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Recent Posts
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Post by Mike Andrews on Aug 6, 2022 15:33:08 GMT -5
Bleis ceiling to 8 is new. Leaving open that shadow of a chance that he is franchise-player elite. Very exciting, just remember that's not the projection. He also still has a 2 floor, although that could get bumped up very soon.
Rankings are based on a mix of projection, ceiling, and proximity. Mix of art and science. One of our over-arching goal posts is: if all of these players were entered in a draft, who would you pick first? Reminder that the site ranking is an average of the personal rankings of me, Chris, Ian, and James - after about a 10-day process and discussion at the end of each month. We didn't get to discuss as much as we'd like to have this past week.
Nortchut was on the radar just not in our collective top 60 this month. Swing and miss concerns.
Koss dropped from 30 to 40 in the rankings. 4 draft picks and 2 acquisitions entered the rankings ahead of him. Perales, Rodriguez-Cruz, Dobbins, and Paez got big jumps. That's 10. We don't think any less of him than we did last month.
Same thing for Blaze Jordan. Dropped 4 spots. 3 new players added ahead of him, plus Thad Ward got a small jump. Jordan's grade didn't change.
Yorke was #4 last month and still is #4 this month.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Aug 6, 2022 13:01:06 GMT -5
August rankings are up!
Three caveats: (1) we didn't agree on everything, some disparity over where Roman Anthony should be ranked; (2) we're working with limited info on several of the draftees and acquisitions, so to some extent those initial rankings are throws at a dartboard that could vary significantly once we see those players live; and (3) this was a tough month to get the rankings out just due to work, vacations, short turnaround time, etc. Would have loved to have dug in more and discussed but we wanted to get something out in early August.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Aug 6, 2022 5:24:28 GMT -5
Yes still eligible, we set eligibility as of August 1. He'll graduate next month though.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Aug 5, 2022 17:30:48 GMT -5
If this was already asked I didn’t catch it but all the kids drafted no one cracks the top 60? They haven't updated the rankings yet. Guessing the top 3 will all be in the 11-30 range. Mike announced that the rankings would come out late this month. Should see them sometime between today and Monday (unless something has changed) Looking like rankings will be tomorrow late afternoon or early evening. Could still be Sunday.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Aug 1, 2022 16:10:31 GMT -5
The close of draft signing season also brings the end to the 2022 SoxProspects.com Donation Drive. We're happy to announce that we surpassed our goal and raised about $8,800 this year! Those funds + donations from Patreon will go towards covering our travel and IT costs. We ended up receiving over 230 donations averaging about $38 each. A huge THANK YOU goes out to our generous donors and patrons. We know times are tough and we really appreciate your contributions!
We’re also excited to add that the site got 2.1 million pageviews in July 2022, which was our second best month over the last eight years. Also, our podcast had its most total listens of any month ever. Thank you again to our readers and listeners!
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 31, 2022 8:09:56 GMT -5
Updated
Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap) Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus 1. Mikey Romero $2,300,000 (signed) 2. Cutter Coffey $1,850,000 (signed) 2. Roman Anthony $2,500,000 (signed) 3. Dalton Rogers $447,500 (signed) 4. Chase Meidroth $272,500 (signed) 5. Noah Dean $325,000 (signed) 6. Alex Hoppe $32,250 (signed) 7. Caleb Bolden $7,500 (signed) 8. Jonathan Brand $7,500 (signed) 9. Brooks Brannon $712,500 (signed) 10. Isaac Coffey $7,500 (signed)
After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap) None
After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap) 11. Marques Johnson ? (signed) 12. Hayden Mullins $97,500 (signed) 15. Nathan Landry $112,500 (signed) 16. Garrett Ramsey $97,500 (signed) 17. Deundre Jones $125,000 (signed) 19. Jaret Godman $122,500 (signed) 20. Connor Butler $72,500 (signed)
Total spent towards cap using these projections: $8,462,250 Red Sox Cap: $8,082,600 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $8,486,730 Space if remaining predictions hold: $24,480
Draft & Follow candidate not subject to 8/1 signing deadline, may sign for up to $225k and not count against the cap 18. Austin Ehrlicher
Projected not to sign 13. Gavin Kilen 14. Travis Sanders (confirmed)
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 31, 2022 8:01:43 GMT -5
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 30, 2022 8:30:15 GMT -5
Updated
Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap) Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus 1. Mikey Romero $2,300,000 (signed) 2. Cutter Coffey $1,850,000 (signed) 2. Roman Anthony $2,500,000 (signed) 3. Dalton Rogers $447,500 (signed) 4. Chase Meidroth projected $200,000 (signed, bonus not reported yet) 5. Noah Dean $325,000 (signed) 6. Alex Hoppe $32,250 (signed) 7. Caleb Bolden $7,500 (signed) 8. Jonathan Brand $7,500 (signed) 9. Brooks Brannon $712,500 (signed) 10. Isaac Coffey $7,500 (signed)
After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap) None
After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap) 11. Marques Johnson (signed) 12. Hayden Mullins $97,500 (signed) 15. Nathan Landry $112,500 (signed) 16. Garrett Ramsey (signed) 17. Deundre Jones $125,000 (signed) 19. Jaret Godman (signed) 20. Connor Butler (signed)
Draft & Follow candidate not subject to 8/1 signing deadline, may sign for up to $225k and not count against the cap 18. Austin Ehrlicher
Total spent towards cap using these projections: $8,389,750 Red Sox Cap: $8,082,600 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $8,486,730 Space if remaining predictions hold: $96,980
Projected not to sign 13. Gavin Kilen 14. Travis Sanders
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 30, 2022 8:18:24 GMT -5
Aiming to have player pages for Hayden Mullins, Deundre Jones, Marques Johnson, Nathan Landry, Garrett Ramsey, Jaret Godman, and Connor Butler up on Tuesday.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 30, 2022 8:16:18 GMT -5
The next rankings update will be August 5. We needed extra time to bake in draft signings and any 8/2 trade deadline transactions.
I also happen to be on vacation on August 5, so there's a chance the update could get pushed to August 7.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 30, 2022 8:14:02 GMT -5
Brooks Brannon got $712,500
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 29, 2022 12:47:44 GMT -5
18th round pick Austin Ehrlicher is a two-sport athlete who has some potential, as well as some publicly-stated interest in playing college basketball at a high level.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 28, 2022 16:05:55 GMT -5
Might mean nothing, but each of Johnson, Mullins, Landry, and Ramsey list the Red Sox in their bio line on Instagram.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 28, 2022 15:30:11 GMT -5
Updated Predictions
Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap) Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus 1. Mikey Romero $2,300,000 (reported) 2. Cutter Coffey $1,847,500 (reported) 2. Roman Anthony $2,500,000 (reported) 3. Dalton Rogers $300,000 4. Chase Meidroth $200,000 5. Noah Dean $325,000 (reported) 6. Alex Hoppe $32,250 (reported) 7. Caleb Bolden $7,500 (reported) 8. Jonathan Brand $7,500 (reported) 9. Brooks Brannon $750,000 (rumored) 10. Isaac Coffey $7,500 (reported)
After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap) None
After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap) 11. Marques Johnson (IG?) 12. Hayden Mullins (reported) 15. Nathan Landry (IG?) 16. Garrett Ramsey (IG?) 17. Deundre Jones (reported) 19. Jaret Godman (reported) 20. Connor Butler
Draft & Follow candidate not subject to 8/1 signing deadline, may sign for up to $225k and not count against the cap 18. Austin Ehrlicher
Total spent towards cap using these projections: $8,277,250 Red Sox Cap: $8,082,600 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $8,486,730 Space if remaining predictions hold: $209,480
Projected not to sign 13. Gavin Kilen 14. Travis Sanders
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 27, 2022 15:57:18 GMT -5
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 26, 2022 10:22:27 GMT -5
Possible we figured this out but will continue to monitor through July. Everything automatically resets each month so it should be fine on August 1. Seems like it only becomes an issue if we surpass 1 million pageviews in any given month, at which point we need to buy additional pageviews, so in a way it's a nice problem to have. Thank you to all our readers and forum members!
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 26, 2022 10:10:22 GMT -5
Just a note to say that we are aware that ads are showing up at the top of the forum when users visit via forum.soxprospects.com. We paid Proboards to eliminate those ads but the ads are still persisting. Earlier this morning I put a ticket into Proboards to get to the bottom of the issue. Hope to have it figured out soon.
Mike
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 25, 2022 15:13:41 GMT -5
My guess is still more likely to be no on those two, but definitely would not rule them out.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 25, 2022 14:54:14 GMT -5
Updated Predictions
Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap) Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus 1. Mikey Romero $2,300,000 (reported) 2. Cutter Coffey $1,847,500 (reported) 2. Roman Anthony $2,500,000 (reported) 3. Dalton Rogers $300,000 4. Chase Meidroth $200,000 5. Noah Dean $343,800 6. Alex Hoppe $32,250 (reported) 7. Caleb Bolden $7,500 (reported) 8. Jonathan Brand $7,500 (reported) 9. Brooks Brannon $750,000 10. Isaac Coffey $7,500 (reported)
After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap) None
After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap) 11. Marques Johnson 12. Hayden Mullins 15. Nathan Landry 16. Garrett Ramsey 19. Jaret Godman 20. Connor Butler
Draft & Follow candidate not subject to 8/1 signing deadline, may sign for up to $225k and not count against the cap 18. Austin Ehlicher
Total spent towards cap using these projections: $8,296,050 Red Sox Cap: $8,082,600 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $8,486,730
Projected not to sign 13. Gavin Kilen 14. Travis Sanders 17. Deundre Jones
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 24, 2022 19:09:50 GMT -5
Updated predictions Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap) Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus1. Mikey Romero $2,500,000 2. Cutter Coffey $1,800,000 2. Roman Anthony $2,500,000 (reported) 3. Dalton Rogers $300,000 4. Chase Meidroth $200,000 5. Noah Dean $343,800 6. Alex Hoppe $32,250 (reported) 7. Caleb Bolden $7,500 (reported) 8. Jonathan Brand $7,500 (reported) 9. Brooks Brannon $750,000 10. Isaac Coffey $7,500 (reported) After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap)None After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap)11. Marques Johnson 12. Hayden Mullins 15. Nathan Landry 16. Garrett Ramsey 19. Jaret Godman 20. Connor Butler Draft & Follow candidate not subject to 8/1 signing deadline, may sign for up to $225k and not count against the cap18. Austin Ehlicher Total spent towards cap using these projections: $8,448,550 Red Sox Cap: $8,082,600 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $8,486,730 Projected not to sign13. Gavin Kilen 14. Travis Sanders 17. Deundre Jones
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 24, 2022 16:05:01 GMT -5
There is a long history of the club not signing college draftees. 23 unsigned college picks between 2012 and 2021 - so more than 2 per year on average. That includes some seniors and several late round picks w/ one year of eligibility left. That was the reasoning behind the projection. I actually don't think every draftee gets an offer at all, so I don't agree with the premise that these players are deciding between $100k this year or $5k next year. We've heard scouting directors say in the past that they are only looking to sign 13-16 draftees. Why do they do bother picking college guys late and sometimes not signing them? I'm not sure, all I'm saying is that there is history behind it. Some might be backup options to potentially fill out rosters in a pinch, some might be nods to scouts or college coaches, some might be nepotism picks or whatever.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 23, 2022 8:15:27 GMT -5
Updated predictions
Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap) Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus 1. Mikey Romero $2,500,000 2. Cutter Coffey $1,800,000 2. Roman Anthony $2,500,000 (reported) 3. Dalton Rogers $300,000 4. Chase Meidroth $200,000 5. Noah Dean $343,800 6. Alex Hoppe $32,250 (reported) 7. Caleb Bolden $7,500 (reported) 8. Jonathan Brand $7,500 (reported) 9. Brooks Brannon $750,000 10. Isaac Coffey $10,000
After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap) None
After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap) 11. Marques Johnson 12. Hayden Mullins 15. Nathan Landry 16. Garrett Ramsey 20. Connor Butler
Draft & Follow candidate not subject to 8/1 signing deadline, may sign for up to $225k and not count against the cap 18. Austin Ehlicher
Total spent towards cap using these projections: $8,451,050 Red Sox Cap: $8,082,600 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $8,486,730
Projected not to sign 13. Gavin Kilen 14. Travis Sanders 17. Deundre Jones 19. Jaret Godman
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 22, 2022 13:04:26 GMT -5
I guess Litwicki was unlucky that they chose him in the 10th, when savings on his slot could be applied to, for example, Hickey's bonus but his $47,500 bonus was actually the median bonus for guys in the 10th round (his slot was $148,400). Two guys got $5,000 (did they throw in a bus ticket?) and both of them actually played both last year and this year; one is up to high-A in the LAD system (while Litwicki's next appearance will be his pro debut).
It's nice that they seem to have a $100k floor for their draft picks (would be nicer if they did the same for the July 2 kids...). Gotta wonder how they chose Litwicki for that spot rather than one of the guys they drafted later. He probably wishes that he got double the money in the 19th round like Tyler Uberstine.
My two cents is that the low-bonus 6th to 10th round senior sign types really need to be pre-draft deals. The team needs to know that they can save those bonus dollars or else their draft can be held hostage. So they call up a senior who might otherwise be a UDFA type, a player that was not expecting a bonus above $50k or whatever. Team then cuts a deal with the player before drafting them, lets player know they’re not going to try to claw back any of the bonus if the player decides to retire in a year. Team gives them whatever other extra perks that they can legally give the player (locker assignments, scholarship money, travel perks, gear, little stuff). It feels like the player is getting screwed because post-10th round guys can sign for up to $125k, but not every post 10th round draftee gets $125k and these players were not expecting high dollars heading into the draft. Again, just a hunch on my part.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 20, 2022 9:47:38 GMT -5
Moved Godman to projected sign. He and Butler actually both have another year of college eligibility. I'll go with 1 of the 2 signing.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 20, 2022 9:47:02 GMT -5
Here are my "super wicked early speculative gut-check predictions" for the 2022 signing season. I don't have any inside info behind this yet, these predictions are just based on gut feel and years of history of making these projections. These initial guesstimates have been fairly solid in years past, but they're just that - projections with a significant amount of possible variability. Feedback is welcome and appreciated. I will update from time to time as more info comes in and as opinions evolve.
Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap) Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus 1. Mikey Romero $2,500,000 2. Cutter Coffey $1,800,000 2. Roman Anthony $2,500,000 3. Dalton Rogers $300,000 4. Chase Meidroth $200,000 5. Noah Dean $343,800 6. Alex Hoppe $10,000 7. Caleb Bolden $10,000 8. Jonathan Brand $10,000 9. Brooks Brannon $750,000 10. Isaac Coffey $10,000
After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap) None, although Gavin Kilen might be insurance if Brannon does not sign
After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap) 11. Marques Johnson 12. Hayden Mullins 15. Nathan Landry 16. Garrett Ramsey 20. Connor Butler
Draft & Follow candidate not subject to 8/1 signing deadline, may sign for up to $225k and not count against the cap 18. Austin Ehlicher
Total spent towards cap using these projections: $8,433,800 Red Sox Cap: $8,078,300 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $8,482,215
Super wicked early projected not to sign 13. Gavin Kilen 14. Travis Sanders 17. Deundre Jones 19. Jaret Godman
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