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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 22:18:45 GMT -5
this was where my issue was. Is robbie ross an upgrade or even a replacement for the type of producton and value Burke gave us in the situatons he was put in? Had Burke priced himself out of his role? I tend to think bc would have liked to resign him, but something caused it to not happen. Two candidates are price or years. In my mind, Ross is purely a bullpen arm. If his velocity returns and he can get hitters out, then it is in the Boston bullpen. Otherwise it is in Pawtucket. I may be in the minority, but I'm in the camp that thinks BB was as important as Taz even, although Taz did take less money than BB's asking price. I could be wrong
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 22:15:52 GMT -5
I swear it feels like sometimes people try to gag opinions with pillows in the night just for fun. Thought this was a give and take kinda site, not a hierarchy of the right opinions? The fact that others disagree with you does not mean you are being gagged or censored. Just as you're permitted to explain your opinion about a given transaction, others are permitted to disagree with that opinion and explain why. I understand that it can be frustrating to have your opinion criticized, but I encourage you to not take things too personally and recognize that we're all just fans talking about the sport we love, and that it's OK if some of them disagree with you about something. I appreciate your concern btw, but I'll soldier on I was touching on sometimes things might get to a point of agreeing to disagree, instead of pages of back and forth over the same topic. It starts to look like opining and/or complaing just for the sake of it.
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 22:06:09 GMT -5
I'll agree if you can concede it's hard to put much stock in a guy who was pitching for a team way out of the race with seemingly no drive. Pitching on fumes when his season should have been shut down. It was obvious he was physically spent, and probably emotionally spent too The physically spent stuff is a reasonable point, but I'm not sure the "team was out of the race" and "emotionally spent" stuff is worth much. I mean, Ranaudo was making his major league debut, so I can't imagine he was just mailing it in and going through the motions. Is robbie ross an upgrade or even a replacement for the type of producton and value Burke gave us in the situatons he was put in? Again, I think you're really underating Badenhop. He was worth 1.0 fWAR and 1.8 rWAR last year, which would be in roughly the top 40 or so relievers in any given year. That's pretty damn great production that many of us took for granted. Ross has had similar seasons in the recent past: he put up 1.1 fWAR and 1.9 rWAR in 2012 and 0.8 fWAR and 1.2 rWAR in his two full seasons as a reliever in 2012 and 2013. Even knocking that down some because of his struggles last year, getting that sort of production from a 25-year-old on a pre-arb contract with four years of team control is pretty valuable. It's certainly not something you can just pluck off the street, like you and others are implying. you may have misunderstood me, I was praising Badenhop for the way he came into games and did his thing on cue. No matter the hitter, men on base, score etc. I ws implying it's hard to find a guy like Burke who provided us with a binkie in the 5th,6th,7th, even 8th inning. I certainly did not take Burke for granTed and was hoping beyond hope he'd be back after '14. I may have sounded like I was saying relievers can be plucked off the street, I was trying to get at the fact that 8 months ago ranaudo was being talked about as one of the centerpieces in a deal that would yield a much higher return of ML experience. When I equated ross to breslow, it was to the better version. I just feel we have several in house options for RHH situations, or even the chips to deal for someone on a higher level than ross. I also btw am high on Layne. Very unique skillset, and pitch mix/windup. I'm Of the mind he's more than a left on left only guy.
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 21:54:41 GMT -5
Personally, a bulldog mentality in the Jake Peavy mold. Which will win him favor with his teammates and us fans. The bettee infield defense of cpurse will help, and he's trending upward it looks like, almost in the porcello mold (I don't claim Miley to be Rick porcello). I am always wary however, of pitchers coming from facing the Padres and pitcheese for three years. I'm sure the Dodgers and rockie offenses cancel that ouT somewhat. I look for him to be everything we wanted and hoped double to be. That reliable lefty who doesn't walk people incessantly and goes after guys, given his good pitch mix and knowledge of good strikes and bad strikes, good balls, etc. Vasquez may assist his slightly below average walk rate. The media market may affect him, but it seems like it's so difficult to judge players coming from that coast/league to bostons. Look at the Nomar, arroyo, beckett and Peavy resurrections as of late.
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 21:30:49 GMT -5
So unless Ranaudo takes "huge steps", not a couple steps, or even a step (like not gassing out in triple A before his Major league cup of coffee thus ending his career) ill take that as winning 15 games, 200 innings, learns the gyroball, etc. He's out of baseball? He's released? Are you talking about on your Ps3 or have you forgotten about the NL bottom dwellers. Slight exaggeration, but not much. If he continues to walk more batters than he strikes out and his only good pitch doesn't continue to get hit at a 96.3% rate in the strike zone, he won't be in the major leagues. can we include the quality start in NY in their pennant race in front of his family, in this incredibly small MLB sample size too? His track record in triple a wasn't getting his breaking ball hit 96 times out of 100. He wouldn't have won the aaa pitcher of the year. You know, some of those guys he faced played in the show and some go on to play there, some go on to star in the show. I swear it feels like sometimes people try to gag opinions with pillows in the night just for fun. Thought this was a give and take kinda site, not a hierarchy of the right opinions?
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 21:23:06 GMT -5
I believe they are viewing Ross as a solution to face right handed batters based on his splits. They are basically replacing Badenhop with him. this was where my issue was. Is robbie ross an upgrade or even a replacement for the type of producton and value Burke gave us in the situatons he was put in?
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 21:16:02 GMT -5
I stand corrected, he had a great season his rookie year, and a good one his sophomore. However, what I was I was trying to point out that it seems his calling card is the groundball, that's all people can talk about. Hes not a lefty specialist. He's not a setup guy, he's a guy with average stuff getting outs with groundballs. And you caught something I missed on the BaBIP/GB thing. which is the reason Badenhop gives up his fair share of hits. My concern is there's no sense of stability in any of his statlines that im looking at. The walk rate from last year scares me, as when teams see a pitcher enough times they start to lay off his pitchers pitches and take the walks, also the 7 HBP in 70 IP?. All that could be being in the rotation, but he spent years in the rotation in the minors, about 250 IP to be exact and performed quite while albeit in A ball. My point was I see no consistency between his two good years (IE his GO/AO) and you mentioned velocity, but does that small of an uptick really mean something? I just don't see an upgrade over a guy like Badenhop or an Albers if you want to hit the time machine It's hard to put much stock in a season where he went back and forth between starting and relieving. Especially as a 24/25 year old. I'll agree if you can concede it's hard to put much stock in a guy who was pitching for a team way out of the race with seemingly no drive. Pitching on fumes when his season should have been shut down. It was obvious he was physically spent, and probably emotionally spent too. I just don't see ross doing something significant in the al east, it's just an opinion, and it's really only based on being a nerd on the ol' MLB package. it's just an opinion
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 21:13:45 GMT -5
...His only good season was his rookie season,... Say what? His FIP, K/9, and BB/9 were all better in his second season. Let's stay reality-based, please. Both his first two years were good, his third much less so. I don't think the higher BABIP explains it either. As someone else pointed out, this may be the Sox buying low on a decent left-hander who had a down year. That seems like a smart gamble to me, but it is a gamble. It does answer the call for more left-handed relief pitching, something that was missing. As for the value of Ranaudo and what he might bring in lower prospects... why? Does the team just keep loading up on minor leaguers? It's not as if they don't have talent down there. Why more sweepstakes tickets when you can buildout the team for the upcoming season? This is all about the opportunity cost for doing just that. you might not have read earlier, I admitted I stood corrected in a previous discussion on this topic. He was great his rookie year, good his sophomore year although the groundball rate plummetted. Although I never mentioned anything about stockpiling chips, I'll touch on what I said about that earlier too. I feel as though they could have let him dominate triple A again and have him be a piece in a bigger deal than for robbie ross, who while serviceable, I'm not sold on. I feel like ranaudo and some other chips could have netted us a much larger piece. Just an opinion though. I believe I stayed somewhat reality based even in being wrong, he had a higher whip, gave up more hits per 9, even hit more batters his second year,he also finished over a half dozen or so, what would be considered "blowouts" just from looking at his game log on espn in 2013. Just putting a frame of reference to the type of situations he was pitching in
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 21:09:15 GMT -5
I stand corrected, he had a great season his rookie year, and a good one his sophomore. However, what I was I was trying to point out that it seems his calling card is the groundball, that's all people can talk about. Hes not a lefty specialist. He's not a setup guy, he's a guy with average stuff getting outs with groundballs. And you caught something I missed on the BaBIP/GB thing. which is the reason Badenhop gives up his fair share of hits. My concern is there's no sense of stability in any of his statlines that im looking at. The walk rate from last year scares me, as when teams see a pitcher enough times they start to lay off his pitchers pitches and take the walks, also the 7 HBP in 70 IP?. All that could be being in the rotation, but he spent years in the rotation in the minors, about 250 IP to be exact and performed quite while albeit in A ball. My point was I see no consistency between his two good years (IE his GO/AO) and you mentioned velocity, but does that small of an uptick really mean something? I just don't see an upgrade over a guy like Badenhop or an Albers if you want to hit the time machine It's hard to put much stock in a season where he went back and forth between starting and relieving. Especially as a 24/25 year old. I was only pointing out that there are other places to get plain relievers, rather than a potential #3. I don't see much in Ross, it's an opinion
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 11:08:39 GMT -5
The move makes sense in the short term. But I highly doubt Ross will be anything more than a Breslow-type for a couple seasons and leave. His only good season was his rookie season, thats4 years ago now. The ERA, GB/FB, walk rate HBP, ERA, FIP everything has fluctuated. Blame it on Pierzinski all you want, but AJ never really got the "pitcher stat killer" moniker before Boston. There goes 4 years of grooming our #1 pick, Triple A pitcher of the year award winner and selling low on him because he gassed out, or as someone else alluded to earlier "selling low before they get to Doubie or WMB level". Which I think is a stretch to compare "renaudo" to WMB or Doubie, as Ranaudo didn't get 3 or 4 years of opportunities He was pretty good in 2013 as well, where he actually posted a better fWAR, FIP, BB%, K%, and higher fastball velocity than in his rookie season. His GB% tanked, but it didn't really hurt his ability to keep the ball in his park. It looks like a 52 point BABIP spike is what led to the high ERA. It is a bit interesting that the GB% drop coincided with a BABIP increase. So his last good season was really 2 years ago, and it was the last one where he wasn't being jerked between the bullpen and rotation. I stand corrected, he had a great season his rookie year, and a good one his sophomore. However, what I was I was trying to point out that it seems his calling card is the groundball, that's all people can talk about. Hes not a lefty specialist. He's not a setup guy, he's a guy with average stuff getting outs with groundballs. And you caught something I missed on the BaBIP/GB thing. which is the reason Badenhop gives up his fair share of hits. My concern is there's no sense of stability in any of his statlines that im looking at. The walk rate from last year scares me, as when teams see a pitcher enough times they start to lay off his pitchers pitches and take the walks, also the 7 HBP in 70 IP?. All that could be being in the rotation, but he spent years in the rotation in the minors, about 250 IP to be exact and performed quite while albeit in A ball. My point was I see no consistency between his two good years (IE his GO/AO) and you mentioned velocity, but does that small of an uptick really mean something? I just don't see an upgrade over a guy like Badenhop or an Albers if you want to hit the time machine
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 10:55:12 GMT -5
If Renaudo takes another step forward this year, becomes a solid looking 3-4, he wouldn't get a Margot who's 3 years away? Nonsense. If he doesn't take huge steps forward (at the age of 25), he's not in the major leagues and gets released for nothing. And spell his name right. And aren't you the one saying prospect huggers suck? They did what you want and traded one. So unless Ranaudo takes "huge steps", not a couple steps, or even a step (like not gassing out in triple A before his Major league cup of coffee thus ending his career) ill take that as winning 15 games, 200 innings, learns the gyroball, etc. He's out of baseball? He's released? Are you talking about on your Ps3 or have you forgotten about the NL bottom dwellers.
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 10:23:20 GMT -5
The move makes sense in the short term. But I highly doubt Ross will be anything more than a Breslow-type for a couple seasons and leave. His only good season was his rookie season, thats4 years ago now. The ERA, GB/FB, walk rate HBP, ERA, FIP everything has fluctuated. Blame it on Pierzinski all you want, but AJ never really got the "pitcher stat killer" moniker before Boston. There goes 4 years of grooming our #1 pick, Triple A pitcher of the year award winner and selling low on him because he gassed out, or as someone else alluded to earlier "selling low before they get to Doubie or WMB level". Which I think is a stretch to compare "renaudo" to WMB or Doubie, as Ranaudo didn't get 3 or 4 years of opportunities
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 4:57:15 GMT -5
Seems like a lot to give up for essentially a lefty specialist if one buys into the splits as the reason for the move You have this backwards-- Ross has smaller-than-average splits, which is to say that he's better vs. RHH and worse versus LHH than the average left-handed relief pitcher. Splits included, it seems as though Ross has regressed every year. Yes last year they moved him to the rotation and back, but even his gb/fb haven't been consistent. The cost control is nice, I just feel like they could have let him dominate AAA again and made him a centerpiece for a bigger deal, because he wont be in Bostons rotation, but he could have netted a larger returm from a NL team in a bigger park
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 4:26:15 GMT -5
Did I miss some sort of cool kids thing here? Heaven forbid anyone here should be misconstrued as "cool." One suggestion though - It would help if you add your response to a quote below the quote box itself. Otherwise, it can be hard to tell who said what. Welcome to the show, by the way.
I see on my last post where I strayed, but about which I was referring, did I say something inflammatory/repetitive/otherwise useless? As a longtime lurker, and rarrre poster I appreciate the welcome
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 3:09:31 GMT -5
Ahem. Did I miss some sort of cool kids thing here?
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 1:04:19 GMT -5
What would have Webster, De La Rosa, and Ranuado earned a year ago? Opinion: Prospect huggers suck. The majority of these kids fail, anyway, so you really need to drop that kick. Counterpoint: Mookie Betts. Forgive me for posting twice back to back like this, but since Jmei is always right it seems, I have to agree. I live in Nats Country, and im here to tell you, they don't want Owens really, Swihart is eh with my baseball friends and MASN, but Mookie Betts man. They all want Mooks. Friends/fans have told me they'd give up any of their starters for a deal that included Mookie as a centerpiece. This may be because I've told them he's the second coming or they actually know their Stuff. But Either way, unless Mike Trout is playing left field for us in a trade, in an alternate universe of course Or they're offering Kershaw (who I think is a tad overrated). We do whatever it takes to keep Mookie and *gulp" hope he somehow doesn't cross paths with Bora$
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 28, 2015 0:41:48 GMT -5
As a guy who was in the AR camp and not afraid to stick his helmet above the cover I think this as well as the RDLR/Webster trade could look bad in a couple years. Ranaudo didn't dominate triple A for most of the season bc of a fringe fastball and change and good curve. The two times I saw him in Pawtucket early this summer (Grandparents live in Winthrop and its a great excuse to see them) he was flashing 93-95 with a change that resulted in whiffs or weak contact. I saw his ceiling as a chris young/ Kevin Millwood type. Granted this was 50 ish innings into his season, but I saw some dominant stuff there. We've all seen Robbie Ross on MLB package, he's a guy who throws 90-94 with a decent little slider, and I liked that he pitched like he did in Arlington, I just believe that if anything, Ranaudo could have been packaged together to get us a bigger piece. We sold pretty low on the best pitcher in triple A last year and it looks like people are just blindly saying "great job BC"
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 7, 2015 17:49:36 GMT -5
Would any of you guys on your moral high horse like to provide us with a scientific study proving a direct correlation between steroid use and being better at baseball, or should we just keep taking your opinion as fact? Yes Bonds cheated and it helped him, did it give him the ability that separated him from everyone else? To wait 3 at bats, maybe 3 days for a pitch to hit and consistently barrel it u? "he cheated so much more than others" how could one possibly know that? Could it be that every person that cheated took their cycles and it helped the elite do things thought magical? While helping Jay gibbons hit 30 bombs one year and Brad Fullmer be somewhat productive for a couple years and so on and so forth. It's not like all the other PED users wouldnt cross an invisible line while Bonds did
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 7, 2015 17:10:26 GMT -5
Oops, years long lurker with a username for however long. Behind Tazawa things obviously get murky, and people underrate the value Miller brought to this team even before this past breakout year. I can't see Workman being more than an average reliever, until he proves otherwise. Matt Barnes if he ever recreates that parachute changeup he pulled out against the O's (Maybe yanks?) I can see being a good 7th inning guy. My issue is I'm in the camp that was actually impressee with Layne. A side arming lefty that has 3 fastballs essentially with a decent breaking pitch is more than a loogy, but less than a shutdown guy. With Varvaro a st lookaround, and breslow scaring me. I'd like to see the sox go after a power arm. Miller, bard when he was on, and delcarmen were important parts of winning teams
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Post by m1keyboots on Jul 9, 2014 0:14:42 GMT -5
Personally I'm not ready to give up on Bradley as the solution in center solely based on his range/arm/minor league splits. Does the front office think Reddick and Murphy or Moss even played better bc they were out of a Bodice uniform? Or because they were dumped for relievers and stopgaps over the past 5 years.
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Post by m1keyboots on Jul 8, 2014 23:48:53 GMT -5
It's easy to hate on Peavy for being not very good this year, but after reading his words tonight, you have to give the man some props. He's handling this situation exceptionally well, and he clearly loved playing in Boston. Hopefully he pitches well whereever he gets moved to and helps that team down the stretch and in the playoffs. . I have to agree. I believe he still has value as an average major league starter, and has shown the ability to be a 6/7 inning--2/3 earned runs guy, and he would benefit undoubtedly from what Stl does with its pitching staff. That being said, I think he plays his heart out, and has been a genuine class act. I won't miss the blowup outings but his presence surely will be missed
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