rjp313jr, can you stop playing a teacher? Nobody argues that Mookie Betts should be a middle order bat in the future just by looking at his A-ball numbers. He is both plus defender at 2b and plus runner. If he can hit some he should be regular. He is hitting very well at his age approate level. His BB/K is very good as well. He has very compact stroke. His power number might be fluke. Still there are lots of reasons to be excited about him. That's fine, but what you actually want in a prospect is someone who's hitting well at a level that's NOT age-appropriate (ie, he's younger than his competition). And whatever age he is, it's still just low-A. It wasn't long ago that Brandon Jacobs hung a .881 OPS at that level. Granted a lot of the guys you could point to who've been good at low-A had much worse K/BB numbers, but we're still talking about a level where most of the pitchers are struggling to find the strike zone. I like the guy, but until he starts doing this at higher levels, he's still sort of in that "sleeper/guy to keep an eye on" category for me. Also, there's all this talk of 2B as a "premium position", which is sort of true, but it's not shortstop or catcher. He's still going to have to hit quite a bit to be a major league regular. And since there's no such thing as a utility guy who doesn't play shortstop, that's his only path to the major leagues.
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Post by elguapo on Jun 27, 2013 11:38:12 GMT -5
That's fine, but what you actually want in a prospect is someone who's hitting well at a level that's NOT age-appropriate (ie, he's younger than his competition). According to SP (http://wiki.soxprospects.com/Age+Advancement+Scale) Betts is ~ +1 year on the scale. ... like a 28% K rate and did not play a premium position - in Jacobs' case, left field. Kind of proves the point, doesn't it? The most comparable example I could find was Christian Vazquez, who was only slightly older than Betts, put up a reasonable K-BB ratio (nowhere near what Betts is doing) and broke .500 SLG. I think you have to go outside the system for good parallels. What Betts is doing is very rare, though that doesn't necessarily prove future success - I'd love to see where a cohort of similar performers ended up.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 27, 2013 12:05:22 GMT -5
That's fine, but what you actually want in a prospect is someone who's hitting well at a level that's NOT age-appropriate (ie, he's younger than his competition). ... Lotta people talking past each other here. The claim that "what you actually want in a prospect is someone who's hitting well at a level that's NOT age-appropriate" is true if you are looking for an elite prospect. A 20YO tiny-skinny plus defender with speed hitting well with both patience and surprising pop is still very interesting even if not elite. He's not a sure bet to succeed, just as all the high schoolers just taken in the first round are not a sure bet to succeed, because they have just been "hitting against crappy pitching." If you gave me a lottery ticket and said "there's a 20% chance that 5 years from now this will be worth $1M," I'd be pretty excited. Not as excited as if you had "70% chance it will be worth $10M," and I wouldn't quit my job. But I'd be pretty happy to have that chance. That (keeping in mind that those particular numbers are just made up) is why it's fun to add Mookie to our list of interesting prospects.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 27, 2013 12:06:45 GMT -5
I think the BB/K rate is impressive, but how about the 22 2Bs? If one discounts the BB rate at low-A, are we also discounting the rest of his production?
Not all Sally League pitching is "crappy." Drive have faced some top-flight prospects this year. Sure, there is a good share of "crappy" pitching, but I guess Mookie Betts is taking advantage of this crappy pitching and others aren't?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 27, 2013 12:12:17 GMT -5
I think the BB/K rate is impressive, but how about the 22 2Bs? If one discounts the BB rate at low-A, are we also discounting the rest of his production?Not all Sally League pitching is "crappy." Drive have faced some top-flight prospects this year. Sure, there is a good share of "crappy" pitching, but I guess Mookie Betts is taking advantage of this crappy pitching and others aren't? Yes. It's low-a, that's what you do. And the fact that other prospects aren't taking advantage of the bad pitching at the level is a mark against them, not in favor of Betts.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 27, 2013 12:19:37 GMT -5
Lotta people talking past each other here. The claim that "what you actually want in a prospect is someone who's hitting well at a level that's NOT age-appropriate" is true if you are looking for an elite prospect. A 20YO tiny-skinny plus defender with speed hitting well with both patience and surprising pop is still very interesting even if not elite. He's not a sure bet to succeed, just as all the high schoolers just taken in the first round are not a sure bet to succeed, because they have just been "hitting against crappy pitching." If you gave me a lottery ticket and said "there's a 20% chance that 5 years from now this will be worth $1M," I'd be pretty excited. Not as excited as if you had "70% chance it will be worth $10M," and I wouldn't quit my job. But I'd be pretty happy to have that chance. That (keeping in mind that those particular numbers are just made up) is why it's fun to add Mookie to our list of interesting prospects. This. A million times, this. Nobody is saying Betts is elite. He's definitely interesting and is having a great year. That's fine. This argument is getting really dumb because it's so abstract and nobody's even talking on the same level. It's interesting, on with Alex Speier this weekend, he said that he's even stunned at how much power he's hitting for this year. It's interesting, and it's certainly unrealistic to project this kind of power in the majors, but he's certainly no punch-and-judy hitter either.
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Post by sammo420 on Jun 27, 2013 12:26:05 GMT -5
I'm all of a sudden glad we didn't draft Frazier as everything he did he did against really REALLY crappy pitching.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 27, 2013 12:41:22 GMT -5
I think the BB/K rate is impressive, but how about the 22 2Bs? If one discounts the BB rate at low-A, are we also discounting the rest of his production?Not all Sally League pitching is "crappy." Drive have faced some top-flight prospects this year. Sure, there is a good share of "crappy" pitching, but I guess Mookie Betts is taking advantage of this crappy pitching and others aren't? Yes. It's low-a, that's what you do. And the fact that other prospects aren't taking advantage of the bad pitching at the level is a mark against them, not in favor of Betts. So should BA discount Joey Gallo's HRs since it is low-A? www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-june-14-joey-gallo-slugs-seven-home-runs/www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-notebook-joey-gallos-power-binge-continues/I actually think we are in agreement about Mookie's prospect status (I see him as more of a sleeper still), but I don't agree with your characterization of the Sally League.
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Post by elguapo on Jun 27, 2013 12:44:19 GMT -5
I think the last Sox player to put up Betts-like numbers at Greenville was another second baseman: Jeff Natale. Except he was a 22-year-old 1B-DH. And he carried an .800+ OPS through AAA.
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Post by edwardcc on Jun 27, 2013 12:51:09 GMT -5
rjp313jr, Also, there's all this talk of 2B as a "premium position", which is sort of true, but it's not shortstop or catcher. He's still going to have to hit quite a bit to be a major league regular. And since there's no such thing as a utility guy who doesn't play shortstop, that's his only path to the major leagues. Well, the median 2nd baseman in the MLB puts up a .265/318/435 line. Betts so far leads the league in walks (53), 6th in OPS (1 of 2 guys under 22 YO), has 53 walks compared to only 32 SO (only 6 others have more Walks than SO no other person has more than 6 walks than SO), 2nd in OBP (9th in SLG, 12 in AVG, 5th in Runs, 5th in 2B) and is at the 3/4/5 triple slash ....PLUS he plays plus defense at a premium position and is a goo basestealer. He is a major prospect based on his play this year. The only negative is does not project for power. Will he make it, who knows but it he is certainly a good prospect.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 27, 2013 13:13:18 GMT -5
I think the last Sox player to put up Betts-like numbers at Greenville was another second baseman: Jeff Natale. Except he was a 22-year-old 1B-DH. And he carried an .800+ OPS through AAA. Well, the last players to put up those kind of numbers, if we're talking a 3/4/5 slash were Brentz (.359/.414/.647) and Head (.338/.409/.612) in 2011. Their OBPs were more AVG-heavy and they hit for more power (Betts is at .309/.436/.513). If you're talking OBP only, Jon Still was close in 2007 at .432. Natale had a stupid .343/.487/.571 in half a season in 2006, but was actually 23 and he'd gotten 200 PA's there the year before. That said, this all pretty much makes your point, as most guys who've had numbers like that or close to that (McGuiness, Federowicz as well) were college guys, save for Head, who was the same age as Betts, but a much different player of course - similar stats for a second baseman like Betts compared to a first baseman like Head favor the second baseman. (BTW, Head is strugglefest in the Texas League this year: .196/.264/.264, 12 BB, 42 K in 40 games. They're still playing him at 3B, although he's got 6 E in 19 games there and has DH'ed 18 games)
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Post by elguapo on Jun 27, 2013 14:00:48 GMT -5
I think the last Sox player to put up Betts-like numbers at Greenville was another second baseman: Jeff Natale. Well, the last players to put up those kind of numbers, if we're talking a 3/4/5 slash were Brentz (.359/.414/.647) and Head (.338/.409/.612) in 2011. In this case I was looking for a close parallel - OPS>.900, BB>K, isoP>.150 -- again, I think we really have to go outside the system for even a modest comparable sample. Brentz, Head & Still were more power-oriented and didn't have the reverse K/BB ratio (Still did barely). Betts has shown power but I agree with the common opinion that it's unlikely to persist or translate like it would for a Brentz.
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