|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 23, 2021 21:30:41 GMT -5
This is the type of inning where I take a 15 minute break.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 23, 2021 21:16:58 GMT -5
I've said this quite a few times, but I am all for overpaying people when we get their 27-33 seasons. If I had to prioritize, I'd sign Devers before Xander (but I'd prefer both if we don't have to sign Xander more than 6 years).
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 23, 2021 21:03:21 GMT -5
Home Plate umpire has been really good tonight Way to jinx it, that ball looked slightly below the zone.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 23, 2021 21:00:02 GMT -5
Hernandez has probably done the biggest turnaround that i can remember for a player on the club. Great addition....big props to Bloom and Cora for sticking with him. I was thinking the same just now. We were all pretty hard on Cora putting him in the leadoff spot and he's really rewarding Cora for that leap of faith.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 23, 2021 19:45:07 GMT -5
Come on fellas, give it at least a half hour before shitting on the world series champ that just walked off the field crying with an injury. Well, to be fair, I was commenting before I found out he got hurt. Still, he's always hurt minus one year. He obviously doesn't suck, but near 4 ERAs and roughly 120-130 innings isn't really anything bedazzling to me, but maybe the word "mediocre" comes off more as aggressive and suggestive that he sucks. Like when you say someone is overrated. I think Derek Jeter was overrated. He's still a HoFer. Without rehashing the debate, and I think you made the point yourself, while near-4 ERAs might not be bedazzling it's still above average. Starters ERA in 2019 and 2020 were 4.54 and 4.46 respectively, albeit this year is a bit better at 4.21. I think the better question is how much are you willing to pay for that and how long, but we can flip that conversation over to the specific thread.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 23, 2021 17:24:32 GMT -5
I really like him in the bulk reliever playoff role. I don't think he's ready this year to go through the order a third time, so you're looking at his cap right now as a 5-inning starter.
I get excited thinking about Houck and Whitlock in the pen. We're watching managers more and more willing to have a quick hook on a starter too, so one value they can provide is coming in and bridge us from the 4th to 6th innings to the specialists. Or they can follow starters like ERod who just can't seem to get through 5 innings without being already at 80-90 pitches and take us to Barnes. Even more valuable if we tax the pen the night before.
Given that we have a strong list of starters already, putting them at 3-4 innings per game every 2-3 games feels like a better usage than 5 innings every 4 games.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 23, 2021 13:22:25 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 23, 2021 13:08:17 GMT -5
Where is this "Perez is regressing" and "Perez falls off in the second half" coming from? Am I missing something? Because stat-wise this is not supported. His 1st/2nd half career splits are identical. Same IP (535 to 542), meaning he wasn't hurt more often and the managers didn't feel the need to "lighten his load". Same FIP (4.45 to 4.56). Same xFIP (4.63 to 4.52). Same wOBA (.333 to .342). The only significant anomaly is the sh**ty metric called ERA (4.30 to 5.01). Right now I don't see regression. I see some bad starts from our 5th starter...that happens. I agree with gregblossersbelly, let Richards and Perez fight for a starter spot. Here is Tomase's case for Richards to the pen, Perez stays in the rotation: www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/chris-sale-could-replace-garrett-richards-red-sox-rotationAgree with the majority of this, especially the take against long-term generalizations. The regression comment in my mind is specifically about his year-to-date actual results in the scoreboard (i.e. ERA) have outperformed all the metrics this year. His ERA has been in the 3.5 to 4 range when FIP/xFIP/xERA are in the 4.5 to 5 range. So we should expect normal Perez for the rest of the year rather than 2021 Perez.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 23, 2021 9:22:12 GMT -5
The Spiders would have been a cool name, but baseball purists like us are in the minority when it comes to the marketing. You can see they wanted to retain their logo with the "ians".
Honestly, I don't really have a reaction one way or the other so I guess I'm in the "meh" camp. My only thought when seeing it come through was "well that was quicker than the Washington Football Team".
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 22, 2021 23:11:33 GMT -5
Seriously though why did Plawecki bat and field 1B ahead of Franchy? I can maybe see that they thought it was worth a lot for Duran to pinch run for the tying run in the 9th
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 22, 2021 22:55:57 GMT -5
Not a bad first game for Mayer to see in Fenway.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 22, 2021 22:52:23 GMT -5
Oh man, I'm so glad Eck is calling this game
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 22, 2021 17:59:16 GMT -5
I used to get annoyed by the whole "JD doesn't care" narrative and how ridiculous it was that people were down on him because he didn't get emotional, but then I realized that JD likely doesn't care that people think this way.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 21, 2021 21:47:50 GMT -5
Wow just looked it up and vlad jr is slugging .813 at home .533 on road. .533 is still extremely good but .813 is elite type of stuff. I like vlad Jr a lot but let's hope getting back into the rogers center in Toronto gets him closer to that .533 range and the blue jays offense slows down up there since I don't fear their pitching. Actually how many times as a player had a .813 slugging with out steroids? The ball park is obviously a band box that is inflating numbers. That's at home over slightly more than half a season, so there's still a lot of volatility and that could drift down pretty easily. 700+ at home is still elite but not ungodly. Aaron Judge last year in the Bronx had an .857 slugging and over a full season in 2017 he slugged .725. Ohtani's at .712 right now. Trout's basically averaged .650 at home since 2017.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 21, 2021 20:51:49 GMT -5
After yet another Dalbec strikeout and Chavis swinging at a 3-0 pitch, let's hope there's something to this speculation.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 21, 2021 20:07:29 GMT -5
I'm not sold on rushing to sign Vazquez. Definitely pick up the option, but he's been consistently bad each month which would make me want to buy some time to see if he can show that he's not impacted by the 2021 baseball. He hasn't had one of his typical hot streaks yet this year. His 2019 and 2020 seasons far exceeded his xWOBA, likely due to these streaks, but this year his wOBA is back in line with his xWOBA, which is only slightly worse than his career numbers.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 21, 2021 15:24:15 GMT -5
Regarding Bello, is he eligible or does he need to play in the Dominican Winter League?
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 20, 2021 21:16:17 GMT -5
Stephen Scott with a walkoff 2-out hit for Salem to win the game.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 20, 2021 17:16:42 GMT -5
I would say more than 35-40%. 35% success is just an OPS of 700, and I would think you'd want an OPS over 1.000 to get the analytics folks to seriously consider taking the "buy down" option, so 50%+ success?
But for the player to truly buy in, I would imagine they'd want a much higher ratio.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 20, 2021 16:57:48 GMT -5
I’m curious and I couldn’t answer this going back more than a couple years. Has Portland (or the system in general) had a game with this much draw to it before? I’m trying to think of a major star rehabbing or maybe the first game at a level for a top prospect but I can’t think of anything that tops these circumstances. Chris Sale making his first rehab start (that people can/will really attend in large numbers) coming back from TJ to give the 1st place Red Sox a late season surge? That’s hard to top. Am I missing anything? This reminds me of when I was in AR in the 90's when Fernando Valenzuela did a rehab in Little Rock. They not only sold out the stadium, they set up a rope around the warning track for people to stand so they could get more fans in. If the ball bounced into the fans on the warning track it was a ground rule double. That's a great story, a throwback to the games of the 1900s and 1910s.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 19, 2021 21:13:37 GMT -5
Well he was batting .170/.299/.393 as recently as last Sunday. He's brought that up to .211/.333/.461 with what a week that could get him player of the week so the line looks better.
It's a strange line though, tons of IsoD and IsoP. It's crazy to think a guy batting .170 a week ago now has an .800 OPS.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 19, 2021 20:34:50 GMT -5
Comping Maddux because he's a soft-throwing righty is one thing, but it always gets interpreted as player X has hall-of-fame potential and that's why folks push back on the Maddux comp.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 19, 2021 0:04:41 GMT -5
There's also prestige in being the #1 draft pick, probably worth enough to take the 6.5M at number 1 vs. the 6.66M slot at number 4.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 18, 2021 20:34:32 GMT -5
It's been a long time since we've seen the dumpster fire gameday threads. I guess they've finally hit a downturn in play, which just makes the last 90 games of consistency all the more impressive.
Knowing this team they'll rebound with 5 of the next 6 or 4 of the next 6 and end up going 6-4 or 5-5 for games 91-100.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 18, 2021 20:04:52 GMT -5
I don't think I've seen this posted anywhere but it was announced a few weeks ago that the Triple A seasons were extended to October 3rd and the first half/second half structure of the lower leagues was eliminated, at least for this season. Playoffs will occur in the AA, High A, and Low A leagues while AAA will just crown a champion premier-league style. I'm guessing they decided it was better to give all teams get an additional 5 games of revenue. www.milb.com/news/playoffs-return-to-minor-league-baseball
|
|