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First 10 Games After the Break...
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Post by Guidas on Jul 15, 2013 17:11:57 GMT -5
The first 10 games out of the break will give this team a decided chance to put some significant distance on other teams in AL East. It runs NYY (3 Pettite, Kuroda, Sabathia), TAM (4 Moore, Hernandez, Price, Hellickson), @ BAL (3 Tillman, Hammel, Feldman). Win those series and they'll be up at least 4.5 on Tampa, 5.5 on Baltimore and 7.0 on NYY. Go 10-0 and it will become very tough for anyone to catch them. Pancake and they are suddenly struggling for the wild card. Also, only 3 games with Tampa the rest of the year after that series (but 9 more with Balt), so perhaps even more important with regard to the Rays. I think the move for Thorton now rather than waiting a few weeks to see who else shook out closer to the deadline shows the front office is equally aware that this is an important stretch coming up.
Like everyone here I am aware that all the games add up to 162, a win's a win and all that, BUT this game is played by human beings, and given how this year has gone, I'm have a very nonsabermetric hunch that this stretch may set the tone for this team (barring a catastrophic injury) and the AL East for the rest of the season. Anyone else agree - and anyone care to make a prediction?
I'll go 7-3 despite Tampa getting Price back and us having no Buchholz. We've been BBIP lucky vs. Tampa and BBIP unlucky vs. Baltimore so far this year (BONUS: I think NYY will be 10 games or more out of first by the time the Sox leave Baltimore on Sun, July 28).
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Post by mainesox on Jul 15, 2013 17:35:42 GMT -5
I completely agree with the importance of the upcoming stretch, so I don't really have anything to add there, but as far as predictions I'll go 6-4 (take the Yankees and Os series, and split it TB series). Honestly, as long as they're .500 over this stretch I wouldn't call it a disappointment - we've had a rough time against the Os of late, so I could see us losing that series.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 15, 2013 17:45:23 GMT -5
Lester vs. Sabathia, our #5 vs their ace... sounds pretty efficient.
Anyway it will mostly come down to whether the offense starts clicking again or not; 6 runs in 3 games vs. the A's was not really up to snuff.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 16, 2013 0:15:34 GMT -5
5-5.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 16, 2013 7:05:21 GMT -5
Lester vs. Sabathia, our #5 vs their ace... sounds pretty efficient. Anyway it will mostly come down to whether the offense starts clicking again or not; 6 runs in 3 games vs. the A's was not really up to snuff. I do not think you can really say that two games is much of a funk for the offense. The offense scored 34 runs in the four previous games. |
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 16, 2013 7:14:43 GMT -5
Fair enough, it really was a small sample size... I just have some recency bias in that regard.  |
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 16, 2013 7:23:09 GMT -5
Sabathia has been nearly as mediocre as Lester this year - if he were really the best pitcher on the Yankees (and if Lester really was the 5th best pitcher on the Sox), that would say more about the Sox and Yankees than about Lester and CC. This is the second straight year that Kuroda has been the better pitcher.
Also, I'm not so worried about the Red Sox offense. Oakland gives up the fewest runs in the league, and the Coliseum is a tough place to hit. While some regression is coming for Saltalamacchia and Iglesias, the team still leads the AL in runs scored and in OBP. Their .350 OBP is 29 points higher than the league average and 43 points higher than those silly ol' Yankees.
I don't know that the Yankees will be under .500 at that point because they are still seven games over, but it is a brutal stretch coming up for them. Three in Boston, four in Texas (including a day game which actually makes me feel bad for them - there should never be a mid-week day game in Arlington during July), and then home for three against Tampa, all without a day off. It's a big stretch for Boston, but it's a potential season-breaker for the Yanks. I can't predict a 1-9 that would send them under .500, because Ron Washington is definitely going to screw up at least one game in a four game series, and Kuroda is going to pitch twice.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 16, 2013 7:48:38 GMT -5
Yankees by xFIP: Sabathia 3.53 Kuroda 3.74 Pettitte 3.97 Phelps 4.06 Hughes 4.29
Red Sox by xFIP: Buchholz 3.22 Lackey 3.27 Doubront 3.91 Lester 4.02 Dempster 4.22
So OK, our slumping #4 vs. their Ace then.
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Post by hammerhead on Jul 16, 2013 8:21:20 GMT -5
Well you guys are looking forward, I'll look back on the first half. Some things that can be said about this team so far:
1. Ben C did a much better job build a 40 man roster than I think any of us thought. This is a team of 40 more so than it's a team of 25. Key contributions from Holt, Workman, Snyder, Iglesias, De La Torre, Wilson, Aceves (now estranged.. or simply strange), Steven Wright and some minor contributions from Webster, Diaz, Mortenson and Jackie Bradley have proven that the depth is pretty damn good.
2. The whole character thing which I always thought was over-rated has been important. It starts with Ferrell , but guys like Gomes, Victorino and Uehara have brought this team together.
3. The bench has been really good, Carp and Gomes have really been nice 4th OF.
4. The pitching staff has been good with Lackey better than we could have ever imagined. Solid contributions from Doubront and Dempster (yes he's struggled lately) and bounce back season's from Lester (more good than bad) and Buchholz.
5. The kids have been good. More major league debuts have occurred than I can ever remember, most of them solid.
6. Brock Holt and Iglesias seem to be solid major league players no matter how you slice it (utility or starting).
7. Papi and Pedroia have been as good as they've ever been. Nava is having a career year and Ellsbury while not having the same power as 2011 is a very valuable lead off hitter.
8. The Bullpen has been good even with the closer controversy. Tazawa and Uehara have been damn good.
For the second half (unofficial I know) I think it's imperative that Buchholz gets healthy, Lester completely rights the ship and everyone stays healthy.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 16, 2013 8:42:34 GMT -5
Well you guys are looking forward, I'll look back on the first half. Some things that can be said about this team so far: 1. Ben C did a much better job build a 40 man roster than I think any of us thought. This is a team of 40 more so than it's a team of 25. Key contributions from Holt, Workman, Snyder, Iglesias, De La Torre, Wilson, Aceves (now estranged.. or simply strange), Steven Wright and some minor contributions from Webster, Diaz, Mortenson and Jackie Bradley have proven that the depth is pretty damn good. 2. The whole character thing which I always thought was over-rated has been important. It starts with Ferrell , but guys like Gomes, Victorino and Uehara have brought this team together. 3. The bench has been really good, Carp and Gomes have really been nice 4th OF. 4. The pitching staff has been good with Lackey better than we could have ever imagined. Solid contributions from Doubront and Dempster (yes he's struggled lately) and bounce back season's from Lester (more good than bad) and Buchholz. 5. The kids have been good. More major league debuts have occurred than I can ever remember, most of them solid. 6. Brock Holt and Iglesias seem to be solid major league players no matter how you slice it (utility or starting). 7. Papi and Pedroia have been as good as they've ever been. Nava is having a career year and Ellsbury while not having the same power as 2011 is a very valuable lead off hitter. 8. The Bullpen has been good even with the closer controversy. Tazawa and Uehara have been damn good. For the second half (unofficial I know) I think it's imperative that Buchholz gets healthy, Lester completely rights the ship and everyone stays healthy. One thing I think you missed is the high quality defense this team plays. I think we could have the best defense in the MLB. Drew, Iglesias, Pedroia, and Victorino (Bradley on time he played) are all the best or close to it defensively at their positions. Ellsbury covers a lot of ground in CF. Napoli, Salty, Middlebrooks, Ross all have been average to above average. Think this has a lot to do with the success of our season so far. |
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Post by bsout2 on Jul 16, 2013 8:51:24 GMT -5
Well the pitching match-ups will all change when the Sox pickup Garza.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 16, 2013 9:25:21 GMT -5
Well the pitching match-ups will all change when the Sox pickup Garza. At what cost? Theo has a 1st rounder if he keeps him. Gonna have to be a good package. Not scraps. I'm guessing he wants pitching. Start with Henry Owens and add a player or two. |
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Post by semperfisox on Jul 16, 2013 9:36:53 GMT -5
Well the pitching match-ups will all change when the Sox pickup Garza. Not gonna happen. |
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 16, 2013 9:52:01 GMT -5
If we trade for Garza I am going to eat my own head....
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Post by bsout2 on Jul 16, 2013 10:04:37 GMT -5
Well the pitching match-ups will all change when the Sox pickup Garza. Not gonna happen. I would like to see the Red Sox move forward with what they have. But Henry and Co. might think a playoff rotation of Buccholz, Lackey, and Garza would be enough to have a real shot at the WS. In that case I could see the team dealing some real talent in order to acquire Garza if they believe that is the piece that will make them a WS team. The Red Sox are still a business and if you give the front office a slight chance to go from MLB joke in 2012 to World Series champion in 2013, I don't think it's incomprehensible to think Ben would be pressured to go get Garza no matter the cost. |
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Post by semperfisox on Jul 16, 2013 10:14:13 GMT -5
I would like to see the Red Sox move forward with what they have. But Henry and Co. might think a playoff rotation of Buccholz, Lackey, and Garza would be enough to have a real shot at the WS. In that case I could see the team dealing some real talent in order to acquire Garza if they believe that is the piece that will make them a WS team. The Red Sox are still a business and if you give the front office a slight chance to go from MLB joke in 2012 to World Series champion in 2013, I don't think it's incomprehensible to think Ben would be pressured to go get Garza no matter the cost. Theo knows our farm. We're not going to give up the prospects it would take because we'd have to way overpay. He's not a #1, and he might get a team to give up prospects as if he was one. |
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 16, 2013 10:20:45 GMT -5
I would like to see the Red Sox move forward with what they have. But Henry and Co. might think a playoff rotation of Buccholz, Lackey, and Garza would be enough to have a real shot at the WS. In that case I could see the team dealing some real talent in order to acquire Garza if they believe that is the piece that will make them a WS team. The Red Sox are still a business and if you give the front office a slight chance to go from MLB joke in 2012 to World Series champion in 2013, I don't think it's incomprehensible to think Ben would be pressured to go get Garza no matter the cost. Theo knows our farm. We're not going to give up the prospects it would take because we'd have to way overpay. He's not a #1, and he might get a team to give up prospects as if he was one. To play Devil's Advocate. Theo can ask BC for a list of players he would deal. If another team doesn't knock his socks off. He has a good idea of where they stack up compared to what Sox have to offer. I agree. We're not going to overpay. But, if nobody does. Then, our odds might actually go up since he has a better idea of what he'd be getting. |
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Jul 16, 2013 10:28:57 GMT -5
And I would expect Napoli to have a bigger 2nd half as well to remedy Iggy's decline. The offense won't be a problem.
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Post by semperfisox on Jul 16, 2013 10:29:23 GMT -5
Theo knows our farm. We're not going to give up the prospects it would take because we'd have to way overpay. He's not a #1, and he might get a team to give up prospects as if he was one. To play Devil's Advocate. Theo can ask BC for a list of players he would deal. If another team doesn't knock his socks off. He has a good idea of where they stack up compared to what Sox have to offer. I agree. We're not going to overpay. But, if nobody does. Then, our odds might actually go up since he has a better idea of what he'd be getting. There are maybe 4-5 teams looking to add Garza IMO. I think someone will give up a lot to get him. I don't want to give up a Ranaudo or Cecchini to get him. |
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 16, 2013 10:32:48 GMT -5
I would like to see the Red Sox move forward with what they have. But Henry and Co. might think a playoff rotation of Buccholz, Lackey, and Garza would be enough to have a real shot at the WS. There's no guarantee, though, that we would be better off than with Buchholz, Lackey and Doubront. And if Lester turns it around it could become moot as we would be going with Buchholz, Lackey and Lester. The only real reason to get Garza would be as Buchholz insurance. If the FO/Owners think they can win a WS with Lackey, Garza and Doubront, then we might see a trade happen. |
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Post by okin15 on Jul 16, 2013 10:53:48 GMT -5
If we trade for Garza I am going to eat my own head.... Agree, though it might allow us to see how Lester would fare in the 'pen going forward. Is that a viable option, or will he return to top 3 form? |
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Post by hammerhead on Jul 16, 2013 13:29:23 GMT -5
The only way I see this team trading for Garza is if Buchholz is out for the year. Or more than a month.
I don't want to give up Owens or Cecchini or Rubby or any combination of the top 5 or 10 for a rental of Garza. I don't think he's a big enough upgrade over what we have, he's also injury prone and is having a hot streak. He'll regress in the AL East on top of that. Plus he's a dick.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 16, 2013 13:54:24 GMT -5
Meanwhile, assuming no trade, is there any news as to who starts game 5? Would guess Workman has by far the best chances after his good performance before the break, but before that game I was pretty sure their plan was to have Wright start next time around. Dark house would seem to be Britton but I am rather sure he is headed for the pen.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 16, 2013 15:10:20 GMT -5
Correct me if I'm wrong but we get nothing at the end of the year if Garza walks, which I would think reduces his trade value a lot. The Cubs can potentially get a first round pick out of him ( possibly but even that is not guaranteed ). At the same time he is pitching extremely well right now making him a valuable commodity for the pennant race. Do the Yanks have much of a chance to make the playoffs this year without him or someone comparable? I think not. Other teams which are optimized for the playoffs and could use the edge right now might be willing to pull the trigger but what is he really worth beyond enhancing this year's play off chances for some team? I think next to nothing.
At the same time he is costing the Cubs some cash as well over the remainder of this year. I don't think he will end up costing a team someone like a De La Rosa or a Cechinni. It may be worth it for some team but it is clearly a short term rental with no return at the end except possibly a playoff berth. He absolutely could help a team make the playoffs though.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 16, 2013 16:19:50 GMT -5
Theo knows our farm. We're not going to give up the prospects it would take because we'd have to way overpay. He's not a #1, and he might get a team to give up prospects as if he was one. To play Devil's Advocate. Theo can ask BC for a list of players he would deal. If another team doesn't knock his socks off. He has a good idea of where they stack up compared to what Sox have to offer. I agree. We're not going to overpay. But, if nobody does. Then, our odds might actually go up since he has a better idea of what he'd be getting. This. I also think whatever package they offer for Garza, if it includes a Ranaudo or Webster or RDLR then you present the same package - more or less to KC - for Shields and see how they react. Can't hurt to ask. And realistically, none of Owens, Ranaudo, Barnes, Webster, or RDLR project to be more than a #3 starter at this point. Not that a #3 is anything to sneeze at, but would you give up two of those and another non top 10 guy for 1 1/3 years of James Shields? Or do they dangle Doubront and, one of the above thinking that Doubront is at his zenith and KC will never get that much in a draft choice after 2014? Will be interesting to watch. |
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